Gold - Feb 9, 2007 to Mar 16, 2008

[Laidback Al]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

I think it all depends on how quickly the world economic system descends from an interconnected, JIT, market-based system to extremely localized, isolated pockets of commerce based solely on barter and the local definition of store of value. Fortunes will be made, lost, remade, and perhaps traded for a package of toilet paper or a can of beans. To me it is just a question of how far we descend into chaos and how quickly it occurs once we have a perceived, immediate, world-wide crisis.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Laidback Al, we here know the rate of transmission. We don't need WHO to tell us anything. Opinion aside, you're right.

But holding a pile of Fl1 USD's when the situation spins faster out of control is IMO a great insurance policy but it's no way to assure a store of value. They'll burn the paper if it gets out of hand.

In Florida or where cords of wood are needed, when it gets cold, fiat will be worth its way in fatwood.

 

[Binkerbear]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

:applause: LA & :applause: GR - but GR, please don't say you "want the rewards" - I don't want to see you get banned again. It should be you "want to preserve your meager savings after a lifetime of toil and labor". And please don't call anyone "unteachable" - this is a world-class forum thanks to F1 - she just leans toward the 1929 scenario while you and I skew to the Wiemar Republic.

 

[Binkerbear]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Found this from Richard Russell:

In previous bear markets I parked my money in T-bills. This time, because of different circumstances, I'm parked very heavily in gold. This time a growling bear finds the US and its citizens loaded with debt. This time the bear finds the US housing industry in rotten shape. This time there are questions about the stability and the very viability of the dollar. For those reasons, I've moved heavily into the most trustworthy of the world's "reserve" currencies. That currency is the one they call gold.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

:applause: LA & :applause: GR - but GR, please don't say you "want the rewards" - I don't want to see you get banned again. It should be you "want to preserve your meager savings after a lifetime of toil and labor". And please don't call anyone "unteachable" - this is a world-class forum thanks to F1 - she just leans toward the 1929 scenario while you and I skew to the Wiemar Republic.

I'll reiterate. I want the rewards, and I'll keep my unfortunately all too meager savings of a lifetime too. When this place falls apart, it's not about service. It's about survival. The power will shift, Bink. Standing there playing dunce is a stupid position. The greedy power holders economic and political deserve for what they've brought us to date their deserts. So do I, and so does everyone. It's a capitalist society. So, I'm being a good citizen and going for the gold, 'er, I mean the lucre.

As to teachability, there are differing views. Those holding the real estate albatross, the stock and 401K fund albatross, the bond and bond fund albatross, the savings account albatross, all of those...are not teachable. Those holding gold and silver, consumable commodities that we humans must consume...those people are teachable.

It's a simple lesson. The store of value changes. Richard Russell just said the same thing. Bink, at this time, RR and I see things the same way and pretty much at the same time. I'm ahead of him in the market decline call. I called the top 2 days after it happened, over at globaleconomics.blogspot.com He called a bear market. The game is in play now, not later, now, and it's the 3rd inning. The rest will be all homeruns for my team and more birds for the albatross team.

Bink, they won't listen, any more than they would when we said Level 6 at a CFR very probably at the Vietnamese rate. Their response? Bah. Humbug.

And when they get weakened economically, it's zie gehsundt. And you know what, another yet unsettled theory, Darwin's, tells us they're gone, and you know what else? It's ok. That's how nature clears itself of the less valuable to its then current needs, if one believes evolution is not purely random but heavily influenced by the genetic material then in existence and which comes in contact with the new....very much like recombination.

As I said, they won't learn, but they will become unempowered when the truth is out, and that's the same thing as their losing out. That's kewl and appropriate.

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

:applause: LA & :applause: GR - but GR, please don't say you "want the rewards" - I don't want to see you get banned again. It should be you "want to preserve your meager savings after a lifetime of toil and labor". And please don't call anyone "unteachable" - this is a world-class forum thanks to F1 - she just leans toward the 1929 scenario while you and I skew to the Wiemar Republic.

Don't worry Bink, I have been called much worse things.

Recently, as a matter of fact.


Anyway, GR is trying to bait me to really TEACH HIM a few things on this thread.


Wait - where is that ruler I had?.....

 

[Binkerbear]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Thank you, F1. Please smack him hard with the ruler but please don't ban him again. After some of his posts from years ago involving flu-related home medical care (involving some sort of plunger tool ?), I think he might like it.

F1, have we been granted more leeway here ? If so, go for it GR. Of course, even I might get upset at "free money comin' to momma and poppa while the masses starve".

On another note:
GR - how do you reconcile these statements ?

1. "RR and I see things the same way" -GR
2. "During a panic, the USD will be very attractive" - GR

I think you should just go ahead and disclaim statement # 2. :surrender:

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

[snip]

go for it GR. [snip]

OK.

You asked how it reconciles. Fiat is local. You and I don't pay in Euro or Yap Stones. So, when pandemic hits, people will not think their government is about to get shaken to the core. So, people will cleave to their local currency, and some smarter foreigners will spread risk and buy USD's. Fiat is where it's at, and isn't where it's at.

