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1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs
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1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs
Last edited by gsgs; June 14, 2007, 04:30 PM.I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgTTags: None
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Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker
does someone want to share his contribution to (pre?)pandemic
research by typing the numbers into computer ?
I already did the Massachusetts, NY, SF, Cleveland data.
The last big table with the US-cities would be useful ,
flu-cases and inhabitants needed. So we can make
urban/rural statistics, which way it spread,
how much delaying did work etc.
monthly deaths from pneumonia/influenza per 1M people in Cleveland 1910-1918
1362,1983,1800,2230,2135,1483,1079, 542, 482, 518, 856,1380,1900
1065,1743,1659,1641,1550,1034, 775, 405, 506, 671, 810,1090, 932
1146,1636,1412,1597,1427,1262, 917, 552, 750, 306, 888,1101,1854
1319,1798,2051,2175,1525,1474,1075, 681, 506, 743,1153,1309,1286
1172,1601,1752,1970,2018,1399, 533, 516, 463, 590, 664,1160,1437
1627,1665,3331,2526,2018,1093, 774, 555, 787, 592,1218,1702,3368
1985,5450,2092,2638,2669,2112, 866, 576, 821, 757,1536,1750,2429
2109,3440,3860,4150,2338,2080,1458, 902, 664, 721,1600,1529,2670
5480,1613,1785,1904,3663,1426, 600, 625, 435, 480,18120,21350,13760
monthly deaths from pneumonia/influenza per 1M people in New York City 1910-1918
2293,3278,3002,3433,3035,2254,1621,1255,1080,1269, 1547,2116,3659
2177,3213,3256,3590,3387,2372,1372,1158, 972,1076,1450,1950,2408
1986,2665,2945,2870,2546,2383,1535,1123, 990, 949,1578,1785,2516
1997,2650,3530,3422,2427,2251,1589,1135,1019,1005, 1184,1729,2133
1843,2473,2930,3194,2418,2111,1316, 925, 861, 881,1100,1629,2343
2027,2537,2322,3254,3445,2121,1720,1032, 892, 908,1204,1671,3244
1897,4025,2617,2520,2109,1946,1331,1137,1005, 877,1164,1540,2421
1919,3179,3163,2373,2212,2024,1228, 726, 784, 895,1276,1855,2377
6364,3484,2390,5480,4321,2014,1054, 813, 718,35160,3516,12506,5498
monthly deaths from pneumonia/influenza per 1M people in San Francisco 1910-1918
1286,1999,1340,1689,1482,1323,1016,1098,1126, 873,1182,1105,1182
1357,2073,1500,1356, 686, 912,1500, 885, 830,1350,1327,1440,2709
1260,2363,1916,1820,1319, 869, 477, 516, 679, 926, 842,1375,1983
1396,2617,1921,1949,1435,1228, 910, 668, 721, 993,1255,1104,1949
1226,1917,1398,1785,1329,1076, 841, 788, 630,1031, 709, 977,2310
1332,2146,1374,1188,1254,1136,1014, 904,1110,1387,1162,1174,2118
1332,2430,1656,1626,1413,1016, 840, 889, 711, 761, 889,1443,2210
1275,2100,1854,1300,1214,1350, 722, 800, 775,1188,1000,1446,1675
7130,2313,2043,2781,3102,1526,1398, 787, 738,1170,35340,20698,13310
San Francisco almost always peaks in December, while East coast often have a Feb.,Mar. high.
2 peaks could mean two strains, flu-A and flu-B or 2 different H3s, H3N8, or even H2,H1 ?
The panflu-strain could have been present years before 1918.I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT
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Re: analysis by Frost,Sydenstricker
How interesting, gsgs! Do you mean into an Excel spreadsheet? I don't have time just at the moment, but if no one else gets to it first, I might have time later today (say in 8-10 hours from now). Which table(s) were you thinking of?...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes
Comment
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Re: analysis by Frost,Sydenstricker
no Excel, just plain text or html. Send email or post.
They have lots of tables, at the moment
I was thinking at the last one with the
cities.
But we also need the inhabitants in 1918.
And the geographical coordinates.
Needn't be 100% exact, not all the cities needed.
So, the names, flu-cases in 1918, flu-deaths in 1918.
