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1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

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  • gsgs
    replied
    I typed in the weekly deaths in major US-cities Feb-May 1918, , the supposed 1st wave of the 1918 pandemic. NY,Bridgeport, CT were early, as in the 2nd wave, suggesting that it came by ship (from where ??) Boston , New England is unclear, did they have it even earlier or not at all ?
    http://magictour.free.fr/usfeb18e.GIF

    Leave a comment:


  • gsgs
    replied
    Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

    see, how the deaths-age-structure normalized after 1918




    ratio for England 1918 by age1groups:

    http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/att...1&d=1398921167


    -------------------------------------------------------------
    [picture 1918ag5.gif was replaced , now also showing 1957 and 1968]
    Attached Files

    Leave a comment:


  • gsgs
    replied
    Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

    all the old public heath reports are now available at pubmed,
    weekly since 1896


    SALVADOR.
    Influenza.
    Epidemic influenza was reported, September 27, 1918, to be preva-
    lent in the Republic of Salvador.
    In the city of Sani Salv-ador about
    20,000 cases were stated to have OcCUiTed.

    Infuenza was reported present at MArlm,( Swedlen, (huring the first
    two weeks in September, 1918, with .521 eases.

    Influenza was reported epi(lemic at Barevlona, -Spain, October 9,
    1918, with 5,000casesand many fatalities.

    During the monitlh of September, 1918, 482 cases of in-ifluenza, with
    433 deaths, were reported at Brest, France. On October 18, 1918, the
    epidemic was stated to be iniereasinig.

    The steamship Makai M.aru from San Francisco, Cal., arrived at
    Honolulu, Hawaii, with a history of 27 cases of influenza occurring
    among the crew from October 7, 1918, to the date of the arrival of
    the vessel at Honolulu.

    Sep.13
    Epidemic influenza has been reported in several countries in Europe
    during the summer-of 1918, more especially in Spain.
    According to press dispatches, 8,000,000 persons have suffered from the disease in
    that country.
    Most of the cases reported to the Public Health.Service have been
    from France, England, Norway, and Switzerland, although a mildform
    has been reported in Canton, China.
    It has appeared at Prince Edward Island, Canada, and in the Island of Guadeloupe in the West
    Indies, probably an extension from European ports.

    On September 12, 1918, a sudden outbreak of influenza was re-
    portedatNew London, Conn., andvicinity, about 60case
    having
    been1 notified.

    On September 12, 1918,
    a sudden outbreak of influenza was re-
    ported in Boston, Mass., and vicinity, where more than 1,400 cases
    of the disease have been notified since the begnning of the outbreak
    about August 28, 1918.
    Many of the cases are of severe type, and
    pneumonia has developed in about 10 per cent of the case.
    About
    25 or 30 deaths have resulted.

    4pidemicinfluenza was reported present., August 3, 1918, at
    BAsse Terre, Guadeloupe.

    Epidemic influenza, with ?n estimated number of about 1,500
    cases, was reported present '*
    Christiania, Norway, July 13, 1918.
    The outbreak of the epidemic occumed about June 15,, 191
    The
    character of the disease was stated to, remble that ofgiip

    Epidemic influenza was reported still present at Birmingham,
    England, during the week ended July 6, 1918, with 96 deaths attrib-
    uted to the disease.

    An outbreak of influenza, with many fatal cases, was reported at
    Bern,Switzerland, July 30, 1918.

    Fevers of an undetermined nature were reported during April and
    May at various points from Norfolk to Louisiana.
    An examination
    of the records and reports of the physicians who have treated these
    cases leads to the belief that these fevers were mainly influenza of
    mild type.

    -----------------------------------------------

    Massachusetts death statistics is available in annually pdfs since 1840

    Leave a comment:


  • gsgs
    replied
    Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

    the 1918 USA mortality statistical pdf file at
    http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsushis...tatsh_1918.pdf
    has 74 MB and 593 pages, so it takes some minutes to download.
    It resides on my HD under the name 1918st.pdf, together with the files
    from 1905st.pdf to 1959st.pdf for the other years.
    Since 1959 we have all the anonymized death certificates available
    online , see the mortality thread (link), although since 2004 the
    geographical data is removed from them.


    The tables from 1918st are not available in computer-readable form,
    it would be useful to have them. OCR doesn't work so well and produces
    many errors on that text.
    You have to wonder how they typed in all the numbers in those
    early years without computers !
    ~ million numbers, several million digits, ~500 hours for a human.

