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1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

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  • #46
    Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

    Looks like the men's life expectancy corresponds with the Russo-Ottoman wars. Dates from Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-T...War,_1710-1711

    156870 157172 167681 16861700 168789
    169596 171011 173539 176874 178792
    180612 182129 182829 185356 (Crimean War)
    187778 191417 (World War I) 191718

    I wonder what caused the 2 small increases for women prior to 1850? And why have they been declining since the '80's?
    The salvage of human life ought to be placed above barter and exchange ~ Louis Harris, 1918

    Comment


    • #47
      Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

      apparantly the State Library of North Carolina has removed most of their influenza 1918 documents.

      3 documents are still here:

      http://digitalstatelibnc.cdmhost.com...t&CISOROOT=all


      here a bibliography:
      http://virus.stanford.edu/uda/flubib.html
      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
      my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

      Comment


      • #48
        Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

        I couldn't even get anything from your first link using the Wayback Machine.

        Maybe they haven't removed them permanently.
        The salvage of human life ought to be placed above barter and exchange ~ Louis Harris, 1918

        Comment


        • #49
          Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

          I have some of the .pdfs on my HD, is it appropriate to
          upload to FT ?
          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

          Comment


          • #50
            Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

            Originally posted by gsgs View Post
            I have some of the .pdfs on my HD, is it appropriate to
            upload to FT ?

            I believe there is a 9.54 Mb upload limit for pdf files here at FT.
            http://novel-infectious-diseases.blogspot.com/

            Comment


            • #51
              Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

              collection of mortality figures in several countries:

              http://magictour.free.fr/mort1.JPG
              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
              my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

              Comment


              • #52
                Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

                Originally posted by gsgs View Post
                life expectancy Sweden by year of death



                {1773 famine , 1809 war , 1857 influenza? , 1918 influenza pandemic}


                hard to imagine that this stable trend since 1950 should suddenly reverse now...
                from a friend of FT

                1857 saw the last major swedish dysenteri epidemic and cholera epidemic which may in part explain the dip. 1857: Dysentery 10650 Cholera 3961 Pop 3680295 Deaths 101491

                Cholera figures here: http://landberga.se/medicinhistoria/kolera.html
                Dysentery figures here: http://www2.hist.uu.se/historikermot...stenbrandt.pdf (graph showing dysentery mortality as a percentage of total mortality)
                No tuberculosis data due to changes in death cause registartion between 1831 and 1859

                Comment


                • #53
                  Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

                  there are lots of genealogy, family finder , historical heritage databases now.

                  But not for research !
                  They do have the data, they could easily show daily time-series of deaths by age-groups,
                  maybe even by cause of death for cities,counties,states.
                  From 1918 and earlier.

                  E.g. here for Kentucky 1911-2000, ~3M records, 43711 for 1918
                  http://vitals.rootsweb.ancestry.com/ky/death/search.cgi
                  but they forbid to download in bulk

                  Missouri 1910-1962
                  http://www.sos.mo.gov/archives/resources/birthdeath/
                  but only by date and location, not by age or cause of death

                  Missouri 1880-1910 with age

                  Missouri seems to allow bulk download and posting the charts here ?!



                  picture below:
                  1914-1921, MA28,daily deaths from all causes

                  the data for <1910 is bad, not computer-readable, many gaps

                  http://www.germanroots.com/deathrecords.html


                  -------------------------------------------------------------

                  http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsushis...tatsh_1918.pdf
                  http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsushis...tatsh_1919.pdf
                  http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsushis...tatsh_1920.pdf

                  --------------------------------------------------------------------
                  1889-1890 :
                  http://origem.info/FIC/pdf/03_Valtat_2011_Vaccine.pdf
                  .................................................. ...................
                  Attached Files
                  I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                  my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                  Comment


                  • #54
                    Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

                    the 1918 USA mortality statistical pdf file at
                    http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsushis...tatsh_1918.pdf
                    has 74 MB and 593 pages, so it takes some minutes to download.
                    It resides on my HD under the name 1918st.pdf, together with the files
                    from 1905st.pdf to 1959st.pdf for the other years.
                    Since 1959 we have all the anonymized death certificates available
                    online , see the mortality thread (link), although since 2004 the
                    geographical data is removed from them.


