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Discussion thread II - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)
- Thread starter Pathfinder
- Start date
Emily
Editor, Senior Moderator
Shiloh,
I am depending on a couple of machine translators, but bertrand seems to be talking about farmed 'wild' species brought to the market, not pet domestic dogs or cats. The Chinese scientist in the link her is not a virologist or veterinarian. I think he is speculating. However, it is always a good idea to keep pets safe at home or on a leash, especially now with the unrest in China.
I am depending on a couple of machine translators, but bertrand seems to be talking about farmed 'wild' species brought to the market, not pet domestic dogs or cats. The Chinese scientist in the link her is not a virologist or veterinarian. I think he is speculating. However, it is always a good idea to keep pets safe at home or on a leash, especially now with the unrest in China.
Emily
Editor, Senior Moderator
I don't see any experts identified in this article. It confuses a common canine coronavirus disease for which there is a vaccine with 2019-cov. There is no evidence that the human disease infects dogs or that the canine coronavirus vaccine would be cross-protective in spite of it being effective for canine coronavirus in puppies.
Emily
Editor, Senior Moderator
What appears to be a sincere, emotional and authentic video from within Wuhan Jan 29-30th, 2020.
Based on the reporting by this individual it seems that the number of confirmed cases from within Wuhan could be artificially low due to the lack of testing kits.
The video has English captions - it gets pretty intense towards the end.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AI3R41dGnU
Based on the reporting by this individual it seems that the number of confirmed cases from within Wuhan could be artificially low due to the lack of testing kits.
The video has English captions - it gets pretty intense towards the end.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7AI3R41dGnU
You know it is getting serious when..
Facebook:
Limiting Misinformation and Harmful Content
We will also start to remove content with false claims or conspiracy theories that have been flagged by leading global health organizations and local health authorities that could cause harm to people who believe them. We are doing this as an extension of our existing policies to remove content that could cause physical harm. We’re focusing on claims that are designed to discourage treatment or taking appropriate precautions.
https://about.fb.com/news/2020/01/coronavirus/
Facebook:
Limiting Misinformation and Harmful Content
We will also start to remove content with false claims or conspiracy theories that have been flagged by leading global health organizations and local health authorities that could cause harm to people who believe them. We are doing this as an extension of our existing policies to remove content that could cause physical harm. We’re focusing on claims that are designed to discourage treatment or taking appropriate precautions.
https://about.fb.com/news/2020/01/coronavirus/
This article seems to validate what the guy in the video was saying. Basically, not enough test kits and not everyone is getting tested.
"To qualify for the test, patients need to meet certain criteria, such as having symptoms of fever and pneumonia, and a surge in patients means it is “impossible to conduct the test right away,” an official at the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention told Reuters.
Three hospital and local government workers, who have been briefed on how doctors are handling tests and confirming cases, told Reuters that official numbers of infections and deaths do not reflect the actual toll."...
...“Some severely ill patients were left out from the final list for testing because they know they wouldn’t be able to be treated,” the worker told Reuters. “The actual deaths were higher.”
https://www.stltoday.com/lifestyles/...7ac2d867d.html
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
There are companion threads to this one:
Discussion Thread I - 2019-nCov (new coronavirus)
Discussion: Videos, news reports, various information about what is going on in the blocked off cities in China
Discussion Thread I - 2019-nCov (new coronavirus)
Discussion: Videos, news reports, various information about what is going on in the blocked off cities in China
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
At least this site exists to still get the information out - at least while information is still obtainable.
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
As the spread continues into other countries the government mantra seems to be "low risk". I think looking at Hong Kong is prudent. Their press is more free than mainland China. Their medical system is better too. As far as China goes. Just wow. No words really.
I think for people in the risk group of older people and people with co-morbidities conversations need to be had about "what if" my country can't control this.
I am very uncomfortable with the messaging from the governments. It should be more like:
"Hey there is a storm brewing."
"We don't know what is going to happen".
"Hopefully we will be able to control the situation better than China."
