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Discussion thread II - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

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  • Discussion thread II - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

    Please see this link for the first Discussion thread:

    Asymptomatic transmission?

    Germany confirms human transmission of coronavirus

    Health authorities say a Bavarian man contracted the virus from a colleague visiting from China. It is believed to be the first case of human-to-human transmission in Europe.

    The colleague, a woman from Shanghai, "started to feel sick on the flight home on January 23," Andreas Zapf, head of the Bavarian State Office for Health and Food Safety, said at a press conference.
    Last week, the infected man, who works for the auto parts supplier Webasto in Starnberg, had attended a training session with the visiting Chinese colleague before she returned to China and began showing symptoms of the illness. The woman had recently been visited in Shanghai by her parents, who come from the area around Wuhan, where the new virus is believed to have originated.

    Her German colleague in Bavaria developed bronchitis-like symptoms over the weekend but recovered and felt well enough to go to work on Monday.

    This is a 33-year-old man working for an automotive supplier in Bavaria, in the south of Germany, who was infected in January by a colleague who came from China for a few days for training, said the health authorities. This Chinese employee stayed from January 19 to 22 in Germany and upon her return to her country "felt sick", said the director of the Bavarian Health Office, Dr. Andreas Zapf.
    Last edited by Ronan Kelly; January 29, 2020, 09:17 AM. Reason: fixed link
    "Safety and security don't just happen, they are the result of collective consensus and public investment. We owe our children, the most vulnerable citizens in our society, a life free of violence and fear."
    -Nelson Mandela

  • #2
    we need more threads. It's impracticable to read all the posts of this discussion thread when you are searching for something
    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
    my current links: ILI-charts:


    • #3
      anything about serology, antibodies , is mild infection enough to develope antibodies
      how many % of Wuhan people have antibodies
      can people get it twice
      the differences in virulence - could it be due to immunity from common-cold-coronavirus
      I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
      my current links: ILI-charts:


      • #4
        Originally posted by gsgs View Post
        we need more threads. It's impracticable to read all the posts of this discussion thread when you are searching for something
        I moved 3 posts to open this thread. Thanks!


        • #5
          Originally posted by sharon sanders View Post

          I moved 3 posts to open this thread. Thanks!
          hi Sharon, this is really a special situation now with the threatening pandemic. We went through some other threats,
          but this is bigger. Time to rethink the whole policy. Many newbies may arrive - as in 2009.
          I meant more threads, with different subject lines in different subforums, as it was in 2006.
          Also PMs would be nice.
          flutrackers was/is good with collecting news and articles,papers (tetano) but now we also need discussion (IMO)
          Best wishes, gsgs
          I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
          my current links: ILI-charts:


          • #6
            re, kiwibird,jjackson , why the big differences in severety of cases
            I remember that one interview of a survivor. It starts as a normal cold, only after 1 week fever
            and pneumonia symptoms set in. So, could this be some bacterial followup ?
            Well, they should have found it and reported by now. Antibiotics don't cure it.
            Maybe another virus/satellite/prion/ then, stimulated by the nCoV
            It can't be just random whether a case is severe ?!?
            The initial load hardly decides what happens a week later without showing something immediately.
            I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
            my current links: ILI-charts:


            • #7
              I'm wondering if this latest news about the evacuee plane diversion will make the public feel safer or more nervous.

              By Faith Karimi, CNN

              Updated 1:04 AM ET, Wed January 29, 2020

              "(CNN)A flight with about 210 Americans aboard will land at a military base in Southern California on Wednesday after leaving the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in China.
              The flight chartered by the State Department left Wuhan, and will stop to refuel in Anchorage, Alaska. From there, it will head to the March Air Reserve Base near Riverside, California, where it'll arrive early Wednesday.

              The flight was originally planned to land at the civilian Ontario International Airport -- about 35 miles from Los Angeles.
              It's not immediately clear why the itinerary was changed from the civilian airport to a military base. Curt Hagman, a San Bernardino County commissioner who is on the board of the Ontario airport, said they were informed Tuesday night that the plane will not land there...."

              Ask Congress to Investigate COVID Origins and Government Response to Pandemic H.R. 834

              i love myself. the quietest. simplest. most powerful. revolution ever. ---- nayyirah waheed

              (My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.)
              Never forget Excalibur.


              • #8
                Looking for comments on the topic of exponential growth of 2019-nCoV in the published data...will it continue? How can it be abated in this case with no vaccine or cure or treatment in sight? Will a travel ban help? How much? How much effect will the "lockdown" have? Is the genie already out of the bottle? Are we doomed? If the current infection and death rates continue it be a catastrophe the modern era has never known, and within a very, very short period of time, days and weeks.

