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Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

New Coronavirus Strain In UK Is Likely Already In US, Fauci Says

"When we start to look for it, we're going to find it," Dr. Anthony Fauci said during an interview with PBS NewsHour.

By Nikki Gaskins

Dec 22, 2020 11:27 am ET | Updated Dec 22, 2020 12:03 pm ET

"When you see something that is pretty prevalent in a place like the U.K. — there are also mutations that we're seeing in South Africa — and given the travel throughout the world, I would not be surprised if it is already here," Fauci said during the interview. "When we start to look for it, we're going to find it."

https://patch.com/us/across-america/new-coronavirus-strain-uk-likely-us-dr-anthony-fauci-says
 
In my opinion, the new variants of Covid-19 from the U.K. and South Africa has most likely already been dispersed around the world, or soon will be. Both are more transmissible that the current versions. Take a look at a couple of GIS products showing the interconnectedness of the world through air flight:

Follow this link and click View Live Map
https://www.esri.com/en-us/maps-we-l...al-air-traffic

Follow this link and see it in Scene Viewer
https://www.arcgis.com/home/webscene...ec356b84fee879

We understand that there are a lot of flights around the world. But sometimes a good visual helps reinforce that understanding.
 
https://www1.nyc.gov/office-of-the-...ript-mayor-de-blasio-holds-media-availability
Transcript: Mayor de Blasio Holds Media Availability
December 23, 2020
...
Commissioner Chokshi: Thank you, Mr. Mayor, and I echo your gratitude with respect to respecting the confidentiality of our fellow New Yorkers. So, for those who may not be as aware, let me just start with the big picture, which is that we have administered over 30,000 COVID-19 vaccinations in New York City. In recent days we did receive a single report of a serious adverse event in a health care worker. That was a significant allergic reaction that that person sustained. They were treated for it. They're now in stable condition and recovering. And what I would say about this with respect to the context is that vaccines, including the COVID 19 vaccine, are very safe in general. They do have side effects and occasionally those side effects include some uncommon allergic reactions.
 
Genetics experts worry coronavirus vaccines might not work quite as well against UK variant
By Elizabeth Cohen, CNN Senior Medical Correspondent
Updated 10:28 PM ET, Wed December 23, 2020

(CNN)Michael Worobey, a biologist at the University of Arizona, has seen more than 100,000 different strains of the virus that causes Covid-19. But when he saw the new variant from the UK, he noticed something different.

"This is the first variant I've seen during the whole pandemic where I took a step back and said: 'Whoa,' " he remembers.
Health officials have downplayed the possibility that the coronavirus vaccines won't work against the UK strain, but Worobey and other scientists thinks it's a possibility -- and it's just a possibility -- that this new variant might, to a small extent, outsmart the vaccines.

<snip>

https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/23/healt...-19/index.html
 
(I posted this in the South Africa thread, but reposting it here because I think it needful.)
-------------------------------------

‘New wave’ Covid-19 curbs loom as hospitals fill up, oxygen is rationed

27 December 2020 - 00:05BY CLAIRE KEETON

Tougher restrictions could be imposed nationwide when the National Coronavirus Command Council meets this week to discuss a Covid-19 resurgence, partly driven by a highly transmissible mutation of the virus.

<snip>

Dr Andrea Mendelsohn, a senior Western Cape medical officer, wrote in an open letter to Cape Town this week: "Once the beds are full and oxygen used up - we are rapidly approaching that point - then my hospital and so many others will not be able to help. They will be clearing stations for corpses. This is my nightmare and yours.

"If hypoxic patients - where there's a lack of oxygen in the blood - are put on a waiting list for high-flow nasal oxygen, they are in all likelihood waiting to die, she wrote, appealing to people to wear masks, practise social distancing and socialise outdoors.

Dr Katrin St?ve, a senior internal medicine specialist at Helderberg Hospital in Somerset West, said people were "a lot sicker this time, with patients between 30 and 50, with no comorbidities, more critical and succumbing to the disease". She added: "In our hospital we have a small oxygen tank that used to be filled once a week, but now it gets filled every day."

<snip>

https://www.timeslive.co.za/sunday-t...n-is-rationed/

(Okieman Comment: I suggest taking the time to read this article. I have bolded and put in red some of the text I found to be most important. It is one that is hard to read but I believe the world needs to look at this variant very closely. Most of the media is giving lots of attention to the UK variant, and understandably so, but this variant may be significantly more dangerous.)
 
Okieman said:
(I posted this in the South Africa thread, but reposting it here because I think it needful.)
-------------------------------------

‘New wave’ Covid-19 curbs loom as hospitals fill up, oxygen is rationed

27 December 2020 - 00:05BY CLAIRE KEETON

Tougher restrictions could be imposed nationwide when the National Coronavirus Command Council meets this week to discuss a Covid-19 resurgence, partly driven by a highly transmissible mutation of the virus.