    Here are the tables-descriptions from 1918st:

    ----------------------------
    age related:
    (page=page in pdf,pages long,entries,TABLE-number,description)
    144=138,026,035728,TABLE 3. --color2,area6+state30+cities580,agegroup29
    170=164,036,027144,TABLE 4. --race13,area6+states30,sex2,age29
    258=251,046,014500,TABLE 7x. --color3,cause189(250),sex2,age29
    294=287,138,783000,TABLE 8. --color3,cause189(250),area6+states30,age29
    432=425,051,114912,TABLE 9. --cause38,cities56,(color3),age18

    ----------------------------------
    monthly data:
    123=118,010,007969,TABLE 1. --month13,area3+state30+cities580
    483=476,038,071760,TABLE 10. --area6+states30+cities56,(color3),cause20,month13
    --------------------------------------
    with cause of death:
    114=111,004,002268,TABLE II. --#+rate2,years6,cause189
    236=230,022,012474,TABLE 6. -- area3+states30+,rural2,cause189
    258=251,022,014500,TABLE 7. --all1,cause189(250),sex2,age29
    270=263,012,014500,TABLE 7A. --white1,cause189(250),sex2,age29
    282=275,012,014500,TABLE 7B. --colored1,cause189(250),sex2,age29
    294=287,138,783000,TABLE 8. --cause189(250),color3,area6+states30,age29

    118=115,005,001178,TABLE III.--states31,cause rate38
    206=200,030,046816,TABLE 5. --area6+states30+cities580,color2,cause38
    432=425,051,114912,TABLE 9. --cause38,cities56,(color3),age18
    483=476,038,071760,TABLE 10. --area6+states30+cities56,(color3),cause20,month13
    521=514,052,111780,TABLE 11. --<1,area6+states30+cities56,(col),cause27,age15




    -------------------------------------------------
    short descriptions:

    1918 Deaths (exclusive of Stillbirths) in the registration area
    (exclusive of Hawaii),

    094=091,002,000333,TABLE IA. --race3,rural3,states37
    096=093,018,010000,TABLE IB. --regions cities2500,residence status4
    114=111,004,002268,TABLE II. --#+rate2,years6,cause189
    118=115,005,001178,TABLE III.--states31,cause rate38
    123=118,010,007969,TABLE 1. --month13,area3+state30+cities580
    133=128,011,008624,TABLE 2. --area6+states30+cities580,race4+nativity10
    144=138,026,035728,TABLE 3. --color2,area6+state30+cities580,agegroup29
    170=164,036,027144,TABLE 4. --area6+states30,sex2,race13,agegroup29
    206=200,030,046816,TABLE 5. --area6+states30+cities580,color2,cause38
    236=230,022,012474,TABLE 6. -- area3+states30+,rural2,cause189
    258=251,022,014500,TABLE 7. --all1,cause189(250),sex2,age29
    270=263,012,014500,TABLE 7A. --white1,cause189(250),sex2,age29
    282=275,012,014500,TABLE 7B. --colored1,cause189(250),sex2,age29
    294=287,138,783000,TABLE 8. --cause189(250),color3,area6+states30,age29
    432=425,051,114912,TABLE 9. --cause38,cities56,(color3),age18
    483=476,038,071760,TABLE 10. --area6+states30+cities56,(color3),cause20,month13
    521=514,052,111780,TABLE 11. --<1,area6+states30+cities56,(col),cause27,age15

    MAPS.

    008,Growth of the registration area for deaths: 1880 to 1918

    DIAGRAMS.

    010,Percentages which the population and land area of the registration
    area formed of the total population and land area of the United States
    for the years 1880, 1890, and 1900 to 1918

    010,Per cent of deaths in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii)
    by color, by nativity of white persons, and by parent nativity of the
    native white: 1918

    012,Number of deaths in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii)
    at all ages, under 1 year of age, and from 1 to 4 years of age,
    for each of the years 1900 to 1918

    012,Per cent of deaths in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii)
    under 1 year of age, from 1 to 4 years, and 5 years - and over,
    for each of the years 1900 to 1918

    016, General death rates of the United States (registration area)
    and certain foreign countries for each of the years from 1900 to 1917

    022,Death rates from certain important causes of death in the registration
    area of the United States for each of the years from 1900 to 1918

    SUPPLEMENT.