                Some selected charts and quotes from recent Click image for larger version  Name:	ncovexp7.jpg Views:	0 Size:	56.7 KB ID:	825686Twitter posts:

                "Exponential growth of #coronavirus infections. In a lot of places. The diagram uses a logarithmic scale. This allows to compare the #growth rates of #infections in different locations."
                "This is a log graph of #coronavirus cases, blue are data, orange is projected. spread is exponential At this rate, a single case could infect everyone on earth within 5 months and kill 1 billion people."
                "#2019nCoV #coronavirus statistic trend 29/01/2020 update. Death rate continues to best fit a polynomial curve. Infection rate still best fits exponential growth curve. "

                "Following #nCov incidences - I hope the model breaks out of its exponential growth phase. Pretty consistent doubling of cases every 2 days"
                "#Coronavirus Coronavirus Infected Cases & Prediction. This model was highly accurate so far. We're in trouble guys. "

                "Latest Numbers from WHO show that in about 2 days we are expected to reach 10,000 cases. so far we haven't seen and deviation from the expected exponential climb upwards. #coronavirus #ncov2020 #nCoV19 truly chilling to think soon we may have a big problem on our hands ☹️"

                "The problem with #Coronavirus is mathematics. Most people don't understand exponential function over time. On current course, this time next month, well over 1 million stand to lose their lives because of this virus. #health #pandemic #wuhancomments "

                Click image for larger version  Name:	ncovexp8.jpg Views:	0 Size:	157.1 KB ID:	825687
                Click image for larger version  Name:	ncovexp3.jpg Views:	0 Size:	91.9 KB ID:	825690
                Click image for larger version  Name:	ncovexp5.jpg Views:	0 Size:	242.9 KB ID:	825691Click image for larger version  Name:	ncovexp6.jpg Views:	0 Size:	175.4 KB ID:	825692
                Attached Files


                • #9
                  > Hong Kong researchers have already developed a vaccine for the deadly Wuhan coronavirus
                  > – but need time to test it, according to infectious diseases expert Professor Yuen Kwok-yung.
                  > Yuen, chair of infectious diseases at the University of Hong Kong, revealed that his team
                  > was working on the vaccine and had isolated the previously unknown virus from the city’s first
                  > imported case.
                  > We have already produced the vaccine, but it will take a long time to test on animals,”
                  > Yuen said, without giving a specific time frame on when it would be ready for patients.

                  and without testing, it (how much ?) would already be available ? E.g. for volunteers from Wuhan ?

                  > But he said it would take months to test the vaccine on animals and at least another year
                  > to conduct clinical trials on humans before it was fit for use.

                  do hear some sigh or disappointment with current regulations here and an unspoken
                  suggestion to reduce the required testing regulations ?
                  I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                  my current links: ILI-charts:


                  • #10
                    masks :
                    WHO : Use a particulate respirator at least as protective as a NIOSH-certified N95,
                    EU FFP2 or equivalent 2,6 2=WHO,2014 ; 6=WHO,2008
                    our review identified a lack
                    of compelling evidence for the effectiveness of hand hygiene, respiratory etiquette and
                    face masks against influenza transmission in the community.

                    I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                    my current links: ILI-charts:


                    • kiwibird
                      kiwibird commented
                      Editing a comment
                      There has been a great video circulating about how to wear a mask -
                      From what I can gather what is not pointed out is that the surgical mask is more for the protection of those around you from your coughs and colds and that the N95 is more for protecting the wearer. I am sure the surgical mask will work to ensure that you become much more conscious of touching your face. In the video of Professor Gabriel Leung from HKU that I cannot seem to find - he and his colleagues were wearing surgical masks - so they are obviously of some real value - but he kept going to touch his glasses - to push them back a little - and you could see that he checked himself - probably because he was wearing the mask. They are a great physical cue to consciously change your behaviour and be more aware. If I didn't have an N95 I would certainly wear a surgical mask if I was out and about and at possible risk of infection.

                      I urge everyone to watch the video though. You do not want to go to the trouble of buying and wearing a mask only to touch the outside when you take it off and risk contamination. Video again -

                  • #11
                    Thus far, we (humans) have not succeeded in making a vaccine that works for the common cold, MERS or SARS all of which are different types of coronavirus. Testing must happen to determine that any test vaccine has efficacy. The basic steps of animal testing and cell line testing are needed to make sure the basic vaccine works to protect not exacerbate disease etc. it may be that in a crisis vaccine testing in humans happens in real time among volunteers, but the other steps have to happen first for good reason. Then comes manufacture - it may be easy or there may be difficulties. We dont know because we have never been able to make one before.

                    if we get this process wrong and e.g. there is a disaster (say a putative vaccine doesnt protect but causes higher levels of severe disease) then no -one will trust any future vaccine. I am sure there are short cuts that can and will be taken, but we have to listen to the experts here.


                    • #12

                      FredRoosevelt - We need some physics buffs here - but I would think it was good news that the red line has a little downward dip. With everyone being more vigilant and countries blocking mass movement - and whole cities - and their citizens - being incredibly brave and responsible in sheltering in place - it can only help to reduce that blue line too.

                      ?The only security we have is our ability to adapt."


                      • #13

                        vibrant62, in a situation like this things are different.
                        We must weight the risk of the vaccine against the risk of no vaccine.
                        If it makes things worse , then we'll stop it. Things going worse can happen all
                        the time in some locations of such a big spread.
                        If the probability of positivity of tests is so low, then how many vaccines may
                        we need for one success ? How can it be, that companies and CEPI are still
                        so optimistic ?

                        one year of testing against 16weeks of production is a misrelation here. Every week counts.

                        that we have not succeeded with a cold vaccine could be du to lack of funding, lack of
                        investment return. Who would buy it ? And which ? With 200 different cold going on
                        I'm interested in expert panflu damage estimates
                        my current links: ILI-charts:


                        • #14
                          gsgs - have you read this post?
                          ?The only security we have is our ability to adapt."


                          • #15

                            No figures for India in their list - but now this shows the UAE with a confirmed case.
                            The United Arab Emirates 1 0
                            They give a total of 1 but the actual article states that it is a family from Wuhan that is being treated.

                            From they provided this map which does show flights to UAE .
                            ?The only security we have is our ability to adapt."