"We are doing our best to handle any situation that might emerge but really...only you can protect you."
"Prepare yourself for an emergency like an oncoming snow storm or hurricane".
"Some things to do are get refills on your meds. Stock up on a few days of supplies so you can chose when to go to the store. Buy hand soap and other types of personal protection."
"Masks are gone so be ready to: practice social distancing, avoiding crowds, staying home if you are sick."
"Wash your hands frequently, ask your work about a 'what if' plan."
"As you can see they have closed the schools in Hong Kong - think about what you would do if that happens in your community."
"We are hoping for the best and we are doing a lot of things at the federal level - but the reality is that we can not take care of everyone. You need to be thinking about this now, just-in-case."
Those are some of the things I would be saying if it was me.
I think for people in the risk group of older people and people with co-morbidities conversations need to be had about "what if" my country can't control this.
I am very uncomfortable with the messaging from the governments. It should be more like:
"Hey there is a storm brewing."
"We don't know what is going to happen".
"Hopefully we will be able to control the situation better than China."
"We are doing our best to handle any situation that might emerge but really...only you can protect you."
"Prepare yourself for an emergency like an oncoming snow storm or hurricane".
"Some things to do are get refills on your meds. Stock up on a few days of supplies so you can chose when to go to the store. Buy hand soap and other types of personal protection."
"Masks are gone so be ready to: practice social distancing, avoiding crowds, staying home if you are sick."
"Wash your hands frequently, ask your work about a 'what if' plan."
"As you can see they have closed the schools in Hong Kong - think about what you would do if that happens in your community."
"We are hoping for the best and we are doing a lot of things at the federal level - but the reality is that we can not take care of everyone. You need to be thinking about this now, just-in-case."
Those are some of the things I would be saying if it was me.
gsgs
Registered User
what's the timeline here ? People should be trying to avoid the virus until we have a vaccine in ~1 year ?!?
Hoping that it will stall in summer and maybe reappear next winter, so there would still be ~3 months missing.
Not go to work during this time ? Isolate the old people homes etc. for 3 months ?
Assuming the vaccine will be 90% effective or such - other than for flu.
Hoping that it will stall in summer and maybe reappear next winter, so there would still be ~3 months missing.
Not go to work during this time ? Isolate the old people homes etc. for 3 months ?
Assuming the vaccine will be 90% effective or such - other than for flu.
Agree. I cannot reconcile the actions of the Chinese government with the USA description of the virus as low risk.
Even if high risk, the interference with communication and repetitive news loops we see reported in Wuhan are recipes for long term psychological trauma.
The erosion of trust in the government will have long lasting consequences.
Hong Kong is a good window. I plan to use in conversation your question:
"As you can see they have closed the schools in Hong Kong - think about what you would do if that happens in your community."
Our local experience when they briefly closed schools here for H1N1 was the kids went to the mall. At least these days they are more attached to communal videogames.
Meanwhile in USA we might be able to track influenza rates as indicators of vulnerabilities that can be corrected before 2019-nCoV takes hold here.
For messaging I am trying out-
Stop 2019-nCoV ?
Stop influenza !
Even if high risk, the interference with communication and repetitive news loops we see reported in Wuhan are recipes for long term psychological trauma.
The erosion of trust in the government will have long lasting consequences.
Hong Kong is a good window. I plan to use in conversation your question:
"As you can see they have closed the schools in Hong Kong - think about what you would do if that happens in your community."
Our local experience when they briefly closed schools here for H1N1 was the kids went to the mall. At least these days they are more attached to communal videogames.
Meanwhile in USA we might be able to track influenza rates as indicators of vulnerabilities that can be corrected before 2019-nCoV takes hold here.
For messaging I am trying out-
Stop 2019-nCoV ?
Stop influenza !
There really should be a sticky which tracks the total number of cases and deaths, both inside China as well as in the rest of the world.
There had been a superb post earlier which showed these data plotted on a semi log scale, which really allowed one to monitor the overall extent of the outbreak.
