Discussion thread IV - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

[JJackson]

re. methods of transmission. I think we may be over complicating things and it all boils down to relative probabilities. My assumption is most transmission is due to droplets and most of these fall to the ground within 2m of the host. A small number don't and could be expelled further by violent coughing and a small number happen to be in very small drops that stay aloft longer. Of those that fall to the ground they will start becoming less infectious over time until they have too small a viral load to realistically start a new infection. The further away you are in distance and time from the hosts release of virions the safer you are statistically. There is evidence that what you say matters for instance 'stay safe' is dangerous as the 's' sound is formed by pushing the tongue against the pallet and then releasing it causing a release of pressure. When filmed with suitable lighting you can see the effect on droplet transmission. Intubating patients is known to cause a different proportion of small drops and I can not see any reason why singing may not change the size and projection of droplets and may therefore warrant greater spacing. This may also be true for different languages listening to Chinese or Vietnamese speakers they use very different sounds, and ways of forming sounds, than we do in Latin based languages. Could be an interesting thesis subject for someone interested in phonetics and airborne disease transmission. I looked at the Goldberg drum which seemed to be a cylinder with complex air flow allowing you to simulate even deposition rates of different sizes on the inside of the cylinder. You could line the drum with hard plastic, cloth etc. and then study the infectious decay rate over time for the chosen lining.

[Shiloh]

In case you missed it..so far, HK has reported Covid-19 in two dogs and today, a cat. Belgium has also reported a case in a cat. In HK, they tested rectal samples and the virus was present. I presume that the virus is present in feces. So...can we expect it to spread among our domestic animal population? Dogs are notorious for eating stool. Never had a cat, so can't speak to that. What do you all think of this? So far there is no evidence that our pets can infect owners. The virus doesn't appear to make the animals ill.

[JJackson]

Two points Shiloh. The first canine sequence has been deposited at GISAID and is identical to HK human sequences at that time so very likely human to dog transmission. The RT PCR test picks up RNA sequences in the stool, not live virus, so it is quite possible there is no active virus in the sample just RNA fragments from virions that have been degraded by the digestive system. The stomach adds hydrochloric acid (which causes heart burn if it gets into the esophagus) which is then neutralised in the duodenum. Not an easy journey for the virion to survive given that the digestive tract's function is to breakdown the fats and proteins the virus is made of. I have not seen any experimental data on attempts to culture live virus from feaces but suspect some one will try.

[Emily]

I think I would hide my dog or cat if I lived in Hong Kong and felt ill. They've gone off the deep end insisting the animals be quarantined and certainly stressed that older dog to death. Worms & Germs even said it was likely stressed to death. Until they culture live virus I am not impressed. Even a positive antibody test is suspect for cross-reactivity and notoriously inaccurate at the low end of ranges. Read up on false positives for HIV and herpes - lots of psychological damage done. I'll admit the cat in Belgium did have a mild illness, but right now the scales weigh towards more harm from animal abuse and abandonment than viral danger to pets, (See https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-ne...ology/),though I agree with the general cleanliness, handwashing and not letting animals run free. As for danger to humans, I think immune compromised people get adequate advice from their doctors about animal contact. There are plenty of known concerns.

[c3jmp]

on the dust/nuclei thing.. break the evaporation, flip the charge on the particles, burn away the outer layers, do continuous air exchange.. identify the risk, vectors, controls and mitigation, know the gaps between.. then make an informed decision, even if its a quick one.. .a very long time ago, i used to start iv's.. folks didn't wear gloves then, and later they did.. now they do.. if i couldn't palpate the vein with the glove on, i took it off - it was an informed decision. hiv was new, no cure, no fix, and needles go through gloves as well as skin.. know the risk, decide. and if you're starting a line in the back of a truck, rolling down the road -- beware the bumps.

[sharon sanders]

US - President endorses homemade masks for regular people in news conference.

Our homemade masks forum here: https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/ideas-on-how-to-protect-yourself-from-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov/discussion-how-to-make-a-mask…

Finally!!!

Ok..people...help protect yourselves & others...cover your mucous membranes with something to limit spread.

#Masks4All

[sharon sanders]

Hi to our psychiatrists.

Well....at the coronavirus task force meeting today there was again the mention of the potential death count of 85k link in the U.S. This is a stunning number.

Please think about what you can post on the site to give people some comfort and coping skills. Also - as you know, millions around the world are losing their incomes in addition to the loss of life.

Here is our psychological forum:

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...nd-development

Please let me know if you need anything.


To our viewers - we will be here every day. Again, so sorry this is happening to everyone. Us too.

