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  • 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

    photocopy of a 1919 article, with graphs, statistics, reports, analysis

    http://statelibrary.dcr.state.nc.us/...R34JuneDec.pdf

    -------edit---Mar.2013, link bad
    http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/arc...p/t-74789.html


    http://digitalstatelibnc.cdmhost.com...c/cosuppress/1
    Last edited by gsgs; June 14, 2007, 04:30 PM.
    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

  • #2
    Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

    does someone want to share his contribution to (pre?)pandemic
    research by typing the numbers into computer ?

    I already did the Massachusetts, NY, SF, Cleveland data.

    The last big table with the US-cities would be useful ,
    flu-cases and inhabitants needed. So we can make
    urban/rural statistics, which way it spread,
    how much delaying did work etc.



    monthly deaths from pneumonia/influenza per 1M people in Cleveland 1910-1918
    1362,1983,1800,2230,2135,1483,1079, 542, 482, 518, 856,1380,1900
    1065,1743,1659,1641,1550,1034, 775, 405, 506, 671, 810,1090, 932
    1146,1636,1412,1597,1427,1262, 917, 552, 750, 306, 888,1101,1854
    1319,1798,2051,2175,1525,1474,1075, 681, 506, 743,1153,1309,1286
    1172,1601,1752,1970,2018,1399, 533, 516, 463, 590, 664,1160,1437
    1627,1665,3331,2526,2018,1093, 774, 555, 787, 592,1218,1702,3368
    1985,5450,2092,2638,2669,2112, 866, 576, 821, 757,1536,1750,2429
    2109,3440,3860,4150,2338,2080,1458, 902, 664, 721,1600,1529,2670
    5480,1613,1785,1904,3663,1426, 600, 625, 435, 480,18120,21350,13760
    monthly deaths from pneumonia/influenza per 1M people in New York City 1910-1918
    2293,3278,3002,3433,3035,2254,1621,1255,1080,1269, 1547,2116,3659
    2177,3213,3256,3590,3387,2372,1372,1158, 972,1076,1450,1950,2408
    1986,2665,2945,2870,2546,2383,1535,1123, 990, 949,1578,1785,2516
    1997,2650,3530,3422,2427,2251,1589,1135,1019,1005, 1184,1729,2133
    1843,2473,2930,3194,2418,2111,1316, 925, 861, 881,1100,1629,2343
    2027,2537,2322,3254,3445,2121,1720,1032, 892, 908,1204,1671,3244
    1897,4025,2617,2520,2109,1946,1331,1137,1005, 877,1164,1540,2421
    1919,3179,3163,2373,2212,2024,1228, 726, 784, 895,1276,1855,2377
    6364,3484,2390,5480,4321,2014,1054, 813, 718,35160,3516,12506,5498
    monthly deaths from pneumonia/influenza per 1M people in San Francisco 1910-1918
    1286,1999,1340,1689,1482,1323,1016,1098,1126, 873,1182,1105,1182
    1357,2073,1500,1356, 686, 912,1500, 885, 830,1350,1327,1440,2709
    1260,2363,1916,1820,1319, 869, 477, 516, 679, 926, 842,1375,1983
    1396,2617,1921,1949,1435,1228, 910, 668, 721, 993,1255,1104,1949
    1226,1917,1398,1785,1329,1076, 841, 788, 630,1031, 709, 977,2310
    1332,2146,1374,1188,1254,1136,1014, 904,1110,1387,1162,1174,2118
    1332,2430,1656,1626,1413,1016, 840, 889, 711, 761, 889,1443,2210
    1275,2100,1854,1300,1214,1350, 722, 800, 775,1188,1000,1446,1675
    7130,2313,2043,2781,3102,1526,1398, 787, 738,1170,35340,20698,13310




    San Francisco almost always peaks in December, while East coast often have a Feb.,Mar. high.
    2 peaks could mean two strains, flu-A and flu-B or 2 different H3s, H3N8, or even H2,H1 ?
    The panflu-strain could have been present years before 1918.
    Last edited by Sally Furniss; June 14, 2007, 10:11 PM. Reason: Naking title search friendly
    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: analysis by Frost,Sydenstricker

      How interesting, gsgs! Do you mean into an Excel spreadsheet? I don't have time just at the moment, but if no one else gets to it first, I might have time later today (say in 8-10 hours from now). Which table(s) were you thinking of?
      ...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: analysis by Frost,Sydenstricker

        no Excel, just plain text or html. Send email or post.

        They have lots of tables, at the moment
        I was thinking at the last one with the
        cities.

        But we also need the inhabitants in 1918.
        And the geographical coordinates.
        Needn't be 100% exact, not all the cities needed.

