Weekly MMWR: Week 30 (2009) - Week 39 (2010)

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 41

Link not loading

[gsgs]

Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 41

try again



P+I/all up to 7.11% , deaths 25-64 also up
P+I and deaths 45-64y up in Pacific

http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwrmort.asp

New York:http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
Boston:http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
Atlanta: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A

USA:http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
New England: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
Mid-Atlantic:http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
S.Atlantic: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
W.N.Central: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
W.S.Central: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
E.N.Central: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
E.S.Central: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
Mountain: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
Pacific: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A

[sharon sanders]

Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 42

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more...

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5842md.htm

[gsgs]

Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 42

> Updated weekly from reports to the Influenza Division, National Center
> for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. Seventy four influenza-
> associated pediatric deaths occurring during the 2009--10 influenza
> season beginning August 30, 2009 have been reported. One hundred
> and seventeen influenza-associated pediatric death occurring during
> the 2008-09 influenza season have been reported.

when they write out the numbers with letters, then they are trying
to hide something... (why else ?)
or they are being paid by the number of words

[gsgs]

Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 42

deaths in 5 pre-(flu-)peak weeks in
2009: 10366,6790,2524,522,216,691 - 655,243,050,021,667
2003: 11709,7950,2432,765,234,818 - 679,208,065,020,699

so it's the 45-64y old people who are dying in 2009 and not in 2003

2009:
33  9666 6336 2280 633 225 190 588 
34 10489 6780 2532 684 245 238 607 
35  9880 6484 2289 651 234 217 519 
36  9099 5874 2221 585 226 191 541 
37 11250 7275 2749 718 270 236 683 
38 10762 6996 2585 677 259 238 661 
39  9589 6309 2550 588 226 213 620 
40 10612 6890 2585 672 258 207 715 
41  9964 6643 2289 604 232 194 684 
42 10903 7110 2610 712 237 228 775 
week 38-42: 10366,6790,2524,522,216,691

2003/4: (last season when it also started early)
45  9279  6423  1859  608  218  170   573  
46 10521  6971  2193  712  225  260   647  
47 12031  8124  2518  788  265  231   773  
48  9720  6575  1970  686  252  192   631  
49 12731  8490  2670  890  287  275   886   * first peak
50 12874  8772  2740  805  293  255   931   * first peak
51 11191  7787  2260  658  263  216   870  
52  9245  6479  1825  592  209  135   832  
53  9825  6877  1969  611  199  157   920  
01 14590 10204  2818  931  344  283  1482 ... Christmas-holidays ?  
02 14419 10283  2778  824  265  257  1485  
03 13367  9371  2704  792  278  213  1291  
04 13535  9412  2765  802  299  255  1252  
05 13769  9475  2822  883  306  280  1194  
06 13831  9509  2857  862  310  276  1198  
07 13481  9313  2735  858  305  262  1075  
08 13807  9524  2816  897  272  266  1063  
09 13165  9004  2741  841  289  285   947  
10 13701  9343  2853  905  301  284  1010  
week 47-51:  11709,7950,2432,765,234,818

[gsgs]

Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 42

deaths are up a bit (i.e. in the West)
but (still) less than in a seasonal wave

34 10,489  6,780  2,532  684  245  238  607  
35  9,880  6,484  2,289  651  234  217  519  
36  9,099  5,874  2,221  585  226  191  541  
37 11,250  7,275  2,749  718  270  236  683  
38 10,762  6,996  2,585  677  259  238  661  
39  9,589  6,309  2,250  588  226  213  620  
40 10,612  6,890  2,585  672  258  207  715  
41  9,964  6,643  2,289  604  232  194  684  
42 10,903  7,110  2,610  712  237  228  775  
43 11,136  7,330  2,546  782  248  224  828  
44 10,564  7,008  2,500  615  239  201  821  
45 10,366  6,858  2,430  653  224  192  773  
46 10,929  7,200  2,626  652  253  196  895  
47  8,351  5,505  2,056  470  171  148  600

[gsgs]

Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 42

P+I death ratio goes up a lot again, after the decline last week

http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps.asp?mmwr_week=32&mmwr_year=2009&mmwr_location=TOTAL&mmwr_table=4A

but the total number of death from all causes remains normal.


increase o deaths in NYC, but mainly in the 65+ group

http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps.asp?mmwr_week=32&mmwr_year=2009&mmwr_location=New+York+City&#37;2C+N%2EY%2E&mmwr_table=4A

[Ronan Kelly]

Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 42

gs, lots of cities did not report including Chicago, Fort Worth, Long Beach. I'm away from home right now, but I bet you that those missing cities would increase the overall mortality by over a thousand.

[gsgs]

Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 46

Chicago isn't reporting since week 32, ~350 total deaths per week
Fort Worth isn't reporting since week 5 , ~150 total deaths per week
Long Beach isn't reporting since week 46, ~70 total deaths per week

Springfield,MA isn't reporting since week 46, ~40 total deaths per week
Baton Rouge,LA isn't reporting since week 42, ~50 total deaths per week
Houston,TX isn't reporting since week 46, ~400 total deaths per week
New Orleans,LA isn't reporting since week 34,2005, ~50 total deaths per week
Boise,ID isn't reporting since week 46,~60 deaths per week
Portland,OR isn't reporting since week 46,~120 deaths per week

~1300 deaths for USA in total


same week last year:
New Haven,CT : ~40
New Orleans,LA : ~50

more than 10% of deaths are missing in the USA 122-cities statistics
maybe they are filed in later