[sharon sanders]

This is the modeling group that the White House, Fauci, et. al. are using. http://www.healthdata.org/research-a...ays-and-deaths

[Sally Furniss]

In the FAQ section social distancing is classified using the New Zealand Government alert system Level 4

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs

[drlipton]

Hello Sharon and friends, I am a psychiatrist, with decades of experience dealing with existential threat as well as the ordinary horrors of life. I tried to join the Melissa Hein Forum and the web site did not allow me to subscribe. So, I would like to subscribe, and then see what happens. Sometimes I write best when it is to a person with a singular question. If people pose questions on the Forum, I'd be happy to chime in. I feel that it is important to keep the reality of this catastrophe personal, with heart. Stalin is alleged to have said, "“If only one man dies of hunger, that is a tragedy. If millions die, that’s only statistics.” I see one aspect of my job is to be constantly open to tragedy, not to develop psychic numbing or indifference. Please let me know if there is a way to open this up.

[Sally Furniss]

This is wishful thinking in the extreme

Turkmenistan bans use of word 'coronavirus'
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/1...rd-coronavirus

[sharon sanders]

FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers

Hi everyone. Thanks for following.

We again want to say how sorry we are that these terrible events are happening to you.

We were horrified about what we saw in China and then to watch it roll through the entire world....

Heartbreaking.

Please take care of you.

[JJackson]

A cargo ship has been denied entry to Halifax in Canada. This is part of a much larger problem we will have to address as a matter of urgency. While the cruise ships have got a lot of coverage the real problem is supply chain disruption which is being exacerbated by no clear policy on accepting vessels with suspect cases. The consequence is owners and crew are understandably concerned about putting to sea without a guarantee that if they get sick on route they will be looked after on arrival. I saw a figure of 10,000 cargo ships sitting in port, although I can not vouch for its accuracy or exactly what they were counting as ships. It is all very well telling the public to stay at home but if the food stuffs we need are not moving around the globe the shops will not be supplied and fuel of all types will stop being available. This is not just human foods there is panic buying of everything from fish farm pellets to fertilizers and pesticides.
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...ndemic-and-bdi
The link is to an old post looking at shipping in a pandemic and its supply chain implications. There are also many posts on the site covering all aspects of supply chain issues including other potentially catastrophic issues like water purification chemicals. Many of these issues have long timescales so lack of movement now can be compensated for by use of stockpiles but, like PPE these will not last indefinitely. Respirators and PPE are the tip of the iceberg and many more items will start becoming limiting unless we reconsider international boarder restrictions and treat the merchant marines as we do HCWs - essential to our collective survival.

[Pathfinder]

Rick Scott Demands Investigation of China–WHO Ties

By ZACHARY EVANS
March 31, 2020 5:48 PM

Senator Rick Scott (R., Fla.) called Tuesday for Congress to investigate the World Health Organization’s ties to China, accusing the organization of relaying Chinese propaganda during the Wuhan-coronavirus pandemic.

The WHO needs “to be held accountable for their role in promoting misinformation and helping Communist China cover up a global pandemic,” Scott said in a statement. “We know Communist China is lying about how many cases and deaths they have . . . and the WHO never bothered to investigate further. Their inaction cost lives.”
...

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/coronavirus-china-rick-scott-demands-investigation-of-china-world-health-organization-ties/

[Pathfinder]

China Concealed Extent of Virus Outbreak, U.S. Intelligence Says

By Nick Wadhams and Jennifer Jacobs
April 1, 2020, 10:15 AM CDT Updated on April 1, 2020, 12:21 PM CDT

China has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in its country, under-reporting both total cases and deaths it’s suffered from the disease, the U.S. intelligence community concluded in a classified report to the White House, according to three U.S. officials.
...
Deborah Birx, the State Department immunologist advising the White House on its response to the outbreak, said Tuesday that China’s public reporting influenced assumptions elsewhere in the world about the nature of the virus.

“The medical community made -- interpreted the Chinese data as: This was serious, but smaller than anyone expected,” she said at a news conference on Tuesday. “Because I think probably we were missing a significant amount of the data, now that what we see happened to Italy and see what happened to Spain.”

China isn’t the only country with suspect public reporting. Western officials have pointed to Iran, Russia, Indonesia and especially North Korea, which has not reported a single case of the disease, as probable under-counts. Others including Saudi Arabia and Egypt may also be playing down their numbers.
...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says?srnd=premium

[gsgs]

Emily, where is the CDC-data of weekly deaths from all causes ?

The CDC keeps track of weekly mortality in the US and the data available for the most recent week (ending March 7) shows about 48,000 deaths, sharply down from the normal 55,000.