        So, the names, flu-cases in 1918, flu-deaths in 1918.
        The other data should be available somewhere...
        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: analysis by Frost,Sydenstricker




          Code:
          monthly deaths from pneumonia per million people 1887-1916 in Massachusetts
          195,167, 19,226,161, 77, 55, 41, 56, 90,148,153
          247,251,264,213,164, 80, 55, 40, 62,114, 98,139
          179,163,211,198,149, 75, 53, 52, 54,106,132,193
          478,177,176,201,127, 85, 62, 48, 50, 94,118,183
          206,164,206,251,239,101, 59, 40, 40, 77,138,364
          615,252,231,214,170, 83, 54, 42, 68, 85,125,190
          273,254,286,331,273,111, 80, 50, 61, 98,143,319
          328,199,227,185,149, 85, 51, 51, 68, 82,113,136
          191,344,308,209,144, 76, 56, 53, 47,105,134,173
          195,207,249,259,187,103, 76, 45, 76,107,127,188
          211,249,315,197,152,102, 79, 45, 60,117,131,169
          188,171,185,187,157, 66, 60, 48, 56,106,128,210
          375,258,206,184,140, 89, 50, 48, 58, 82,132,190
          227,211,420,305,176, 87, 53, 43, 53, 62, 99,147
          226,266,262,199,139, 77, 34, 34, 57, 91,142,151
          157,189,199,158,155, 80, 62, 53, 57,118,145,206
          252,258,254,181,168, 82, 70, 45, 46, 77,133,189
          226,227,241,212,142, 67, 59, 44, 65, 94,150,195
          247,277,236,171,155, 85, 54, 48, 62, 89,158,200
          225,219,241,217,149, 51, 62, 50, 60, 94,138,210
          255,244,234,183,143, 95, 51, 51, 71, 93,127,269
          266,222,211,194,135, 66, 49, 58, 64, 92,124,176
          221,200,261,291,160, 97, 51, 50, 54, 89,136,183
          241,207,275,233,169, 97, 73, 63, 91,123,170,236
          226,271,239,202,169, 72, 67, 51, 67, 90,118,162
          198,202,212,164,133, 62, 50, 41, 58, 95,105,199
          235,228,249,193,171,107, 62, 54, 67, 83,104,168
          229,201,232,204,152, 82, 51, 55, 60,101,126,168
          178,193,285,277,136, 66, 71, 58, 60, 88, 98,221
          356,255,230,173,140, 74, 53, 41, 59, 76,128,183
          monthly deaths from influenza per million people 1887-1916 in Massachusetts
          90,5,14,28,14,5,0,0,0,5,10,5,5
          51,14,5,5,0,5,0,0,0,5,14,0,5
          123,9,9,14,14,5,5,5,0,0,9,0,55
          1831,1095,290,143,94,40,36,22,4,18,22,27,40
          2374,39,39,100,387,465,157,52,52,52,22,26,1008
          4105,2433,704,302,183,110,72,51,17,21,38,68,47
          1227,58,70,120,257,207,46,17,12,4,0,46,390
          1497,741,316,138,169,40,20,16,8,16,20,16,36
          1810,79,450,697,329,111,36,24,8,8,4,24,36
          581,93,62,116,105,46,39,15,12,4,27,19,43
          1440,82,242,568,250,102,27,15,23,15,27,27,61
          856,59,59,156,130,148,37,11,22,7,19,26,182
          2072,934,581,218,105,51,29,7,4,7,33,18,84
          2527,121,150,920,923,185,68,21,7,11,11,32,78
          1894,432,636,408,151,84,46,14,4,21,18,25,77
          589,59,87,90,69,73,24,21,14,3,24,45,82
          1265,157,308,366,161,82,38,14,10,3,21,34,70
          1026,145,206,280,138,78,27,20,7,10,17,34,64
          1469,275,458,348,175,86,30,7,7,3,3,20,56
          657,113,107,129,78,36,6,19,13,6,16,16,117
          1613,361,348,228,104,70,22,3,3,3,19,54,399
          1042,448,210,151,86,31,12,6,3,19,15,22,37
          716,76,193,230,88,36,24,3,0,3,15,21,27
          740,139,101,175,151,53,9,9,0,3,21,35,44
          463,87,96,90,79,41,3,9,0,3,12,6,49
          693,146,135,106,60,26,20,17,9,9,26,17,123
          575,200,76,85,51,34,14,0,17,14,20,25,39
          358,75,39,75,64,36,14,6,0,6,3,17,25
          634,79,60,98,188,49,16,8,5,8,11,22,87
          1450,632,304,167,75,56,32,16,13,5,16,43,89
          Last edited by gsgs; June 14, 2007, 01:38 PM.
          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: analysis by Frost,Sydenstricker

            Originally posted by gsgs View Post
            no Excel, just plain text or html. Send email or post.

            They have lots of tables, at the moment I was thinking at the last one with the cities.

            (...)

