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Discussion thread III - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

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  • Discussion thread III - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

    Please see the previous discussion thread here.

    https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...navirus/page31

    ------------------------------------------------



    There is a question about CDC double speak.

    It is in reference to this paragraph:

    "The potential public health threat posed by COVID-19 is high, both globally and to the United States. The fact that this disease has caused illness, including illness resulting in death, and sustained person-to-person spread in China is concerning. These factors meet two of the criteria of a pandemic. It’s unclear how the situation will unfold, but risk is dependent on exposure. At this time, some people will have an increased risk of infection, for example healthcare workers caring for patients with COVID-19 and other close contacts of patients with COVID-19. For the general American public, who are unlikely to be exposed to this virus, the immediate health risk from COVID-19 is considered low at this time." link


    1) The CDC is seeing what we see globally and it looks bad. For instance, look at South Korea, Japan, Iran and Italy. Exponential growth.

    2) There is no sustained human to human transmission in the U.S. at this minute. No one knows how many people are actually infected in the U.S. It appears there are not a lot of people hospitalized who are ill with an unknown pneumonia. Some states like Florida will not release the stats on how many suspected cases they are testing. It seems we will know only when there is already a confirmed case who may, or may not, have wandered around for two weeks while mildly sick.

    3) The CDC knows that pandemic modelling shows at least as many people die from collateral damage as from the disease itself. That is - people who are ill with another disease and can not get treatment in a pandemic situation - and violence. TPTB are terrified of pan ic. All of us can see the videos of a $50.00 off sale on televisions during the holidays. Complete pandemonium. So government officials want to warn people but not send them into a pan ic.

    For me - I read the first sentence and that is really what they are saying. The last sentence is not pertinent. We do not know who is exposed to the virus until after an infection is discovered.
    Last edited by sharon sanders; February 22, 2020, 05:21 PM. Reason: added top sentence and link

  • #2
    Originally posted by sharon sanders View Post
    Hi!

    I am asking all of our participants to get off the computer a few hours this weekend and please prepare for a potential pandemic. I know what you are doing....you are spending all of your free time here to warn people about what is happening world wide.

    You need to take some time for yourselves this weekend and be sure your family is ready just-in-case. You will be no good here if you are worried about things in your home.

    I know it is hard - but please do it.

    We do not know what is going to happen but prepare anyway for a two week quarantine. I know you know this already. Please do it.

    Here are our links on site so you do not have to look for them:

    https://www.ready.gov/pandemic

    https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...or-one-30-days


    -----------------------------------------

    As a comment - we do NOT endorse anything that the W.H.O. or US CDC does - but they do have some great resources to look at. Hey! we paid for these tools - use them.

    Don't let some of their questionable actions detract from some of their good tools, papers, etc.
    I can't agree with you more. Glued to the info highways like that scene in "Signs" - waiting apprehensively for the next move.

    May I add - spend some time with loved ones, especially those in the high risk groups - before worrying if the next cold symptoms might kill them.

    p.s. already picked up frosted cherry pop tarts. Thank you for the encouragement!

    Comment


    • #3
      Top It Off Weekend is a great idea, thank you Sharon! I have been slowly gathering things since mid-January and I plan on finishing everything tomorrow. I am actually getting a bunch of freezer stuff for my finicky kids, as I figure the power won’t be an issue, at least for a while. I’d rather save my shelf stable items for if things reach a full SHTF scenario later on. Unfortunately, I have met EXTREME resistance from my immediate family who think I am literally insane and hysterical for preparing for the possibility of quarantine (self imposed or otherwise). It has been stressful, to say the least.

      I was wondering if anyone here has any suggestions on schooling. I am very conflicted about whether or not to pull my kids out of school. We live right outside of Philadelphia in NJ and I am afraid if I wait for confirmed cases it may be too late. I do not want to disrupt my kids’ education needlessly, but I am quite concerned. My 10 year old is going on a field trip to tour a local university Monday, and I am getting nervous about that as well. Any thoughts or advice on this matter would be amazing. Thanks!

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Redcass View Post
        Top It Off Weekend is a great idea, thank you Sharon! I have been slowly gathering things since mid-January and I plan on finishing everything tomorrow. I am actually getting a bunch of freezer stuff for my finicky kids, as I figure the power won’t be an issue, at least for a while. I’d rather save my shelf stable items for if things reach a full SHTF scenario later on. Unfortunately, I have met EXTREME resistance from my immediate family who think I am literally insane and hysterical for preparing for the possibility of quarantine (self imposed or otherwise). It has been stressful, to say the least.

        I was wondering if anyone here has any suggestions on schooling. I am very conflicted about whether or not to pull my kids out of school. We live right outside of Philadelphia in NJ and I am afraid if I wait for confirmed cases it may be too late. I do not want to disrupt my kids’ education needlessly, but I am quite concerned. My 10 year old is going on a field trip to tour a local university Monday, and I am getting nervous about that as well. Any thoughts or advice on this matter would be amazing. Thanks!
        From the experience elsewhere, you have at least another couple of weeks before you really need to get concerned. That will allow the cruise ship passengers to complete quarantine, which should give some reliable propagation numbers. After mid March, if we have over 500 cases in the US, you might want to get really cautious about school and any social interactions. We'll know by April whether we have a SARS style fizzle or a pandemic, but why take chances?

