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Discussion thread II - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

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  • sharon sanders
    replied
    This thread is closed.

    Please see the new discussion thread here:

    https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...ew-coronavirus

    Leave a comment:


  • sharon sanders
    replied
    Hi!

    I am asking all of our participants to get off the computer a few hours this weekend and please prepare for a potential pandemic. I know what you are doing....you are spending all of your free time here to warn people about what is happening world wide.

    You need to take some time for yourselves this weekend and be sure your family is ready just-in-case. You will be no good here if you are worried about things in your home.

    I know it is hard - but please do it.

    We do not know what is going to happen but prepare anyway for a two week quarantine. I know you know this already. Please do it.

    Here are our links on site so you do not have to look for them:

    https://www.ready.gov/pandemic

    https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...or-one-30-days


    -----------------------------------------

    As a comment - we do NOT endorse anything that the W.H.O. or US CDC does - but they do have some great resources to look at. Hey! we paid for these tools - use them.

    Don't let some of their questionable actions detract from some of their good tools, papers, etc.

    Leave a comment:


  • gsgs
    replied
    lots of sequences are available meanwhile. No significant mutations. Other than flu , Coronaviruses do proofreading

    Leave a comment:


  • Shiloh
    replied
    Source: https://www.ntdtv.com/gb/2020/02/21/a102782707.html

    CCP released new crown virus data last month, suspected to cover virus mutation
    Virus diagram. (Pixabay.com)
    Beijing Time: 2020-02-22 05:41
    FacebookTwitterEmailPrintFont Size

    [NTD Beijing, February 22, 2020] Since mid-January, Chinese medical institutions have published dozens of sequencing data of Wuhan New Crown Virus. However, since January 22, the eve of Wuhan's closure, the Chinese side has suddenly stopped publishing sequencing data to this day. Taiwan scholars said that there is a possibility of mutation of the virus, and non-public data will make the epidemic prevention work difficult.

    A few days ago, Mr. Wu Zhongyi of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Taiwan and Pu Muming, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences wrote in the "National Science Review" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences that as of February 10, a total of 55 new coronavirus genome data had been released worldwide. Among them, almost all 31 sequencing data before January 22 were from China, but 24 data after January 22 were from outside China.

    According to an article published by the Chinese Academy of Sciences under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the scientific community lacks data on newly isolated viruses in China, making it difficult to determine whether the virus has mutated.

    A Chinese scholar's paper on February 18 asserted that as of now, the full-length genomic sequences between virus samples are almost identical, showing that no significant mutations have occurred. However, the main reference of this paper is another Chinese scholar's paper in early February. In other words, this conclusion is based on lagging data.

    "Science in China" article pointed out that if it is not known whether the virus has mutated, what kind of mutation has occurred, and whether there are significant differences in the virus between domestic regions, it is difficult for front-line personnel to carry out epidemic prevention work accurately and in accordance with local conditions. To this new unknown epidemic is tantamount to going to the battlefield blindfolded.

    The article quoted Wu Zhongyi calling on China to open the release of virus data. He said: "At present, the new coronavirus may have reached its peak and will not evolve anymore; but it may also be ready to enter a dangerous period. Under the uncertainty of polarization, only public data can let scientists know what to do next. go."

    In the article, the reason why the Chinese institution stopped publishing the sequencing data is summarized as the "academic achievement dispute" in the Chinese medical community. However, this obviously does not explain why scientists across the country suddenly concealed data from a certain point in time.

    The time of January 22 mentioned in this article is special. Prior to this, on January 20th, high levels of the Chinese Communist Party publicly issued instructions on the outbreak. After that, on January 23, Beijing suddenly ordered Wuhan to close the city, and Hubei followed closely behind. It is widely believed that at that time Beijing had realized that the epidemic was out of control.

    In order to maintain stability, the CCP has been concealing the epidemic situation, including the data of confirmed cases, the number of deaths, the severity of the disease, the virus incubation period, and so on. It is the object of official cover. Therefore, it is naturally questionable whether the CCP concealed the sudden mutation of the virus.

    In fact, the epidemic situation in various places has shown many signs of suspected virus mutations, including the frequent occurrence of ultra-long incubation cases in various places, the accuracy of nucleic acid detection has dropped significantly, and the transmission channels have become increasingly diverse.

