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Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

US Medicare will only pay for vitamin D screening in very limited circumstances. Setting seniors up to die of respiratory illness clears the roles more quickly than paying for years of chronic illness.
 
Pay now or pay later.

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/944042
...
"It's crazy," Lynnette Brammer, who leads the Domestic Influenza Surveillance team at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told the Post. "This is my 30th flu season. I never would have expected to see flu activity this low."

Influenza A, influenza B, parainfluenza, norovirus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), human metapneumovirus, and the bacteria that cause whooping cough and pneumonia are circulating at near record low levels.
...
But there's a possible downside to this suppression of viruses, because flu and other viruses may rebound once the coronavirus is brought under control.

"The best analogy is to a forest fire," Bryan Grenfell, an epidemiologist and population biologist at Princeton, told The Post. "For the fire to spread, it needs to have unburned wood. For epidemics to spread, they require people who haven't previously been infected. So if people don't get infected this year by these viruses, they likely will at some point later on."
 
This question I spotted: what do you think?

There is the real possibility that vaccinees will become hosts for virulent mutations that would not have had a chance with natural immunity. They become potential super spreaders?
 
in animals to avoid this there are vaccination rules. In the case of humans, what is observed is mind boggling.

I want a sub-question:

the vaccination of humans in a situation of non-homeostasis with regard to the known, example vitamin D, could it induce carriers in the long or very long term?

This question is asked when we know that the chance of seeing variants appearing increases with the duration of carriage.
 
Its a real concern for me at least. So far we have seen novel variants with multiple mutation (up to 22) in the UK, Brazil, South Africa, Japan and now Russia - almost all of which have (most likely) emerged in immunocompromised individuals as individual cases have been closely documented. What this tells us is that the SARS-Cov-2 virus, whilst well adapted to humans, is not yet perfectly adapted. In most normal individuals, the body's immune response kicks in to generate additional antibody responses after infection (even after a vaccination). In immunocompromised individuals, the immune response is absent or insufficient to defeat the infection, leading to long term infection, which in turn gives the virus an extended period of time to mutate and adapt to human physiology. In several well documented cases, individuals given antibody therapy, (whether monoclonals or convalescent plasma) it has been observed that the virus has evolved away from the neutralising antibodies. Fortunately these cases have been tightly contained within hospitals, but it is nearly certain that similar evolutions will be happening in people who never get sick enough to be hospitalised, and could be out there spreading a virus that has evolved away from its initial code to evade the neutralising antibody that is currently generated by vaccination.

It is almost certain that this is how these novel variants that are now spreading around the world were generated; in the case of B117, researchers are fairly sure they have tracked its emergence back to a patient zero who lived in Essex.

Now. For the most part, we are talking about individuals on chemotherapy or other immunosuppressive drugs here, but what we dont know is what happens in the elderly who have advanced immuno-senescence. If they are given a single dose of a vaccine, and are unable to mount a strong enough immune response to quickly eliminate the virus (should they become infected), then logically a similar situation could be arising within these hosts if they have an infection prior to their second dose. We dont know for sure one way or the other, because AFAIK there are no studies that are taking a look at this, or have already done so. In the case of the AZ vaccine we are talking about a difference in antibody titres of @8000 after shot 1 rising to 64,000 after shot 2, so there is a very large difference in the strength of the immune response. It may be that a 'live' infection acts in the same way as a second dose in the vast majority of cases, but it may be that at least *some* elderly individuals will become chronically infected.. If the latter (logically) surely it must drive the viruses evolution? So - for the elderly, surely we should be suggesting shielding for the gap between shot 1 and shot 2, and perhaps some supplementation with e.g. Zinc and Vitamin D to get their immune system in good shape, prior to and post vaccination to ensure that their immune response is adequate? Or making sure that they get their second jab in very short order as per the science and company recommendations? Then when they are later challenged with live virus there is a greater chance that they will be able to eliminate the virus swiftly, and not give it a chance for further evolution.
 
I am sorry to hear about your friend. The data is now incontrovertible in that covid infection causes long term damage to the heart, lungs, kidneys and other organs; deaths a few months after discharge from a severe infection seem to be quite common. Only time will tell how many years of life lost a covid infection causes in some people, both young and old. We have to remember we are all in uncharted territory here, and this infection has only been with us for @10m outside of China. We wont know the true severity of its impacts for a few years yet; as Long Covid is now recognised, scientists are at least looking at its sequelae and trying to understand the what and they why so that treatments can be developed - the immediate mortalities may only be the tip of the iceberg.
 
Before the accidental release of an H3N2 from a lab during an H1N1 flu season, it used to be the world only had to deal with ONE flu A each season rather than two variants, as there was some sort of mechanism at play that prevented more than one viral variant circulating in a flu season. Now we have two as standard co-circulating, with one more dominant than the other, depending on region.

