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Novel #coronavirus in #China: Human-to-human infection confirmed as 14 medical staff in #Wuhan caught #pneumonia. Government has sent Zhong Nanshan, the discoverer of #SARS, to help the combat.
At the outset of the H1N1(2009) pandemic I wrote a series of post aimed at helping new visitors to the site to understand the numbers appearing in the media. The extract below is taken from post #9 (thread link) which is explaining the difference between confirmed/probable/suspected/estimated cases.
A confirmed case is one in which a sample has been grown, or RT PCR tested, in a lab. Until a day or two ago in reality that meant at the CDC in Atlanta because there were no primers for the new strain at regional testing centres. The CDC has a budget many times bigger than the WHO and I noted in a recent release that they said they could ‘test about 100 samples over night’. It is also reported that there are 35,000 swabs from Mexico alone awaiting testing. Taking these two bits of information along with the graph in post #7 you should see that looking at confirmed cases is unlikely to give an accurate picture. It is more likely to reflect how good a country’s lab facilities are than the realities of disease spread.
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Post #10 looks at the meaning of Ro, CAR, CFR etc. While the posts were discussing H1N1 they also apply here.
In post #28 of this thread I gave a very brief explanation of the testing regime and we are now at a similar point in the outbreak as H1N1 was in the extract above primers have been developed and distributed and a slew of new confirmed cases should be expected as new & retrospective CAP (community acquired pneumonia) get tested.
From today's BBC article
Wuhan reported 136 new cases of the respiratory illness. The capital Beijing reported two cases, while Shenzhen confirmed one.
. Numbers like this are meaningless without context. Wuhan has a population of about 10m, European data shows CAP running at about 5 cases per 1000p.a. from which we get (assuming China is similar) 50,000p.a. or 137 a day for Wuhan and this does not account for CAP's seasonal distribution which is skewed toward winter and spring. So if anything 136 cases would look a little low. (data from a Feb. 2018 BMJ paper looking at CAP in China full text link ).
Last edited by JJackson; January 20, 2020, 09:32 AM.
Is there any information being released about successful treatment protocols? The UK's NHS is already at a point where some hospitals are buying Care Home spaces due to insufficient capacity from the current flu season (in line with some of the pandemic plans). I am concerned that stockpiling of drugs, PPE and other resources have likely not happened in the UK. I dont know about the US?
Is there any information being released about successful treatment protocols? The UK's NHS is already at a point where some hospitals are buying Care Home spaces due to insufficient capacity from the current flu season (in line with some of the pandemic plans). I am concerned that stockpiling of drugs, PPE and other resources have likely not happened in the UK. I dont know about the US?
Zhong Nanshan confirms human-to-human transmission of new coronavirus pneumonia
Zhong Nanshan: According to the current data, the new type of coronavirus pneumonia is definitely a human-to-human transmission. There were two cases in Guangdong. I have not been to Wuhan, but my family members have been infected with the new type of coronavirus pneumonia after going to Wuhan. Some people pass on the phenomenon.video https://www.pneumonia.cn/2020/01/20/...rus-pneumonia/ Zhong Nanshan: New coronavirus pneumonia is definitely present in humans
Zhong Nanshan confirms human-to-human transmission of new coronavirus pneumonia
Zhong Nanshan: According to the current data, the new type of coronavirus pneumonia is definitely a human-to-human transmission. There were two cases in Guangdong. I have not been to Wuhan, but my family members have been infected with the new type of coronavirus pneumonia after going to Wuhan. Some people pass on the phenomenon.
Regarding how to prevent the new coronavirus, Zhong Nanshan reminded:
1. Try to avoid going to Wuhan in the near future; 2. If you have fever or other discomfort, you should go to the hospital immediately; 3. Wear a mask at any time, but it is not necessarily a N95 mask.
Looking back on Zhong Nanshan: the whole nation's vigilance will not repeat the SARS epidemic 17 years ago
Academician Zhong Nanshan pointed out that it is necessary to increase vigilance now. The people, leaders, governments, medical staff, including the media, and the leaders of the territories must take responsibility. We are confident that we can control the new coronavirus. Zhong Nanshan said that the new coronavirus was located in two weeks, and we have a good surveillance and quarantinehttp://news.cnhubei.com/content/2020...1.0.0.1.r8RwhE
Last edited by Treyfish; January 20, 2020, 10:29 AM.
