Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Weekly MMWR: Week 30 (2009) - Week 39 (2010)

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Weekly MMWR: Week 30 (2009) - Week 39 (2010)

    Link to previous thread:

    http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...604#post293604


    The week 30 MMWR is out.
    Attached Files
    Last edited by Missouriwatcher; July 22, 2010, 05:47 PM.
    Wotan (pronounced Voton with the ton rhyming with on) - The German Odin, ruler of the Aesir.

    I am not a doctor, virologist, biologist, etc. I am a layman with a background in the physical sciences.

    Attempting to blog an nascent pandemic: Diary of a Flu Year

  • #2
    Re: Week 30 MMWR

    Contains article on quick flu tests page 206-209

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Week 30 MMWR

      OK, this is a little scary.

      The Pneumonia & Influenza numbers are unusually high (Table III). This survey has 651 P&I deaths from a total of 11,012. CDC estimates 2.5 million deaths by all causes per year so that?s 48,000 per week on average. So proportionately, that?s around 2,800 P&I deaths nationally.
      There are an estimated 82,000 P&I deaths in an average year http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease...ted_deaths.htm , that?s 1,600 per week on average, and one would expect it to be even lower in the summertime. So in MMWR of week 30, there appears to be at least 1,200 excess P&I fatalities.

      Please someone check to see if I?m making any silly mistakes or assumptions.

      RoRo
      Twitter: @RonanKelly13
      The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Week 30 MMWR

        Originally posted by RoRo View Post
        OK, this is a little scary.

        The Pneumonia & Influenza numbers are unusually high (Table III). This survey has 651 P&I deaths from a total of 11,012. CDC estimates 2.5 million deaths by all causes per year so that?s 48,000 per week on average. So proportionately, that?s around 2,800 P&I deaths nationally.
        There are an estimated 82,000 P&I deaths in an average year http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease...ted_deaths.htm , that?s 1,600 per week on average, and one would expect it to be even lower in the summertime. So in MMWR of week 30, there appears to be at least 1,200 excess P&I fatalities.

        Please someone check to see if I?m making any silly mistakes or assumptions.

        RoRo
        You'd think that was all correct but, no, go back and check previous years MMWR week 30 reports. Last year's was actually about 20 higher on the P&I deaths. The CDC changed the way they come up with the P&I number effective 2008-2009, but so far I haven't found out what they did.
        Wotan (pronounced Voton with the ton rhyming with on) - The German Odin, ruler of the Aesir.

        I am not a doctor, virologist, biologist, etc. I am a layman with a background in the physical sciences.

        Attempting to blog an nascent pandemic: Diary of a Flu Year

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Week 30 MMWR

          Phew, I was a little worried there!

          Aug 2007 633P&I from 10,771 total is 5.8%
          Aug 2008 677P&I from 10,989 total is 6.2%
          Aug 2009 651P&I from 11,012 total is 5.9%

          Good Catch!
          Twitter: @RonanKelly13
          The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Week 30 MMWR

            deaths for agegroup 1-24 is up


            mmwr2 , deaths in USA week 15,2009 - 26,2009


            http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/PDF/wk/mm5824.pdf
            issue,all_ages,>=65,45-64,25-44,1-24,<1,P+I

            122_5815,12034,7897,2800,794,270,267,820
            122_5816,11470,7647,2664,685,236,232,821
            122_5817,11453,7593,2649,677,275,250,799
            122_5818,11303,7444,2620,710,263,255,810
            122_5819,11277,7432,2685,682,253,219,751
            122_5820,11268,7319,2713,687,272,268,751
            122_5821,9797,6507,2268,606,217,195,619
            122_5822,10821,7053,2601,699,244,223,697
            122_5823,11126,7274,2636,719,245,246,773
            122_5824,10987,7119,2582,737,288,255,732
            122_5825,10163,6645,2393,665,237,220,663
            122_5826,8692,5587,2146,532,240,183,571
            122_5827,10961,7169,2560,733,264,226,710
            122_5828,10824,7015,2651,671,265,218,726
            122_5829,10493,6758,2554,696,260,222,657
            122_5830,11012,6985,2735,725,298,266,651





            NYC_5815,1032,710,237,51,13,19,33
            NYC_5816,959,683,197,53,17,9,34
            NYC_5817,1124,792,243,59,19,11,32
            NYC_5818,1018,698,234,62,11,11,44
            NYC_5819,822,577,189,39,6,11,23
            NYC_5820,1128,790,258,49,14,16,51
            NYC_5821,914,627,204,57,16,10,30
            NYC_5822,970,652,242,51,16,9,42
            NYC_5823,818,576,170,53,14,5,29
            NYC_5824,1142,771,264,78,15,13,46
            NYC_5825,805,565,168,48,12,12,31
            NYC_5826,753,501,191,43,7,11,34
            NYC_5827,1068,731,236,66,18,16,36
            NYC_5828,1073,741,248,52,17,15,42
            NYC_5829,1005,692,231,55,15,12,45
            NYC_5830,1025,679,249,55,24,18,37
            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
            my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Week 30 MMWR

              When you express the numbers as percentages, there doesn't seem to be any disproportionate younger deaths. On the other hand, 45-64 looks higher than normal, and has been above 24% for the past 5 weeks.