<snip>

Dr Andrea Mendelsohn, a senior Western Cape medical officer, wrote in an open letter to Cape Town this week: "Once the beds are full and oxygen used up - we are rapidly approaching that point - then my hospital and so many others will not be able to help. They will be clearing stations for corpses. This is my nightmare and yours.

"If hypoxic patients - where there's a lack of oxygen in the blood - are put on a waiting list for high-flow nasal oxygen, they are in all likelihood waiting to die, she wrote, appealing to people to wear masks, practise social distancing and socialise outdoors.

Dr Katrin St?ve, a senior internal medicine specialist at Helderberg Hospital in Somerset West, said people were "a lot sicker this time, with patients between 30 and 50, with no comorbidities, more critical and succumbing to the disease". She added: "In our hospital we have a small oxygen tank that used to be filled once a week, but now it gets filled every day."

<snip>

https://www.timeslive.co.za/sunday-t...n-is-rationed/

(Okieman Comment: I suggest taking the time to read this article. I have bolded and put in red some of the text I found to be most important. It is one that is hard to read but I believe the world needs to look at this variant very closely. Most of the media is giving lots of attention to the UK variant, and understandably so, but this variant may be significantly more dangerous.)
Click to expand...

Thanks Okieman.

For me...I want to know how we are supposed to act in regard to these possibly increased transmissibility variants....?

Do we stand 10 feet apart instead of 6? Do we double the masks? i.e. wear two on top of each other? Do we insert a filter into the homemade masks? What?!

It seems the new variants are not quantified in terms of self protection.

Surgical masks and homemade masks are in the "better than nothing" category. How do these protect against a higher transmission variant? What modifications do they need?

If I sound frustrated it is because I am.

As I said before, it is a travesty that in the US - the "richest" country in the world - that the entire population does not have access to free N95 masks. I am at high risk. I should be getting a call every few weeks asking me if I need a delivery of food basics...new N95 masks...a general check of my status. In fact, I struggle to get a lot of basics. I have to check everyday if my grocery store, WalMart, Amazon delivery services have things I need. Sometimes things are in the stores but I have to go there to get them. When the WalMart warehouse runs low they do not deliver. Does it make sense for me, a high risk person, to go into a large WalMart or busy Publix to find the few scarce items I need? Expose myself to possibly hundreds of people? So...I just try to order a few things...I settle for whatever I can get. Every delivery is a mystery box.

I am in Florida which is a totally open state. I take responsibility for my own safety. As I said at the beginning of this pandemic - do not depend on the government to help you. I learned this from hurricane response. Too little, too late....every time.

Take care of yourselves.

We are with you.

Rant over.
 
Sharon, I too have been wondering what can be done when these new more transmissible variants become more widespread. And I strongly believe they will. I expect the messaging about wearing masks and social distancing will be ramped up, but I not expect anything really different until the hospitals are totally overwhelmed. And then of course it is too late. I just think it is a wicked problem becoming more wicked. (For those unfamiliar with the term "wicked problem" check it out on Wikipedia.) I think not much will be changed until the hospitals are covered up, and then we will have lockdowns of one form or the other instituted. I am not sure there is much else many governments can do. At this point in the pandemic there is so much fatigue and financial hurt that this alone will have a huge psychological effect upon people. I am preparing my mind for what is coming. Or at least trying to.

Where I live we are able to put in on-line orders at Walmart and have curbside pickup. We have not gone into the store in months. I am surprised that is not available in Florida! One thing which has changed over the past couple of weeks is that while not long ago you could put in your order and pick it up the next day, that has changed to a wait of several days before pickup is available. Our interpretation is that a lot more people are using the on-line ordering and curbside pickup.

I am amazed that PPE availability is still an issue for health care providers and hospitals, not to mention just regular folks. I expect that we are going to see a Christmas/New Year surge over the next couple of weeks. And then we will see another much worse surge due to the spreading of the UK and South Africa variants in February. This is just a guestimation on my part. I have no special knowledge. Hopefully I am wrong. But if I am even close to right then I have to wonder if the PPE we have available will last. And can our healthcare works endure? Hopefully so, for their sake and ours.

People have been saying how they will be so glad when 2020 is over. I too have thought that. But things can get worse. I have considered this pandemic a "moderate" pandemic. The 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic was a "mild" pandemic and the 1918 Spanish Flu was a "severe" pandemic. My fears right now reside in what has arisen in South Africa in the new variant taking that country by storm. If the anecdotal evidence of it effecting younger people more severely and the much higher transmissibility is true then there is a chance that this pandemic can go from a moderate to a severe pandemic. I dearly hope that is not how this plays out. But I am a contingency thinker, and my mind has begun weighing this possibility.

Be safe and endure.
 
WalMart does have the pick-up option here but usually it is the scarce "in store" things that I am looking for. It seems everyone wants to order my selections at the same time! lol
 
If we were to have responded to this pandemic without oxygen tanks and ICU beds - the toll would be similar to 1918.
With an easier to transmit strain, it will be similar to how we provided care during 1918 with austere medicine.
 