We have a problem, Houston. The public won't know the details because WHO is political and won't be able to tell the truth. They certainly won't draw conclusions. That's really serious for those making real plans. Remember, I said it here first.

WHO WILL NOT DRAW CONCLUSIONS FROM THE FACTS.

That will influence the direction of gold, and drive it straight up because the public despises being kept in the dark. They get fearful and they react intensely. This is a profit center for anyone who truly believes it. And I do believe.

Those who dash to cash will be reckless because the virus will be circulating at Level 6 BEFORE WHO declares Level 6. Got that point??

For an investor, this is a godsend. Their delay is a tradeable opportunity. Thank you WHO for being so responsibly conservative.

This is the trading gift, WHO WILL NOT DRAW CONCLUSIONS FROM THE FACTS.

Think about what that means.

(As an aside, China just announced their recent father/son infections were H2H, without the magical need to refer to chickens; in fact China says, "no poultry" can be found in this case.)

Bink, I would very much appreciate your input and Laidback Al's and anyone else who is a serious student of the markets to focus on this moment in time, when you and I know H5N1 is on the loose, clustering and expanding exponentially in some locality in the world. That's when what we have figured out will come into play. I want to be ready to seize that moment. It's my time and your time. We figured it out. It belongs to us, and any who are able to believe us. Trust me that most everyone will not believe what we're doing and thinking. There's a guy named Stan at effectmeasure who believes there's no change in H5N1's transmission rate year over year. And he thinks about this stuff. And there are many doubters. So, the cookie belongs to us, as much of it as we dare take for ourselves. I plan to take as much as possible, risking at least 1/2 if not 3/4 of all that I control, to pull in millions and if possible tens of millions. That money will be redistributed, and I am more entitled to it than anyone else, period, bar none. If I could make billions, I would. As soon as it's understood, JSixPack will be trying to get that money too. So, I claim it for the thinkers here, and the Stans of the world can reach their conclusions when they may. So, Hello Out There. It's time to start the thinking process, now.

 

[Binkerbear]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

GR I think that you are saying that the rush into dollars will be a temporary knee-jerk event so I won't argue with that. IOW, it's like "I'm gonna go get some TP, some canned tuna, a little bottled water, and some cash cause of this bird-flu thing" event.

Now I understand; sorry that I belabored it. Yes, I'll be withdrawing from my ATM which is one of many items on my 'prep' list.

As to gold, I missed another buying opp at 8:00 this AM - down $12 and now back up - boy, you've got to be nimble when this trend is parabolically up. Prominent commodities guru Dennis Gartman took off half his position yesterday and it was announced on CNBC during 'Fast Money' - that may have been the reason for the down-spike. Note: he remains a long-term bull.

As far as the second point, since you know I have no interest in or understanding of the science, I do feel 99% confident that the market will give a 'level 6' warning long before WHO. To me, it's as simple as watching the stock ticker on CNBC (ie, NVAX up 10 % on no news in a big down market).

 

[yielddude]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

I know this is a gold thread, but would you also be buying reverse ETF's, betting that the general market will go down (hard). I have some QID (bets Nasdaq down), DXD (bets against Dow30), SDD (against smallcap400), and SRS (bets against real estate). Also, these are ultra-shorts, so they double any moves by the mirrored index).

Also, if you're buying gold related stocks, which are you buying, or are you sticking to strictly holding bullion?

yield

 

[Binkerbear]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Yes, yes, and yes to all of the above yielddude plus TWM - ultra-short the Russell small-caps. IMO, yes also to the gold stocks; I think Goldman-Sachs just recommended them. Another safe long would be FXF (the Swiss currency). Last, but not least, short the dollar (once called a 'drunken whore' by a well-known participant here ) with symbol UDN. How about shorting the retail sector with RTH ? I don't think mall traffic will be holding up too well in a pandemic (understatement). In fact, I would guess that they'll first be closed, second looted, and thirdly set ablaze.

I did start a thread a while back called 'stock trades for asset protection' but no one ever posted. Way, way back we had all sorts of discussion about this stuff but I don't know if it's worth trying to find. You're certainly off to a great start if you think a pandemic is on the way. Even without one, things may now be headed in that direction. My favorite planned short back then was Coach (women's very high-priced handbags) but too late now; it has already cratered. Even some low-end retail like FDO is tanking which you would normally think would do well in a recession. And to top it all off - gold going up in a recession ? That's gotta be strange to the financial community.

Forgot: My favorite gold stock is GG (Goldcorp) because it's close by in Canada. I wouldn't want to own one in Swaziland or Nigeria, etc.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Sinclair says gold to 1050 and then to 1600.

Guys like Stan believe nothing is predictable. OK, for Stan, nothing is predictable. Now, that guy, Stan, and the guy who thinks that anyone strident is doing a disservice to those like that guy because we (and I'm one of them) are frightening the bureaucrats.