The other data should be available somewhere...I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT
Comment
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Re: analysis by Frost,Sydenstricker
Code:monthly deaths from pneumonia per million people 1887-1916 in Massachusetts 195,167, 19,226,161, 77, 55, 41, 56, 90,148,153 247,251,264,213,164, 80, 55, 40, 62,114, 98,139 179,163,211,198,149, 75, 53, 52, 54,106,132,193 478,177,176,201,127, 85, 62, 48, 50, 94,118,183 206,164,206,251,239,101, 59, 40, 40, 77,138,364 615,252,231,214,170, 83, 54, 42, 68, 85,125,190 273,254,286,331,273,111, 80, 50, 61, 98,143,319 328,199,227,185,149, 85, 51, 51, 68, 82,113,136 191,344,308,209,144, 76, 56, 53, 47,105,134,173 195,207,249,259,187,103, 76, 45, 76,107,127,188 211,249,315,197,152,102, 79, 45, 60,117,131,169 188,171,185,187,157, 66, 60, 48, 56,106,128,210 375,258,206,184,140, 89, 50, 48, 58, 82,132,190 227,211,420,305,176, 87, 53, 43, 53, 62, 99,147 226,266,262,199,139, 77, 34, 34, 57, 91,142,151 157,189,199,158,155, 80, 62, 53, 57,118,145,206 252,258,254,181,168, 82, 70, 45, 46, 77,133,189 226,227,241,212,142, 67, 59, 44, 65, 94,150,195 247,277,236,171,155, 85, 54, 48, 62, 89,158,200 225,219,241,217,149, 51, 62, 50, 60, 94,138,210 255,244,234,183,143, 95, 51, 51, 71, 93,127,269 266,222,211,194,135, 66, 49, 58, 64, 92,124,176 221,200,261,291,160, 97, 51, 50, 54, 89,136,183 241,207,275,233,169, 97, 73, 63, 91,123,170,236 226,271,239,202,169, 72, 67, 51, 67, 90,118,162 198,202,212,164,133, 62, 50, 41, 58, 95,105,199 235,228,249,193,171,107, 62, 54, 67, 83,104,168 229,201,232,204,152, 82, 51, 55, 60,101,126,168 178,193,285,277,136, 66, 71, 58, 60, 88, 98,221 356,255,230,173,140, 74, 53, 41, 59, 76,128,183 monthly deaths from influenza per million people 1887-1916 in Massachusetts 90,5,14,28,14,5,0,0,0,5,10,5,5 51,14,5,5,0,5,0,0,0,5,14,0,5 123,9,9,14,14,5,5,5,0,0,9,0,55 1831,1095,290,143,94,40,36,22,4,18,22,27,40 2374,39,39,100,387,465,157,52,52,52,22,26,1008 4105,2433,704,302,183,110,72,51,17,21,38,68,47 1227,58,70,120,257,207,46,17,12,4,0,46,390 1497,741,316,138,169,40,20,16,8,16,20,16,36 1810,79,450,697,329,111,36,24,8,8,4,24,36 581,93,62,116,105,46,39,15,12,4,27,19,43 1440,82,242,568,250,102,27,15,23,15,27,27,61 856,59,59,156,130,148,37,11,22,7,19,26,182 2072,934,581,218,105,51,29,7,4,7,33,18,84 2527,121,150,920,923,185,68,21,7,11,11,32,78 1894,432,636,408,151,84,46,14,4,21,18,25,77 589,59,87,90,69,73,24,21,14,3,24,45,82 1265,157,308,366,161,82,38,14,10,3,21,34,70 1026,145,206,280,138,78,27,20,7,10,17,34,64 1469,275,458,348,175,86,30,7,7,3,3,20,56 657,113,107,129,78,36,6,19,13,6,16,16,117 1613,361,348,228,104,70,22,3,3,3,19,54,399 1042,448,210,151,86,31,12,6,3,19,15,22,37 716,76,193,230,88,36,24,3,0,3,15,21,27 740,139,101,175,151,53,9,9,0,3,21,35,44 463,87,96,90,79,41,3,9,0,3,12,6,49 693,146,135,106,60,26,20,17,9,9,26,17,123 575,200,76,85,51,34,14,0,17,14,20,25,39 358,75,39,75,64,36,14,6,0,6,3,17,25 634,79,60,98,188,49,16,8,5,8,11,22,87 1450,632,304,167,75,56,32,16,13,5,16,43,89
Last edited by gsgs; June 14, 2007, 01:38 PM.I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT
Comment
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Re: analysis by Frost,Sydenstricker
Originally posted by gsgs View Postno Excel, just plain text or html. Send email or post.