              MMWR Week 30 /Total Fatalities /> 65 /45-64 /25-44 /1-24 /<1 /P&I
              2009 /11,012 /63.40 /24.84 /6.58 /2.71 /2.42 /5.91
              2008 /10,989 /64.93 /23.33 /6.68 /2.65 /2.39 /6.16
              2007 /10,771 /64.40 /23.00 /6.98 /2.88 /2.39 /5.88
              2006 /11,150 /63.90 /23.46 /7.35 /2.97 /2.22 /5.16

              Comparison of % of fatalities in each age group, and Pneumonia and Influenza
              Does not always equal 100% as some ages are unknown.

              Nicer format in the attachment.
              Attached Files
              Twitter: @RonanKelly13
              The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Week 30 MMWR

                Code:
                average number of deaths per week in New York City
                in the years 1996-2007:
                
                
                 1  1190 
                 2  1369 
                 3  1239 
                 4  1170 
                 5  1330 
                 6  1370 
                 7  1291 
                 8  1227 
                 9  1269 
                 10  1241 
                 11  1304 
                 12  1239 
                 13  1182 
                 14  1114 
                 15  1145 
                 16  1146 
                 17  1111 
                 18  1124 
                 19  1113 
                 20  1102 
                 21  1019 
                 22  1070 
                 23  1126 
                 24  1078 
                 25  1062 
                 26  990 
                 27  1012 
                 28  1160 
                 29  1119 
                 30  1055 
                 31  1077 
                 32  1066 
                 33  1072 
                 34  1053 
                 35  1049 
                 36  975 
                 37  978 
                 38  978 
                 39  966 
                 40  975 
                 41  1113 
                 42  1138 
                 43  1138 
                 44  1125 
                 45  1064 
                 46  1228 
                 47  1162 
                 48  1186 
                 49  1252 
                 50  1207 
                 51  1198 
                 52  1086 
                
                
                3885 seasonal excess deaths in NYC per year
                (from the CDC-36000-figure you would
                expect 1000 flu-deaths in NYC per season)
                
                
                http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwrmort.asp
                
                118 US-cities + 9 regions  1996-2007
                
                
                week
                deaths all ages
                >=65
                45-64
                25-44
                1-24
                <1
                P+I
                
                
                weekly deaths in NYC:
                
                         1996-2007           2009        
                  weeks: 43-16 17-42 15-29   15-29
                ----------------------------------
                all ages: 1211  1061  1092    975
                >=65    :  840   724   748    673
                45-64   :  246   221   226    220
                25-44   :   89    82    82     54
                1-24    :   19    19    19     14
                <1      :   16    15    15     12
                P+I     :   54    40    43     36
                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Week 30 MMWR

                  get the data directly here: http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps.asp

                  New York:
                  http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A

                  Boston:
                  http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A

                  USA:
                  http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A

                  Mid-Atlantic, Region 2:
                  http://wonder.cdc.gov/mmwr/mmwr_reps...&mmwr_table=4A
                  I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                  my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Week 30 MMWR

                    USA 2009 Deaths from All Causes by Age Groups

                    week,All Ages,>=65,45-64,25-44,1-24,Less than 1,Pneumonia and Influenza
                    01 14333 9684 3235 863 297 251 987
                    02 12154 8153 2790 699 260 247 915
                    03 11769 7959 2676 648 228 256 853
                    04 12706 8465 2965 744 261 265 894
                    05 12280 8266 2769 736 245 258 881
                    06 12386 8312 2838 722 236 275 840
                    07 11269 7575 2620 647 218 207 836
                    08 12077 7917 2826 799 277 255 864
                    09 11876 7939 2699 719 274 243 858
                    10 11986 8087 2670 717 254 256 841
                    11 11706 7880 2708 647 239 224 838
                    12 12216 8178 2821 729 250 235 888
                    13 11400 7638 2562 725 233 238 847
                    14 11021 7448 2452 649 242 226 856
                    15 12034 7897 2800 794 270 267 820
                    16 11470 7647 2664 685 236 232 821
                    17 11453 7593 2649 677 275 250 799
                    18 11303 7444 2620 710 263 255 810
                    19 11277 7432 2685 682 253 219 751
                    20 11268 7319 2713 687 272 268 751
                    21 09797 6507 2268 606 217 195 619
                    22 10821 7053 2601 699 244 223 697
                    23 11126 7274 2636 719 245 246 773
                    24 10987 7119 2582 737 288 255 732
                    25 10163 6645 2393 665 237 220 663
                    26 08692 5587 2146 532 240 183 571
                    27 10961 7169 2560 733 264 226 710
                    28 10824 7015 2651 671 265 218 726
                    29 10493 6758 2554 696 260 222 657
                    30 11012 6985 2735 725 298 266 651
                    31 09982 6441 2383 679 250 224 610
                    32 10282 6670 2474 691 240 203 607
                    33 09666 6336 2280 633 225 190 588
                    34 10489 6780 2532 684 245 238 607
                    35 09880 6484 2289 651 234 217 519


