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Originally posted by alert
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check out this post (actually several posts) stating R0 of 3.8
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Here's a link to the paper referenced in that post: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....23.20018549v1Originally posted by hawkeye View Post
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Dr. Eric seems a very respectable scientist with no conflicts of interest that would lead him to hype this virus. But I don't agree with the references to 1918. Yes, we can travel the globe more quickly but there were mass movements back then due to world war and unhealthy conditions. I'd like to think we have made some progress in medicine since then. This coronavirus just seems like a bad cold or flu. It is not selecting for young adults and even in 1918 there were host factors.
"ABSTRACT
During the 1918–1919 pandemic, influenza mortality widely varied across populations and locations. Records of U.S. military members in mobilization camps (n = 40), military academies, and officer training schools were examined to document differences in influenza experiences during the fall 1918. During the fall–winter 1918–1919, mortality percentages were higher among soldiers in U.S. Army mobilization camps (0.34–4.3%) than among officer trainees (0–1.0%). Susceptibility to infection and clinical expressions of 1918 pandemic influenza varied largely based on host epidemiological characteristics rather than the inherent virulence of the virus."_____________________________________________
Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic.
i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed
"...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party
(My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
Never forget Excalibur.Comment
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[QUOTE=Emily;n824542] This coronavirus just seems like a bad cold or flu. It is not selecting for young adults and even in 1918 there were host factors.
With great respect, I dont think they would be quarantining 36m for something equivalent to a bad cold or a normal flu. China fears loss of social cohesion more than anything else. For them to do this and cancel celebrations for the single largest annual holiday in the world means they are very worried
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can we have a poll ...
estimated probability of >1Million deaths in USA from nCoV within 3 yearsI'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgTComment
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[QUOTE=Vibrant62;n824549]I think it could be the fear of the unknown combined with a strain on the healthcare system if this new disease is adding to the seasonal burden. They cancelled plans here in the Seattle area, too.Originally posted by Emily View Post
:quality(70)/d1hfln2sfez66z.cloudfront.net/01-25-2020/t_9c8fdf21bb1b4d5f9a17d64f24d31251_name_Sammamish_Lunar_New_Year_cancelled.jpg)
There is just that one case up in Snohomish County. But he is still in the hospital as far as I know and Thursday was the earliest day they had hoped he would be released.
_____________________________________________
Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic.
i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed
"...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party
(My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
Never forget Excalibur.Comment
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The Twitter hashtags #SARS and #Wuhan are blowing up with people suggesting the BSL4 lab in Wuhan, the only one in China, as the origin of this virus, either through intentional or accidental release. There are several news articles out this morning, including one in the Washington Times to that effect, accusing China of working on this virus in a bioweapons program.
This is still really an animal virus, even if we haven't determined which animal and where it jumped to humans. I can't imagine someone is smart enough to engineer a SARS-like virus to spread this efficiently H2H and then accidentally release it in the lab. I just don't think we know that much about coronaviruses in general to pull that off. Also, if the lab had engineered the virus, we would have gotten these draconian measures to fight it three weeks ago when the virus was discovered as they would have known the potential of the virus.Comment
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Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019-nCoV
View ORCID ProfileJulien Riou, View ORCID ProfileChristian L Althaus
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.917351
This article is a preprint and has not been certified by peer review [what does this mean?].Abstract
On December 31, 2019, the World Health Organization was notified about a cluster of pneumonia of unknown aetiology in the city of Wuhan, China. Chinese authorities later identified a new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) as the causative agent of the outbreak. As of January 23, 2020, 655 cases have been confirmed in China and several other countries. Understanding the transmission characteristics and the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission of 2019-nCoV is critically important for coordinating current screening and containment strategies, and determining whether the outbreak constitutes a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). We performed stochastic simulations of early outbreak trajectories that are consistent with the epidemiological findings to date. We found the basic reproduction number, R_0, to be around 2.2 (90% high density interval 1.4--3.8), indicating the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission. Transmission characteristics appear to be of a similar magnitude to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and the 1918 pandemic influenza. These findings underline the importance of heightened screening, surveillance and control efforts, particularly at airports and other travel hubs, in order to prevent further international spread of 2019-nCoV.
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Twitter: @RonanKelly13
The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.Comment
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I've read reports of many people being sent home from the hospital, without receiving treatment, due to hospitals running out of room and supplies. Doesn't that complicate the "discharge" statistic?Originally posted by alert View Post
It's worth noting that the so-called "seafood market" was also selling a number of rare animals, in a wet market format. That kind of unsanitary environment tends to be a good breeding ground for species-jumping viruses.Originally posted by alert View Post
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this early spread with cases showing up at several places in the world and the futile containment efforts reminds me
to 2009 H1N1. it should still be here in the flutrackers archive ... first case in xy ...
it was somehow different than with ebola,MERS,H7N7
although, I do not see a sustained transmission outside Wuhan yet (??)I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgTComment
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Wonder if Beijing will eventually go into full lockdown....
Source: https://www.news18.com/news/world/ch...t-2473173.html
News18 ?World
Beijing to Suspend Buses Entering or Leaving City to Contain
AFP
Last Updated: January 25, 2020, 6:36 PM IST
Beijing: China's capital will suspend buses that enter and exit the city boundary, state media reported on Saturday, as Chinese authorities scramble to contain a new SARS-like virus that has killed dozens in the country.
According to state-run People's Daily, "all passenger transport by road" that crosses in and out of Beijing will be suspended starting Sunday, citing "requirements of epidemic prevention and control".
China on Saturday announced plans to build a second hospital within half a month to treat more cases of the deadly coronavirus as the fast spreading virus continues to wreak havoc in the country and abroad with 41 people dead and more than 1,300 infected, dampening the Chinese New Year celebrations...Comment
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Looks like Patient 0 had no tie to the animal market.
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Based on what we've seen so far - my guess is yes. And one could even reason that if they don't then the government has likely decided there is no slowing the virus and likely is giving up.Originally posted by Shiloh View Post
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Good read: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/worl...ting-strategy/
Weeks before lockdown, Wuhan authorities used 'refrigerating strategy’ to downplay coronavirus
Nathan VanderKlippeAsia correspondent
Beijing
Published 3 minutes ago
...Now, new evidence is emerging that officials in Wuhan deliberately downplayed the virus, even after formally notifying the World Health Organization on Dec. 31 about what the WHO described as “a cluster of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause.”
But the Wuhan government took a “refrigerating strategy” in the early days of the viral spread, a doctor at Wuhan Union Hospital told China News Weekly. Medical staff were banned from speaking publicly about what was taking place or accepting media interviews, the doctor said.
Police in Wuhan also said in early January that they had arrested eight people for spreading “rumours” about what was then a little-understood pneumonia affecting a growing number of people.
Another person claiming to be a Wuhan physician wrote to the National Health Commission this week claiming that doctors in the city were told not to report “viral pneumonia” in their imaging reports between Jan. 12 and Jan. 16 — a period during which local officials delivered sunny reports on a local situation under control. That meant that, during a crucial period in which cases were accumulating, local health-care workers were unable to properly raise the alarm, the person wrote. The Globe and Mail was unable to independently verify the report, which was widely circulated in China and not refuted by state media...
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Eight Interprovincial Bus Lines of Capital Airport SuspendedOriginally posted by Shiloh View Post
January 25, 2020 21:51 Source: China News Network
China News Service, January 25th. According to the official Weibo message from Beijing Capital International Airport, eight inter-provincial bus lines of Beijing Capital International Airport were suspended.
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