Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Discussion thread III - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts


  • Get a "Flu" Buddy

    Talk to your friends and family about "what if". Who will watch your children if the schools and day cares close?

    And...Yes....This is a Pandemic.

    Adopt A Granny!

    https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/831424-time-to-line-up-a-%60flu-buddy…
    @Fla_Medic

    https://ready.gov/pandemic #coronavirus #COVIDー19

    Comment



    • US viewers:

      Do not expect fed, state, county, city govs to do much for you. Lower your expectations now.

      Personal experience is gov help in hurricanes is not great. Mostly on your own.

      #coronavirus will be same.

      Only you can protect you.

      #COVID19 #CoronavirusOutbreak

      Comment


      • hat tip Jason Gale

        I have permission to post this article in its entirety

        via FT email -



        Fauci Says Sense on Coronavirus Scope Is ‘Not Encouraging’ (1)
        2020-03-08 17:46:41.543 GMT


        By Elizabeth Dexheimer
        (Bloomberg) -- “Social distancing” will become more
        prevalent in the U.S. over the next three months as the nation
        attempts to tamp down the spread of the new coronavirus, Anthony
        Fauci said Sunday.
        “We’re getting a better sense as the days go by” of the
        scope of the outbreak in the U.S., Fauci, director of the
        National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on
        NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “Unfortunately, that better sense is not
        encouraging, because we’re seeing community spread.”
        Also on Sunday, Scott Gottlieb, the former head of the U.S.
        Food and Drug Administration, said the U.S. needs “a
        comprehensive plan” for cities, with support from the federal
        government.
        Gottlieb and Fauci spoke as the Trump administration
        remains under fire in some quarters for its response to the
        fast-spreading virus -- but a response that President Donald
        Trump on Sunday called “perfectly coordinated and fine tuned.”
        Donald J. Trump
        @realDonaldTrump
        We have a perfectly coordinated and fine tuned plan at the
        White House for our attack on CoronaVirus. We moved VERY early
        to close borders to certain areas, which was a Godsend. V.P. is
        doing a great job. The Fake News Media is doing everything
        possible to make us look bad. Sad!
        Sent via Twitter for iPhone.
        View original tweet.
        The president is spending the weekend at his Florida
        resort; on Friday he visited the headquarters of the Centers for
        Disease Control and Prevention, the hub of the federal effort to
        combat the virus.
        “If you’re a vulnerable person, take it seriously, because
        particularly when you have community spread, you may not know at
        any given time that there are people who are infected,” Fauci
        said of the idea of social distancing, or actions that include
        avoiding large gatherings. “It’s common-sense stuff.”
        The “draconian” quarantine measures taken by China, while
        they’ve worked to prevent a broader advance of the disease
        beyond Wuhan province, are “something we never would be able to
        do” in the U.S., he added. Italy also imposed more stringent
        travel restrictions early Sunday.
        “I don’t imagine that the degree of the draconian nature of
        what the Chinese did would ever be either feasible, applicable,
        doable or whatever you want to call it in the United States,”
        Fauci said in an interview with CBS’s “60 Minutes” that will be
        broadcast on Sunday, according to a partial transcript provided
        by the network.
        Read more on the coronavirus here.
        “Even though there are a lot of things that have unintended
        negative consequences of that, I think it did help dampen what
        would have been” an even worse outbreak, Fauci said of China on
        NBC. “Wuhan was terrible. But I think they prevented a broader
        spread.”
        The spread of the highly infectious virus continues to
        advance across the globe. As of Sunday, about half of the
        world’s countries have reported cases of Covid-19, according to
        the World Health Organization. The global death count outside of
        China is approaching 500.
        Italy, Europe’s most hard-hit nation, said it’s restricting
        movement and activity for a quarter of its population in the
        region around the financial capital of Milan.
        Fauci said a vaccine deployable against Covid-19 will not
        be available “for at least a year to a year and a half.”

        Tough Two Months

        Gottlieb, who departed as Trump’s FDA commissioner in
        April, said Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation” that the U.S. is
        “past the point of containment and broad mitigation strategies.”