It would also give an indication of the effectiveness of the countermeasures, which were pretty much nil through to the end of last week.
There had been a superb post earlier which showed these data plotted on a semi log scale, which really allowed one to monitor the overall extent of the outbreak.
It would also give an indication of the effectiveness of the countermeasures, which were pretty much nil through to the end of last week.
Pathfinder
Editor, Senior Moderator
Posted by the National Health Commission of China on January 28, 2020
Excerpts:
Translation Google
...
Most of the elderly people are critically ill in this outbreak. Local people's governments at all levels, and health and civil affairs departments at all levels must fully understand the serious situation of the spread of pneumonia caused by new coronavirus among the elderly
...
Minimize going out. If you really need to go out, be sure to protect yourself.
...
Attention should be paid to the allocation of medical care and protective materials for the elderly to meet the needs of epidemic prevention and control. Grassroots medical and health institutions found that elderly patients with fever should be immediately referred to designated hospitals for medical treatment.
...
Once a suspected pneumonia outbreak occurs, refer to the designated hospital immediately.
...
It is necessary to stop holding gathering activities, implement strict disinfection, maintain environmental sanitation, do a good job of garbage and sewage treatment, and purchase and distribute daily protective supplies in a timely manner. In areas with severe epidemics, the elderly care institutions should be equipped with corresponding protective equipment, have the necessary living and nursing service conditions, set up isolation observation rooms, and conditionally set up isolation areas and disinfection rooms.
...
...we must strengthen publicity and advocacy for the elderly in homes, communities, and institutions, so that the elderly can fully understand the danger of pneumonia epidemic of new coronavirus infection
http://www.nhc.gov.cn/cms-search/xxgk/getManuscriptXxgk.htm?id=96e82ba8a14d41b283da990d39771493
Excerpts:
Translation Google
...
Most of the elderly people are critically ill in this outbreak. Local people's governments at all levels, and health and civil affairs departments at all levels must fully understand the serious situation of the spread of pneumonia caused by new coronavirus among the elderly
...
Minimize going out. If you really need to go out, be sure to protect yourself.
...
Attention should be paid to the allocation of medical care and protective materials for the elderly to meet the needs of epidemic prevention and control. Grassroots medical and health institutions found that elderly patients with fever should be immediately referred to designated hospitals for medical treatment.
...
Once a suspected pneumonia outbreak occurs, refer to the designated hospital immediately.
...
It is necessary to stop holding gathering activities, implement strict disinfection, maintain environmental sanitation, do a good job of garbage and sewage treatment, and purchase and distribute daily protective supplies in a timely manner. In areas with severe epidemics, the elderly care institutions should be equipped with corresponding protective equipment, have the necessary living and nursing service conditions, set up isolation observation rooms, and conditionally set up isolation areas and disinfection rooms.
...
...we must strengthen publicity and advocacy for the elderly in homes, communities, and institutions, so that the elderly can fully understand the danger of pneumonia epidemic of new coronavirus infection
http://www.nhc.gov.cn/cms-search/xxgk/getManuscriptXxgk.htm?id=96e82ba8a14d41b283da990d39771493
Pathfinder
Editor, Senior Moderator
Institut Pasteur:
Concerning "the two full sequences of the virus isolated in two of the first French cases":
"Around twenty other sequences of the novel coronavirus genome have been obtained worldwide, and if we compare them with ours, we can see that they are all very close; there is not much diversity in the viruses analyzed, which suggests that coronavirus 2019-nCoV did not need to mutate in order to adapt and spread," continues Vincent Enouf.
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...es-in-france-institut-pasteur-january-30-2020
Concerning "the two full sequences of the virus isolated in two of the first French cases":
"Around twenty other sequences of the novel coronavirus genome have been obtained worldwide, and if we compare them with ours, we can see that they are all very close; there is not much diversity in the viruses analyzed, which suggests that coronavirus 2019-nCoV did not need to mutate in order to adapt and spread," continues Vincent Enouf.