    574,HAWAII
    589,SOLDIERS, SAILORS, AND MARINES
    594,ADDITIONAL DEATHS








    --------------------------complete text of content--------------



    DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
    BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
    SAM. L. ROGERS, DIRECTOR

    MORTALITY STATISTICS 1918
    NINETEENTH ANNUAL REPORT


    CONTENT


    TEXT
    009,Introduction
    ...
    049,CONTRIBUTORY CAUSES OF DEATH IN RELATION TO PRMARY CAUSES OF
    DEATH in THE REGISTRATION AREA (EXCLUSIVE OF HAWAII AND OFSOLDIERS
    SAILORS,AND MARINES):1917

    SUMMARY AND RATE TABLES.

    094,TABLE IA.--Deaths (exclusive of Stillbirths) in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii),
    its main subdivisions, each registration state (by cities and rural districts),
    and each group of registration cities in nonregistration cities

    096,TABLE IB--Deaths of nonresidents in relation to total deaths in each city and each
    rural unit in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii)

    114,TABLE II--Deaths (exclusive of stillbirths) and death rates per 100,000 population,
    by cause, according to the detailed International List, for the registration area
    (exclusive of Hawaii) :1915 to 1918

    118,TABLE III--Death rates per 100,000 population in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii)
    and each registration state, from important causes of death

    GENERAL TABLES

    123,TABLE 1.--Deaths (exclusive of stillbirths) in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii)
    and certain subdivisions,
    ---by month of death

    133,TABLE 2.-- Deaths (exclusive of stillbirths) in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii)
    and certain subdivisions,
    ---by color, general nativity, and parent nativity

    144,TABLE 3.--Deaths (exclusive of stillbirths) in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii)
    and certain subdivisions
    ---by color and age

    170,TABLE 4.--Deaths (exclusive of stillbirths) in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii),
    its main subdivisions, and each registration state,
    ---by age, sex, color, general nativity, and parent nativity of decedent: 1918

    206,TABLE 5.--Deaths (exclusive of stillbirths) in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii) and certain subdivisions, by color of
    decedent andcause of death: 1918

    236,TABLE 6.--Deaths (exclusive of stillbirths) in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii), its main subdivisions, and in cities and rural districts of each registration state,
    ---from each cause and class of causes

    258,TABLE 7.--Deaths (exclusive of stillbirths) in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii)
    ---from each cause and class of causes, by sex and age
    270,TABLE 7A.-- = Table 7 for White persons
    282,TABLE 7B.-- = Table 7 for Colored persons

    294,TABLE 8.--Deaths (exclusive of stillbirths in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii),
    all registration states, and each registration state,
    ---from each cause and class of causes, by age of decedent:

    432,TABLE 9.--Deaths (exclusive of stillbirths) in each city of 100,000 population or more in 1910,
    ---by cause of death (abridged International List) and by age

    483,TABLE 10.--Deaths (exclusive of stillbirths) in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii),
    registration states, and cities of 100,000 population or more in 1910,
    ---from important causes, by month of death

    521,TABLE 11.--Deaths (exclusive of stillbirths) in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii),
    registration states, and cities of 100,000 population or more in 1910,
    from important causes, for certain subdivisions of the fist year of life

    MAPS.

    008,Growth of the registration area for deaths: 1880 to 1918

    DIAGRAMS.

    010,Percentages which the population and land area of the registration area formed of the
    total population and land area of the United States for the years 1880, 1890, and 1900 to 1918

    010,Per cent of deaths in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii) by color, by nativity
    of white persons, and by parent nativity of the native white: 1918

    012,Number of deaths in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii) at all ages, under 1 year of age,
    and from 1 to 4 years of age, for each of the years 1900 to 1918

    012,Per cent of deaths in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii) under 1 year of age,
    from 1 to 4 years, and 5 years and over, for each of the years 1900 to 1918

    016, General death rates of the United States (registration area) and certain foreign countries
    for each of the years from 1900 to 1917

    022,Death rates from certain important causes of death in the registration area of the United States
    for each of the years from 1900 to 1918

    SUPPLEMENT.

    574,HAWAII
    589,SOLDIERS, SAILORS, AND MARINES
    594,ADDITIONAL DEATHS

    Leave a comment:


  • gsgs
    replied
    Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

    there are lots of genealogy, family finder , historical heritage databases now.