        “The next few weeks will change the complexion in this
        country,”said Gottlieb, who’s now a special partner at New
        Enterprise Associates, a venture capital firm that invests in
        the health-care and biotech sectors. “We’ll get through this,
        but it’s going to be a hard period. We’re looking at two months,
        probably, of difficulty.”


        Gottlieb said he was still in talks with people in the
        Trump administration, recommending that “a very big federal
        bailout package” for businesses, individuals, cities and states
        be done sooner rather than later.

        Comment


        • Let me take a wild guess, the statement "we're looking at two months, probably, of difficulty" is based on the R0 and SI of a typical influenza virus, right? Sars-cov2 is not influenza. Whilst it appears to have a pretty high R0 and spreads via fomite and aerosol as well as droplet, it also has a pretty slow SI, which means it moves from generation of infection fairly slowly. I don't think 2 months is right, I think it will be much longer (in my opinion) and will result in much greater population exposure totals as well.

          Comment


          • Vibrant62
            Vibrant62 commented
            Editing a comment
            Completely agree with you. I think the modelling has used too many variables as if this were flu, and has not taken sufficient account of the different dynamics of COVID, but then again, I am not properly qualified in this area to judge.

        • What do we think is going on in Italy? That was a massive jump in deaths yesterday - increase of 133 deaths, to a total of 366. Whilst I agree that CFR measures are highly variable and therefore of limited value, (e.g. that mild infections in the community may be missed unless extensive contact tracing has been done with testing - but think they have been good on this? or not?) that gives them a CFR of 5%. Just a few days ago it was tracking at slightly under 4%. Italy has a fairly good healthcare system. Boris has also called an emergency COBRA meeting more or less in the middle of the night, ostensibly because UK has had 3rd death. Has there been a recent sequence analysis of the cases in N italy? I am just wondering if something is 'up'.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Vibrant62 View Post
            What do we think is going on in Italy? That was a massive jump in deaths yesterday - increase of 133 deaths, to a total of 366. Whilst I agree that CFR measures are highly variable and therefore of limited value, (e.g. that mild infections in the community may be missed unless extensive contact tracing has been done with testing - but think they have been good on this? or not?) that gives them a CFR of 5%. Just a few days ago it was tracking at slightly under 4%. Italy has a fairly good healthcare system. Boris has also called an emergency COBRA meeting more or less in the middle of the night, ostensibly because UK has had 3rd death. Has there been a recent sequence analysis of the cases in N italy? I am just wondering if something is 'up'.
            And why no deaths in Germany - what is the reason for that?

            Article below says Italy has an aging population - so does Germany have a much younger one?
            https://www.thelocal.it/20200305/ana...eaths-in-italy


            ETA: Germany doesn't seem to differ much in median age from Italy.
            https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statis...8_(years)_.png
            Never forget Excalibur.
            “‘i love myself.’ the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever.” ---- nayyirah waheed
            Avatar: Franz Marc, Liegender Hund im Schnee 1911 (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)

            Comment


            • to Fauci : don't talk about the Chinese measures in Wuhan. USA has no Wuhan yet. Talk about the Chinese measures to get the spread outside
              of Wuhan under control. Masks, fever screening, extended holidays, and in some few cities in Zhejiang reduced shopping 1/family/2days .
              Traffic reduction in some cities (Beijing, buses; ... mainly to protect from Wuhan) . Extensive contact-tracing, telemedicine ,
              fever-reporting, home isolation . What else ?
              I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
              my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

              Comment


              • Emily, just luck. Also German cases are more recent, consider the delay to death. 5 days until confirmation, 4 days until
                death in Italy so far , I read
                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                Comment


                • Focustaiwan: Taipei, March 9 (CNA)
                  A leading public health expert in Taiwan has urged the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare COVID-19 a pandemic due to the surge in cases and spread of the disease around the globe...
                  https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202003090015

                  Comment


                  • Numbers are possibly up in Italy as they have had to make decisions

                    https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/202...venza/5729020/
                    "If you could for a moment rise up out of your own beloved skin and appraise ant, human, and virus as equally resourceful beings, you might admire the accord they have all struck in Africa. Back in your skin of course, you'll shriek for a cure. But remember: air travel, roads, cities, prostitution, the congregation of people for efficient commerce - these are gifts of godspeed to the virus"
                    The Poisonwood Bible

