Discussion Thread I - 2019-nCov (new coronavirus)

[Oric]

Has WHO seen thise kinds of videos ?
There are serveral videos of people collapsing/dying in hospitals, streets etc. on Twitter.

Such videos are not verified of origin and time. Do not under estimate the power of attention seekers (click-baiters) and trolls. I do not say that all these videos are fake but should be taken with a grain of salt.

[Commonground]

China's quarantine efforts spread to 13 cities as virus toll climbs; 41 million people affected

24 Jan 2020 10:07AM

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/wuhan-virus-china-pneumonia-outbreak-city-shut-12320076

[Shiloh]

Source: http://www.kaixian.tv/gd/2020/0124/263113.html
Fever cough is not the only first symptom of pneumonia due to a new coronavirus infection
2020-01-24 19:45:50 Source: Xinhua News Agency

研究 Expert research by Wuhan University People's Hospital found that after infection with new type of coronavirus pneumonia, patients do not necessarily show symptoms of fever and respiratory system first, and there are also symptoms of digestive system, nervous system, cardiovascular system, ophthalmology and so on.

Wuhan University People's Hospital released on January 24th "The first symptoms of non-respiratory system are highly valued-identification and protection of patients with new type of coronavirus pneumonia (2019-nCOV)", reminding medical staff and the public to be highly vigilant about non-respiratory symptoms The first symptom of new pneumonia.

The "Notice on the Issuance of a New Coronary Virus Pneumonia Diagnosis and Treatment Plan (Trial Implementation)" issued by the authoritative department recently pointed out that the clinical manifestations of new coronavirus pneumonia are mainly manifested by fever, fatigue, and dry cough. In the multidisciplinary department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Gastroenterology, People's Hospital of Wuhan University, many cases of "atypical" cases have been discovered during the diagnosis and treatment of new pneumonia.

于 Professor Yu Honggang, director of Department of Gastroenterology, People's Hospital of Wuhan University, introduced an "atypical" case. A 45-year-old man went to the outpatient department of gastroenterology for 3 days due to diarrhea. The doctor repeatedly asked the medical history to confirm that he had a history of exposure to the new coronavirus pneumonia, but no obvious fever and related respiratory symptoms. Thorough CT was performed after the consultation between the doctor and the patient. The results showed multiple sheet-like ground glass-like shadows in both lungs, and a new coronavirus nucleic acid test in the throat swab was positive, and the diagnosis was finally confirmed.

Professor Chen Guozhong, one of the study moderators and director of the Department of Respiratory and Critical I, Wuhan University People's Hospital, introduced that in many clinical cases, the patient did not have typical respiratory symptoms such as fever and cough at the time of consultation, and only the first symptoms of digestive system symptoms: Such as mild appetite, fatigue, poor mentality, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, etc .; first manifestations of neurological symptoms such as headache; first manifestations of cardiovascular system symptoms such as palpitation, chest tightness, etc .; first manifestations of ophthalmic symptoms such as conjunctivitis ; Only mild sore limbs or lower back muscles.

Experts reminded that the above-mentioned patients with non-respiratory system as the first performance are easy to go to relevant departments for treatment, especially in gastroenterology. The lack of obvious specific clinical manifestations increases the difficulty of diagnosis, easily leads to missed diagnosis or misdiagnosis, and increases the chance of infection. Medical staff must be alert to patients with poor appetite, fatigue, muscle soreness (including mild soreness), and mental disorders, and make timely investigations. Such "atypical" patients need to strengthen self-isolation, and medical staff should also strengthen self-protection.

[hawkeye]

Seeing some video of military movement. And reading whispers of martial law fears.

I’ve not come across anything official.

[hawkeye]

Seeing some video of military movement. And reading whispers of martial law fears.

I’ve not come across anything official.

