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Weekly MMWR: Week 30 (2009) - Week 39 (2010)

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  • #16
    Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 39

    It would be intersting to see deaths by age. We might be seeing a major shift to the left with this new flu.
    Separate the wheat from the chaff

    Comment


    • #17
      Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 39

      I think, there is a problem with some cities not updating in some weeks and holidays
      which make some weeks shorter and the next one longer.
      So when looking at P+I, I divided by all deaths to cancel out this effect.
      However, all deaths in week 23-29 this year were ~4% less than the
      average 1996-2008 in the MMWR database, while P+I increased in that period.







      the ratio of P+I deaths in USA in weeks 23-29 this year was 8% higher than the average
      in 1996-2009 for that period. That would give 1500 excess deaths in USA from P+I
      in these 7 weeks.
      This is assuming that the reason for total deaths going down this year in that
      period was missing reports from some cities or population movements.


      all deaths in weeks 23-29
      deaths from P+I in weeks 23-29
      ----------------------------
      1996: 80693,4418
      1997: 78023,4565
      1998: 82392,4580
      1999: 72259,3992
      2000: 78054,5098
      2001: 79704,5194
      2002: 71705,4421
      2003: 73577,4653
      2004: 77263,4885
      2005: 76892,4686
      2006: 76883,4549
      2007: 72779,4350
      2008: 77355,4958
      2009: 73246,4832


      and the same for New York City:
      1996:8343,291
      1997:8083,310
      1998:7788,276
      1999:7968,169
      2000:7696,286
      2001:7903,312
      2002:7547,274
      2003:7589,307
      2004:7306,337
      2005:7242,326
      2006:7217,341
      2007:5876,248
      2008:7037,265
      2009:6664,263


      only 169 in 1999 ?
      see yourself:


      something is wrong here
      Attached Files
      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
      my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

      Comment


      • #18
        Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 39

        Originally posted by gsgs View Post
        I think, there is a problem with some cities not updating in some weeks and holidays
        which make some weeks shorter and the next one longer. . .
        something is wrong here
        Unless there is a math or calculation error the deviation is puzzling. Regardless of holidays or not, the number of people that died in a seven day period should be easily countable. Unless, of course, the data tabulators are so overworked now that they can not keep up with the reporting requirements.
        http://novel-infectious-diseases.blogspot.com/

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 39

          USA:
          Code:
          32 10282  6670  2474  691  240  203  607  
          33  9666  6336  2280  633  225  190  588  
          34 10489  6780  2532  684  245  238  607  
          35  9880  6484  2289  651  234  217  519  
          36  9099  5874  2221  585  226  191  541  
          37 11250  7275  2749  718  270  236  683  
          38 10762  6996  2585  677  259  238  661  
          39  9589  6309  2250  588  226  213  620  
          40 10612  6890  2585  672  258  207  715
          ratio in %:

          5.90,6.08,5.79,5.25,5.96,6.07,6.14,6.47,6.74 USA
          4.05,3.24,4.48,3.38,4.35,4.34,4.29,5.63,4.81 Mid-Atlantic
          8.70,9.78,8.05,7.52,9.41,9.59,8.58,8.38,8.02 Pacific
          5.85,6.13,5.70,5.53,5.18,5.87,6.11,5.69,6.97 South
          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

          Comment


          • #20
            Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 39

            Code:
            2008:
            33:10731 7008 2548 705 236 233 606 
            34:10734 6942 2536 751 258 243 644 
            35:10694 6917 2580 656 266 269 631 
            36: 9392 6034 2279 636 233 205 561 
            37:11049 7173 2640 727 285 223 611 
            38:10501 6807 2517 665 269 237 615 
            39:10679 6928 2469 737 294 246 617 
            40:11153 7239 2704 693 242 274 700 
            41:11158 7362 2539 737 257 257 680 
            -------------------------------------------------------
            