                    Comment


                    • It's been a long while since I've posted anything and I hope this is the right spot for this. Regarding vaccine trials: My daughter is living in London and one of her friends will be participating in this human vaccine trial, mostly because it looks to pay fairly well. Participants will be infected with a milder strain of the coronavirus, quarantined for 14 days then released back into the general population. She will be sure to keep me updated. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...p-vaccine.html

                      Comment


                      • Good Lord - this sounds awful. - Ro

                        ‘I feel the pressure to give you a quick personal update about what is happening in Italy, and also give some quick direct advice about what you should do.

                        First, Lumbardy is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Aus and don’t make the mistake to think that what is happening is happening in a 3rd world country.

                        The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200% capacity

                        We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ITUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of pts with severe resp failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.

                        Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.

                        My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.

                        We have seen the same pattern in different areas a week apart, and there is no reason that in a few weeks it won’t be the same everywhere, this is the pattern:

                        1)A few positive cases, first mild measures, people are told to avoid ED but still hang out in groups, everyone says not to panick
                        2)Some moderate resp failures and a few severe ones that need tube, but regular access to ED is significantly reduced so everything looks great

                        3)Tons of patients with moderate resp failure, that overtime deteriorate to saturate ICUs first, then NIVs, then CPAP hoods, then even O2.
                        4)Staff gets sick so it gets difficult to cover for shifts, mortality spikes also from all other causes that can’t be treated properly.


                        Everything about how to treat them is online but the only things that will make a difference are: do not be afraid of massively strict measures to keep people safe,

                        f governments won’t do this at least keep your family safe, your loved ones with history of cancer or diabetes or any transplant will not be tubed if they need it even if they are young. By safe I mean YOU do not attend them and YOU decide who does and YOU teach them how to.

                        Another typical attitude is read and listen to people saying things like this and think “that’s bad dude” and then go out for dinner because you think you’ll be safe.

                        We have seen it, you won’t be if you don’t take it seriously. I really hope it won’t be as bad as here but prepare.
                        https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/s...g-zVUhwEO8z8-w
                        Twitter: @RonanKelly13
                        The views expressed are mine alone and do not represent the views of my employer or any other person or organization.

                        Comment


                        • I have no medical training or anything atall, I'm just very interested in epidemics etc. I'd like to ask those who know more what happens after the first wave - if we stay isolated up here (which we can do) then what? Will the virus die back suring summer and re- emerge in winter? Or is it more random? Or does nobody know because this is all new?
                          And thank you all for a very interesting debate in here

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by gsgs View Post
                            Emily, just luck. Also German cases are more recent, consider the delay to death. 5 days until confirmation, 4 days until
                            death in Italy so far , I read
                            That could certainly be the case, gsgs. I saw that 2 deaths are reported now in Germany. I did wonder if they might have a milder strain there. I hope the numbers stay better there for whatever reason. The initial cases in Germany seemed very mild, including the visitor from China and her parents' cases, if I have that right. The initial case in the Seattle area seemed rough for a non-smoker in his 30's with just a history of hypertriglyceridemia.

                            The earliest case in Italy also sounds like it was rough for a person that was only 38. So maybe there are strain differences.
                            Never forget Excalibur.
                            “‘i love myself.’ the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever.” ---- nayyirah waheed
                            Avatar: Franz Marc, Liegender Hund im Schnee 1911 (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by B.C. View Post
                              Numbers are possibly up in Italy as they have had to make decisions

                              https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/202...venza/5729020/
                              I wondered about that going on in the Life Care situation in Kirkland. From what I see so far, everyone is being treated as needed since the regional hospital system has had beds. Though there is this from an article Treyfish posted:
                              "In Bellevue, officials at Overlake said a man in his 80s passed away after he tested positive for COVID-19. The man had also been a resident of Life Care Center before he was admitted to the hospital for comfort care."
                              Never forget Excalibur.
                              “‘i love myself.’ the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever.” ---- nayyirah waheed
                              Avatar: Franz Marc, Liegender Hund im Schnee 1911 (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X