See: https://www.dropbox.com/s/2y2gvh2q7a...ences.pdf?dl=0

[Emily]

Emily, where is the CDC-data of weekly deaths from all causes ?

The CDC keeps track of weekly mortality in the US and the data available for the most recent week (ending March 7) shows about 48,000 deaths, sharply down from the normal 55,000.

See: https://www.dropbox.com/s/2y2gvh2q7a...ences.pdf?dl=0

gsgs, that was etudiante that posted the dropbox data, not me. I tried looking for recent weekly mortality on CDC's site and went round in circles with no success but I'm not an expert on digging into their data. The dropbox link doesn't work for me now. Maybe ask etudiante?

[Emily]

I wonder if Tamiflu could make things worse? I think they are using it as part of a trial cocktail now. I read that some drugs made SARS1 patients sicker.

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2020/03/i-had-no-more-air-left-warren-man-details-coronavirus-hospitalization-while-warning-people-to-stay-home.html

"CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Kevin Harris thought he had the flu. His doctor thought he had the flu.

But after taking Tamiflu, the 55-year-old body shop owner from Warren just kept feeling sicker and sicker, to the point where he couldn’t walk to the bathroom without stopping 20 minutes to rest."

It would take him an hour to cover 50 ft to the bathroom:

https://nypost.com/2020/03/18/coronavirus-patient-on-hellish-ordeal-i-was-screaming-for-mercy-and-praying-to-god/

[sharon sanders]

Craig Spencer MD MPH

@Craig_A_Spencer
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There's really no way to describe what we're seeing. Our new reality is unreal. The people and places we've known so long & so well have been transformed. Our ERs are ICUs. Everything looks, sounds and feels different. Just one week and it's a whole different world. THREAD
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Craig Spencer MD MPH

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There are tents outside our hospitals. Every time I see them, I stop, startled. Their drab and dirty flaps seem so out of place against the grand facades of world-class hospitals. Desperate times, desperate measures. The last time I worked in a tent was West Africa.
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Craig Spencer MD MPH

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In those same tents, I saw too much pain, loneliness, and death. People dying alone. I never thought I'd have to see or experience that ever again. I never wanted to. Once was painful enough. We have no other option now. Our ICUs are filling fast. Our ERs are ICUs.
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Craig Spencer MD MPH

@Craig_A_Spencer
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The patients I normally see are nowhere to be found. Every single person I see has #COVID19. Every single patient. Working in the ER means walking through a corridor of coughing. All a slightly different pitch & different frequency, but all caused by the exact same thing.
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Craig Spencer MD MPH

@Craig_A_Spencer
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It's not just the volume of patients that's hitting us. It's the severity. Respiratory arrest. Respiratory arrest. Respiratory arrest. Each takes 6-8 professionals. Nurses, respiratory techs, ER docs, anesthesiologists. Each takes an hour or more. Back to back. All shift.
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Craig Spencer MD MPH

@Craig_A_Spencer
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And it's not just the severity, back to back. We're all being asked to do things we've never done before. Run a code as your goggles fog & you can't decipher the vital signs on the monitor. Try to predict which COVID patient will crash if you send them home. And which won't.
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Craig Spencer MD MPH

@Craig_A_Spencer
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Talk to palliative care. Talk to family members. Long discussions about likely outcomes. Listen as family members sob. They aren't here to say goodbye when they ask to withdraw care. We FaceTime so they can say goodbye. We stop the drips. Turn off the ventilator. And wait.
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Craig Spencer MD MPH

@Craig_A_Spencer
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Your hands upon theirs. You think of their family. At home. Sobbing. Someone starts saying a prayer. You can't help but cry. This isn't what we do. You stand by. You wait. This isn't what we do. You stand by. You wait. Time of death: 7:19pm

[sharon sanders]

Zhong Nanshan: Worried that some countries cannot control the epidemic and will bring disaster to the world


April 02, 2020 21:06


　　Chinanews client April 2nd (Song Yusheng) On April 2nd, Academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering Zhong Nanshan said at the Xinguan Epidemic Prevention and Control International Sharing Conference. From China ’s experience, the key areas of the epidemic were closed and people remained social Distance and wearing a mask are certainly the best way to prevent further spread of the epidemic. "I am concerned that the epidemic is spreading rapidly in some countries. Too many patients will place a huge burden on the medical system. There are no beds, no medical facilities, and no professionals. This will cause a vicious circle. If some countries cannot control the epidemic Will bring disaster to the whole world, and no country can stay aside. "

[Edit

zhttp://www.chinanews.com/sh/2020/04-02/9145940.shtml