    As early as January 23, the day after China stopped publishing virus data, Radio Free Asia quoted a patient with "viral pneumonia" in the intensive care unit of Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital, saying that the virus he infected was not the officially announced "new corona Virus ", but the symptoms are equally dangerous. And, according to information revealed by his doctor, the hospital's top experts are aware that more than one virus has caused the outbreak.

    Wuhan new coronavirus and SARS coronavirus are the same species. Such viruses are susceptible to mutation during transmission, and the mutation speed is very fast, making epidemic prevention very difficult.

    (Reporter Zhong Jingming Comprehensive Reporting / Responsible Editor: Ming Xuan)

    Leave a comment:


  • sharon sanders
    replied

    FluTrackers.com
    @FluTrackers

    1m

    Hi!

    Guess what this weekend is?

    Top It Off Weekend.

    That's right. Finish those preps. Tell everyone you know.

    CDC: Community spread will be "likely" in the US.

    https://ready.gov/pandemic

    And don't forget your pets!

    https://cdc.gov/healthypets/emergencies/pet-disaster-prep-kit.html…


    #coronavirus #COVID19

    Leave a comment:


  • Shiloh
    commented on 's reply
    Wonder if they are finding people using such products to erase symptoms to evade quarantine...

  • Shiloh
    replied
    Qiqihar, Heilongjiang: Pharmacies suspend sales of anti-fever, cough and antiviral drugs during epidemic
    2020-02-22 00:40:11 China Quality News Network

    China Quality News Network News At present, the epidemic prevention and control is in a critical period. According to the Heilongjiang Provincial New Coronary Pneumonia Command "Notice on Implementing the Most Strict Management and Control Measures in Key Coronary Epidemic Areas in Our Province" ] No. 55) and the Heilongjiang Provincial Bureau of Drug Administration's "Notice on Strengthening the Drug Store's" Antipyretic, Antitussive and Antiviral "Drug Management and the Work of Epidemic Prevention and Control, and in accordance with local conditions, Qiqihar City has adopted a suspension of sales The practice of "viral" drugs, Qiqihar City Market Supervision Bureau specially reminded:

    I. "Antipyretic, antitussive and antiviral" drugs refer to drugs that include fever (antipyretic), cough (cough), antiviral, etc. in indications or functional indications, and drugs that treat fever, headache, nasal congestion, sneezing, cough, fatigue, etc. (Including chemical preparations, proprietary Chinese medicines).

    Twenty-two, pharmacy operators and purchasers must all wear protective equipment such as masks for temperature measurement.

    3. All retail pharmacies in the city must promptly remove the "antipyretic, antitussive and antiviral" medicines that have been suspended from sale, seal them in place, register them, and announce relevant suspension of regulations in a prominent location in the pharmacy to guide drug buyers in need to Appointed medical institutions.

    Qiqihar City Market Supervision Bureau requires market supervision departments at all levels to immediately go deep into the publicity of various pharmacies and supervise pharmacies to do a good job of removing drugs from the shelves, storing them, and registering them. Pharmacies that do not strictly implement the regulations shall be dealt with seriously according to law and regulations.

    供 (Contributed by Market Supervision Bureau of Qiqihar City, Heilongjiang Province)

    Leave a comment:


  • JJackson
    replied
    Today's WHO press conference had a number of questions relating to the reversion to lab conformation only in Wuhan and the upshot was lack of testing capacity in the epicenter which has now caught up to the point it can take back the role of testing all suspect cases.
    The more worrying problem is Iran which has reported a number of cases in different cities and two cases, in Lebanon and Canada, coming from Iran. The CFR is far higher than anywhere else and is very unlikely to be due to genetic change. A much more likely scenario is some level of sustained community transmission which has just reached the point it has been spotted, as the fish market cases in Wuhan did for China. Iran is a technologically developed country but has been under such severe sanctions pressure for so long it his not going to have China's very sophisticated centralised undiagnosed pneumonia detection capacity and is likely to pick up an outbreak at a much later point.

    Leave a comment:


  • Ronan Kelly
    replied
    Originally posted by Shiloh View Post
    This wrong practice was discovered and stopped in time on February 20. The number of cases reduced on February 19 is now added back to confirmed cases, and the number of new cases on that day is revised. At 04:00 on February 19, the number of newly confirmed cases in the province was revised from 349 to 775, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases was revised from 62,013 to 62,457. At the same time, the province's cumulative number of confirmed cases as of 24:00 on February 20 was revised from 62,662 to 63,088.
    Who's on first?