Could someone please clarify this for me.

When we are informed on the number of vaccines that have been administered to the public, "they" are including the Pfizer-BioNtech Covid-19 first vaccine dose in their stats.
When in reality, these people are not vaccinated until second dose is completed.

The Pfizer vaccine requires 2 doses to be administered, 3 weeks apart. In my opinion, this vaccination is not completed until both doses are administered.
And what if a person receiving the first doses does not go back for their second dose? That person would not be vaccinated.
 
There has been discussion about providing only 1 dose because at least 50% of those receiving the vaccine will have immunity - the more people immunized quickly, the better opportunity there is to stop the transmission potential.

Example - Assume there are 200 doses available:

Scenario 1:
100 people receive 1 dose. Within one week, 50 people will not be susceptible to COVID.
If they wait three weeks (Pfizer specific) and receive the 2nd dose, 97 will not be susceptible one week after second dose.

Scenario 2:
200 people receive 1 dose. Within one week, 100 will not be susceptible to COVID.

Outcome:
Providing vaccine to 200 people diminishes the ability for the virus to transmit among 100 people within 1 week, whereas providing two doses to 100 people takes 4 weeks to diminish the ability for the virus to transmit among 97 people.

I hope they consider this seriously and implement accordingly.



LINK BELOW: pages 29 and 30 provide detail on single dose efficacy in Pfizer clinical trial. Approx. 52.4% efficacy in single dose recipients before second dose administered. With one dose, it is estimated half of the single dose recipients will have immunity to COVID. With the second dose, Up to 97% (possibly more) will have immunity.

Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine Emergency Use Authorization Review Memorandum
https://www.fda.gov/media/144416/download
 
Mary's point is really one of semantics. There are no FDA approved vaccines so you could argue no one has been vaccinated with an approved vaccine some have started a two shot course under a EUA. Make what you like of the numbers.

curiosity asks about the merits of doubling the number of people injected by reducing to a single dose but I would be against this. Johnson & Johnson is the only major vaccine candidate designed to work as a one shot vaccine, all the others use a prime boost strategy. The first dose is aimed at finding and interacting with the very rare B and T cells that carry an antibody match to a SARS-CoV-2 antigen and starting those cells dividing the second shot is timed to interact with these cells descendants, which should now be more numerous, and repeat the process but starting from a significantly higher base. The first dose starts the ball rolling and hopeful creates some CD4+ Tfhcs which will enable B Cells in the germinal centers of the Lymph nodes to improve the affinity of their antibodies and class switch to be come Plasma cell producing lots of well targeted IgG. SARS specific CD8+ T cells should also start replicating which can kill infected cell displaying SARS specific peptides. The first shot just initiates the process but the numbers of CD4, CD8 and IGg producing B cells are small the booster finds an already primed immune system and greatly ramps up the process. The final aim is to leave the vaccinated individual with enough CD4+ and CD8+ T and memory B cells to mount a rapid response to any challenge by the same pathogen in the future. We do not know how long this will be effective for. The IgG circulating antibodies have a half life and will decay fairly rapidly and without virus in the host the B & T cells will also wane but the hope is there will be enough T & B memory cells matched to the pathogens antigens to treat any subsequent challenge as an other boost to an already primed immune system. If you do not get the second shot before the first shot's cells begin to die then you will probably only get very short term protection so it may look good shortly after the first shot but it needs to be re-challenged at that point to increase the numbers of B and T cells so there are a useful number left circulating long after the acute effects have subsided.
 
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Factbox-Coronavirus variants, found in UK and South Africa, travel the world

LONDON (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said a variant of the coronavirus, which could be up to 70% more transmissible, is spreading rapidly in Britain. A separate variant, first found in South Africa, is also causing concern.

The World Health Organization (WHO) says there is not enough information to determine whether the new variants could undermine vaccines being rolled out internationally.

The following countries are among those that have reported variants of the novel coronavirus, first identified in China a year ago, among their populations.

* SWITZERLAND has documented five cases of the variant from Britain and two cases of the South African mutation, a health ministry official said on Tuesday, adding he anticipates more cases will emerge.

* DENMARK has identified 33 infections with the variant spreading in Britain, authorities said on Dec. 24.

* FRANCE, with the highest number of coronavirus cases in the European Union, recorded its first case of a variant in a Frenchman arriving back from London.

* INDIA has found six cases of a variant of the coronavirus on a flight from Britain and will likely extend a flight ban to guard against it, officials said on Tuesday.

* JAPAN on Monday detected the variant found in South Africa, the government said, the first such discovery in a nation that has already identified more than a dozen cases of the variant spreading in Britain.
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<snip>

https://www.reuters.com/article/instant-article/idUSKBN2931BO

The list continues. Please follow the link to see the whole list of countries and the description.
 
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