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I think, there is a problem with some cities not updating in some weeks and holidays
which make some weeks shorter and the next one longer.
So when looking at P+I, I divided by all deaths to cancel out this effect.
However, all deaths in week 23-29 this year were ~4% less than the
average 1996-2008 in the MMWR database, while P+I increased in that period.
the ratio of P+I deaths in USA in weeks 23-29 this year was 8% higher than the average
in 1996-2009 for that period. That would give 1500 excess deaths in USA from P+I
in these 7 weeks.
This is assuming that the reason for total deaths going down this year in that
period was missing reports from some cities or population movements.
all deaths in weeks 23-29
deaths from P+I in weeks 23-29
----------------------------
1996: 80693,4418
1997: 78023,4565
1998: 82392,4580
1999: 72259,3992
2000: 78054,5098
2001: 79704,5194
2002: 71705,4421
2003: 73577,4653
2004: 77263,4885
2005: 76892,4686
2006: 76883,4549
2007: 72779,4350
2008: 77355,4958
2009: 73246,4832
and the same for New York City:
1996:8343,291
1997:8083,310
1998:7788,276
1999:7968,169
2000:7696,286
2001:7903,312
2002:7547,274
2003:7589,307
2004:7306,337
2005:7242,326
2006:7217,341
2007:5876,248
2008:7037,265
2009:6664,263
I think, there is a problem with some cities not updating in some weeks and holidays
which make some weeks shorter and the next one longer. . .
something is wrong here
Unless there is a math or calculation error the deviation is puzzling. Regardless of holidays or not, the number of people that died in a seven day period should be easily countable. Unless, of course, the data tabulators are so overworked now that they can not keep up with the reporting requirements.
5.90,6.08,5.79,5.25,5.96,6.07,6.14,6.47,6.74 USA
4.05,3.24,4.48,3.38,4.35,4.34,4.29,5.63,4.81 Mid-Atlantic
8.70,9.78,8.05,7.52,9.41,9.59,8.58,8.38,8.02 Pacific
5.85,6.13,5.70,5.53,5.18,5.87,6.11,5.69,6.97 South
If those are deaths from all causes, then 2009 is less than many previous years and does not stand out. For P&I deaths, it's in the middle of the range, but still does not stand out. However, the real indicator of this pandemic's impact for me is the number of pediatric deaths. In the U.S., for the 2008-09 season there were on the order of 170 pediatric deaths, over half of which occurred after the flu season traditionally ends. I would imagine that if we compared pediatric deaths due to influenza for Weeks 33-41, we'd see a striking increase this year compared with previous years. Based on the numbers we've been tracking, it's probably at least 10x higher than the average.
"I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta
only 1924 were dying at age <1year , clearly below the average
(all causes)
Pediatric deaths (children <18 yrs) by influenza is a nationally reportable death. One of the tables in the MMWR lists the number to date (by calendar year) and lists the number from each state from the reporting week.
"I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta
Just like last week, P&I is marginally higher in number, and significantly higher as a percentage of overall deaths. Again a thousand less deaths in total than last year.
Twitter: @RonanKelly13
The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.
Chicago has not reported on the 122 cities list since week 32. Lacking the deaths reportable from Chicago, the totals are 4 or 5% lower than they would be. This makes trying to find trends in year-to-year data more problematic.
Given the lag time, I expect that we'll see 2009 start to diverge from past years.
The total number of confirmed H1N1 deaths in the U.S. has increased by almost 120 since last Friday. This is based on the count we are keeping independent of the CDC numbers and does not include non-influenza respiratory deaths. I'll post the numbers tomorrow, but this is probably more than double any prior weeks.
"I know God will not give me anything I can't handle. I just wish that He didn't trust me so much." - Mother Teresa of Calcutta
Chicago has not reported on the 122 cities list since week 32. Lacking the deaths reportable from Chicago, the totals are 4 or 5% lower than they would be. This makes trying to find trends in year-to-year data more problematic.
Cities not reporting Week 41;
2009: Hartford CT, New Haven CT, Jersey City NJ, Chicago IL, El Paso TX, Fort Worth TX, New Orleans LA, Long Beach CA.
2008: New Haven CT, Jersey City NJ, Baton Rouge LA, New orleans LA, Albuquerque, NM
2007: Los Angeles CA, Glendale CA, New Orleans LA.
Twitter: @RonanKelly13
The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.
yes, there is a delay for deaths.
Also some cities are not reporting - I'll make a new table
to account for that...
You can of course compare the 122-cities with the national total,
the data should be available - but some years delayed.
I haven't yet done this, but it should be interesting.
But we had the full wave in New York already earlier -
there was no effect seen in the deaths-statistics, see below.
calculated excess deaths in New York City as compared to the national average
in the 2nd third of 2009 relative to the first third in the 6 groups are:
-30,+63,+62,-09,-30,-31
or as compared to the NY-average:
+95,+130,+74,-8,-21,+21
so the effect is negative, but not big. Fewer people than normal
died from P+I, fewer young people than normal died while more people
aged 25-64 died.
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