                    The tables from 1918st are not available in computer-readable form,
                    it would be useful to have them. OCR doesn't work so well and produces
                    many errors on that text.
                    You have to wonder how they typed in all the numbers in those
                    early years without computers !
                    ~ million numbers, several million digits, ~500 hours for a human.

                    Here are the tables-descriptions from 1918st:

                    ----------------------------
                    age related:
                    (page=page in pdf,pages long,entries,TABLE-number,description)
                    144=138,026,035728,TABLE 3. --color2,area6+state30+cities580,agegroup29
                    170=164,036,027144,TABLE 4. --race13,area6+states30,sex2,age29
                    258=251,046,014500,TABLE 7x. --color3,cause189(250),sex2,age29
                    294=287,138,783000,TABLE 8. --color3,cause189(250),area6+states30,age29
                    432=425,051,114912,TABLE 9. --cause38,cities56,(color3),age18

                    ----------------------------------
                    monthly data:
                    123=118,010,007969,TABLE 1. --month13,area3+state30+cities580
                    483=476,038,071760,TABLE 10. --area6+states30+cities56,(color3),cause20,month13
                    --------------------------------------
                    with cause of death:
                    114=111,004,002268,TABLE II. --#+rate2,years6,cause189
                    236=230,022,012474,TABLE 6. -- area3+states30+,rural2,cause189
                    258=251,022,014500,TABLE 7. --all1,cause189(250),sex2,age29
                    270=263,012,014500,TABLE 7A. --white1,cause189(250),sex2,age29
                    282=275,012,014500,TABLE 7B. --colored1,cause189(250),sex2,age29
                    294=287,138,783000,TABLE 8. --cause189(250),color3,area6+states30,age29

                    118=115,005,001178,TABLE III.--states31,cause rate38
                    206=200,030,046816,TABLE 5. --area6+states30+cities580,color2,cause38
                    432=425,051,114912,TABLE 9. --cause38,cities56,(color3),age18
                    483=476,038,071760,TABLE 10. --area6+states30+cities56,(color3),cause20,month13
                    521=514,052,111780,TABLE 11. --<1,area6+states30+cities56,(col),cause27,age15




                    -------------------------------------------------
                    short descriptions:

                    1918 Deaths (exclusive of Stillbirths) in the registration area
                    (exclusive of Hawaii),

                    094=091,002,000333,TABLE IA. --race3,rural3,states37
                    096=093,018,010000,TABLE IB. --regions cities2500,residence status4
                    114=111,004,002268,TABLE II. --#+rate2,years6,cause189
                    118=115,005,001178,TABLE III.--states31,cause rate38
                    123=118,010,007969,TABLE 1. --month13,area3+state30+cities580
                    133=128,011,008624,TABLE 2. --area6+states30+cities580,race4+nativity10
                    144=138,026,035728,TABLE 3. --color2,area6+state30+cities580,agegroup29
                    170=164,036,027144,TABLE 4. --area6+states30,sex2,race13,agegroup29
                    206=200,030,046816,TABLE 5. --area6+states30+cities580,color2,cause38
                    236=230,022,012474,TABLE 6. -- area3+states30+,rural2,cause189
                    258=251,022,014500,TABLE 7. --all1,cause189(250),sex2,age29
                    270=263,012,014500,TABLE 7A. --white1,cause189(250),sex2,age29
                    282=275,012,014500,TABLE 7B. --colored1,cause189(250),sex2,age29
                    294=287,138,783000,TABLE 8. --cause189(250),color3,area6+states30,age29
                    432=425,051,114912,TABLE 9. --cause38,cities56,(color3),age18
                    483=476,038,071760,TABLE 10. --area6+states30+cities56,(color3),cause20,month13
                    521=514,052,111780,TABLE 11. --<1,area6+states30+cities56,(col),cause27,age15

                    MAPS.

                    008,Growth of the registration area for deaths: 1880 to 1918

                    DIAGRAMS.

                    010,Percentages which the population and land area of the registration
                    area formed of the total population and land area of the United States
                    for the years 1880, 1890, and 1900 to 1918

                    010,Per cent of deaths in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii)
                    by color, by nativity of white persons, and by parent nativity of the
                    native white: 1918

                    012,Number of deaths in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii)
                    at all ages, under 1 year of age, and from 1 to 4 years of age,
                    for each of the years 1900 to 1918

                    012,Per cent of deaths in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii)
                    under 1 year of age, from 1 to 4 years, and 5 years - and over,
                    for each of the years 1900 to 1918

                    016, General death rates of the United States (registration area)
                    and certain foreign countries for each of the years from 1900 to 1917

                    022,Death rates from certain important causes of death in the registration
                    area of the United States for each of the years from 1900 to 1918

                    SUPPLEMENT.