Beijing professor, human-to-human potential new type pneumonia, explosive fears
1/20 (Monday) 19:34 delivery
[Beijing joint] Regarding pneumonia caused by the new coronavirus, which is spreading in China,Professor Wang Yutan (Immunology) of the Beijing University School of Medicine said, "People are infected from person to person" after the number of cases has increased significantly. The possibilities are very large. " The Chinese newspaper, Shin-Kyoho (electronic version) reported on the 20th. ..https://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=2...kyodonews-soci
China's new pneumonia, healthcare workers in Guangzhou are also reported to be infected
Jan 20, 2020 17:15
A sixth clinic attached to Zhongshan University in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, posted on Weibo yesterday to deny that medical personnel at the hospital had been infected with the new coronavirus, but later deleted the post ( Screenshot from Weibo)It has been reported that pneumonia caused by the new coronavirus in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China has spread to Beijing and Shenzhen, Guangdong, as well as cases of infection at hospitals in Guangzhou.
On the Internet, a medical professional at Zhongshan University's sixth clinic in Guangzhou and the Army General Clinic recently reported that some people were infected with the new coronavirus pneumonia. In response, on January 18, the sixth clinic attached to Nakayama University issued a statement on SNS's "Micro Expo", claiming that "it was not the case." However, the statement was later deleted, causing external speculation...https://www.epochtimes.jp/p/2020/01/...JGQMxk.twitter
UPDATE: The report says that two of the patients in Guangdong province had not travelled to Wuhan, but fell ill after their family member was infected by the coronavirus after visiting the cityhttps://twitter.com/OliviaSiongCNA/s...64246090883075
...Gao Fu: We are fighting a "war" against virus mutation
Gao Fu, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and director of the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, pointed out that the new coronavirus is also changing, adapting to the environment and human beings, so this "war" is a "war" of prevention and control and virus mutation.....http://news.cnhubei.com/content/2020...1.0.0.1.r8RwhE
Zhong Nanshan: 14 medical staff infected with new coronavirus pneumonia
2020.01.20 23:07:07 CCTVOriginal title: Zhong Nanshan: Pneumonia epidemic of new coronavirus infection presents human-to-human characteristics and 14 medical staff infected
Zhong Nanshan, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, leader of the high-level expert group of the National Health and Health Commission: More than 95% have a relationship with Wuhan. Having been to Wuhan and coming from Wuhan is a feature. The second characteristic is that human infection has been confirmed. It is confirmed that there is human infection in two regions, one in Guangdong and one in Wuhan. The third feature also confirmed the infection of medical staff. Then these three conditions and the infection of medical staff finally confirmed that the infection around the patients with the new coronavirus was caused by 14 medical staff in all aspects of care.
Academician Zhong Nanshan said that the occurrence of human-to-human transmission and medical staff infection was a very important sign. The reason for the increased number of cases is more complicated... https://news.sina.cn/gn/2020-01-20/d...os=8&cid=56261
Wuhan pneumonia endangers stability, Xi Jinping orders resolute containment
issuing time: 20/01/2020-17:14
The pneumonia epidemic in Wuhan, China, has been delayed for many days. Chinese officials mobilized today. President Xi Jinping issued instructions. Prime Minister Li Keqiang also gave a speech. The official media published articles on the outbreak to point out prevention knowledge. China WeChat Weibo also lifted the ban on the content of Wuhan pneumonia epidemic. The Central News Agency said that Xi Jinping's speech stressed the need to "resolutely maintain the stability of the overall society."
"Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear." -Nelson Mandela
..[Editorial Committee of HKBU] According to Lin Yingze, deputy director of the internal affairs of the Student Council, a Chinese student on the 15th floor of the north building of the undergraduate student hall reported that he had been diagnosed with pneumonia after seeking medical treatment in Shenzhen a few days ago. Still staying in the dormitory...Hong Kong Baptist University Students' Union Editorial Board
1 hr ?
[00:20] Update: The sick Chinese student has posted a message on the Whatsapp group by himself, saying that he has been examined at Queen Elizabeth Hospital and was diagnosed with mild pneumonia caused by a long-term cold. It has nothing to do with Wuhan pneumonia and has not visited recently. Wuhan. https://www.facebook.com/42376310770...248902354/?d=n
Yitsing Wang @yitsingw2m2 minutes ago
We exclusively confirmed the infection of medical workers in #Wuhan yesterday and now the expert from China's National Health Commission eventually acknowledged that 14 medical workers have been infected. Mostly in two hospitals Tongji and Union.https://twitter.com/yitsingw
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"I asked a doctor, it's true. Four people were deceased just in his ward, numerous medical staff were infected" "He's from the Central Hospital of Wuhan (No.2), and he is not even from the respiratory ward" [4/4]https://twitter.com/WBYeats1865/stat...27143626203137
not confirmed, I'm looking
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