            So, the names, flu-cases in 1918, flu-deaths in 1918.
            Ok -- here's that last table -- influenza cases only (not the pneumonia or the influenza+pneumonia -- I can maybe do those another day if you want them).

            Influenza only (not incld. pneumonia or influenza + pneumonia) - 1918

            City, State Cases reported,deaths registered,fatalities per 100 cases

            Abilene, TX --,14,--
            Adams, MS 1722,56,3.3
            Akron, OH 4551,630,13.8
            Alameda, CA 2783,94,3.4
            Alliance, OH --,88,--
            Alpena, MI 435,11,2.5
            Alton, IL 120094,7.8
            Altoona, PA 7807,38,.5
            Amarillo, TX --,4,--
            Amesbury, MS 18,55,--
            Amsterdam, NY 4245,52,1.2
            Anacona, MT 626,47,7.5
            Anderson, IN 200,10,5
            Anderson, SC 400,113,28.3
            Ann Arbor, MI 824,--,--
            Anniston, AL 1938,9,.5
            Appleton, WI 1500,4,.3
            Arlington, MS 2384,29,1.2
            Asbury Park, NJ 1304,9,.7
            Ashville, NC 4744,127,2.7
            Ashland, WI 410,64,15.6
            Ashtabula, OH 1135,56,4.9
            Astoria, OR 2800,--,--
            Atlantic City, NJ --,327,--
            Attleboro, MS 1042,44,4.2
            Auburn, NY 4679,145,3.1
            Augusta, ME 493,33,6.7
            Aurora, IL 2500,35,1.4
            Austin, TX --,--,--
            Bakersfield, CA 872,--,--
            Bangor, ME 1600,110,6.9
            Barre, VT 2649,189,7.1
            Baton Rouge, LA --,65,--
            Battle Creek, MI 1559,37,2.4
            Bay City, MI 3496,212,6.1
            Bayonne, NJ 4749,--,--
            Beatrice, NE 1537,101,6.6
            Beaumont, TX 1,90,--
            Bedford, IN 1409,--,--
            Belleville, NJ --,--,--
            Bellingham, WA 2000,82,4.1
            Beloit, WI 3315,120,3.6
            Benton Harbor, MI 3000,--,--
            Berkeley, CA 4090,146,3.6
            Berlin, NH 3449,158,4.6
            Beverly, MS 730,19,2.6
            Billings, MT --,27,--
            Binghamton, NY 3085,229,7.4
            Bloomfield, NJ 1213,29,2.4
            Bloomington, IN 451,4,.89
            Bluefied, WV 1059,--,--
            Boone, IA 1649,--,--
            Boulder, CO 1803,105,5.8
            Braddock, PA 4000,246,6.1
            Bradford, PA 796,35,4.4
            Bridgeton, NJ 2070,42,2.0
            Bristol, CT 1762,74,4.2
            Brockton, MA 2625,389,14.8
            Brookline, MA 2639,108,4.1
            Brownsville, TX --,40,--
            Bruswick, GA 4788,16,.33
            Burlington, IA --,7,--
            Burlington, VT 1810,161,8.9
            Butler, PA 11,315,--,--
            Butte, MT --,--,--
            Cadillac, MI --,17,--
            Cairo, IL 1443,108,7.5
            Cambridge, OH --,--,--
            Canton, IL 3100,70,2.3
            Canton, OH --,322,--
            Cape Giardeau, MO 1428,28,1.4
            Carbondale, PA 893,27,3.0
            Carlisle, PA 3161,--,--
            Cedar Rapids, IA 1457,93,6.4
            Centralia, IL 939,--,--
            Chambersburg, PA --,200,--
            Champaign, IL --,--,--
            Charleroi, PA 2025,--,--
            Charleston, WV 2868,228,7.9
            Charlotte, NC 3281,201,6.1
            Chelsea, MA 1031,329,31.9
            Cheyenne, WY 1800,105,5.8
            Chicopee, MA 597,7,1.2
            Chillicothe, OH 2186,49,2.4
            Cicero, IL --,--,--
            Cleburne, TX 4275,10,.2
            Clinton, IA 1277,--,--
            Clinton, MA 2700,72,2.7
            Coatesville, PA 2500,121,4.8
            Coffeyville, KS 1073,14,1.3
            Cohoes, NY --,--,--
            Colorado Springs, CO 3310,69,2.1
            Columbus, MS --,21,--
            Concord, NH 1331,18,1.4
            Connellsville, PA --,98,--
            Corning, NY --,83,--
            Cortland, NY --,--,--
            Coshocton, OH 845,--,--
            Council Bluff, IA 800,42,5.3
            Cranston, RI 552,173,31.3
            Cumberland, MD 1893,86,4.5
            Danbury, CT 2928,80,2.7
            Danvers, MA 1590,15,.9
            Danville, IL 1124,180,16