                    574,HAWAII
                    589,SOLDIERS, SAILORS, AND MARINES
                    594,ADDITIONAL DEATHS








                    --------------------------complete text of content--------------



                    DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
                    BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
                    SAM. L. ROGERS, DIRECTOR

                    MORTALITY STATISTICS 1918
                    NINETEENTH ANNUAL REPORT


                    CONTENT


                    TEXT
                    009,Introduction
                    ...
                    049,CONTRIBUTORY CAUSES OF DEATH IN RELATION TO PRMARY CAUSES OF
                    DEATH in THE REGISTRATION AREA (EXCLUSIVE OF HAWAII AND OFSOLDIERS
                    SAILORS,AND MARINES):1917

                    SUMMARY AND RATE TABLES.

                    094,TABLE IA.--Deaths (exclusive of Stillbirths) in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii),
                    its main subdivisions, each registration state (by cities and rural districts),
                    and each group of registration cities in nonregistration cities

                    096,TABLE IB--Deaths of nonresidents in relation to total deaths in each city and each
                    rural unit in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii)

                    114,TABLE II--Deaths (exclusive of stillbirths) and death rates per 100,000 population,
                    by cause, according to the detailed International List, for the registration area
                    (exclusive of Hawaii) :1915 to 1918

                    118,TABLE III--Death rates per 100,000 population in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii)
                    and each registration state, from important causes of death

                    GENERAL TABLES

                    123,TABLE 1.--Deaths (exclusive of stillbirths) in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii)
                    and certain subdivisions,
                    ---by month of death

                    133,TABLE 2.-- Deaths (exclusive of stillbirths) in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii)
                    and certain subdivisions,
                    ---by color, general nativity, and parent nativity

                    144,TABLE 3.--Deaths (exclusive of stillbirths) in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii)
                    and certain subdivisions
                    ---by color and age

                    170,TABLE 4.--Deaths (exclusive of stillbirths) in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii),
                    its main subdivisions, and each registration state,
                    ---by age, sex, color, general nativity, and parent nativity of decedent: 1918

                    206,TABLE 5.--Deaths (exclusive of stillbirths) in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii) and certain subdivisions, by color of
                    decedent andcause of death: 1918

                    236,TABLE 6.--Deaths (exclusive of stillbirths) in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii), its main subdivisions, and in cities and rural districts of each registration state,
                    ---from each cause and class of causes

                    258,TABLE 7.--Deaths (exclusive of stillbirths) in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii)
                    ---from each cause and class of causes, by sex and age
                    270,TABLE 7A.-- = Table 7 for White persons
                    282,TABLE 7B.-- = Table 7 for Colored persons

                    294,TABLE 8.--Deaths (exclusive of stillbirths in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii),
                    all registration states, and each registration state,
                    ---from each cause and class of causes, by age of decedent:

                    432,TABLE 9.--Deaths (exclusive of stillbirths) in each city of 100,000 population or more in 1910,
                    ---by cause of death (abridged International List) and by age

                    483,TABLE 10.--Deaths (exclusive of stillbirths) in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii),
                    registration states, and cities of 100,000 population or more in 1910,
                    ---from important causes, by month of death

                    521,TABLE 11.--Deaths (exclusive of stillbirths) in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii),
                    registration states, and cities of 100,000 population or more in 1910,
                    from important causes, for certain subdivisions of the fist year of life

                    MAPS.

                    008,Growth of the registration area for deaths: 1880 to 1918

                    DIAGRAMS.

                    010,Percentages which the population and land area of the registration area formed of the
                    total population and land area of the United States for the years 1880, 1890, and 1900 to 1918

                    010,Per cent of deaths in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii) by color, by nativity
                    of white persons, and by parent nativity of the native white: 1918

                    012,Number of deaths in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii) at all ages, under 1 year of age,
                    and from 1 to 4 years of age, for each of the years 1900 to 1918

                    012,Per cent of deaths in the registration area (exclusive of Hawaii) under 1 year of age,
                    from 1 to 4 years, and 5 years and over, for each of the years 1900 to 1918

                    016, General death rates of the United States (registration area) and certain foreign countries
                    for each of the years from 1900 to 1917

                    022,Death rates from certain important causes of death in the registration area of the United States
                    for each of the years from 1900 to 1918

                    SUPPLEMENT.