They have lots of tables, at the moment I was thinking at the last one with the cities.
(...)
So, the names, flu-cases in 1918, flu-deaths in 1918.
Influenza only (not incld. pneumonia or influenza + pneumonia) - 1918
City, State Cases reported,deaths registered,fatalities per 100 cases
Abilene, TX --,14,--
Adams, MS 1722,56,3.3
Akron, OH 4551,630,13.8
Alameda, CA 2783,94,3.4
Alliance, OH --,88,--
Alpena, MI 435,11,2.5
Alton, IL 120094,7.8
Altoona, PA 7807,38,.5
Amarillo, TX --,4,--
Amesbury, MS 18,55,--
Amsterdam, NY 4245,52,1.2
Anacona, MT 626,47,7.5
Anderson, IN 200,10,5
Anderson, SC 400,113,28.3
Ann Arbor, MI 824,--,--
Anniston, AL 1938,9,.5
Appleton, WI 1500,4,.3
Arlington, MS 2384,29,1.2
Asbury Park, NJ 1304,9,.7
Ashville, NC 4744,127,2.7
Ashland, WI 410,64,15.6
Ashtabula, OH 1135,56,4.9
Astoria, OR 2800,--,--
Atlantic City, NJ --,327,--
Attleboro, MS 1042,44,4.2
Auburn, NY 4679,145,3.1
Augusta, ME 493,33,6.7
Aurora, IL 2500,35,1.4
Austin, TX --,--,--
Bakersfield, CA 872,--,--
Bangor, ME 1600,110,6.9
Barre, VT 2649,189,7.1
Baton Rouge, LA --,65,--
Battle Creek, MI 1559,37,2.4
Bay City, MI 3496,212,6.1
Bayonne, NJ 4749,--,--
Beatrice, NE 1537,101,6.6
Beaumont, TX 1,90,--
Bedford, IN 1409,--,--
Belleville, NJ --,--,--
Bellingham, WA 2000,82,4.1
Beloit, WI 3315,120,3.6
Benton Harbor, MI 3000,--,--
Berkeley, CA 4090,146,3.6
Berlin, NH 3449,158,4.6
Beverly, MS 730,19,2.6
Billings, MT --,27,--
Binghamton, NY 3085,229,7.4
Bloomfield, NJ 1213,29,2.4
Bloomington, IN 451,4,.89
Bluefied, WV 1059,--,--
Boone, IA 1649,--,--
Boulder, CO 1803,105,5.8
Braddock, PA 4000,246,6.1
Bradford, PA 796,35,4.4
Bridgeton, NJ 2070,42,2.0
Bristol, CT 1762,74,4.2
Brockton, MA 2625,389,14.8
Brookline, MA 2639,108,4.1
Brownsville, TX --,40,--
Bruswick, GA 4788,16,.33
Burlington, IA --,7,--
Burlington, VT 1810,161,8.9
Butler, PA 11,315,--,--
Butte, MT --,--,--
Cadillac, MI --,17,--
Cairo, IL 1443,108,7.5
Cambridge, OH --,--,--
Canton, IL 3100,70,2.3
Canton, OH --,322,--
Cape Giardeau, MO 1428,28,1.4
Carbondale, PA 893,27,3.0
Carlisle, PA 3161,--,--
Cedar Rapids, IA 1457,93,6.4
Centralia, IL 939,--,--
Chambersburg, PA --,200,--
Champaign, IL --,--,--
Charleroi, PA 2025,--,--
Charleston, WV 2868,228,7.9
Charlotte, NC 3281,201,6.1
Chelsea, MA 1031,329,31.9
Cheyenne, WY 1800,105,5.8
Chicopee, MA 597,7,1.2
Chillicothe, OH 2186,49,2.4
Cicero, IL --,--,--
Cleburne, TX 4275,10,.2
Clinton, IA 1277,--,--
Clinton, MA 2700,72,2.7
Coatesville, PA 2500,121,4.8
Coffeyville, KS 1073,14,1.3
Cohoes, NY --,--,--
Colorado Springs, CO 3310,69,2.1
Columbus, MS --,21,--
Concord, NH 1331,18,1.4
Connellsville, PA --,98,--
Corning, NY --,83,--
Cortland, NY --,--,--
Coshocton, OH 845,--,--
Council Bluff, IA 800,42,5.3
Cranston, RI 552,173,31.3
Cumberland, MD 1893,86,4.5
Danbury, CT 2928,80,2.7
Danvers, MA 1590,15,.9
Danville, IL 1124,180,16
Danville, VA --,48,--
Davenport, IA 4523,--,--