            Danville, VA --,48,--
            Davenport, IA 4523,--,--
            Decatur, IL 1566,13,.8
            Denison, TX 4500,12,.3
            Dickson City, PA 1158,90,7.8
            Dover, NH --,22,--
            Dubois, PA --,--,--
            Dubuque, IA 2002,82,4.1
            Duluth, MN 2666,252,9.5
            Dunkirk, NY 1785,39,2.18
            Dunmore, PA 1083,--,--
            Durham, NC --,17,--
            East Chicago, IN 370,169,45.7
            East Cleveland, OH 627,--,--
            East Hampton, MA 1659,52,3.1
            Easton, PA --,62,--
            East Orange, NJ 2067,197,9.5
            East St. Louis, IL --,54,--
            Edwardsville, PA 726,27,3.7
            Eau Claire, WI 1914,43,2.2
            Elgin, IL 1399,--,--
            Elizabeth, NJ 2926,148,5.0
            Elmira, NY 3549,127,3.6
            El Paso, TX 264,--,--
            Elyria, OH 1625,19,1.2
            Enfield, CT 600,6,1.0
            Englewood, NJ 1078,7,.6
            Erie, PA 9514,504,5.3
            Escanaba, MI 2500,46,1.8
            Eugene, OR 484,--,--
            Eureka, CA 2374,72,3
            Evanston, IL 2878,54,2
            Everett, MA 2259,178,7.9
            Everett, WA 3729,84,2.3
            Fairmont, WV 4296,82,1.9
            Fargo, ND --,--,--
            Farrell, PA 420,50,11.9
            Findlay, OH --,--,--
            Fitchburg, MA 4232,45,1.1
            Fond du Lac, WI 500,15,3
            Fort Collins, CO 800,--,--
            Fort Scott, KS 174,9,5.2
            Fort Smith, AK --,160,--
            Fort Wayne, IN 2585,39,1.5
            Fostoria, OH 1181,14,1.2
            Framingham, MA 4804,52,1.1
            Frankfort, IN 1618,10,.6
            Frederick, MD 1040,26,2.5
            Fremont, NB --,8,--
            Fremont, OH 720,4,.6
            Fresno, CA 5086,87,1.7
            Galesburg, IL 3658,75,2.1
            Galveston, TX 1728,82,4.7
            Gardner, MA 1562,36,2.3
            Garfield, NJ 982,16,1.6
            Gary, IN 1125,106,9.4
            Geneva, NY 1200,44,3.7
            Glenn Falls, NY 124,--,--
            Gloucester City, NJ 3200,45,1.4
            Gloversville, NY --,--,--
            Grand Forks, ND 2518,176,7
            Grand Island, NB 1066,48,4.5
            Granite City, IL --,45,--
            Great Falls, MT 301,--,--
            Green Bay, WI 1512,104,6.9
            Greenfield, MA --,--,--
            Greenville, SC 7529,82,1.1
            Greenwich, CT 1867,12,.6
            Hackensack, NJ 1863,75,4
            Hamilton, OH 2479,26,1.5
            Hammond, IN --,41,--
            Hancock, MI 180,16,8.9
            Hannibal, MO --,156,--
            Harrisburg, PA --,443,--
            Harrison, NJ --,43,--
            Hastings, NB 1165,--,--
            Hattiesburg, MS 1690,28,1.7
            Haverhill, MA 3416,59,1.7
            Hazelton, PA 1912,295,15.4
            Helena, AK 665,34,5.1
            Highland Park, MI 1298,39,3
            High Point, NC --,--,--
            Hoboken, NJ 512,8,1.6
            Holland, MI --,--,--
            Holyoke, MA --,291,--
            Homestead, PA 1022,--,--
            Hoquiam, WA 926,96,10.4
            Hornell, NY 2427,70,2.9
            Hudson, NY 2300,64,2.8
            Huntington, WV --,--,--
            Hutchinson, KS 2987,187,6.3
            Iola, KS 1221,--,--
            Ironwood, MI 849,67,7.9
            Irvington, NJ 1159,15,1.3
            Ishpeming, MI --,--,--
            Ithaca, NY 2421,68,2.8
            Jackson, MI 3729,59,1.6
            Jacksonville, FL 5878,390,6.6
            Jacksonville, IL 2025,93,4.6
            Jamestown, NY 4430,51,1.2
            Janesville, WI --,21,--
            Johnstown, NY 2000,38,1.9
            Joplin, MO 3039,--,--
            Kalamazoo, MI 3988,144,3.6
            Kankakee, IL 1060,42,4
            Kearny, NJ 1280,34,2.7
            Keene, NH 964,93,9.5
            Kenosha, WI 2296,76,3.3
            Kewanee, IL --,7,--
            Kingston, NY 7896,169,2.1
            Knoxville, TN 13,652,--,--
            Kokomo, IN 233,18,7.7
            Lackawanna, NY 1474,29,2
            La Crosse, WI --,62,--
            La Fayette, IN --,--,--
