Discussion thread II - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

[Treyfish]

February 3, 2020?2 min read Some People are Recovering From Coronavirus in 2 Days With Flu and HIV Drugs

Thailand has reported promising results in the treatment of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) on Sunday.

According to the kingdom’s health ministry, a 71-year-old female patient — a Chinese national — tested negative for the pathogen 48 hours after doctors administered a combination of antiviral drugs..


Doctors combined lopinavir and ritonavir, medications used for managing HIV, with oseltamivir, a drug for treating influenza. They are currently waiting for research results to confirm the findings.

“The lab result of the positive on the coronavirus turned negative in 48 hours,” Dr. Kriengsak Attipornwanich said, according to AFP. “From being exhausted before, she [patient] could sit up in bed 12 hours later.”....https://nextshark.com/thailand-coronavirus-treatment/

[Rocky]

US deaths from influenza 2020 - 4800

What are we calling ours if theirs is a Pandemic...

[gsgs]

Daily provincial data from China via this link: http://2019ncov.chinacdc.cn/2019-nCoV/

https://ncov2019.live/data

in English

[Gert van der Hoek]

https://ncov2019.live/data

in English

Cool!

[Toaster2]

https://ncov2019.live/data

in English

Great link.

I did some headcalculations based on # of serious, critical or lethal cases. I end up with 504 of these in alle non Hubei cases. So better than Hubei (app 2500 in 13000, Just under 20%) but almost at 8% also for international cases).

Does this suggest that severity will be similar outside of Hubei when cases have the same length of disease symptoms ? OR let's say half the severity as long as healthcare is working ok ?

[Toaster2]

Great link.

I did some headcalculations based on # of serious, critical or lethal cases. I end up with 504 of these in alle non Hubei cases. So better than Hubei (app 2500 in 13000, Just under 20%) but almost at 8% also for international cases).

Does this suggest that severity will be similar outside of Hubei when cases have the same length of disease symptoms ? OR let's say half the severity as long as healthcare is working ok ?

Note added : none is listed as critical in the international cases, in Chinas other provinces many are

[sharon sanders]

I really like that a high school student is responsible for that site! Just a word of caution - not all of the provinces report daily. The National Health Commission reports at about 8 pm ET. Their numbers are comprehensive. So for about an hour the numbers on everyone's pages are correct but the further away from that time, they become more incorrect. For instance, at 3pm ET all of the lists are missing cases and deaths. Not until Hubei reports at about 5 pm ET can you start to get an idea of what the national numbers will look like.

But, buyer beware - China's numbers for the outbreak are not correct. At this point, even if they were attempting to be truthful, I think many cases are missed due to no diagnosis, human error, deaths of people who were not officially diagnosed etc. In short - we may never know the real numbers.

We have a case list here but it is out-of-date within an hour of when I update it.

[Commonground]

Underreported, Warns Hong Kong Academic

Published:
February 4, 2020 1:05 PM UTC
According to a professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, number of people affected by coronavirus likely far exceeds official numbers.
“The official tally in Wuhan could be ‘just the tip of the iceberg’ because it only reflected the acute cases where patients were admitted to hospital.”
https://www.ccn.com/coronavirus-infe...kong-academic/

[gsgs]

No one knows the cfr because no one knows the true number of cases. It is impossible to calculate.

... and many people are doing just that impossible thing. Some are even calculating pandemic probabilities which
were termed as impossible by others. Of course, these are just estimates, no math theorems.
But the "impossibility" is being used as an "escuse" by people who are reluctant to give estimates.

[c3jmp]

... pls move this, if it should be elsewhere... these are really good books...

'The Coming Pandemic Catastrophe', Dr. Grattan Woodson

'The Edge of Disaster', Dr Stephen Flynn

[Shiloh]

Source: https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/...officials-say/

High-profile report on asymptomatic spread of coronavirus based on faulty information, health officials say
By Helen Branswell
February 4, 2020

A high-profile scientific paper that found that a patient with the new coronavirus had transmitted it to other people in Germany before showing any symptoms was based on faulty information, health officials say...

[Shiloh]

Source: https://www.wired.com/story/amid-cor...source=twitter

02.04.2020 07:00 AM
Amid Coronavirus Fears, a Mask Shortage Could Spread Globally
Most of the world's supply of masks and respirators comes from China, and a supply chain gap poses a risk to everyday health care beyond the viral epidemic.

[curiosity]

Does anyone know where I might find a graph image of confirmed cases with corresponding reported deaths per Province in China?

[Ronan Kelly]

The actual numbers by province can be found here: https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia

[hawkeye]

Hyundai in South Korea stops all domestic production. This is a total of 7 out of 13 plants worldwide. The reason? Supply chain.

South Korea's largest automaker Hyundai Motor will suspend all domestic production this week because of a lack of parts due to the coronavirus outbreak in China, it said Tuesday.

https://www.business-standard.com/article/automobile/coronavirus-hyundai-stops-production-in-south-korea-over-shortage-of-parts-120020400851_1.html

[hawkeye]

United and American Airlines have suspended flights to Hong Kong