Decatur, IL 1566,13,.8
Denison, TX 4500,12,.3
Dickson City, PA 1158,90,7.8
Dover, NH --,22,--
Dubois, PA --,--,--
Dubuque, IA 2002,82,4.1
Duluth, MN 2666,252,9.5
Dunkirk, NY 1785,39,2.18
Dunmore, PA 1083,--,--
Durham, NC --,17,--
East Chicago, IN 370,169,45.7
East Cleveland, OH 627,--,--
East Hampton, MA 1659,52,3.1
Easton, PA --,62,--
East Orange, NJ 2067,197,9.5
East St. Louis, IL --,54,--
Edwardsville, PA 726,27,3.7
Eau Claire, WI 1914,43,2.2
Elgin, IL 1399,--,--
Elizabeth, NJ 2926,148,5.0
Elmira, NY 3549,127,3.6
El Paso, TX 264,--,--
Elyria, OH 1625,19,1.2
Enfield, CT 600,6,1.0
Englewood, NJ 1078,7,.6
Erie, PA 9514,504,5.3
Escanaba, MI 2500,46,1.8
Eugene, OR 484,--,--
Eureka, CA 2374,72,3
Evanston, IL 2878,54,2
Everett, MA 2259,178,7.9
Everett, WA 3729,84,2.3
Fairmont, WV 4296,82,1.9
Fargo, ND --,--,--
Farrell, PA 420,50,11.9
Findlay, OH --,--,--
Fitchburg, MA 4232,45,1.1
Fond du Lac, WI 500,15,3
Fort Collins, CO 800,--,--
Fort Scott, KS 174,9,5.2
Fort Smith, AK --,160,--
Fort Wayne, IN 2585,39,1.5
Fostoria, OH 1181,14,1.2
Framingham, MA 4804,52,1.1
Frankfort, IN 1618,10,.6
Frederick, MD 1040,26,2.5
Fremont, NB --,8,--
Fremont, OH 720,4,.6
Fresno, CA 5086,87,1.7
Galesburg, IL 3658,75,2.1
Galveston, TX 1728,82,4.7
Gardner, MA 1562,36,2.3
Garfield, NJ 982,16,1.6
Gary, IN 1125,106,9.4
Geneva, NY 1200,44,3.7
Glenn Falls, NY 124,--,--
Gloucester City, NJ 3200,45,1.4
Gloversville, NY --,--,--
Grand Forks, ND 2518,176,7
Grand Island, NB 1066,48,4.5
Granite City, IL --,45,--
Great Falls, MT 301,--,--
Green Bay, WI 1512,104,6.9
Greenfield, MA --,--,--
Greenville, SC 7529,82,1.1
Greenwich, CT 1867,12,.6
Hackensack, NJ 1863,75,4
Hamilton, OH 2479,26,1.5
Hammond, IN --,41,--
Hancock, MI 180,16,8.9
Hannibal, MO --,156,--
Harrisburg, PA --,443,--
Harrison, NJ --,43,--
Hastings, NB 1165,--,--
Hattiesburg, MS 1690,28,1.7
Haverhill, MA 3416,59,1.7
Hazelton, PA 1912,295,15.4
Helena, AK 665,34,5.1
Highland Park, MI 1298,39,3
High Point, NC --,--,--
Hoboken, NJ 512,8,1.6
Holland, MI --,--,--
Holyoke, MA --,291,--
Homestead, PA 1022,--,--
Hoquiam, WA 926,96,10.4
Hornell, NY 2427,70,2.9
Hudson, NY 2300,64,2.8
Huntington, WV --,--,--
Hutchinson, KS 2987,187,6.3
Iola, KS 1221,--,--
Ironwood, MI 849,67,7.9
Irvington, NJ 1159,15,1.3
Ishpeming, MI --,--,--
Ithaca, NY 2421,68,2.8
Jackson, MI 3729,59,1.6
Jacksonville, FL 5878,390,6.6
Jacksonville, IL 2025,93,4.6
Jamestown, NY 4430,51,1.2
Janesville, WI --,21,--
Johnstown, NY 2000,38,1.9
Joplin, MO 3039,--,--
Kalamazoo, MI 3988,144,3.6
Kankakee, IL 1060,42,4
Kearny, NJ 1280,34,2.7
Keene, NH 964,93,9.5
Kenosha, WI 2296,76,3.3
Kewanee, IL --,7,--
Kingston, NY 7896,169,2.1
Knoxville, TN 13,652,--,--
Kokomo, IN 233,18,7.7
Lackawanna, NY 1474,29,2
La Crosse, WI --,62,--
La Fayette, IN --,--,--
Lake Charles, LA 4856,20,.4
Lakewood, OH 800,20,2.5
Lancaster, OH --,--,--
Lancaster, PA 8037,348,4.3
Lansford, PA 326,12,3.7