            Lake Charles, LA 4856,20,.4
            Lakewood, OH 800,20,2.5
            Lancaster, OH --,--,--
            Lancaster, PA 8037,348,4.3
            Lansford, PA 326,12,3.7
            La Salle, IL 1781,19,1.1
            Latrobe, PA 1200,--,--
            Lawrence, KS 2478,12,.5
            Leavenworth, KS 1401,31,2.2
            Leominster, MA 1437,56,3.9
            Lewiston, ME --,29,--
            Lexington, KY 1486,99,6.7
            Lima, OH --,13,--
            Lincoln, NB 4721,263,5.6
            Little Falls, NY 46,--,--
            Little Rock, AK 8420,8,.1
            Logansport, IN 3023,--,--
            Long Beach, CA 3160,113,3.6
            Long Branch, NJ 380,7,1.8
            Lorain, OH 5193,5,.1
            Ludington, MI 228,3,1.3
            McKeesport, PA 1046,60,5.7
            Macon, GA 4927,25,.5
            Madison, WI 399,234,58.6
            Mahanoy City, PA 821,--,--
            Malden, MA --,--,--
            Machester, NH --,434,--
            Manistee, MI 738,4,.5
            Manitowoc, WI 4000,4,.1
            Mansfield, OH 1580,27,1.7
            Marinette, WI 893,22,2.5
            Marion, IN 1291,40,3.1
            Marion, OH 2031,30,1.5
            Marlboro, MA 732,58,7.9
            Marquette, MI 528,30,5.7
            Marshall, TX --,70,--
            Martins Ferry, OH 300,50,16.7
            Mason City, IA 1827,--,--
            Massillon, OH 883,39,4.4
            Matton, IL --,25,--
            Maywood, IL 1016,--,--
            Meadville, PA 3269,15,.5
            Medford, MA 901,54,6
            Medordd, OR 506,2,.4
            Melrose, MA 550,52,9.5
            Menominee, MI 388,31,8
            Middletown, NY 1159,37,3.2
            Middletown, OH 2000,130,6.5
            Milford, MA --,22,--
            Mishawak, IN --,23,--
            Missoula, MT 2100,139,6.6
            Mobile, AL 1389,240,17.3
            Moline, IL 2008,161,8
            Monmouth, IL 1285,4,.3
            Monroe, LA 400,30,7.5
            Montclaire, NJ 2312,64,2.8
            Montgomery, AL 1557,164,10.5
            Morganstown, WV 2539,--,--
            Morristown, NJ 766,9,1.2
            Moundsville, WV --,--,--
            Mount Vernon, NY 3109,69,2.2
            Mount Vernon, OH 700,7,1
            Muncie, IN 800,30,4.9
            Muscatine, IA --,--,--
            Muskogee, OK 708,--,--
            Nashna, NH --,91,--
            Natick, MA 1623,--,--
            Newark, OH 6793,61,.9
            New Britain, CT 6445,212,3.3
            New Brunswick, NJ 7168,--,--
            Newburgh, NY 1552,43,2.8
            Newburyport, MA 385,42,10.9
            Newcastle, IN 408,--,--
            New Castle, PA 2801,212,7.6
            New London 1653,42,2.5
            Newport, KY 1500,236,15.7
            Newport News, VA 4618,222,4.8
            Newport, RI --,65,--
            New Rochelle, NY 1500,42,2.8
            Newton, MA 5967,199,3.3
            Niagara Falls, NY 6828,376,5.5
            Norfolk, VA 8585,32,.4
            Norristown, PA --,--,--
            North Adams, MA 1328,27,2
            Northampton, MA 1659,55,3.3
            North Attleboro, MA 605,--,--
            North Braddock, PA 2801,29,1
            Northbridge, MA 4500,17,.4
            North Little Rock, AK 1388,21,1.5
            North Tonawanda, NY 1787,89,5
            Norwalk, CT 2500,88,3.5
            Norwich, CT --,65,--
            Norwood, OH 1400,--,--
            Oak Park, IL 1467,13,9
            Ogden, UT 5624,232,4.1
            Oil City, PA 2720,--,--
            Olean, NY 4637,78,1.7
            Oneonta, NY 1450,14,1
            Oshkosh, WI 2330,71,3
            Ossining, NY 1700,14,.8
            Paducah, KY 4800,--,--
            Parkersburg, WV 1022,57,5.6
            Pasadena, CA 2455,72,29.3
            Passaic, NY 3231,65,2
            Pawtucket, RI --,81,--
            Peabody, MA 462,43,9.3
            Peekskill, NY 1250,84,6.7
            Pekin, IL 1200,8,66.7
            Peoria, IL 7260,346,4.8
            Perth Amboy, NJ 484,41,8.5
            Peru, IL 975,30,3.1
            Petersburg, VA --,192,--
            Phoenixville, PA --,153,--
            Piqua, OH 4307,22,.5