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...es-in-france-institut-pasteur-january-30-2020
So... what is the current prep thread - whatever it is, pls move this there.. If everyone does the 2 weeks of food thing, we get the fragile supply chain issue folks see with hurricanes.I wish we'd fixed the resilience issue some time since NSPI was published... we've had nothing but crickets since then.
OMG... folks can still find it...
https://www.globalsecurity.org/secur.../nspi-2007.htm
Oh, one last - for the folks that weren't engaged then. The CFR for the H5N1 floating around in Indonesia in 2005 was 65% -- that's why the fluboards were stood up. I'm really glad this one is still here.
OMG... folks can still find it...
https://www.globalsecurity.org/secur.../nspi-2007.htm
Oh, one last - for the folks that weren't engaged then. The CFR for the H5N1 floating around in Indonesia in 2005 was 65% -- that's why the fluboards were stood up. I'm really glad this one is still here.
Last edited:
sharon sanders
Editor-in-Chief & President
We have that post but almost immediately after it is updated - more cases have been discovered.
I update it once a day after China reports their numbers. There are new countries today that are not on that list yet. I will bump that thread each night around 9 pm ET.
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...laimer-we-do-not-endorse-any-of-these-numbers
Shiloh
Editor, Senior Moderator
Source: https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/01/31/is-reporting-of-the-coronavirus-producing-viral-panic/
Is reporting of the coronavirus producing viral panic?
January 31, 2020
There are two different outbreaks: one outbreak of a coronavirus, and one of viral fake-news, argue Clare Wenham and colleagues
Coronaviruses cause common colds, they also cause nCoV2019, but which of these messages is getting through to the public? Currently, the average UK citizen is much more likely to be infected with seasonal influenza than they are the novel coronavirus, but this is not what the population is concerned about, evidenced by lower vaccine uptake in recent years among over 65s and less than half pre-school children accepting the newly introduced influenza vaccine for their age group. There is a mismatch between the actual threat posed to the population by this newly emerging pathogen, and the perceived threat nationally and globally, spurred on by misinformation and competing media accounts. We conceptualise this as two different outbreaks: one outbreak of a coronavirus, and one of viral fake-news.
This sensationalised panic and fear concerning the nCoV2019 outbreak is a consequence of the proliferation of sources of information which exaggerate the severity of this outbreak, and a failure of public health institutions, such as the World Health Organization or Public Health England to demonstrate the authority in their risk communication and public health campaigns. In an era of real time reporting and smartphones, the evidence based voices of these health agencies are lost amid a sea of online “experts.” ...
Is reporting of the coronavirus producing viral panic?
January 31, 2020
There are two different outbreaks: one outbreak of a coronavirus, and one of viral fake-news, argue Clare Wenham and colleagues
Coronaviruses cause common colds, they also cause nCoV2019, but which of these messages is getting through to the public? Currently, the average UK citizen is much more likely to be infected with seasonal influenza than they are the novel coronavirus, but this is not what the population is concerned about, evidenced by lower vaccine uptake in recent years among over 65s and less than half pre-school children accepting the newly introduced influenza vaccine for their age group. There is a mismatch between the actual threat posed to the population by this newly emerging pathogen, and the perceived threat nationally and globally, spurred on by misinformation and competing media accounts. We conceptualise this as two different outbreaks: one outbreak of a coronavirus, and one of viral fake-news.
This sensationalised panic and fear concerning the nCoV2019 outbreak is a consequence of the proliferation of sources of information which exaggerate the severity of this outbreak, and a failure of public health institutions, such as the World Health Organization or Public Health England to demonstrate the authority in their risk communication and public health campaigns. In an era of real time reporting and smartphones, the evidence based voices of these health agencies are lost amid a sea of online “experts.” ...
No final determination on cause of death, however I’ve seen plenty of photos and videos of similar and given the virus is automatically assumed, it is probably fair to say it was the virus. Truly sad.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...ead-man-china-coronavirus-wuhan/#.XjSrHqROmEc
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...ead-man-china-coronavirus-wuhan/#.XjSrHqROmEc