Discussion thread III - Covid-19 (new coronavirus)

[alert]

Emily - Contact tracing will save lives. It is way too early to give up. The people doing it are exhausted. This is a life/death emergency. Their work is heroic.

Alert - I wish you were right. Take a look at the data in the WHO team report on China. The prevalence of the disease in the general population is not as high as they hoped it would be - is in fact low outside Hubei.
Guandong province is an example. Chains of transmission are also very clearly related to close contact and clusters. If we can contact trace, quarantine and isolate these clusters, we can decrease the impact significantly.

I was only referring to Hubei. Yes, Guangdong and by extension the rest of China, seem to have avoided the kind of community spread Hubei had, at least so far. But more than half the total cases in China came from Hubei, so if Hubei has run out of people to infect, that means the overall daily numbers would come down.

It remains to be seen if the rest of China is going to have another peak later, as Italy and Iran seem to be having now.

[JJackson]

I agree with Curiosity the WHO team data points to a much lower than expected number of mild/sub clinical cases implying most of the hoped for 'iceberg' is not below the water. Two serological tests have been approved and are about to start which should give a much better picture of what has been going on under the radar. Unfortunately the results may still be a while as they will need to run the first batch on known recovered patients to establish a base line for antibody development over time and to adjust/calibrate the sensitivity prior to full deployment through a cross section of society in each area. All data coming out of China, including Wuhan, shows a very steep decline in new cases and current data show S Korea is reporting more daily cases than Hubei and has a smaller population. The R0 varies enormously depending on where you look, cruise ship or Korean church being great spreading territory but in a locked down Wuhan it is below 1 and consequently the 2000+ new cases/day in late Jan. are now a few hundred which is where we were in early Jan. The lock down is working but the cost has been fearful. All the available evidence (that we have now) says Wuhan's recovery is not due to herd immunity unless most people just can't catch it in the first place which is not impossible just very unlikely.

[cartski]

So can the body’s response to the COVID-19 disease be called a ? severe acute respiratory syndrome ? ?

yes I know that the viral strains are different. It is from the body’s point of view I wonder if there is any difference

[Pathfinder]

So can the body’s response to the COVID-19 disease be called a ? severe acute respiratory syndrome ? ?

yes I know that the viral strains are different. It is from the body’s point of view I wonder if there is any difference

Excellent reading here:

Hat tip Tetano

Viruses. Systematic Comparison of Two Animal-to-Human Transmitted Human Coronaviruses: SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/832412-viruses-systematic-comparison-of-two-animal-to-human-transmitted-human-coronaviruses-sars-cov-2-and-sars-cov

[gsgs]

Alert, Hebei or Hubei ? Hubei was also quarantined , first it went down in China ex Hubei then in Hubei ex Wuhan then in Wuhan.
It was mostly in Wuhan. At the peak there were as many cases in Hubei ex Wuhan as in Wuhan, but presumably much more
underreporting in Wuhan. By Feb20 they had twice as many new cases in Wuhan than in Hubei ex Wuhan and now 3 times.
Starting from Feb01, without Wuhan it would have been much easier to contain it. Most effort went into Wuhan : the hospitals,
the medical teams, the contact-tracing. There is no Wuhan yet in USA. Why should it be so difficult to contain it as in China ?
scan the travelers. forbid mass-events etc.

[MHSC]

It’s not public knowledge yet but there is a probable case in Chelsea, MI. Cruise and flight history with an opaque chest X-ray. I’ll keep you posted if I hear anything more.

[Shiloh]

I was thinking that one of the reasons Iran may face high Covif-19 casualties is due to the use of chemicals during the Iran-Iraq war. I read somewhere that in 2002, 80,000 were still being treated. How many are still alive, don't know, but they are at risk.

[Sharky]

Does anyone happen to have links to evidence showing support for airborne transmission of COVID-19? I recall hearing about it in several videos from respectable sources, but I've lost track of the details.