                    total deaths this year in 122 US-cities from all causes in 5-week-intervals:
                    63242,59594,58377,56771,52894,51982,50299

                    total deaths this year in New York City from all causes in 5-week-intervals:
                    6013,5450,5107,5051,4649,4924,4812

                    237984,155175(.869)
                    21621,14385(.887)

                    259 excess deaths in week 21-35 in NYC this year as compared with the
                    national average
                    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                    Comment


                    • #12
                      Re: Week 30 MMWR

                      Code:
                                        week 36                          week 37
                      region         all  >64 >44 >24 >1 <1 P+I     all  >64 >44 >24 >1 <1 P+I
                      --------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      New England :  458  304  94  33 15 12  44 ,   507  352 109  27 13  6  36 
                      Mid Atlantic: 1678 1156 363  94 38 27  73 ,  2119 1456 481 106 38 37  92  
                      S.Atlantic  : 1077  656 295  72 25 29  38 ,  1289  783 341  95 38 32  72  
                      W.N.Central :  541  330 132  48  9 21  39 ,   623  387 159  45 14 17  35  
                      W.S.Central :  968  579 260  74 30 25  53 ,  1434  865 383 109 50 27  66  
                      E.N.Central : 1387  901 347  81 33 25  76 ,  1727 1126 405  97 36 63  99  
                      E.S.Central :  756  486 183  44 28 15  54 ,   802  507 202  65 21  7  69  
                      Mountain    :  991  642 255  59 15 19  47 ,  1122  706 284  84 22 26  58  
                      Pacific     : 1243  820 292  80 33 18 117 ,  1627 1093 385  90 38 21 156
                      
                      
                      total       :  9880 6484 2289  651  234  217  519
                                     9099 5874 2221  585  226  191  541
                                    11250 7275 2749  718  270  236  683
                                   ------------------------------------
                                    +23.6 23.9 23.8 22.7 19.5 23.6 26.2
                      
                      
                      10.7 -18.2
                      26.3  26.0
                      19.7  89.5
                      15.2 -10.3
                      48.1  24.5
                      24.5  30.3
                       6.1  27.8
                      13.2  23.4
                      30.9  33.3
                      -----------
                      23.6  26.2


                      was there a holiday in week 36, which they only reported on in week 37 ?
                      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                      my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                      Comment


                      • #13
                        Re: Week 30 MMWR

                        deaths down in week 39
                        see links above

                        I can hardly see any effect of ****** on deathrates
                        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                        Comment


                        • #14
                          Re: Week 30 MMWR

                          Influenza pediatric deaths for week ending Oct. 3 is 19.

                          WI (1), MD (2), NC (1), FL (1), TN (3), OK (1), TX (7), CO (1), AZ (1), AK (1)
                          http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwr...cid=mm5839md_e

                          Comment


                          • #15
                            Re: Week 30 MMWR

                            Week 39 MMWR comparison;


                            Age---<1 --- 1-24---25-44---45-64----65+----Total-----P&I
                            2009:213----226----588-----2250----6309-----9589----620
                            &#37;:--2.22%--2.36%-6.13%---23.5%---65.8%------------6.47%

                            2008:246----294----737-----2469----6928-----10679---617
                            %:--2.30%--2.75%-6.90%---23.1%---64.9%------------5.78%

                            2007:229----220----692-----2391----6652-----10189---606
                            %:--2.25%--2.16%-6.79%---23.5%---65.3%------------5.95%

                            P&I fatalities for week 39 are elevated as a percentage of total deaths, but overall a thousand less deaths than the same week last year. The number of P&I deaths is virtually unchanged.
                            Last edited by Ronan Kelly; October 8, 2009, 09:30 PM. Reason: added age caption
                            Twitter: @RonanKelly13
                            The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

                            Comment

                            Working...
                            X