            2009:
            33: 9666  6336  2280  633  225  190  588  
            34:10489  6780  2532  684  245  238  607  
            35: 9880  6484  2289  651  234  217  519  
            36: 9099  5874  2221  585  226  191  541  
            37:11250  7275  2749  718  270  236  683  
            38:10762  6996  2585  677  259  238  661  
            39: 9589  6309  2250  588  226  213  620  
            40:10612  6890  2585  672  258  207  715  
            41: 9964  6643  2289  604  232  194  684  
            ------------------------------------------------------------
            semaine
            morts total
            mourit a ans >64
            mourit a ans 25-64
            mourit a ans 1-24
            mourit a ans 0-1
            mourit en pneumonie ou grippe




            deaths in weeks 33-41

            Code:
             year    all   >65   45-64 25-44  1-24   <1   P+I
            ----------------------------------------------------
             1996  99372  65650  19326  9165  2830  2243  5477                      
             1997 101513  67891  19627  8593  2894  2334  5528                     
             1998  99204  67010  19231  7895  2612  2330  5859                      
             1999  91649  62216  17932  7027  2353  2061  5357                      
             2000 100245  67727  19785  7558  2828  2242  6493                     
             2001  91262  61645  18202  6984  2425  1943  5667                      
             2002  90598  60178  19003  6860  2470  2040  5330                      
             2003  93517  61386  19905  7018  2581  2096  5507                      
             2004  95798  63157  21171  6805  2557  2045  5763                      
             2005  91397  59588  20775  6533  2416  2043  5366                      
             2006  96772  63086  22152  6817  2405  2253  5524                      
             2007  92517  60007  21421  6472  2388  2165  5315                      
             2008  96091  62410  22812  6307  2340  2187  5665                      
             2009  91311  59587  21780  5812  2175  1924  5618                      
            ----------------------------------------------------

            the pandemic 2nd wave in USA significantly reduced
            deaths in the young (<45 years)

            (if I made no mistake...)
            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
            my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

            Comment


            • #21
              Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 39

              If those are deaths from all causes, then 2009 is less than many previous years and does not stand out. For P&I deaths, it's in the middle of the range, but still does not stand out. However, the real indicator of this pandemic's impact for me is the number of pediatric deaths. In the U.S., for the 2008-09 season there were on the order of 170 pediatric deaths, over half of which occurred after the flu season traditionally ends. I would imagine that if we compared pediatric deaths due to influenza for Weeks 33-41, we'd see a striking increase this year compared with previous years. Based on the numbers we've been tracking, it's probably at least 10x higher than the average.
              "I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta

              Comment


              • #22
                Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 39

                what do you mean with pediatric deaths ?

                only 1924 were dying at age <1year , clearly below the average
                (all causes)
                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                Comment


                • #23
                  Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 39

                  Originally posted by gsgs View Post
                  what do you mean with pediatric deaths ?

                  only 1924 were dying at age <1year , clearly below the average
                  (all causes)
                  Pediatric deaths (children <18 yrs) by influenza is a nationally reportable death. One of the tables in the MMWR lists the number to date (by calendar year) and lists the number from each state from the reporting week.
                  "I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 39

                    maybe more died from influenza than in other years, I don't know.
                    But if, then it saved the lifes of more others !

                    Coincidence ?
                    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 39

                      Week 41 comparison with previous years;

                      Age---<1 --- 1-24---25-44---45-64----65+----Total-----P&I
                      2009:194----232----604-----2289----6643-----9964----684
                      %:--1.95%--2.33%-6.06%---23.0%---66.7%------------6.86%

                      2008:257----257----737-----2539----7362-----11158---680
                      %:--2.30%--2.30%-6.61%---22.8%---66.0%------------6.09%

                      2007:203----257----735-----2309----6801-----10307---614
                      %:--1.97%--2.49%-7.13%---22.4%---66.0%------------5.96%

                      Just like last week, P&I is marginally higher in number, and significantly higher as a percentage of overall deaths. Again a thousand less deaths in total than last year.
                      Twitter: @RonanKelly13
                      The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 41

                        Chicago has not reported on the 122 cities list since week 32. Lacking the deaths reportable from Chicago, the totals are 4 or 5% lower than they would be. This makes trying to find trends in year-to-year data more problematic.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 41

                          Given the lag time, I expect that we'll see 2009 start to diverge from past years.