[Emily]

Does anyone happen to have links to evidence showing support for airborne transmission of COVID-19? I recall hearing about it in several videos from respectable sources, but I've lost track of the details.

The doctors at Evergreen in Kirkland, WA, just said they are transforming the whole critical care unit into a negative pressure containment unit. He did not say why, just that they are doing everything they can.

https://q13fox.com/2020/03/02/king-county-reports-14-confirmed-coronavirus-cases-including-5-deaths/

Dr. Ettore Palazoo with EvergreenHealth said that in addition to the confirmed cases at the facility, there are 29 cases that are pending investigation.

"We have made adjustments at the organization to allow for airborne precautions," Palazoo said. "We are in a situation where we are able to convert our entire critical care unit over to a negative pressure scenario where we can keep those patients and staff caring for the patients safe.”

[Pathfinder]

Translation Google

What are the fears of cold, hot, dry and wet new crown virus? German medical experts answer questions
global

Compose: Nie Zhenyu
2020-03-02 10:33:00

Once the temperature rises, the new coronavirus will dissipate? Why spring might indeed be a gospel, and what makes the new coronavirus special, a German virologist answers.

According to the Voice of Germany report on March 1, many people expect that spring will make the situation better. If the new crown virus really resembles the flu virus, it may be considered good news. Because if this happens, as the spring comes, the temperature will rise, the virus will be killed, and the epidemic will disappear.

But these are just people's good wishes. Thomas Pietschmann, a molecular virologist at the Center for Experimental and Clinical Infection Research in Hanover, Germany, believes that whether the new crown virus will behave as expected, this question cannot be strictly answered because humans Virus awareness is not enough.

"The special thing about this virus is that it's the first time humans have come into contact with it. Based on the data we got from China, we can conclude that the virus was transmitted from an animal to humans, just once, and then from there Began to spread. "

In other words, unlike the flu virus that almost everyone has come into contact with, our immune system is not ready for the invasion of the new crown virus.

In addition, the current climate in the northern hemisphere is "perfect" for the rapid spread of the virus. The first is air temperature. Viruses transmitted through the respiratory tract are particularly active at low temperatures: "The virus is more stable at lower temperatures. It's like food can be stored longer in the refrigerator."

For many viruses, the better the temperature, the worse the day. "The new coronavirus is surrounded by a lipid layer," Pitzman said. The lipid layer is not particularly heat-resistant, so the virus is killed soon after the temperature rises.

Humidity also plays a major role in the infectivity of respiratory viruses. Pathogens float out of the air after being sneezed violently. "Compared to high-humidity environments, in most drier cold winter days, small droplets with viruses stay in the air for longer," Pitzman said.

In addition, infection with the virus is not only related to age and health, but also depends on gender. Estrogen can also help women fight off the virus.

"There are genetic reasons for this, because some genes related to the immune system, such as those responsible for identifying pathogens, are encoded on the X chromosome." Because women have two X chromosomes, There is only one male, so women obviously have an advantage in this regard.

The Voice of Germany specifically mentioned that perhaps when the northern hemisphere spring blooms, the new crown epidemic will really end. However, according to the WHO, at least 20 new crown cases have been detected in Australia, and Brazil has also. Both countries are in the southern hemisphere. The winter there has not yet begun.

https://www.dwnews.com/%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83/60170698/%E5%86%B7%E7%83%AD%E5%B9%B2%E6%B9%BF%E6%96%B0%E5%86%A0%E7%97%85%E6%AF%92%E5%88%B0%E5%BA%95%E6%80%95%E4%BB%80%E4%B9%88%E5%BE%B7%E5%9B%BD%E5%8C%BB%E5%AD%A6%E4%B8%93%E5%AE%B6%E7%AD%94%E7%96%91%E8%A7%A3%E6%83%91

[sharon sanders]

There was a question about emergency powers acts that the federal government and state governments can declare. In general, these emergency powers allow the federal and state governments to do almost anything they want. Most likely all of us in the US will be subjected to the laws in each state. In Florida, as far as health care workers are concerned, there is a law that would allow for the reactivation of inactive licenses for 90 days. As far as I can see, in my opinion, health care workers in Florida can not be ordered to work against their will. I think, by law, the health care workers that can be required to work are in the armed forces or state guards. I am not an attorney and I am not giving legal advice.