Although social distancing and hygiene measures may account for the almost absent flu season (globally), I do wonder if there is a similar sort of interplay between SARS-Cov-2 and influenza? i.e one is naturally limiting the spread of the other?
 
you mean 1976's H1N1 during H3N2-season ?
I see no such "mechanism" , we had multiple flu-As before
 
> in the case of B117, researchers are fairly sure they have tracked its emergence back to a
> patient zero who lived in Essex.

source ? first time I hear this
 
Gert
The wording of the question is odd and makes me wonder if the person who said it knows much about the subject. Vaccines cannot become host for anything including mutations. If we assume they meant vaccinated individuals are more likely to generate virulent mutations than those naturally infected then why would/could this happen? The difference between the two lies in the challenge mechanism and here the vaccine technology in question needs to be specified. Some are full spike, some spike RBM only and others whole inactivated. The whole inactivated should create a very similar response to natural infection in that all parts of the packaged virion are capable of priming immune cells what it cannot mimic is the proteins produced in the cell for innate response suppression which are not packaged in the capsid (non-structural and accessory proteins which account for most of the genome) or the relative proportions of the proteins generated by viral mRNA transcription. The other vaccines focus on Spike, or the RBD specifically, and will only generate antibodies to their antigenic sites and T and B cells able to react with peptides from that protein. While these are only a small subset of the antibodies produced in a natural infection they are chosen as the most likely to generate steralising immunity.

How would this effect mutations and virulence? If the antibodies, and immune cells, have been primed to target an important antigenic site (e.g. the receptor binding domain) then random mutations occurring at that point, which would reduce viral binding affinity, would be selected against but if it also stopped antibody binding then it may still be advantageous to the virus, on balance, and increase the variant against the wild type causing vaccine escape. However this has little, if anything, to do with increasing virulence and is just as likely to reduce virulence and make the virus less fit. The virus probably had found a near optimum configuration while the change would only be helpful in the vaccinated with lots of antibodies targeting the specific spike coded for in the vaccine in naive individuals it would probably be out performed. Vaccine generated viral drift was seen in China's influenza poultry population where the genomic distribution of HA made a nice bell curve prior to mass vaccination. Once the vaccine, which targeted the peak of the bell curve, had been in use for a while the Dromedary single hump became a more Bactrian bi-hump with the peak depressed and the two new peaks taking over as the wild type strains. gs can probably supply more of the details but I seem to remember one of the humps went on to be the Fujian strain.

Vibrant asks a couple of questions towards the end of her post.

Making sure everyone, and particularly in high risk groups, are not mineral or vitamin deficient should be standard practice.

As pointed out the first jab produces a response and the second takes that response and greatly increases it. The recommended timing of the booster shot is based on the waning of the effector cell response from the first shot aiming to boost B plasma cell production some of which will, hopefully, become long lived memory B cells ready to mass-produce well targeted IgG on re-challenge. The second dose timing is set as early as possible so maximum immunity can be achieved quickly but the decay curve of the immune response to the first shot is fairly slow and there is normally still plenty to boost if given a month or more later than scheduled, which is the UK reasoning behind delaying the second shot while getting the first dose into more arms. This makes sense as long as the second dose is not delayed too long and you are short of vaccine or staff to administer it.
I looked a little at the prime-boost mechanism from an immunological view in this comment to a question of curiosity’s about giving just one shot. https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...-covid-19-new-coronavirus?p=902464#post902464
 
I do not remember the bi-hump and Fujian was not vaccine related afair.
The vaccine escapes that I remember were 2 strangely mutated
H5N1 strains , one in China, one in Egypt. I may find it in my H5N1-index file
The Chinese one must have been : >Index_W(Shanxi/2/2006) with 36 amino-acid differences
to the normal H5s in HA. there were several viruses from that clade.
And I think it was the reason that vaccination was forbidden then.
At least for that one vaccine.
 
Some experts addressed in-host mutations in the case of poor immunity induced by vaccines (dosing schedule in this case).

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1...sts-warning-second-dose-new-variant-mutations
Professor Herb Sewell, emeritus professor of immunology and consultant immunologist at Nottingham University, said abandoning the recommended 21-day gap was “madness".

He told the Sunday Times: "Even if the risk is small, the potential consequences are catastrophic. For example, a mutation that is not treated by the current vaccines impacting the population — the UK and the wider world.”
Professor Paul Bieniasz, a virologist at Rockefeller University in New York, also warned delaying the jab could have unintended consequences and had the potential to create “a large population of susceptible hosts with partial immunity”.

He said this could see people waiting for a second dose get infected and fend off the virus more slowly.

The danger was that people might avoid serious illness, but the virus would have time to mutate to evade their antibodies.

This new vaccine-resistant strain could then wreak havoc and make it difficult for the pandemic to ease.
 
Be careful about sinus symptoms.

https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/h...ction/63-b9a458ce-e08b-48da-9322-5bd9a688445d
Family says Francis Howell school bus driver who died from COVID-19 was told He had sinus infection

Doug Broste died a week later, the same day he was transported to ER and admitted to ICU
...

Hollowood was asked if she is concerned that her brother may have been around children on the school bus while he had COVID-19.

“The symptoms hit him Monday, Jan. 5,” she said. “So, I hope not. He was one who was very serious about being cautious, because he was caring for my mom, who is high-risk. As a result, he always wore a mask. He always stayed at a distance. He always washed his hands. He told me the first two rows of the bus are empty.”

Francis Howell School District officials say no close contacts were identified as part of the district’s contact tracing process.
 
gigs - I cannot find the specific article I had in mind when writing my comment, but these two links provide additional information on B117 origins that should go some way to giving you more information... I think the original source (for me) was a clinical paper, and will post link when I find it again.

In the meantime...

Phylogenetic analyses shows SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 originated in the UK
https://www.news-medical.net/news/2...-CoV-2-variant-B117-originated-in-the-UK.aspx

and

What do we know about the two new Covid-19 variants in the UK?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...about-the-two-new-covid-19-variants-in-the-uk
 
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