    But not for research !
    They do have the data, they could easily show daily time-series of deaths by age-groups,
    maybe even by cause of death for cities,counties,states.
    From 1918 and earlier.

    E.g. here for Kentucky 1911-2000, ~3M records, 43711 for 1918
    http://vitals.rootsweb.ancestry.com/ky/death/search.cgi
    but they forbid to download in bulk

    Missouri 1910-1962
    http://www.sos.mo.gov/archives/resources/birthdeath/
    but only by date and location, not by age or cause of death

    Missouri 1880-1910 with age

    Missouri seems to allow bulk download and posting the charts here ?!



    picture below:
    1914-1921, MA28,daily deaths from all causes

    the data for <1910 is bad, not computer-readable, many gaps

    http://www.germanroots.com/deathrecords.html


    -------------------------------------------------------------

    http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsushis...tatsh_1918.pdf
    http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsushis...tatsh_1919.pdf
    http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsushis...tatsh_1920.pdf

    --------------------------------------------------------------------
    1889-1890 :
    http://origem.info/FIC/pdf/03_Valtat_2011_Vaccine.pdf
    .................................................. ...................
    Attached Files

    Leave a comment:


  • Sally Furniss
    replied
    Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

    Originally posted by gsgs View Post
    life expectancy Sweden by year of death



    {1773 famine , 1809 war , 1857 influenza? , 1918 influenza pandemic}


    hard to imagine that this stable trend since 1950 should suddenly reverse now...
    from a friend of FT

    1857 saw the last major swedish dysenteri epidemic and cholera epidemic which may in part explain the dip. 1857: Dysentery 10650 Cholera 3961 Pop 3680295 Deaths 101491

    Cholera figures here: http://landberga.se/medicinhistoria/kolera.html
    Dysentery figures here: http://www2.hist.uu.se/historikermot...stenbrandt.pdf (graph showing dysentery mortality as a percentage of total mortality)
    No tuberculosis data due to changes in death cause registartion between 1831 and 1859

    Leave a comment:


  • gsgs
    replied
    Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

    collection of mortality figures in several countries:

    http://magictour.free.fr/mort1.JPG

    Leave a comment:


  • Laidback Al
    replied
    Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

    Originally posted by gsgs View Post
    I have some of the .pdfs on my HD, is it appropriate to
    upload to FT ?

    I believe there is a 9.54 Mb upload limit for pdf files here at FT.

    Leave a comment:


  • gsgs
    replied
    Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

    I have some of the .pdfs on my HD, is it appropriate to
    upload to FT ?

    Leave a comment:


  • mixin
    replied
    Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

    I couldn't even get anything from your first link using the Wayback Machine.

    Maybe they haven't removed them permanently.

    Leave a comment:


  • gsgs
    replied
    Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

    apparantly the State Library of North Carolina has removed most of their influenza 1918 documents.

    3 documents are still here:

    http://digitalstatelibnc.cdmhost.com...t&CISOROOT=all


    here a bibliography:
    http://virus.stanford.edu/uda/flubib.html

    Leave a comment:


  • mixin
    replied
    Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

    Looks like the men's life expectancy corresponds with the Russo-Ottoman wars. Dates from Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-T...War,_1710-1711

    156870 157172 167681 16861700 168789
    169596 171011 173539 176874 178792
    180612 182129 182829 185356 (Crimean War)
    187778 191417 (World War I) 191718

    I wonder what caused the 2 small increases for women prior to 1850? And why have they been declining since the '80's?

    Leave a comment:


  • gsgs
    replied
    Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

    life expectancy Sweden by year of death



    {1773 famine , 1809 war , 1857 influenza? , 1918 influenza pandemic}


    hard to imagine that this stable trend since 1950 should suddenly reverse now...

    Leave a comment:


  • gsgs
    replied
    Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

    I mean, people 5-45 years old won't usually die in 1918 from influenza
    without also having bacterial pneumonia, (I think)
    Or cyanosis/cytokene storm.

    So I assume the doctor often had the choice to write
    "influenza" or "pneumonia" as cause of death.

    Leave a comment:


  • Anne
    replied
    Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

    hi gsgs, I don't understand what you mean :

    Of cause, when people die from H1N1-influenza, what else can be
    the direct cause than pneumonia ? (besides cyanosis)

    Leave a comment:

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