6:48 Jan 24
The Chinese military are being deployed to help control Wuhan Coronavirus. 40 medical personnel of troops in Wuhan have been dispatched to a civilian hospital.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177737.shtml

[Treyfish]

Nepal health ministry 1 confirmedhttps://mobile.twitter.com/Ashoke_Ra...16654050598914

[Gert van der Hoek]

From WHO:

"They [Chinese authorities] reported fourth-generation cases in Wuhan and second-generation cases outside Wuhan, as well as some clusters outside Hubei province"

[Readymom]

From WHO:

"They [Chinese authorities] reported fourth-generation cases in Wuhan and second-generation cases outside Wuhan, as well as some clusters outside Hubei province"

Does this mean H2x4 ??

[JJackson]

Readymom I think this relating to how many people it passed though Host2Human2H2H. The significance of 3rd and 4th gen cases is covered in the link in post#194 https://www.utoronto.ca/news/u-t-inf...-uncertainties . In short it is indicator of how sustainable its H2H is - i.e. a bad sign if we start seeing longer chains.

[Readymom]

JJackson commented
Today, 11:26 AM


Readymom I think this relating to how many people it passed though Host2Human2H2H. The significance of 3rd and 4th gen cases is covered in the link in post#194. In short it is indicator of how sustainable its H2H is - i.e. a bad sign.

= = = = = =


Thank you! That is exactly what I was questioning. It's sustained H2H. Ugh!

[tetano]

I don't find the source of this news


British and American scholars estimate that more than 190,000 people will be infected with new viral pneumonia after 10 days in Wuhan




The number of new viral pneumonia infections has continued to rise. Some scholars in the United Kingdom and the United States have calculated that if the epidemic prevention measures are not changed, the number of infected people in Wuhan will increase to more than 190,000 in 10 days. It was found to be because most cases were mild.

Five scholars from universities such as the University of Lancaster in the United Kingdom, using case data analysis as of Tuesday, believe that Wuhan ’s restrictions on access can only reduce the number of cases of infection outside Wuhan by about 25%. It is estimated that there will be outbreaks in Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu, and Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea also have the opportunity to import cases due to air traffic.

Scholars estimate that patients infected with the new coronavirus can transmit the virus to 3.8 people on average, more than SARS. They believe that the rapid increase in cases is much higher than SARS or the Middle East respiratory syndrome, and it is estimated that it will be more difficult to control the epidemic.


https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/compone...6-20200125.htm

[sharon sanders]

I don't find the source of this news


British and American scholars estimate that more than 190,000 people will be infected with new viral pneumonia after 10 days in Wuhan




The number of new viral pneumonia infections has continued to rise. Some scholars in the United Kingdom and the United States have calculated that if the epidemic prevention measures are not changed, the number of infected people in Wuhan will increase to more than 190,000 in 10 days. It was found to be because most cases were mild.

Five scholars from universities such as the University of Lancaster in the United Kingdom, using case data analysis as of Tuesday, believe that Wuhan ’s restrictions on access can only reduce the number of cases of infection outside Wuhan by about 25%. It is estimated that there will be outbreaks in Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing and Chengdu, and Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea also have the opportunity to import cases due to air traffic.

Scholars estimate that patients infected with the new coronavirus can transmit the virus to 3.8 people on average, more than SARS. They believe that the rapid increase in cases is much higher than SARS or the Middle East respiratory syndrome, and it is estimated that it will be more difficult to control the epidemic.


https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/compone...6-20200125.htm

I can't find the source either. They don't list the scholars. I looked all over the University of Lancaster site and did not find it.

[sharon sanders]

Seeing some video of military movement. And reading whispers of martial law fears.

I’ve not come across anything official.

Here is the official announcement. Chinanews is a government media:

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...298#post824298

[Shiloh]

Source: https://www.epochtimes.com/gb/20/1/24/n11818867.htm

Online exposure of a funeral home in Wuhan pulls 50 dead a day
Update: 2020-01-25 3:05 AM Tags: Wuhan pneumonia, 50 dead, patients fall to the ground

Epoch Times, January 25, 2020: The pneumonia epidemic in Wuhan may be much more severe than the official CCP report, and the number of deaths may also be much higher than the official figure. A netizen in Wuhan broke the news that only one local funeral home pulled 50 bodies a day.