            Pittsfield, MA 2943,--,--
            Pittston, PA 718,--,--
            Plainfield, NJ 2508,--,--
            Plattsburg, NY 465,91,19.6
            Plymouth, MA 1071,35,3.3
            Plymouth, PA 1273,--,--
            Pocatello, ID 246,60,24.4
            Pontiac, MI 2568,103,4
            Port Chester, NY 2373,122,5.1
            Portland, ME 6065,352,5.8
            Portsmouth, NH 4000,15,.4
            Portsmouth, OH 2792,48,1.7
            Portsmouth, VA 5662,80,1.4
            Poughkeepsie, NY --,--,--
            Punxsutawney, PA 1200,44,3.7
            Quincy, IL 2909,40,1.4
            Quincy, MA 861,184,21.4
            Rahway, NJ --,--,--
            Raleigh, NC 3055,169,5.5
            Redlands, CA 834,12,1.4
            Reno, NV 619,--,--
            Richmond, IN 749,31,4.1
            Riverside, CA 2591,4,.2
            Roanoke, VA 6788,190,2.8
            Rockford, IL --,13,--
            Rocky Mount, NC 4000,52,1.3
            Rome, GA --,110,--
            Rome, NY 1991,71,3.6
            Rutland, VT 899,7,.8
            Sacramento, CA 4517,279,6.2
            St. Charles, MO 684,14,2
            St. Cloud, MN --,20,--
            St. Joseph, MO 3910,93,2.4
            Salem, MA 905,47,5.2
            Salem, OR 631,12,1.9
            Salina, KS --,--,--
            San Angelo, TX
            San Bernardino, CA --,--,--
            San Diego, CA 4392,332,7.5
            Sandusky, OH 2513,6,.2
            Sanford, ME 2800,30,1.1
            Santa Ana, CA 1053,8,.8
            Santa Barbara, CA 1754,14,.8
            Santa Cruz, CA 939,17,1.8
            Saratoga Springs, NY 1295,65,5
            Saugus, MA --,27,--
            Sault Ste. Marie, MI 883,9,1
            Selma, AL 993,89,9
            Shawnee, OK 8689,15,.2
            Sheboygan, WI 1646,87,.5
            Shelbyville, IN 2000,38,1.9
            Sioux Falls, SD 1868,88,4.7
            Somerville, MA 2474,206,8.3
            South Bend, IN --,--,--
            Southbridge, MA --,49,--
            Spartanburg, SC --,7,--
            Springfield, IL --,--,--
            Springfield, MO --,278,--
            Springfield, OH --,167,--
            Stamford, CT 2151,110,5.1
            Staunton, VA --,8,--
            Steelton, PA --,125,--
            Steubenville, OH --,--,--
            Stillwater, MN --,7,--
            Stockton, CA 7098,85,1.2
            Streator, IL --,116,--
            Sunbury, PA 735,--,--
            Superior, WI 1520,39,2.6
            Tamaqua, PA 2500,29,1.2
            Taunton, MA 3787,237,6.3
            Terre Haute, IN 2445,36,1.5
            Tiffin, OH 389,2,.5
            Traverse City, MI 161,20,12.4
            Troy, NY 5000,146,2.9
            Tulsa, OK 665,--,--
            Tyler, TX 1407,7,.5
            Union, NJ 179,--,--
            Urbana, IL 600,3,.5
            Utica, NY 3642,330,9.1
            Vallejo, CA 3000,211,7
            Vancouver, WA 2163,10,.5
            Waltham, MA 2335,240,10.3
            Warren, OH 1305,121,9.3
            Warren, PA 1457,43,3
            Washington, PA 3524,--,--
            Waterbury, CT 6182,657,10.6
            Waterloo, IA 2112,--,--
            Watertown, MA 454,6,1.3
            Watertown, NY --,252,--
            Waterville, ME 825,--,--
            Waussau, WI 2100,81,3.9
            Webster, MA 442,31,7.0
            West Chester, PA --,--,--
            Westfield, MA 1724,108,6.3
            West Hoboken, NJ 1136,25,2.2
            West New York, NJ 783,66,8.4
            West Orange, NJ 1408,16,1.1
            Weymouth, MA 260,46,17.7
            Wheeling, WV --,--,--
            White Plains, NY 3023,75,2.5
            Wichita, KS 5345,300,5.6
            Wilmington, DE 217,217,--
            Wilmington, NC 2893,33,1.1
            Winchester, MA 1212,26,2.1
            Winona, MN --,71,--
            Winston Salem, NC --,244,--
            Winthrop, MA 1296,5,.4
            Woburn, MA 567,27,4.8
            Yakima, WA --,120,--
            York, PA 7500,250,3.3
            Zanesville, OH --,17,--
            Attached Files
            Last edited by Theresa42; June 15, 2007, 12:38 AM.
            ...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