12200 deaths per week would be ~1400 more than last year per week

or ~6000 excess deaths from all causes for USA in week 46,2009
~1300 of these due to P+I

assuming that was a peak-week and ~15% of the total wave, that's an estimated
8700 deaths for the wave.
But numbers in the previous weeks were lower

[gsgs]

Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 46

135543 reported deaths for week 34-46 , 9122 of which are due to P+I
139854 deaths reported for the same period in 2008, 8560 of which were due to P+I

I calculate ~826 excess deaths from P+I for this period for the 122 cities
or ~3500 estimated excess deaths for USA from P+I for this wave so far
or ~7000 for the total wave, that's ~23 deaths per M population,
almost 3 times the reported 8 per M in Australia (direct deaths)

So I assume that also in Australia less than half of ****** deaths
from P+I were recognized and reported.

This is for P+I deaths only, but there is reason to assume that deaths
attributed to other causes but initiated by P+I are much less than in
other seasons (given as ~40000) due to the age-structure.

USA official deaths from ****** are at 2300, up from 600 in week 34,
so official deaths for this wave are ~3400 or 11 per M population

(assuming that #deaths peak this week and thus we have seen
~half of deaths for this wave so far)

[gsgs]

Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 46

they should publish weekly, how much % (population)
of the cities are reporting.

Or someone else should publish those numbers weekly

... probably does, considering how big the internet is
and how important this is.


So, where is it ?

[gsgs]

Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 46

Cities not reporting or only partially for weeks 34-46

34,11
Erie
Pittsburg
Scranton
Syracuse
Chicago
Detroit
Peoria
Des Moines
Baton Rouge
Ft.Worth
New Orleans
35,11
Erie
Newark
Scranton
Chicago
Detroit
Peoria
Omaha
Baton Rouge
Corpus Christi
Ft.Worth
New Orleans
36,9
Erie *
Pittsburg *
Scranton *
Chicago
Corpus Christi
Ft.Worth
Little Rock
New Orleans
Fresno
37,4
Chicago
Ft.Worth
New Orleans
Long Beach
38,7
Springfield
Paterson
Chicago
Ft.Worth
New Orleans
Fresno
Honolulu
39,6
Chicago
Detroit
Corpus Christi
Ft.Worth
New Orleans
San Antonio
40,5
New Haven
Chicago
Ft.Worth
New Orleans
Albuquerque
41,8
Hartford
New Haven
Jersey City
Chicago
El Paso
Ft.Worth
New Orleans
Long Beach
42,6
Chicago
Atlanta
Baton Rouge
Ft.Worth
Corpus Christi
New Orleans
43,4
Chicago
Baton Rouge
Ft.Worth
New Orleans
44,6
Chicago
Baton Rouge
Ft.Worth
New Orleans
Phoenix
Pasadena
45,7
Hartford
Chicago
Cincinnati
Fort Worth
New Orleans
Fresno
Pasadena
46,8
Waterbury
Chicago
Baton Rouge
Ft.Worth
New Orleans
Boise
Long Beach
Portland



they should report estimates instead of non-reporting or partial reporting
and mark them as "e" . If the city gives no estimate, then CDC should

they should be able to correct numbers and estimates later for a second
list of tables


shall we publish our estimates in a fixed weekly wiki-like thread ?
who will help with updates ?

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 46

This is nothing new. In past years, similar numbers of cities have not reported. As RoRo pointed out, cities have differing populations, most of which have populations of >100,000, but can't equally be compared.

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=132099&page=3

[gsgs]

Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 46

let's solve the problem by publishing adjusted, estimated numbers !

(CDC should do it, but well...)


you can very well filter out those cities, the adjusted chart
should then be very similar to the real one, I think.

It is needed for a better estimate of the total number of deaths
due to this wave of ******

current estimate : ~10000
which is less than for seasonal. But the average age of deaths is lower,
so the number of lost years could be similar.
And then we have awfully many diseases, pain, absenteism.

Lets make a total estimate of the burdon and what we can expect the next
years,decades if this replaces oldflu
(I read seasonal flu costs ~$12B per year in USA)

[Missouriwatcher]

Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 46

RoRo may have figured this already and writes:

"The problem I have with the MMWR, is the inconsistancy of cities reporting. Between week 38 and week 43 in 2008, Chicago reported 1,916 fatalities. This year - none. If you add 1,916 to this years total we have 64,863 which would put it 5th on the list and still with more cities not reporting than 2008, 2006 and 2004. Factoring in each missing city is more time than I have right now, but I did week 44 2009 and 2008 for comparison.

Assumption: the 122 cities represent about 80 million people.

=======Total=====65+===45-64===25-44===1-24===<1===P&I
2008:==11,186===7360====2602====700=====254===270= =743
2009:==10,564===7008====2500====615=====239===201= =821

So on the face of it, P&I is up, but total deaths are down right?
Not if you correct for the missing cities:
2009: Des Moines, Chicago, Baton Rouge, Fort Worth, New Orleans, Phoenix and Pasadena represent 6 million people.
2008: New Haven, New Orleans represent around 0.6 million people.
Correction factors: 2009: *80/74
2008: *80/79.4

To get a comparison of apples with apples:
=======Total====65+===45-64===25-44===1-24===<1===P&I
2008(c)=11,270==7416===2622====705=====256===272== 749
2009(c)=11,420==7576===2703====665=====258===217== 888

P&I is up even more, and the total fatalities are also higher.
Any math errors are my own!"

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=132099&page=2