The law in each state might be slightly different so if this is a question for you, please look at your state's laws about emergency powers.

http://www.leg.state.fl.us/statutes/index.cfm?App_mode=Display_Statute&URL=0300-0399/0381/0381.html

[JJackson]

Here is a little maths problem for you. You will need two numbers 1] Your country's population (in 10s of millions) and 2] How many new cases/day it is reporting (go with a average over a few days). Now divide cases by pop to get your answer.
So if your population is 100m and you are reporting 2 cases a day then 2/10 = 0.2.
Now you know your score how do you compare to others.
For S. Korea 600/5 = 120
Singapore 3/0.6 = 5, Iran 80, Italy 50.
What about China? Which is still the country you are most likely to get asked about at the airport.
China (exc Hubei) 0.1
China (All) 1.4
Hubei 55

Taking daily data (or averages over a short time) is not a very reliable measure but when cases are exploding it is all we have, but it will give an indication of likely disease burden on your health system and how risky contacts with other citizens are. This data also explains why China is taking the same measures, on some outside countries, as they had been applying to China.
Edit
For countries outside China (with rapidly changing numbers) I used the average from the last 3 WHO situation reports, for China (which is fairly stable or slowly falling) I used a 7 day average. Note also that China is dealing with 200 case a day while it had been coping with 2000 so should have no capacity problems and should not be missing much. Iran, on the other hand, has a far higher number of deaths than you would expect implying it has been suffering more community transmission, and for a longer time, than its reported numbers show so its score of 80 is probably an underestimate.

[Pathfinder]

Censored Contagion
How Information on the Coronavirus is Managed on Chinese Social Media

By Lotus Ruan, Jeffrey Knockel, and Masashi Crete-Nishihata
March 3, 2020Key Findings

• YY, a live-streaming platform in China, began to censor keywords related to the coronavirus outbreak on December 31, 2019, a day after doctors (including the late Dr. Li Wenliang) tried to warn the public about the then unknown virus.
• WeChat broadly censored coronavirus-related content (including critical and neutral information) and expanded the scope of censorship in February 2020. Censored content included criticism of government, rumours and speculative information on the epidemic, references to Dr. Li Wenliang, and neutral references to Chinese government efforts on handling the outbreak that had been reported on state media.
• Many of the censorship rules are broad and effectively block messages that include names for the virus or sources for information about it. Such rules may restrict vital communication related to disease information and prevention.

...
https://citizenlab.ca/2020/03/censor...-social-media/

[Missouriwatcher]

CATO Institute of Health figures 0.46% CFR or possibly less https://www.cato.org/blog/misleading...19-death-rates

James Hamblin reported in The Atlantic Health (Feb 25) that according to Marc Lipsitch, Professor of Epidemiology Harvard, he is predicting that within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/a...accine/607000/

WorldOMeter estimates world population at nearly 8 billion.

Based on above, this might indicate that by year's end potentially we could have 3 - 5.5 billion people at various stages of COVID-19.
If CFR is .46% would this mean that potentially by year's end there could be nearly 14 to 25 million worldwide deaths if COVID-19 is not contained?

[Emily]

There's an interview with an NY infectious disease/ER doctor in this video. He thinks CFR would be close to your number, Missouriwatcher (.2 to .4 I think I remember). That was based on S. Korea numbers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wg_OTTzUv8

But S. Korea had that devastating church spread. Maybe that is why the range. Possibly an effective antiviral will be found, or supportive treatment so it is hard to predict. If we could quickly institute good biosecurity for nursing homes, rehab centers, etc, in parts of the US that haven't been hit yet I think our death toll would be lower this year.