                    574,HAWAII
                    589,SOLDIERS, SAILORS, AND MARINES
                    594,ADDITIONAL DEATHS
                    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                    Comment


                    • #55
                      Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

                      all the old public heath reports are now available at pubmed,
                      weekly since 1896


                      SALVADOR.
                      Influenza.
                      Epidemic influenza was reported, September 27, 1918, to be preva-
                      lent in the Republic of Salvador.
                      In the city of Sani Salv-ador about
                      20,000 cases were stated to have OcCUiTed.

                      Infuenza was reported present at MArlm,( Swedlen, (huring the first
                      two weeks in September, 1918, with .521 eases.

                      Influenza was reported epi(lemic at Barevlona, -Spain, October 9,
                      1918, with 5,000casesand many fatalities.

                      During the monitlh of September, 1918, 482 cases of in-ifluenza, with
                      433 deaths, were reported at Brest, France. On October 18, 1918, the
                      epidemic was stated to be iniereasinig.

                      The steamship Makai M.aru from San Francisco, Cal., arrived at
                      Honolulu, Hawaii, with a history of 27 cases of influenza occurring
                      among the crew from October 7, 1918, to the date of the arrival of
                      the vessel at Honolulu.

                      Sep.13
                      Epidemic influenza has been reported in several countries in Europe
                      during the summer-of 1918, more especially in Spain.
                      According to press dispatches, 8,000,000 persons have suffered from the disease in
                      that country.
                      Most of the cases reported to the Public Health.Service have been
                      from France, England, Norway, and Switzerland, although a mildform
                      has been reported in Canton, China.
                      It has appeared at Prince Edward Island, Canada, and in the Island of Guadeloupe in the West
                      Indies, probably an extension from European ports.

                      On September 12, 1918, a sudden outbreak of influenza was re-
                      portedatNew London, Conn., andvicinity, about 60case
                      having
                      been1 notified.

                      On September 12, 1918,
                      a sudden outbreak of influenza was re-
                      ported in Boston, Mass., and vicinity, where more than 1,400 cases
                      of the disease have been notified since the begnning of the outbreak
                      about August 28, 1918.
                      Many of the cases are of severe type, and
                      pneumonia has developed in about 10 per cent of the case.
                      About
                      25 or 30 deaths have resulted.

                      4pidemicinfluenza was reported present., August 3, 1918, at
                      BAsse Terre, Guadeloupe.

                      Epidemic influenza, with ?n estimated number of about 1,500
                      cases, was reported present '*
                      Christiania, Norway, July 13, 1918.
                      The outbreak of the epidemic occumed about June 15,, 191
                      The
                      character of the disease was stated to, remble that ofgiip

                      Epidemic influenza was reported still present at Birmingham,
                      England, during the week ended July 6, 1918, with 96 deaths attrib-
                      uted to the disease.

                      An outbreak of influenza, with many fatal cases, was reported at
                      Bern,Switzerland, July 30, 1918.

                      Fevers of an undetermined nature were reported during April and
                      May at various points from Norfolk to Louisiana.
                      An examination
                      of the records and reports of the physicians who have treated these
                      cases leads to the belief that these fevers were mainly influenza of
                      mild type.

                      -----------------------------------------------

                      Massachusetts death statistics is available in annually pdfs since 1840
                      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                      my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                      Comment


                      • #56
                        Re: 1918 Analysis with Charts and Graphs

                        see, how the deaths-age-structure normalized after 1918




                        ratio for England 1918 by age1groups:

                        http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/att...1&d=1398921167


                        -------------------------------------------------------------
                        [picture 1918ag5.gif was replaced , now also showing 1957 and 1968]
                        Attached Files
                        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                        Comment


                        • #57
                          I typed in the weekly deaths in major US-cities Feb-May 1918, , the supposed 1st wave of the 1918 pandemic. NY,Bridgeport, CT were early, as in the 2nd wave, suggesting that it came by ship (from where ??) Boston , New England is unclear, did they have it even earlier or not at all ?
                          http://magictour.free.fr/usfeb18e.GIF

                          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                          Comment

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