La Salle, IL 1781,19,1.1
Latrobe, PA 1200,--,--
Lawrence, KS 2478,12,.5
Leavenworth, KS 1401,31,2.2
Leominster, MA 1437,56,3.9
Lewiston, ME --,29,--
Lexington, KY 1486,99,6.7
Lima, OH --,13,--
Lincoln, NB 4721,263,5.6
Little Falls, NY 46,--,--
Little Rock, AK 8420,8,.1
Logansport, IN 3023,--,--
Long Beach, CA 3160,113,3.6
Long Branch, NJ 380,7,1.8
Lorain, OH 5193,5,.1
Ludington, MI 228,3,1.3
McKeesport, PA 1046,60,5.7
Macon, GA 4927,25,.5
Madison, WI 399,234,58.6
Mahanoy City, PA 821,--,--
Malden, MA --,--,--
Machester, NH --,434,--
Manistee, MI 738,4,.5
Manitowoc, WI 4000,4,.1
Mansfield, OH 1580,27,1.7
Marinette, WI 893,22,2.5
Marion, IN 1291,40,3.1
Marion, OH 2031,30,1.5
Marlboro, MA 732,58,7.9
Marquette, MI 528,30,5.7
Marshall, TX --,70,--
Martins Ferry, OH 300,50,16.7
Mason City, IA 1827,--,--
Massillon, OH 883,39,4.4
Matton, IL --,25,--
Maywood, IL 1016,--,--
Meadville, PA 3269,15,.5
Medford, MA 901,54,6
Medordd, OR 506,2,.4
Melrose, MA 550,52,9.5
Menominee, MI 388,31,8
Middletown, NY 1159,37,3.2
Middletown, OH 2000,130,6.5
Milford, MA --,22,--
Mishawak, IN --,23,--
Missoula, MT 2100,139,6.6
Mobile, AL 1389,240,17.3
Moline, IL 2008,161,8
Monmouth, IL 1285,4,.3
Monroe, LA 400,30,7.5
Montclaire, NJ 2312,64,2.8
Montgomery, AL 1557,164,10.5
Morganstown, WV 2539,--,--
Morristown, NJ 766,9,1.2
Moundsville, WV --,--,--
Mount Vernon, NY 3109,69,2.2
Mount Vernon, OH 700,7,1
Muncie, IN 800,30,4.9
Muscatine, IA --,--,--
Muskogee, OK 708,--,--
Nashna, NH --,91,--
Natick, MA 1623,--,--
Newark, OH 6793,61,.9
New Britain, CT 6445,212,3.3
New Brunswick, NJ 7168,--,--
Newburgh, NY 1552,43,2.8
Newburyport, MA 385,42,10.9
Newcastle, IN 408,--,--
New Castle, PA 2801,212,7.6
New London 1653,42,2.5
Newport, KY 1500,236,15.7
Newport News, VA 4618,222,4.8
Newport, RI --,65,--
New Rochelle, NY 1500,42,2.8
Newton, MA 5967,199,3.3
Niagara Falls, NY 6828,376,5.5
Norfolk, VA 8585,32,.4
Norristown, PA --,--,--
North Adams, MA 1328,27,2
Northampton, MA 1659,55,3.3
North Attleboro, MA 605,--,--
North Braddock, PA 2801,29,1
Northbridge, MA 4500,17,.4
North Little Rock, AK 1388,21,1.5
North Tonawanda, NY 1787,89,5
Norwalk, CT 2500,88,3.5
Norwich, CT --,65,--
Norwood, OH 1400,--,--
Oak Park, IL 1467,13,9
Ogden, UT 5624,232,4.1
Oil City, PA 2720,--,--
Olean, NY 4637,78,1.7
Oneonta, NY 1450,14,1
Oshkosh, WI 2330,71,3
Ossining, NY 1700,14,.8
Paducah, KY 4800,--,--
Parkersburg, WV 1022,57,5.6
Pasadena, CA 2455,72,29.3
Passaic, NY 3231,65,2
Pawtucket, RI --,81,--
Peabody, MA 462,43,9.3
Peekskill, NY 1250,84,6.7
Pekin, IL 1200,8,66.7
Peoria, IL 7260,346,4.8
Perth Amboy, NJ 484,41,8.5
Peru, IL 975,30,3.1
Petersburg, VA --,192,--
Phoenixville, PA --,153,--
Piqua, OH 4307,22,.5
Pittsfield, MA 2943,--,--
Pittston, PA 718,--,--
Plainfield, NJ 2508,--,--
Plattsburg, NY 465,91,19.6
Plymouth, MA 1071,35,3.3
Plymouth, PA 1273,--,--
Pocatello, ID 246,60,24.4
