OK - This is an uncomfortable discussion, but one that needs to be had.
Today I came across this article about Manaus in Brazil.
Covid-19: Brazil hospitals 'run out of oxygen' for virus patients
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-55670318
Now, as many of you may remember, Manaus was a major 'epicentre' for Covid back in March / April 2020. Manaus is a city with a population of @1m in a highly isolated area within the Amazon. Subsequent serology testing showed an estimated 76% of the population of this city had been infected during this first 'wave', so, if herd immunity existed anywhere on the planet, it was most likely here. Now whilst it is possible or even likely that this new outbreak is down to the new 'Brazil' mutated variant, it also shows that it is very likely that herd immunity is not an achievable goal. We would need a universal Covid vaccine, and that is at minimum, a few years away - if not longer. Scientists have been working on one of these for influenza for @ 2 decades now..
In one form or the other Covid is here to stay, and based on the above information, it is highly probable that annual vaccination is going to be required...
See https://www.the-scientist.com/news-o...rs-cov-2-68272
Given that with major efforts and a halt to economies with lockdowns it is going to take until 2022 at least (and in other countries with more limited supplies, even longer) to vaccinate everyone, then it isn't going to practical for entire national strategies to rest solely on vaccination. Vaccinating annually on this scale just isn't possible, and unless it is simultaneously done around the globe, all we will do is keep generating vaccine escape variants. We dont yet have data on how many of these hospital cases are re-infections, whether these are the same, less severe or more severe... but if hospitals are overwhelmed again, it doesn't look so good.
Also not yet factored in is the huge burden and potentially huge numbers of years of life lost that Long Covid is going to cause - it may dwarf mortality rates. The data is now pretty clear that lung damage from infections (and not just severe ones) is extensive, the numbers of people with major kidney damage etc etc is enormous. The burden to national health systems is... well, its too early to give estimates, but most certainly will be massively impactful.
Therefore, in view of all of this, it suggests to me that the longer term strategy has to evolve towards other arms of prevention in association with vaccination - nations need to be promoting self help, actively encouraging people to look after their immune system health by all means available (exercise, sleep, supplements especially zinc and vitamin D) as the data seems to point to an effective and early innate immune response limiting infection severity, and the pharmaceutical industries focus now needs to turn to early low cost intervention for mass annual usage - things that can stop the infection early, and in its tracks. We dont know enough as yet about SARS-Cov-2 virus to predict potential future mutations as we do for selecting flu strains for jabs, and vaccines are always going to be playing 'catch up'. We dont understand enough about cross immunity (or a lack thereof) to pin all our hopes that vaccination against strain A might help to limit the severity of a strain that evades the vaccine *especially* when these are limited to spike protein.
We need a rethink IMHO.
Today I came across this article about Manaus in Brazil.
Covid-19: Brazil hospitals 'run out of oxygen' for virus patients
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-55670318
Now, as many of you may remember, Manaus was a major 'epicentre' for Covid back in March / April 2020. Manaus is a city with a population of @1m in a highly isolated area within the Amazon. Subsequent serology testing showed an estimated 76% of the population of this city had been infected during this first 'wave', so, if herd immunity existed anywhere on the planet, it was most likely here. Now whilst it is possible or even likely that this new outbreak is down to the new 'Brazil' mutated variant, it also shows that it is very likely that herd immunity is not an achievable goal. We would need a universal Covid vaccine, and that is at minimum, a few years away - if not longer. Scientists have been working on one of these for influenza for @ 2 decades now..
In one form or the other Covid is here to stay, and based on the above information, it is highly probable that annual vaccination is going to be required...
See https://www.the-scientist.com/news-o...rs-cov-2-68272
Given that with major efforts and a halt to economies with lockdowns it is going to take until 2022 at least (and in other countries with more limited supplies, even longer) to vaccinate everyone, then it isn't going to practical for entire national strategies to rest solely on vaccination. Vaccinating annually on this scale just isn't possible, and unless it is simultaneously done around the globe, all we will do is keep generating vaccine escape variants. We dont yet have data on how many of these hospital cases are re-infections, whether these are the same, less severe or more severe... but if hospitals are overwhelmed again, it doesn't look so good.
Also not yet factored in is the huge burden and potentially huge numbers of years of life lost that Long Covid is going to cause - it may dwarf mortality rates. The data is now pretty clear that lung damage from infections (and not just severe ones) is extensive, the numbers of people with major kidney damage etc etc is enormous. The burden to national health systems is... well, its too early to give estimates, but most certainly will be massively impactful.
Therefore, in view of all of this, it suggests to me that the longer term strategy has to evolve towards other arms of prevention in association with vaccination - nations need to be promoting self help, actively encouraging people to look after their immune system health by all means available (exercise, sleep, supplements especially zinc and vitamin D) as the data seems to point to an effective and early innate immune response limiting infection severity, and the pharmaceutical industries focus now needs to turn to early low cost intervention for mass annual usage - things that can stop the infection early, and in its tracks. We dont know enough as yet about SARS-Cov-2 virus to predict potential future mutations as we do for selecting flu strains for jabs, and vaccines are always going to be playing 'catch up'. We dont understand enough about cross immunity (or a lack thereof) to pin all our hopes that vaccination against strain A might help to limit the severity of a strain that evades the vaccine *especially* when these are limited to spike protein.
We need a rethink IMHO.