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Redcass View Post
          Top It Off Weekend is a great idea, thank you Sharon! I have been slowly gathering things since mid-January and I plan on finishing everything tomorrow. I am actually getting a bunch of freezer stuff for my finicky kids, as I figure the power won’t be an issue, at least for a while. I’d rather save my shelf stable items for if things reach a full SHTF scenario later on. Unfortunately, I have met EXTREME resistance from my immediate family who think I am literally insane and hysterical for preparing for the possibility of quarantine (self imposed or otherwise). It has been stressful, to say the least.

          I was wondering if anyone here has any suggestions on schooling. I am very conflicted about whether or not to pull my kids out of school. We live right outside of Philadelphia in NJ and I am afraid if I wait for confirmed cases it may be too late. I do not want to disrupt my kids’ education needlessly, but I am quite concerned. My 10 year old is going on a field trip to tour a local university Monday, and I am getting nervous about that as well. Any thoughts or advice on this matter would be amazing. Thanks!
          If it gets going - we will all have to reckon with the virus. Don't think there will be much ability to totally avoid the virus and still live day to day in a quasi-normal life for a long time.

          We are preparing for the situations we are seeing around the world. Towns and cities shut down, schools closed, businesses closed, etc... trains not stopping to pick people up in some areas (Italy). Already a city in CA has initiated law to prevent confirmed cases from being housed there - even though there have not been any situations where infection and treatment in a confined area spread from a facility in the US. The latter seems more like fear - and fear is just as scary as the virus. We are preparing for pandamonium. Our area - we would not be surprised to see the town cordone itself off and prevent people from entering.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Redcass View Post
            Top It Off Weekend is a great idea, thank you Sharon! I have been slowly gathering things since mid-January and I plan on finishing everything tomorrow. I am actually getting a bunch of freezer stuff for my finicky kids, as I figure the power won’t be an issue, at least for a while. I’d rather save my shelf stable items for if things reach a full SHTF scenario later on. Unfortunately, I have met EXTREME resistance from my immediate family who think I am literally insane and hysterical for preparing for the possibility of quarantine (self imposed or otherwise). It has been stressful, to say the least.

            I was wondering if anyone here has any suggestions on schooling. I am very conflicted about whether or not to pull my kids out of school. We live right outside of Philadelphia in NJ and I am afraid if I wait for confirmed cases it may be too late. I do not want to disrupt my kids’ education needlessly, but I am quite concerned. My 10 year old is going on a field trip to tour a local university Monday, and I am getting nervous about that as well. Any thoughts or advice on this matter would be amazing. Thanks!
            If it makes you feel better I am a doctor and taking the family to Disneyland this weekend. Risk in the US is low right now. However as a physician I know this may change in a few weeks so enjoy life and plan for the worst.
            No reason to take kids out of school.

            Comment


            • #7
              I wonder why it is necessary to take folks in quarantine at Travis AFB north of the SF Bay area and move them to a facility in Costa Mesa in SoCal. I guess I'm as prepared as is reasonable. I'd put off a run to Costco which is 90 miles away from my home in rural Sw Virginia but finally got it done this past week. Brought home 90 rolls of toilet paper since i was about out and i only make that long trip every 3 or 4 months. Got an extra couple of bags of dry dog food and 2 bags of cat food for my house cat and the few ferals that hang out here.

              Since i am retired and quite the homebody it's not unusual for me to not leave my farm for a week or 10 days at a time even now. A 5 day power outage last year prompted me to purchase a generator and will soon have the electrician come in and get it properly hooked up. If we don't have power my well pump doesn't run and that's really the biggest inconvenience. I can imagine a scenario where there are rolling black outs if the power company has lots of employees out sick or home to care for family members. Or fuel shortages limit the number of crews they can send out or limit the deliveries to my local grocery store. Two freezers in the garage are pretty full and the shelves are loaded with canned goods and such.

              In late July each year there is a 5 day music festival (FloydFest) which generally draws more than 10,000 from all over, even overseas. Will it happen this year? This rural county is mainly agricultural and raises plenty of beef, hogs, chickens and some sheep and buffalo and we also have a good farmers market from May through October so there should be enough locally produced food here unless things run for a long time.

              I say some info about a big drop in the number of container ships cancelling bookings from Asia to Europe and assume that the USA will also see a big decline if this does become a bad pandemic.

              Two of the dogs are doing their Oscar caliber performance of "starving dogs" so I'd best go fix them dinner.

