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Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

25% were the UK-variant B117 they said some days ago
(updated from 10% some more days ago)
that;s not the reason for the surge.
It's unusual. Redoubles every 2 days
https://twitter.com/RiochtConor2/status/1346902943807713286

some said it was because of changes in testing or backlog,
but hospitalizations are also up
https://en.wikipedia.org/api/rest_v.../082228d9929a9d649e3f6695e1ea2dafd914e008.png

Yet they don't seem to realise that this is unusual. I haven't seen any investigation
or speculation or concern.

Could it be another mutated strain that makes it contagious as measles
Could it be another disease
Could it be a combination of SARS2 and seasonal Corona
Could it be more symptomatic now

----------------------------------------------
In hindsight, how wise was it to empty and fill the hospitals with 1500 patients in 6 days ? @sarahcareyIRL
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EqqP8OKWMAAjpwu?format=png&name=medium
--------------------------------------------

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/pages/detailed-profile-of-cases
(that site tends to load slowly , crash my browser )
--------------------------------------
 
I just learned that a friend, (82, male) who had COVID-19 in August, died three days ago. He was released from the hospital in September but never fully recovered. I have no idea if his death is officially listed as coronavirus or not. I am guessing not since the initial infection was four months ago. This is an example of a COVID-19 related death that will probably never be counted. So when people say that the death count is overstated due to errors and bad judgement, do not forget about the related deaths a few weeks or months later.

Again, so sorry for what everyone is going through.

Take care.
 
My condolences to you and his family.
In my past, I have done years of medical ICD coding for diagnostic and procedural reporting for healthcare providers for statistics and billing purposes. There is one primary code for the cause of death. Additional codes can and should be added to the primary code, for example: history of coronavirus, diabetes... or if primary diagnostic code was a fracture, a secondary code should be added if the fracture occurred as a result of a fall, vehicle collision, skateboard accident, etc.
I am assuming only the primary diagnoses are being counted for number of coronavirus cases.
The CDC has (finally) added additional codes for coronavirus that went into effect on January 01.2021. One additional code is 'history of...".

New ICD-10-CM code for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)
December 3, 2020 Effective: January 1, 2021
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/icd/Announcement-New-ICD-code-for-coronavirus-19-508.pdf
 
Just looked at the tweet that gsgs referenced and looked at the Ireland numbers :https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ErFIhkdXUAAWSeX?format=jpg&name=large

We have something similar going on in our county. We had 0-2 daily cases for months and then boom this week it has been 20, 50, 80 and then testing and the hospital broke down. Not sure what is going on because we are suddenly the hot spot and no other surrounding counties have seen the same spike.
 
Hello gsgs. It looks like Ireland is dealing with the new UK variant surge juiced up by the Christmas/New Years holiday. The United Kingdom initiated lockdowns and controls before Christmas that Ireland did not do. Here is a an article which seems to state support that thought.
--------------------------------------------------------
Ireland tightens lockdown as COVID-19 'tsunami' threatens hospitals
By Conor Humphries, Graham Fahy

DUBLIN (Reuters) - Ireland announced its strictest lockdown measures since early last year on Wednesday as a “tsunami” of infections caused by a new COVID-19 variant pushed hospitalisations to a record high and sparked fears the healthcare system could be overwhelmed.

Ireland’s 14-day infection rate has quadrupled in the past 10 days to 819 cases per 100,000, fueled by a new more transmissible COVID-19 variant first identified in Britain and the relaxation of restrictions ahead of Christmas.

<snip>

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...sunami-threatens-hospitals-idUSKBN29B28Z?il=0
-------------------------------------------------------

Goes a ways to illustrate what can happen with and without controls.
 
we do check deaaths from all causes, so we have a good estimate of the COVID-related deaths.
On US-death certificates they often give "multiple causes" and if there was a previous COVID-infection
I think it would likely appear as one of the causes , if not the primary-cause.
Causes are encoded by the ICD10-list and all anonymized US-death certicates can be downloaded,
last available is 2017. They are also searchable at CDC-wonder . But you must not try to identify persons from it.
 
As the medical worlds rush into vaccinations, I have a little legal question:

Is it not a professional fault to offer a vaccination without having corrected the lack of vitamin D before or during the pre-vaccination visit ?
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55574662

Two more life-saving drugs have been found that can cut deaths by a quarter in patients who are sickest with Covid.

The anti-inflammatory medications, given via a drip, save an extra life for every 12 treated, say researchers who have carried out a trial in NHS intensive care units.

Supplies are already available across the UK so they can be used immediately to save hundreds of lives, say experts.

There are over 30,000 Covid patients in UK hospitals - 39% more than in April.

The UK government is working closely with the manufacturer, to ensure the drugs - tocilizumab and sarilumab - continue to be available to UK patients.

As well as saving more lives, the treatments speed up patients' recovery and reduce the length of time that critically-ill patients need to spend in intensive care by about a week.

Both appear to work equally well and add to the benefit already found with a cheap steroid drug called dexamethasone.
Click to expand...
 
gsgs To me, it looks like they stopped doing elective surgeries over Christmas and then started up again afterwards. I hope that's all it is.
 
I’m sorry about the loss of your friend, Sharon. It’s possible some elderly deaths are undercounted. At least I doubt hospitals are over-counting COVID deaths. I heard a hospice nurse on the radio say that while hospitals may be getting subsidies for treating COVID cases, they do not want deaths in the hospital. That is a bad quality metric for them, whatever the cause of death may be. She believed that hospitals were prematurely discharging patients to go home or to hospice to avoid deaths counting against them. She was upset about that and questioned the sincerity of politicians’ claims that they were trying to protect the elderly with restrictions.
Washington State miscounted a handful of deaths as COVID deaths but apologized and stopped that. It wasn’t statistically significant at that point.
 
relased from hospital over Christmas ,
that cannot be the whole reason, see : http://magictour.free.fr/irel0107.pdf , page 10
B117 was reported at 9%,13%,25% in weeks 51,52,53 , but maybe this was the
PCR-date some week(s) later ?

Ireland links :
https://www.gov.ie/en/news/7e0924-l...latest-news-as-of-715pm-on-thursday-7-january
https://www.gov.ie/en/collection/4b505-slides-from-the-nphet-press-briefings/
Jan07 : http://magictour.free.fr/irel0107.pdf
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory...vid-19inireland/COVID19 Daily infographic.pdf
@conor (what was it)
 
Op-Ed: Don't Let COVID-19 Patients Die With Vitamin D Deficiency
— We can't wait for perfect evidence
by Richard H. Carmona, MD, MPH, Vatsal G. Thakkar, MD, and John C. Umhau, MD, MPH January 5, 2021

The U.S. is breaking new records in the number of daily deaths from COVID-19. The breakneck speed with which several vaccines have been developed and deployed is nothing short of breathtaking. Yet we still have to confront the grim prediction that our national death toll will exceed 500,000 Americans before widespread vaccinations can dig us out of this crisis. The response to the pandemic, therefore, should include an effort to aggressively eliminate what is becoming apparent as a morbidity and mortality risk factor in COVID-19 -- vitamin D deficiency...

Read more: https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/90530
 
well, they didn't think it's "all" just a backlog. I misinterpreted.
Still there is surprisingly little concern about that unusually big and fast increase.
I don't know why. Is it B117 ? They don't seem interested.
Is it unusually fast ? Doesn't matter, but we must lockdown.
{someone should call WHO)
 
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