Pontiac, MI 2568,103,4
Port Chester, NY 2373,122,5.1
Portland, ME 6065,352,5.8
Portsmouth, NH 4000,15,.4
Portsmouth, OH 2792,48,1.7
Portsmouth, VA 5662,80,1.4
Poughkeepsie, NY --,--,--
Punxsutawney, PA 1200,44,3.7
Quincy, IL 2909,40,1.4
Quincy, MA 861,184,21.4
Rahway, NJ --,--,--
Raleigh, NC 3055,169,5.5
Redlands, CA 834,12,1.4
Reno, NV 619,--,--
Richmond, IN 749,31,4.1
Riverside, CA 2591,4,.2
Roanoke, VA 6788,190,2.8
Rockford, IL --,13,--
Rocky Mount, NC 4000,52,1.3
Rome, GA --,110,--
Rome, NY 1991,71,3.6
Rutland, VT 899,7,.8
Sacramento, CA 4517,279,6.2
St. Charles, MO 684,14,2
St. Cloud, MN --,20,--
St. Joseph, MO 3910,93,2.4
Salem, MA 905,47,5.2
Salem, OR 631,12,1.9
Salina, KS --,--,--
San Angelo, TX
San Bernardino, CA --,--,--
San Diego, CA 4392,332,7.5
Sandusky, OH 2513,6,.2
Sanford, ME 2800,30,1.1
Santa Ana, CA 1053,8,.8
Santa Barbara, CA 1754,14,.8
Santa Cruz, CA 939,17,1.8
Saratoga Springs, NY 1295,65,5
Saugus, MA --,27,--
Sault Ste. Marie, MI 883,9,1
Selma, AL 993,89,9
Shawnee, OK 8689,15,.2
Sheboygan, WI 1646,87,.5
Shelbyville, IN 2000,38,1.9
Sioux Falls, SD 1868,88,4.7
Somerville, MA 2474,206,8.3
South Bend, IN --,--,--
Southbridge, MA --,49,--
Spartanburg, SC --,7,--
Springfield, IL --,--,--
Springfield, MO --,278,--
Springfield, OH --,167,--
Stamford, CT 2151,110,5.1
Staunton, VA --,8,--
Steelton, PA --,125,--
Steubenville, OH --,--,--
Stillwater, MN --,7,--
Stockton, CA 7098,85,1.2
Streator, IL --,116,--
Sunbury, PA 735,--,--
Superior, WI 1520,39,2.6
Tamaqua, PA 2500,29,1.2
Taunton, MA 3787,237,6.3
Terre Haute, IN 2445,36,1.5
Tiffin, OH 389,2,.5
Traverse City, MI 161,20,12.4
Troy, NY 5000,146,2.9
Tulsa, OK 665,--,--
Tyler, TX 1407,7,.5
Union, NJ 179,--,--
Urbana, IL 600,3,.5
Utica, NY 3642,330,9.1
Vallejo, CA 3000,211,7
Vancouver, WA 2163,10,.5
Waltham, MA 2335,240,10.3
Warren, OH 1305,121,9.3
Warren, PA 1457,43,3
Washington, PA 3524,--,--
Waterbury, CT 6182,657,10.6
Waterloo, IA 2112,--,--
Watertown, MA 454,6,1.3
Watertown, NY --,252,--
Waterville, ME 825,--,--
Waussau, WI 2100,81,3.9
Webster, MA 442,31,7.0
West Chester, PA --,--,--
Westfield, MA 1724,108,6.3
West Hoboken, NJ 1136,25,2.2
West New York, NJ 783,66,8.4
West Orange, NJ 1408,16,1.1
Weymouth, MA 260,46,17.7
Wheeling, WV --,--,--
White Plains, NY 3023,75,2.5
Wichita, KS 5345,300,5.6
Wilmington, DE 217,217,--
Wilmington, NC 2893,33,1.1
Winchester, MA 1212,26,2.1
Winona, MN --,71,--
Winston Salem, NC --,244,--
Winthrop, MA 1296,5,.4
Woburn, MA 567,27,4.8
Yakima, WA --,120,--
York, PA 7500,250,3.3
Zanesville, OH --,17,--Attached FilesLast edited by Theresa42; June 15, 2007, 12:38 AM....when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes
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Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker
Some city populations from the 1910 U.S. census -- the closest census to 1918 that was taken before that pandemic (the next one was 1920):