              Some city populations from the 1910 U.S. census -- the closest census to 1918 that was taken before that pandemic (the next one was 1920):

              Akron city, OH........... 69,067 (1910)
              Bayonne city, NJ......... 55,545 (1910)
              Brockton city, MA........ 56,878 (1910)
              Duluth city MN........... 78,466 (1910)
              East St. Louis city, IL.. 58,547 (1910)
              Elizabeth city, NJ....... 73,409 (1910)
              Erie city, PA............ 66,525 (1910)
              Fort Wayne city, IN...... 63,933 (1910)
              Harrisburg city, PA...... 64,186 (1910)
              Hoboken city, NJ......... 70,324 (1910)
              Holyoke city, MA......... 57,730 (1910)
              Jacksonville city, FL.... 57,699 (1910)
              Manchester city, NH...... 70,063 (1910)
              Norfolk city, VA......... 67,452 (1910)
              Passaic city, NJ......... 54,773 (1910)
              Peoria city, IL.......... 66,950 (1910)
              Portland city, ME........ 58,571 (1910)
              St. Joseph city, MO...... 77,403 (1910)
              Somerville city, MA...... 77,236 (1910)
              South Bend city, IN...... 53,684 (1910)
              Terre Haute city, IN..... 58,157 (1910)
              Troy city, NY............ 76,813 (1910)
              Utica city, NY........... 74,419 (1910)
              Waterbury city, CT....... 73,141 (1910)

              http://www.census.gov/population/doc...0027/tab14.txt
              ...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

                Some more population figures based on U.S. census data:

                Abilene, TX
                1910 26,293
                1920 24,081
                http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/popmd/pm0040.htm

                Adams (county), MS
                1910 25,265
                1920 22,183
                http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adams_C...i#Demographics

                Alameda city, CA
                1910 23,383
                1920 28,806
                http://www.abag.ca.gov/abag/overview...o/alameda.html

                Altoona, PA
                1910 108,858
                1920 128,334
                http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/popmd/pm0280.htm

                Amarillo, TX
                1910 15,736
                1920 20,385
                http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/popmd/pm0320.htm

                Ann Arbor, MI
                1910 110,357
                1920 114,809
                http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/popmd/pm0440.htm

                Anniston, AL
                1910 39,115
                1920 47,822
                http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/popmd/pm0450.htm

                Asheville, NC
                1910 69,930
                1920 84,231
                http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/popmd/pm0480.htm

                El Paso, TX
                1910 52,599
                1920 101,877
                http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/popmd/pm2320.htm

                San Angelo, TX
                1910 17,882
                1920 15,210
                http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/popmd/pm7200.htm

                Tyler, TX
                1910 41,746
                1920 46,769
                http://recenter.tamu.edu/data/popmd/pm8640.htm
                ...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

                  hey, thanks !

                  I also found coordinates of ~2000 US-cities and 1918-population
                  of ~250 US-cities , I hope the spellings are correct and
                  I can merge the data.

                  I also sent email to Calif. state library and will send one to NC-state library.
                  The data (monthly deaths by city) exists, just not computer readable.

                  Could be useful to examine seasonality too.
                  Apparantly San Francisco has milder flu due to better clima,
                  12C in winter vs. 0C at East coast.
                  Hmm, maybe weather-data for the cities can be collected too...

                  NC library has other interesting 1918 data too,
                  see here:

                  http://statelibrary.dcr.state.nc.us/...CInfluenza.htm

                  click the bars on the left for many further documents from 1918.

                  e.g. this one:
                  http://statelibrary.dcr.state.nc.us/...USPHR46All.pdf
                  I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                  my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

                    Originally posted by gsgs View Post
                    hey, thanks !

                    I also found coordinates of ~2000 US-cities and 1918-population
                    of ~250 US-cities , I hope the spellings are correct and
                    I can merge the data.

                    I also sent email to Calif. state library and will send one to NC-state library.
                    The data (monthly deaths by city) exists, just not computer readable.
                    Cool! Lemme know if you need more typing/transcribing -- I'm a pretty fast typist. That took me just about an hour, so not so bad.
                    ...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

                      Originally posted by Theresa42 View Post
                      Cool! Lemme know if you need more typing/transcribing -- I'm a pretty fast typist. That took me just about an hour, so not so bad.

                      yes, I found some more data, e.g. monthly from 1918,1919
                      or state - data.

                      But maybe OCR is possible and let me wait what the library people say,
                      what I can get...
                      They definately have deaths from all causes, maybe even weekly ,
                      that's useful for 1918. But for the other years I want influenza/pneumonia
                      deaths.