    With regard to facemasks, wouldn't even poorly fitting covers help to keep fingers out of mouths especially for kids? Anything that reduces entry reduces infection even if not by 100%.

    Leave a comment:


  • Shiloh
    replied
    Revised Hubei #s:

    Source: http://news.bandao.cn/a/347922.html
    Hubei revised case confirmed on the 19th: revised from 349 to 775
    2020-02-21 23:42 Hubei Health and Health Commission Reading (1367)
    Scan to phone

    According to the official website of the Hubei Health and Medical Commission, on the 21st, a statement on the revision of the confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia on February 19 was issued. The following is the full text:

    From February 13, according to the "New Coronavirus Pneumonia Diagnosis and Treatment Program (Trial Fifth Edition)" issued by the General Office of the National Health and Health Commission and the Office of the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Hubei Province will include all clinically diagnosed cases into the confirmed cases for statistics Announcement and treatment. On February 18, the General Office of the National Health and Health Commission and the Office of the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine issued the "New Coronary Virus Pneumonia Diagnosis and Treatment Plan (Trial Version 6)". Compared with the fifth version of the diagnosis and treatment plan, the original clinical diagnosis of Hubei The category was cancelled. On February 19, some cities and prefectures revised the previously reported clinically diagnosed cases in accordance with the sixth edition of the diagnosis and treatment plan, and reduced some confirmed cases. This wrong practice was discovered and stopped in time on February 20. The number of cases reduced on February 19 is now added back to confirmed cases, and the number of new cases on that day is revised. At 04:00 on February 19, the number of newly confirmed cases in the province was revised from 349 to 775, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases was revised from 62,013 to 62,457. At the same time, the province's cumulative number of confirmed cases as of 24:00 on February 20 was revised from 62,662 to 63,088.

    Leave a comment:


  • JJackson
    replied
    Originally posted by gsgs View Post
    JJackson,
    so the decline in the BDI from Jan19 to Jan23 had other reasons and was just
    coincidentally at the same time as the Wuhan-quarantaine ?!
    No, it will be due to China's shutdown and not needing the usual amounts of raw materials imports.

    Leave a comment:


  • gsgs
    replied
    JJackson,
    so the decline in the BDI from Jan19 to Jan23 had other reasons and was just
    coincidentally at the same time as the Wuhan-quarantaine ?!
    Doesn't seem suitable then to be used as a pandemic prediction
    or pandemic-fear-prediction.

    Leave a comment:


  • JJackson
    commented on 's reply
    The BDI does not include oil, it measures dry bulk goods like coal, grain, cement, metal ores etc. True the 2008 financial crash was not due to disease but it caused a economic down turn causing a crash in the price charged per unit for dry goods transport from $11,000 to 1,000 in a few months. Stock prices are based on market sentiment and speculation but the BDI measures real time demand for bulk goods movement. China produces most of the worlds manufactured goods and is the destination for much of the long distance bulk materials transport, if they shut down factories then the BDI will crash as it is very sensitive to fairly small changes for the reasons I explain in https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...ndemic-and-bdi
    The Wikipedia page has a graph showing the BDI over the 2009 crash and explains how it is calculated in greater detail. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index
    The Baltic Exchange will have the broken down route data - S America & Australia to China for iron ore & coal being the best indicators - but you have to pay to access it.
    If I was looking at stocks I would expect things like Airbnb and Uber to take a hit and food home delivery companies to do well.
    The NYSE composite fell from 9,400 at the end of May 2008 to 4,300 by the beginning of March 2009.

  • Shiloh
    replied
    Hopefully, they are cremating the dead in Iran, which is NOT the funeral tradition. Normally, the body is washed with soap and water, the family attending. Then there is a procession to the burial site and a gathering after burial: https://www.frazerconsultants.com/20...al-traditions/

    Leave a comment:


  • kiwibird
    commented on 's reply
    "@HeshmatAlavi Replying to @HeshmatAlavi and @BaxtiyarGoran
    #UPDATE
    #Iran #COVID19
    Two coronavirus deaths reported in Rasht, northern Iran
    -Javid Gholamzadeh & Dr. Reza Kuchakinia

    One death also reported in Ilan, western Iran

    Regime authorities are forbidding hospital staff & family members from talking to the media."
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