Researchers say the coronavirus may be more contagious than current data shows
PUBLISHED TUE, FEB 4 20203:06 PM ESTUPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
Berkeley Lovelace Jr.@BERKELEYJR
KEY POINTS
Chinese scientists worry the respiratory illness, which world health officials say likely came from a fish market, has mutated to adapt to its new human hosts far more quickly than SARS. Data on the virus is changing by the day, and some infectious disease specialists say it will take weeks before they can see just how contagious it is. What they’re seeing so far is concerning and leading U.S. and international scientists to believe the virus is more contagious than the current data shows, according to interviews with epidemiologists, scientists and infectious disease specialists.
...Additionally, the virus’s current transmission number may be underestimated by scientists who currently have very limited data, according to Huang. While the new virus appears to be less lethal than the 2003 SARS outbreak, which sickened 8,098 people and killed almost 800 over nine months, it is spreading significantly faster. It took the new virus less than a month to surpass the number of SARS cases.
“A relatively mild virus can cause a lot of damage if a lot of people get it,” WHO’s Ryan said last week. “And this is the issue at the moment. We don’t fully understand it.”
Researchers from Lancaster University in England estimated the virus’s R naught may be closer to 3.1, saying “current clinical and epidemiological data are insufficient to understa...https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/rese...ata-shows.html
PUBLISHED TUE, FEB 4 20203:06 PM ESTUPDATED 2 HOURS AGO
Berkeley Lovelace Jr.@BERKELEYJR
- The so-called R naught of the disease, a mathematical equation that shows how many people will get sick from each infected person, is around 2.2.
- World health officials caution that it may take months before the true R naught is known as more coronavirus cases come to light.
- China’s health minister, Ma Xiaowei, recently told reporters there is evidence it’s already mutated into a stronger variation that is able to spread more easily among humans.
Chinese scientists worry the respiratory illness, which world health officials say likely came from a fish market, has mutated to adapt to its new human hosts far more quickly than SARS. Data on the virus is changing by the day, and some infectious disease specialists say it will take weeks before they can see just how contagious it is. What they’re seeing so far is concerning and leading U.S. and international scientists to believe the virus is more contagious than the current data shows, according to interviews with epidemiologists, scientists and infectious disease specialists.
...Additionally, the virus’s current transmission number may be underestimated by scientists who currently have very limited data, according to Huang. While the new virus appears to be less lethal than the 2003 SARS outbreak, which sickened 8,098 people and killed almost 800 over nine months, it is spreading significantly faster. It took the new virus less than a month to surpass the number of SARS cases.
“A relatively mild virus can cause a lot of damage if a lot of people get it,” WHO’s Ryan said last week. “And this is the issue at the moment. We don’t fully understand it.”
Researchers from Lancaster University in England estimated the virus’s R naught may be closer to 3.1, saying “current clinical and epidemiological data are insufficient to understa...https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/04/rese...ata-shows.html
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