Akron city, OH........... 69,067 (1910)
Bayonne city, NJ......... 55,545 (1910)
Brockton city, MA........ 56,878 (1910)
Duluth city MN........... 78,466 (1910)
East St. Louis city, IL.. 58,547 (1910)
Elizabeth city, NJ....... 73,409 (1910)
Erie city, PA............ 66,525 (1910)
Fort Wayne city, IN...... 63,933 (1910)
Harrisburg city, PA...... 64,186 (1910)
Hoboken city, NJ......... 70,324 (1910)
Holyoke city, MA......... 57,730 (1910)
Jacksonville city, FL.... 57,699 (1910)
Manchester city, NH...... 70,063 (1910)
Norfolk city, VA......... 67,452 (1910)
Passaic city, NJ......... 54,773 (1910)
Peoria city, IL.......... 66,950 (1910)
Portland city, ME........ 58,571 (1910)
St. Joseph city, MO...... 77,403 (1910)
Somerville city, MA...... 77,236 (1910)
South Bend city, IN...... 53,684 (1910)
Terre Haute city, IN..... 58,157 (1910)
Troy city, NY............ 76,813 (1910)
Utica city, NY........... 74,419 (1910)
Waterbury city, CT....... 73,141 (1910)
...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes
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Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker
Some more population figures based on U.S. census data:
Abilene, TX
1910 26,293
1920 24,081
Adams (county), MS
1910 25,265
1920 22,183
Alameda city, CA
1910 23,383
1920 28,806
Altoona, PA
1910 108,858
1920 128,334
Amarillo, TX
1910 15,736
1920 20,385
Ann Arbor, MI
1910 110,357
1920 114,809
Anniston, AL
1910 39,115
1920 47,822
Asheville, NC
1910 69,930
1920 84,231
El Paso, TX
1910 52,599
1920 101,877
San Angelo, TX
1910 17,882
1920 15,210
Tyler, TX
1910 41,746
1920 46,769
...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes
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Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker
hey, thanks !
I also found coordinates of ~2000 US-cities and 1918-population
of ~250 US-cities , I hope the spellings are correct and
I can merge the data.
I also sent email to Calif. state library and will send one to NC-state library.
The data (monthly deaths by city) exists, just not computer readable.
Could be useful to examine seasonality too.
Apparantly San Francisco has milder flu due to better clima,
12?C in winter vs. 0?C at East coast.
Hmm, maybe weather-data for the cities can be collected too...
NC library has other interesting 1918 data too,
see here:
click the bars on the left for many further documents from 1918.
e.g. this one:
I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT
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Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker
Originally posted by gsgs View Posthey, thanks !
I also found coordinates of ~2000 US-cities and 1918-population
of ~250 US-cities , I hope the spellings are correct and
I can merge the data.
I also sent email to Calif. state library and will send one to NC-state library.
