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  • Originally posted by Toaster2 View Post
    Anyone looking into R0 estimates ? R0 is estimated to be 1.4-2.5 by WHO whereas estimates for H1N1 and seasonal flu are lower. Can it be stopped with this R0 ?
    https://www.infectioncontroltoday.co...llenges-future
    100 Years after the Spanish Flu: Lessons Learned and Challenges for the Future

    Here is an excerpt from the article discussing the R0:

    "To capture the risk of a global pandemic, the model was configured to simulate what would happen if a newly emerged virus—i.e., one in which health systems are not prepared for and likely do not have a vaccine to prevent—appeared in southeast Asia. The model utilized typical SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) dynamics: all individuals were assumed to be susceptible, and immunity to the virus did not wane. The virus was given an R0 (the basic reproductive rate, or the number of secondary infections caused by a typical case) of 2.1. For comparison, seasonal flu has an R0 of 0.9 – 2.1, with a mean of 1.3; the R0 of the 1918-1919 pandemic-causing Spanish flu is estimated to have ranged from 1.4 – 2.8, with a mean of 2. Individuals in the model could travel both locally and by airplane, thereby moving the virus within and across countries. With an initial seeding of about 800 infections, the simulation demonstrated how an unchecked epidemic can very quickly evolve into a pandemic within a wholly susceptible population."
    "I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta

    Comment


    • https://www.infectioncontroltoday.co...llenges-future
      100 Years after the Spanish Flu: Lessons Learned and Challenges for the Future
      Here is an excerpt from the article discussing the R0:
      "To capture the risk of a global pandemic, the model was configured to simulate what would happen if a newly emerged virus—i.e., one in which health systems are not prepared for and likely do not have a vaccine to prevent—appeared in southeast Asia. The model utilized typical SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) dynamics: all individuals were assumed to be susceptible, and immunity to the virus did not wane. The virus was given an R0 (the basic reproductive rate, or the number of secondary infections caused by a typical case) of 2.1.
      For comparison, seasonal flu has an R0 of 0.9 – 2.1, with a mean of 1.3; the R0 of the 1918-1919 pandemic-causing Spanish flu is estimated to have ranged from 1.4 – 2.8, with a mean of 2.
      Individuals in the model could travel both locally and by airplane, thereby moving the virus within and across countries. With an initial seeding of about 800 infections, the simulation demonstrated how an unchecked epidemic can very quickly evolve into a pandemic within a wholly susceptible population."
      That is what I referred to. The R0 estimates of the coronavirus are higher than seasonal flu and comparable to the 1918 strain of flu. What does this mean for containment.SARS also had a high R0 but was contained. Just wondering - and yes, anxious too.

      Comment


      • https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fz7..._3PmysukL/view

        Comment


        • Originally posted by tetano View Post
          I don't find the source of this news


          British and American scholars estimate that more than 190,000 people will be infected with new viral pneumonia after 10 days in Wuhan




          The number of new viral pneumonia infections has continued to rise. Some scholars in the United Kingdom and the United States have calculated that if the epidemic prevention measures are not changed, the number of infected people in Wuhan will increase to more than 190,000 in 10 days. It was found to be because most cases were mild.

          Five scholars from universities such as the University of Lancaster in the United Kingdom, using case data analysis as of Tuesday, believe that Wuhan ’s restrictions on access can only reduce the number of cases of infection outside Wuhan by about 25%. It is estimated that there will be outbreaks in Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu, and Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea also have the opportunity to import cases due to air traffic.

          Scholars estimate that patients infected with the new coronavirus can transmit the virus to 3.8 people on average, more than SARS. They believe that the rapid increase in cases is much higher than SARS or the Middle East respiratory syndrome, and it is estimated that it will be more difficult to control the epidemic.


          https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/compone...6-20200125.htm

          Here it is:



          Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions
          Jonathan M. Read1, Jessica R.E. Bridgen1, Derek A.T. Cummings2, Antonia Ho3, Chris P.Jewell1

          Affiliations:
          1. Centre for Health Informatics, Computing and Statistics, Lancaster Medical School,
          Lancaster University, Lancaster, United Kingdom.
          2. Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida,
          Gainesville, United States of America.
          3. Medical Research Council-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, Glasgow,
          United Kingdom.

          https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fz7..._3PmysukL/view

          Comment


          • Originally posted by BostonRN View Post
            Hello Everyone,

            Watching this closely. Came across this video. Not sure of the accuracy or validity. Would anyone be able to translate? Transcript in comments.

            https://youtu.be/o4rRuEvvC0U
            I tried to find the chinese text on twitter but could not find it, however I found this, BUT I do not know is the translation is correct !!!