A netizen named "Sister Sister Mighty" posted news on January 24 that her aunt died of a new type of pneumonia and her body was placed on the bed of Hankou Hospital yesterday. The hospital was not allowed to enter the morgue, and her family members should contact the funeral home and disinfect themselves .

After her aunt died at about 10 pm on the 23rd, her family contacted a funeral home. Until 11 noon on the 24th, the funeral car had not arrived.

Because there was only one car in the funeral home to sterilize, the whole city pulled dead people, and one hospital and one hospital pulled, "Yesterday (23) 50 people were killed a day." When people die, they are thrown there. No one cares about it.

She also said, "I'm also scared. People die when they are left on the hospital bed. The temperature of the hospital is high, the virus is fermented, and the virus spreads freely, which will infect more people. This is definitely not only my aunt's family. The hospital is a Big sick bank! "
Netizens broke the news that a funeral home in Wuhan pulled 50 dead people one day on the 23rd. (webpage Screenshot)

According to the Chinese Communist Party's official report on January 24, as of now, a total of 903 cases have been confirmed in the mainland, of which 495 cases have been confirmed in Wuhan; 26 people have died, 24 in Hubei, 1 in Hebei, and 1 in Heilongjiang.

However, current political commentator Shi Shi said that the information disclosed on the Internet showed that the death toll was far higher than the 26 officially reported by the CCP.

Shi Shi said that there is more than one funeral home in Wuhan, and the above-mentioned netizens broke the news that only one funeral home pulled 50 corpses a day, indicating that in Wuhan alone, more than 50 people died on the 23rd.

The video disclosed by Wuhan netizens on the 23rd showed that the local patient fell to the ground directly at the hospital or the roadside, the picture was shocked, but these posts and videos were continuously deleted.

A person familiar with the matter quoted a friend who was in the Wuhan community to introduce him. Some patients fell ill and fell directly to the ground! Five cases have appeared in a certain district in Wuhan, and were towed away by medical staff after discovery.

On the 23rd, an online recording of an internal group sent by the head nurse of Wuhan Xiehe Hospital to his family and relatives was also circulated on the Internet.

Recordings show that the current epidemic situation in Wuhan is far more severe than the outside world thinks. All major hospitals are overcrowded. Now the hospitals do not accept ordinary patients at all. Many hospitals leave the entire ward or ward to employees and their families.

She revealed, "A medical department in (Wuhan) Concord has been recruited, and now orthopedic surgeons are working as internal medicine (doctors)."

She said that what I want to tell you now is that this coronavirus has no medicine to treat at all, and it is the key that its immunity can survive this viral period. She suggested that family members and loved ones should never go out, visit relatives and friends, and wear a few more layers of masks, wash hands, drink plenty of water, etc. when going out. #

Editor-in-Chief: Zhang Dun

[Toaster2]

Anyone looking into R0 estimates ? R0 is estimated to be 1.4-2.5 by WHO whereas estimates for H1N1 and seasonal flu are lower. Can it be stopped with this R0 ?

From

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail...rus-(2019-ncov) :

Human-to-human transmission is occurring and a preliminary R0 estimate of 1.4-2.5 was presented. Amplification has occurred in one health care facility. Of confirmed cases, 25% are reported to be severe. The source is still unknown (most likely an animal reservoir) and the extent of human-to-human transmission is still not clear.

Modeling influenza epidemics and pandemics: …

Deze pagina vertalen

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19545404
22-6-2009 ? The R0 for novel influenza A (H1N1) has recently been estimated to be between 1.4 and 1.6. This value is below values of R0 estimated for the 1918-1919 pandemic strain (mean R0 approximately 2: range 1.4 to 2.8) and is comparable to R0 values estimated for seasonal strains of influenza (mean R0 1.3: range 0.9 to 2.1).

[JimO]

There is no evidence that people of any particular nationality are more or less susceptible to this new coronavirus. At this time, the most significant factor associated with being infected with this coronavirus is having traveled to or from Wuhan or have been in contact with sick people who have traveled to or from Hubei Province.

I was referring to the potential of Chinese students having traveled here in recent weeks to attend or return to school and who might have been exposed while in China.