                          The total number of confirmed H1N1 deaths in the U.S. has increased by almost 120 since last Friday. This is based on the count we are keeping independent of the CDC numbers and does not include non-influenza respiratory deaths. I'll post the numbers tomorrow, but this is probably more than double any prior weeks.
                          "I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 41

                            Originally posted by Chuck View Post
                            Chicago has not reported on the 122 cities list since week 32. Lacking the deaths reportable from Chicago, the totals are 4 or 5% lower than they would be. This makes trying to find trends in year-to-year data more problematic.
                            Cities not reporting Week 41;

                            2009: Hartford CT, New Haven CT, Jersey City NJ, Chicago IL, El Paso TX, Fort Worth TX, New Orleans LA, Long Beach CA.

                            2008: New Haven CT, Jersey City NJ, Baton Rouge LA, New orleans LA, Albuquerque, NM

                            2007: Los Angeles CA, Glendale CA, New Orleans LA.
                            Twitter: @RonanKelly13
                            The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 41

                              yes, there is a delay for deaths.
                              Also some cities are not reporting - I'll make a new table
                              to account for that...
                              You can of course compare the 122-cities with the national total,
                              the data should be available - but some years delayed.
                              I haven't yet done this, but it should be interesting.

                              But we had the full wave in New York already earlier -
                              there was no effect seen in the deaths-statistics, see below.


                              Code:
                              deaths in New York City  weeks 1-16 and 17-32
                              year      >65y      45-64y      25-44y    1-25y    0-1y      P+I
                              -------------------------------------------------------------------
                              1996: 14227 12538 ,4331 3927 ,2629 2204 ,376 387 ,355 299 , 959 632
                              1997: 14491 12552 ,4038 3675 ,1869 1689 ,351 348 ,313 276 ,1020 699
                              1998: 14031 12118 ,3886 3572 ,1537 1418 ,281 309 ,282 243 , 954 658
                              1999: 15146 12343 ,4130 3676 ,1402 1441 ,315 357 ,289 261 , 395 388
                              2000: 14491 12043 ,4094 3571 ,1483 1317 ,340 284 ,269 250 , 676 645
                              2001: 13636 12384 ,3994 3699 ,1285 1300 ,298 310 ,221 225 , 884 701
                              2002: 13838 11945 ,4089 3649 ,1419 1344 ,297 308 ,280 204 , 941 646
                              2003: 13692 11687 ,3912 3648 ,1192 1190 ,309 289 ,253 231 , 901 720
                              2004: 14787 11494 ,4266 3550 ,1270 1059 ,321 314 ,247 248 ,1270 775
                              2005: 14352 11398 ,4159 3631 ,1143  990 ,292 309 ,241 239 ,1220 777
                              2006: 12700 11518 ,3737 3557 ,1045  965 ,252 294 ,213 245 , 950 708
                              2007: 12406 11124 ,3824 3482 , 921  986 ,245 260 ,220 192 , 872 647
                              2008: 12884 10957 ,3806 3550 , 947  956 ,273 263 ,242 197 , 847 673
                              2009: 12397 10674 ,3773 3546 , 872  888 ,242 239 ,237 192 , 792 600
                              ---------------------------------------------------------------------
                              mean: 13791 11769 ,4002 3623 ,1358 1267 ,299 305 ,261 235 , 905 662
                              