            EclipseTheSun
            @EclipseTheSun3

            5 t
            Svarer
            @aniilai
            og
            @telegram
            She says: I'm Jingui, I work for hospital in Wuhan. The government is lying, more than 90,000 people had died in Hubei and throughout the China! The person-to-person base is 1 > 14, meaning one person infects 14. The virus is mutating and spreading explosively.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by theforeigner View Post

              I tried to find the chinese text on twitter but could not find it, however I found this, BUT I do not know is the translation is correct !!!

              EclipseTheSun
              @EclipseTheSun3

              5 t
              Svarer
              @aniilai
              og
              @telegram
              She says: I'm Jingui, I work for hospital in Wuhan. The government is lying, more than 90,000 people had died in Hubei and throughout the China! The person-to-person base is 1 > 14, meaning one person infects 14. The virus is mutating and spreading explosively.



              Here is the you tube address.
              從Telegram上取得的影片 希望大家互相發放出去 讓大家清楚知道疫情

              Comment


              • I find this statement to be very general given we haven’t had any official H2H reported outside of China

                ”He [Cuomo] added that people who feel symptoms "very similar to a common cold" and who are concerned they may have been exposed to this virus, especially if they traveled to the affected zone in China, should follow recommendations to call their health care providers before arriving for treatment.”

                https://www.newsday.com/news/health/...and-1.40963011

                Comment


                • Originally posted by BostonRN View Post




                  Here is the you tube address.
                  從Telegram上取得的影片 希望大家互相發放出去 讓大家清楚知道疫情
                  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQnMM-YNJw8

                  Here is a translation of "Jinhui"'s video message that is posted in the comments below the video, this is the second translation posted:

                  The words of the physician in the film:
                  "My friends and relatives in the family, I am Jinhui. I am still in the epidemic area of ​​Wuhan-Hankou. I ... report to you the current situation in Hubei and even the whole country. There are now more than 90,000 people (infected), what is the chance of this virus being transmitted? That is, after a person is infected, if she is not effectively isolated or treated, he will be transmitted to 14 people around him, then this base is very large. Now is the Spring Festival holiday, the traditional Chinese New Year holiday, relatives, friends and children are brought home to eat dinner together. The situation is special now, and I hope that everyone will not go out, do not party, and do not go to the door (new year). Every year in the Spring Festival, as long as people are safe, everyone can be together anytime, anywhere.


                  I would like to introduce to you the medical supplies of the entire Hubei Province. Now the entire medical system in Wuhan, and the entire medical system in Hubei Province, have passed through our superiors, the health and health committees, and various municipal departments, municipal governments, and provincial governments, and have initiated donations to the society through major media. This material is medical material, such as the goggles I wear, the disposable masks, the disposable gloves I wear, the gowns I wear, and the trousers I wear. This material is particularly tight. Our current medical staff, who have come down from the clinic, are now back on the line. I am now recording this video with everyone on the hot line just to alert everyone. I stress again, don't go out during the Spring Festival holiday! Just stay in your own room! Otherwise, why am I killed in front? !! I do it for my family, my loved ones, and they are healthy. I hope everyone can understand, and I also know that some relatives are not in the group (WeChat group), please those who see my news call each other and inform each other, they must do it! I hope everyone can raise awareness, this is a political task.

                  And report a very bad news, this new type of coronavirus has undergone a second-generation mutation, which means that when the first-generation mutation, we can treat it symptomatically. Then when the second generation mutation occurs, this is terrible! Because its chance of infection is not a disease that is transmitted by one person or one person. Infect 14 people around! Then it is explosive! Hope everyone must keep in mind, do n’t go out, do n’t go out, do n’t party, do n’t have dinner! thank you all. A


                  Comment


                  • Translation:
                    ...Mr. Zhang said that according to information provided by doctors, the disclosure that triggered the widespread viral pneumonia was not all coronaviruses, but other viruses. Coronavirus-associated pneumonia is currently being reported in China: "This virus is too fierce. I am not a coronavirus. Coronavirus patients are reported daily. I am another viral pneumonia. Their coronavirus patients are isolated in another building. Here, all in isolation. "

                    He also disclosed that the top national respiratory disease experts sent by the State Council of China gathered in Wuhan. They have a team who is at the Jinyintan Hospital 24 hours a day. Each case must be consulted and every change must be tracked.