                      ----------------------------------------------


                      http://statelibrary.dcr.state.nc.us/...19.pdf#Table10
                      page 2 , cities - table --###done
                      page 3f, together with 28f : deaths per state rural vs. cities, influenza and all deaths , 4 numbers per state
                      page 12-13 , total deaths 1919 by month and city


                      same for 1918 :
                      http://statelibrary.dcr.state.nc.us/...18.pdf#Table10
                      presumably other years are in the library too

                      http://statelibrary.dcr.state.nc.us/...USPHR47All.pdf
                      page 6
                      6 cities, autumn 1918, weekly


                      http://statelibrary.dcr.state.nc.us/...USPHR35All.pdf
                      page 4f , cases 1920 by city, weekly
                      page7f , excess influenza by cities, 1918, 12weeks



                      age and sex and races data not yet considered. Could be useful to determine whether the
                      virus has changed, how much pre-1918 was similar to 1918 or nowadays H3N2


                      http://statelibrary.dcr.state.nc.us/...R34JuneDec.pdf
                      page5 , weekly 1918, 13 British cities
                      page6 , weekly 1918 , 14 European and Indian cities
                      page13 , weekly 1917,1918 , London,Paris,Dublin


                      compare with weather data ! Or other weather dependent disease



                      influenza+pneumonia is preferred, not just influenza.
                      Some cities include influenza-->pneumonia deaths
                      in the influenza statistics, some in the pneumonia statistics.
                      Last edited by gsgs; June 15, 2007, 12:30 PM.
                      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                      my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

                        OK, there were some errors and my coordinates-data was
                        bad, but finally I have 398 cities with coordinates,
                        1918 flu-cases and mortality now.
                        No weather and population data yet adapted for computer-reading.

                        As as a first test, see below for 1918-mortality. This probably
                        has been done before, but the data was not public, now it is.
                        http://magictour.free.fr/1918x.3


                        I hope, you can recognize the shape of the USA.
                        The length of the bars is proportional to the CFR.
                        Only larger cities with >1000 cases. Madison,WI had
                        particularly high CFR :399 cases, 234 deaths (error?)

                        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

                          Madison,WI had particularly high CFR :399 cases, 234 deaths (error?)
                          Madison is the capital of the state of Wisconsin and there is a large university there (founded in 1848). Maybe either of these, or both, have to do with the high CFR. ??

                          Also, there was a Camp Randall in Madison -- actually on the university grounds. It was a U.S. Civil War prison camp that was used for training during WWI -- perhaps a lot of soldiers fell ill and died there?:

                          http://www.secondwi.com/wisconsin_ci...mpscamp_ba.htm
                          ...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

                            only 400 cases in Madison, seems that not many people lived there
                            in 1918 despite the University and camp.
                            Princeton did particularly well in 1918, AFAIR.

                            OK, I typed in the yearly flu-death-rates for 50 cities.



                            correlation-coefficients *100 of
                            influenza-deaths per million population in 50 cities for years:

                            Code:
                                 1919 18  17  16  15  14  13  12  11  6-10
                            ---------------------------------------------
                            1919: --  27  36  19  36  43  45  42  32  36                                        
                            1918: 27  --  31  49  23  31  28  28  30  33                                         
                            1917: 36  31  --  57  81  76  69  81  71  68                                        
                            1916: 19  49  57  --  47  52  60  42  61  53                                         
                            1915: 36  23  81  47  --  84  76  79  77  74                                        
                            1914: 43  31  76  52  84  --  84  87  74  83                                        
                            1913: 45  28  69  60  76  84  --  82  80  85                                         
                            1912: 42  28  81  42  79  87  82  --  80  86                                        
                            1911: 32  30  71  61  77  74  80  80  --  82                                        
                            6-10: 36  33  68  53  74  83  85  86  82  --
                            all correlations are positive.
                            1916 correlation with earlier years is lower.
                            1918 also, while 1918 with 1916 is higher than with other earlier years.
                            This could indicate, that the 1916 outbreak was a mixture
                            of H3N8(?) and H1N1 already, so 1918 H1N1 or similar virus
                            would have been around already in 1916 and the 1916
                            outbreak was already a change, which was then dramatically
                            completed in 1918.

                            Monthly data would be more useful here , also pneumonia+influenza
                            instead of pneumonia only.
                            Also maybe comparing with pre-1889 data.
                            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                            my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker

                              I FOUND ANOTHER ANALYSIS BY SELWYN D. COLLINS, Ph.D.
                              (US NAVY)

                              It has a LOT of charts, which I don't know how to post. Maybe someone could start another thread under Collins name?
                              It has nice charts for Influenza/pneumonia, 1887-1956:

                              http://www.history.navy.mil/library/...za_collins.htm

                              There are 3 kinds of people: those who can post charts & those who can't.

                              Comment

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