                              
                              deaths in USA weeks 1-16 and 17-32
                              year:     >65y     ,   45-64y  ,  25-44y   ,  1-25y  ,  0-1y   ,   P+I
                              ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              1996: 144949 127931,39817 37190,19178 17941,5278 5327,4482 4472,15008 11161    
                              1997: 147306 126094,38614 36012,16184 15174,4993 5171,4335 4065,16296 11268    
                              1998: 151052 128947,39603 37112,15116 14930,4843 5069,4454 4248,17134 11225    
                              1999: 154896 126014,40402 36741,14889 14159,4823 4750,4226 4079,17128 10927    
                              2000: 154656 129074,42116 37738,15183 14540,4804 4964,4433 4149,19934 12725    
                              2001: 147559 131109,41507 38605,14671 14492,4708 5139,4158 4070,16463 12868    
                              2002: 145151 125257,41529 39081,14334 14329,4918 5067,4237 4126,16901 12132    
                              2003: 139910 122303,41780 39136,14102 13614,5281 5019,4372 4003,15547 11969    
                              2004: 151276 120159,45366 39664,14105 12729,4851 4788,4301 3928,18120 11450    
                              2005: 143124 120179,43803 40700,12925 12572,4429 4875,4005 4039,17289 11593    
                              2006: 135635 119621,43768 41687,12821 12530,4559 4883,4100 3983,14870 11098    
                              2007: 135825 118603,44993 41182,12578 12690,4572 4803,4267 4171,14405 11094    
                              2008: 139225 117484,45294 41812,12004 11976,4378 4538,4341 4047,16635 11798    
                              2009: 134837 115775,45873 42351,12202 11552,4272 4371,4141 3876,14476 11539    
                              ---------------------------------------------------------------------------     
                              mean: 144671 123467,42461 39215,14306 13802,4764 4911,4275 4089,16443 11631

                              calculated excess deaths in New York City as compared to the national average
                              in the 2nd third of 2009 relative to the first third in the 6 groups are:
                              -30,+63,+62,-09,-30,-31

                              or as compared to the NY-average:
                              +95,+130,+74,-8,-21,+21

                              so the effect is negative, but not big. Fewer people than normal
                              died from P+I, fewer young people than normal died while more people
                              aged 25-64 died.






                              Code:
                              deaths in 122 US-cities  weeks 1-32 and 33-41 (adjusted for nonreports)
                              year      >64     ,   45-64   ,   25-44  ,   1-24   ,  0-1    ,  P+I
                              -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              1996: 272880 68081,77007 20053,37119 9404,10605 2918,8954 2320,26169 5721      
                              1997: 273400 69367,74626 20111,31358 8755,10164 2950,8400 2379,27564 5688      
                              1998: 279999 69090,76715 19997,30046 8179, 9912 2711,8702 2407,28359 6076       
                              1999: 280910 68590,77143 20313,29048 7936, 9573 2656,8305 2304,28055 5944       
                              2000: 283730 70503,79854 20789,29723 7955, 9768 2964,8582 2349,32659 6738       
                              2001: 278668 70431,80112 21284,29163 8179, 9847 2825,8228 2248,29331 6429       
                              2002: 270408 67293,80610 21657,28663 7935, 9985 2873,8363 2358,29033 6078       
                              2003: 262213 65312,80916 21252,27716 7507,10300 2768,8375 2248,27516 5925      
                              2004: 271435 64856,85030 21695,26834 6994, 9639 2625,8229 2099,29570 5941       
                              2005: 263303 63380,84503 21923,25497 6970, 9304 2591,8044 2168,28882 5729       
                              2006: 255256 64277,85455 22539,25351 6985, 9442 2485,8083 2297,25968 5615       
                              2007: 254428 63692,86175 22584,25268 6961, 9375 2579,8438 2289,25499 5636       
                              2008: 256709 63826,87106 23292,23980 6506, 8916 2431,8388 2243,28433 5794       
                              2009: 250612 64258,88224 23516,23754 6512, 8643 2451,8017 2139,26015 6067       
                              -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              mean: 268139 66639,81676 21500,28108 7627, 9676 2701,8364 2274,28075 5955
                              excess deaths in the 7 groups: +1975,+292,+66,+38,-41,+549


                              so, just comparing with the first 32 weeks in 2009,
                              during the 2nd wave 2009 in USA we have :

                              549 more deaths from pneumonia+influenza than expected
                              3 fewer deaths in the young (<25y) than expected
                              2333 more adult(>24y) deaths than expected

                              but it seems that this is mainly due to fewer deaths in the
                              first 32 weeks in 2009 than normal
                              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                              my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Re: Weekly MMWR - Updated through Week 41

                                Attached Files
                                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                                my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                                Comment

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