Originally posted by Toaster2
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100 Years after the Spanish Flu: Lessons Learned and Challenges for the Future
Here is an excerpt from the article discussing the R0:
"To capture the risk of a global pandemic, the model was configured to simulate what would happen if a newly emerged virus—i.e., one in which health systems are not prepared for and likely do not have a vaccine to prevent—appeared in southeast Asia. The model utilized typical SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) dynamics: all individuals were assumed to be susceptible, and immunity to the virus did not wane. The virus was given an R0 (the basic reproductive rate, or the number of secondary infections caused by a typical case) of 2.1. For comparison, seasonal flu has an R0 of 0.9 – 2.1, with a mean of 1.3; the R0 of the 1918-1919 pandemic-causing Spanish flu is estimated to have ranged from 1.4 – 2.8, with a mean of 2. Individuals in the model could travel both locally and by airplane, thereby moving the virus within and across countries. With an initial seeding of about 800 infections, the simulation demonstrated how an unchecked epidemic can very quickly evolve into a pandemic within a wholly susceptible population."
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