              Comment


              • #8
                new study with 93 genomes : started in Nov. outside the seafood market :http://chinaxiv.org/abs/202002.00033
                on the other hand, see this :
                =================================
                http://virological.org/t/phylodynami...0-feb-2020/356
                115 genomes
                exponential growth 0.92e-3 , 0.33e-3 – 1.46e-3
                (human flu has ~ 2.4e-3 , avian H5N1 had ~3.4e-3)
                TMRCA = mid-Dec , only one introduction.
                ========================================

                China,Wuhan updates are out , looks good :https://thisbluemarble.com/showthread.php?t=79295

                Xi - speech : https://ncovinfo.createaforum.com/ne...-to-the-world/
                Last edited by gsgs; February 23, 2020, 01:18 AM. Reason: virological-study added
                I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                Comment


                • #9

                  ran: All art and cinema shows will be closed in venues across the country by the end of this week (1/4/14).
                  all universities in 10 provinces, covering nearly half of the country, should be closed this week
                  The number of #Corona sufferers in Iran has soared to 28 this afternoon.
                  Italy : Another 14 cases confirmed At least 18 are serious
                  South Korea: - Total: 556 cases, 4 deaths - 6,039 people being tested
                  03:50 UTC
                  I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                  my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    how were all the people infected in the South Korean "church" ? they were just in the same room as the superspreader ?
                    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                    my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by gsgs View Post
                      how were all the people infected in the South Korean "church" ? they were just in the same room as the superspreader ?
                      From earlier reports it said the meetings for this church are known to be very close and cramped. That definitely helps.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        thanks. I missed that. You can't read all the reports, it's disorganised. Did it transmit through air , droplet/airborne or had they
                        common touches (papers,books) , common food, drinks (host (rel.)) , ceremonies (hand-shaking, kissing, nose rubbing, ...)

                        ------"doomsday cult church"----------
                        In South Korea many cases revolve around the Shincheonji Church which is considered to be cultlike.
                        According to the NY Times people sit on the floor packed together, with no glasses or facemasks,
                        they come when they are sick and are taught “not to be afraid of illness”. So the sudden freaky rise
                        may not reflect bad luck but a kind of amplified “superspreader on steroids” visits a “virus farm in waiting”. Unfortunately the authorities can’t find about 700 of the 1,000 worshippers who were there to check
                        them. If only patient #31 in South Korea had not turned up there with mild symptoms.
                        http://joannenova.com.au/2020/02/cor...ot-in-ukraine/
                        ------------------------

                        Hong Yeun-ho, who has been leading an anti-Shincheonji campaign after his daughter joined the
                        sect for two years, said hundreds of the church members sit on the floor in a tightly woven line.
                        -----------------------
                        nothing about possible transmission by means other than breathing
                        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                        my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Renewed Coronavirus Worries Lead To Sell-Off …Diese Seite übersetzen
                          https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/rene...s-worries-lead

                          There is a "high probability" the COVID-19 outbreak will be a temporary shock,
                          St. Louis Fed president James Bullard said Friday.

                          Top White House economist Larry Kudlow said Friday there doesn't seem to be a "major blow"
                          to the U.S. economy from the COVID-19 outbreak. …

                          --------------------------------------------------
                          temp.+humid. in Wuhan , Teheran : http://magictour.free.fr/wea4.GIF
                          --------------------------------------------------------------
                          carelessly spreading viruses in a situation like this should be forbidden , IMO , change the laws
                          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                          my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Feb23 , 07:20 UTC , : South Korea to raise virus alert level to red, president says - Yonhap
                            -----------------------------------
                            09:00 UTC South Korea delays start of school year by 1 week
                            -------------------------------------
                            08:10 UTC Al Arabiya, citing unidentified sources, says at least 18 people in Iran are believed
                            to have died of coronavirus.
                            ------------------------------------------------------------
                            08:00 UTC South Korea : 602 cases , 5 deaths , 8057 tested
                            -----------------------------------------------------------
                            South Korea President Moon: "Although the situation is grave, we can overcome it
                            we heard that from Xi End.Jan. and noone believed it
                            Now, this is South Korea, USA-Allied , what do US-people say now ?
                            -------------------------------------------------------
                            09:20 UTC : Italy reports 34 new cases of coronavirus, raising total to 113
                            @bnodesk
                            ---------------------------------------------
                            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                            my current links: http://bit.ly/hFI7H ILI-charts: http://bit.ly/CcRgT

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Lesson from Italy for all hospitals: approach all patients with respiratory problems with adequate preventive measures.

                              Amir Tsarfati
                              @BeholdIsrael
                              BREAKING - #Italy locks down the hospital Schiavonia in #Padua amid the #COVID19 outbreak. The 300 patients, 150 doctors, and nurses are quarantined and are not allowed to leave the hospital until they have been tested for the #coronavirus.
                              “Addressing chronic disease is an issue of human rights – that must be our call to arms"
                              Richard Horton, Editor-in-Chief The Lancet

                              ~~~~ Twitter:@GertvanderHoek ~~~ GertvanderHoek@gmail.com ~~~

                              Comment

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