The data (monthly deaths by city) exists, just not computer readable....when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes
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Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker
Originally posted by Theresa42 View PostCool! Lemme know if you need more typing/transcribing -- I'm a pretty fast typist. That took me just about an hour, so not so bad.
yes, I found some more data, e.g. monthly from 1918,1919
or state - data.
But maybe OCR is possible and let me wait what the library people say,
what I can get...
They definately have deaths from all causes, maybe even weekly ,
that's useful for 1918. But for the other years I want influenza/pneumonia
deaths.
----------------------------------------------
page 2 , cities - table --###done
page 3f, together with 28f : deaths per state rural vs. cities, influenza and all deaths , 4 numbers per state
page 12-13 , total deaths 1919 by month and city
same for 1918 :
presumably other years are in the library too
page 6
6 cities, autumn 1918, weekly
page 4f , cases 1920 by city, weekly
page7f , excess influenza by cities, 1918, 12weeks
age and sex and races data not yet considered. Could be useful to determine whether the
virus has changed, how much pre-1918 was similar to 1918 or nowadays H3N2
page5 , weekly 1918, 13 British cities
page6 , weekly 1918 , 14 European and Indian cities
page13 , weekly 1917,1918 , London,Paris,Dublin
compare with weather data ! Or other weather dependent disease
influenza+pneumonia is preferred, not just influenza.
Some cities include influenza-->pneumonia deaths
in the influenza statistics, some in the pneumonia statistics.Last edited by gsgs; June 15, 2007, 12:30 PM.I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT
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Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker
OK, there were some errors and my coordinates-data was
bad, but finally I have 398 cities with coordinates,
1918 flu-cases and mortality now.
No weather and population data yet adapted for computer-reading.
As as a first test, see below for 1918-mortality. This probably
has been done before, but the data was not public, now it is.
I hope, you can recognize the shape of the USA.
The length of the bars is proportional to the CFR.
Only larger cities with >1000 cases. Madison,WI had
particularly high CFR :399 cases, 234 deaths (error?)
I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT
Comment
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Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker
Madison,WI had particularly high CFR :399 cases, 234 deaths (error?)
Also, there was a Camp Randall in Madison -- actually on the university grounds. It was a U.S. Civil War prison camp that was used for training during WWI -- perhaps a lot of soldiers fell ill and died there?:
...when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth. - Sherlock Holmes
Comment
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Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker
only 400 cases in Madison, seems that not many people lived there
in 1918 despite the University and camp.
Princeton did particularly well in 1918, AFAIR.
OK, I typed in the yearly flu-death-rates for 50 cities.
correlation-coefficients *100 of
influenza-deaths per million population in 50 cities for years:
Code:1919 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 6-10 --------------------------------------------- 1919: -- 27 36 19 36 43 45 42 32 36 1918: 27 -- 31 49 23 31 28 28 30 33 1917: 36 31 -- 57 81 76 69 81 71 68 1916: 19 49 57 -- 47 52 60 42 61 53 1915: 36 23 81 47 -- 84 76 79 77 74 1914: 43 31 76 52 84 -- 84 87 74 83 1913: 45 28 69 60 76 84 -- 82 80 85 1912: 42 28 81 42 79 87 82 -- 80 86 1911: 32 30 71 61 77 74 80 80 -- 82 6-10: 36 33 68 53 74 83 85 86 82 --
1916 correlation with earlier years is lower.
1918 also, while 1918 with 1916 is higher than with other earlier years.
This could indicate, that the 1916 outbreak was a mixture
of H3N8(?) and H1N1 already, so 1918 H1N1 or similar virus
would have been around already in 1916 and the 1916
outbreak was already a change, which was then dramatically
completed in 1918.
Monthly data would be more useful here , also pneumonia+influenza
instead of pneumonia only.
Also maybe comparing with pre-1889 data.I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT
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Re: analysis by Frost, Sydenstricker
I FOUND ANOTHER ANALYSIS BY SELWYN D. COLLINS, Ph.D.
(US NAVY)
It has a LOT of charts, which I don't know how to post. Maybe someone could start another thread under Collins name?
It has nice charts for Influenza/pneumonia, 1887-1956:
http://www.history.navy.mil/library/...za_collins.htm
There are 3 kinds of people: those who can post charts & those who can't.
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