                    According to the report, CCP experts have grasped at least two new viruses that caused the outbreak. But so far, the official has only published the gene sequence of a "new coronavirus" (named "2019-nCoV"), and never disclosed any other new viruses.

                    https://m.secretchina.com/news/gb/2020/01/24/amp920721.html

                    Comment


                    • R0 appears to be 3-4, according to some estimates. This isn't going to be contained by quarantines and isolation like SARS was.

                      The number of actual infections is probably huge. I've done a couple different calculations based on the number of exported cases, and I think we're talking 50k-100k cases already in Wuhan itself, which still is less than a 1% attack rate in the city. If this virus had even a 5% CFR, you'd have about 2000-4000 dead or dying by now.

                      Of course, there's a huge difference between a pandemic at 0.3% CFR and one at 3% CFR.

                      The very low number of discharges is also a little concerning, but I'm assuming that's a precaution to prevent people from spreading the virus. Only 38 discharges total in all of China, of which 28 of them are from the first 41 hospitalized cases.

                      I hope there are samples in Wuhan of pneumonia patients from November and December to test for this virus retroactively. It's possible that this virus didn't jump to humans in that seafood market, but rather that the large crowds gathering in that market resulted in enough cases to draw attention, in much the same was that 2009 H1N1 was only first noticed when it hit large cities like Mexico City and Oaxaca, despite circulating in humans for weeks.

                      Comment


                      • Horrible, horrible, panic inducing news headlines. Really should be ashamed.

                        "Michigan Health Officials Confirm Three Deaths Related To Coronavirus"
                        https://detroit.cbslocal.com/2020/01...-corona-virus/

                        Update: I actually submitted a complaint via their "contact" link in the footer that you can you barely get to because of the video they force display.

                        Comment


                        • Referring to this post:
                          Given the potential numbers - what is the tipping point where testing for virus confirmation can no longer be sustained? At some point the exponential increase will overwhelm health care systems.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by hawkeye View Post
                            Referring to this post:
                            Given the potential numbers - what is the tipping point where testing for virus confirmation can no longer be sustained? At some point the exponential increase will overwhelm health care systems.
                            How many cases were confirmed worldwide in the H1N1 pandemic? Only about 50,000, I believe. Then they just stopped testing.

                            I've previously said years ago that in a severe H5N1 pandemic, only a few thousand cases would be confirmed before testing broke down.

                            I suspect this is somewhere between the two in terms of the eventual number of confirmed cases. A thread posted tonight indicates an estimate that China is confirming only 5.1% of cases already; that will surely drop as the virus spreads. My personal estimates were that I thought they were confirming something more like 1 in 50 or 1 in 100 actual infections.

                            And this virus is probably a bit harder to test for than flu would be....

                            Comment


                            • This information about R0 is from: Complexity of the Basic Reproduction Number (R0)
                              The basic reproduction number (R0), pronounced “R naught,” is intended to be an indicator of the contagiousness or transmissibility of infectious and parasitic agents. . . . An R0 for an infectious disease event is generally reported as a single numeric value or low–high range, and the interpretation is typically presented as straightforward; an outbreak is expected to continue if R0 has a value >1 and to end if R0 is <1. The potential size of an outbreak or epidemic often is based on the magnitude of the R0 value for that event, and R0 can be used to estimate the proportion of the population that must be vaccinated to eliminate an infection from that population. . . .

                              Counting the number of cases of infection during an epidemic can be extremely difficult, even when public health officials use active surveillance and contact tracing to attempt to locate all infected persons. Although measuring the true R0 value is possible during an outbreak of a newly emerging infectious pathogen that is spreading through a wholly susceptible population, rarely are there sufficient data collection systems in place to capture the early stages of an outbreak when R0 might be measured most accurately. As a result, R0 is nearly always estimated retrospectively from seroepidemiologic data or by using theoretical mathematical models.
                              http://novel-infectious-diseases.blogspot.com/

                              Comment


                              • If I'm understanding this correctly, a 66 yr old man and his son (Chinese nationals) originally contracted the virus and it has been contracted by a child in the family located in Malaysia.

                                https://www.malaymail.com/news/malay...laysia/1831344

                                Is this the first report of infection outside of China?
                                Last edited by hawkeye; January 25th, 2020, 01:11 AM.

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