It's a joke. And they and the bureaucrats are the joke. This disease has no new limitation due to their silence or my stridency...none whatsoever.

For those who choose not to see the elephant in the living room, well, they should be noted, identified, and later fired.

For those who choose to see an elephant when there isn't one there and when one doesn't appear promptly, well, they should be noted, identified, and avoided.

And for those who choose to see an elephant and who predict where it's going, and then the elephant shows up where those people predict, well, they should be noted, identified, and consulted.

But who decides? When it comes to gold, who decides if what I said was valid?

The answer is obvious. Gold decides. The price, reflecting the people who are acquiring it and shorting it, yes that price, decides. And the rest who have spoken their positions are completely irrelevant.

Bink, because you're looking for small money, you are missing the move. I can't change your focus, scalping small money. But I can comment on it.

Gold has a gap, a breakaway gap, at 865-872, roughly, and that gap will very probably get filled.

Sinclair thinks from what I see, that it will be higher.

What I have said before is that gold is increasing its trading range, today being $27, one of the largest movements from low to high in a single day in decades. Well, gold will be moving $50 a day and soon more. So, a drop back to the mid 800's will come about swiftly, in a few days, claiming all those who are entering now, imo.

But later, when it bounces within a few hours, filling the gap, people will be so frightened, they won't be able to go long. It's how humans are. And the reason, just like Stan, they don't know what's happening.

OK, there are those who insist nobody can know what's happening, and they are extremely dangerous people, and there are those who have strong views of what's happening, and they too are dangerous (remember all those who thought houses wouldn't fall in price, or didn't know, or argued there's a shortage of land and houses?...wrong, all of them, and soon to be heavily taxed and many terminated from their dwellings, and so it should be). And there are those who think the middle, the self-inflating, empowering middle, is the right place, and they will be diminished because no matter where they are invested, they're wrong because deflation and inflation will whipsaw their investment stores of value, leaving them impoverished, with maybe a stack of Citibank type shares, soon to be gutted further (like Countrywide's now at $7.50, down from $40 and $50).

yielddude, I don't want to reply to you, but I do think you're a smart cookie, if you can withstand the murderous swings, like that of today. I think the equity markets will soon begin their terror-packed drop to 10900 and then much further down; so, I think your bet is correct. But I don't want to promote anything but the concept of gold. I do warn you that if you purchase a stock that has a derivatives put to sell, which is a call by the other side, at lower prices, that company will become insolvent due to rising extraction prices. But whadda I know? By not knowing, you can get clobbered. For help, go read www.jsmineset.com. And for stock advice, there are a few guys at www.calculatedrisk.blogspot.com who really know what they're talking about, and, there are fewer at www.globaleconomics.blogspot.com.

Just look at what's happening and seriously, profoundly appreciate that this is not even 20% of what will happen during the pandemic. The fear will be breathtaking and the ignorance, courtesy of those who were supposed to tell us, will be even more dangerous.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Bink, based on today's gold action, is Gartman even worth listening to? I think a bird has more sense than that man. Television personalities are just that. Stay far away from their palaver. If you're scalping pennies, then you allow that ilk to reach your eyes and ears. I don't know who he is; I don't even own a TV, so I don't let those rotten thinkers near my thought processes. What do you think?

You know that today on the radio, for some reason I was in the car, on CBS radio there was mention of witchdoctors in Benin who were sacrificing chickens to stop the spread of bird flu and when asked about being sprayed by the blood, they said their voodoo would protect them. That's Gartman. Turn away from insanity, early and often.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Bink, it's like Sinclair said, 1050 and then drop back. I think anything over 1000, like 1010, is a great place to exit, for the traders.

The gap will be sought after the stops are captured at 1000. The 1050 would be the "safe" buy stop; so that's where the market will go, grab the weak hands trying to be conservative and catch the real rally, ha ha, and then drag them back 100-150 pts. Then, after mauling them, the market will move quickly back to 1000 for another test, and then bye bye to the dollar. This means big price rises as the USD will be going to the mat, with people like Fl1 in it, hoping to catch that Level 6 bounceem

 

[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-01/10/content_7399790.htm

BEIJING, Jan. 10 -- Gold futures trading made a strong debut on Wednesday. Analysts believe the gold futures can play a significant role as a hedging mechanism and a speculative instrument in the market.

Minutes after trading started at 9 am on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, gold futures contracts surged to the daily 10 percent limit.
The key contract for June delivery was the first to rocket as it climbed 9.98 percent to 230.95 yuan per gram, before closing at 223.3 yuan for the day. Contracts for July-to-December delivery also quickly reached their daily limit rise.
The total turnover of the seven contracts registered at over 27 billion yuan in the first day of trading, reflecting huge market enthusiasm. But the contract size was set at 1,000 grams, much bigger than the originally expected 300 grams.
Analysts say this is to discourage individual investors, who do not have the capacity to take the necessary risks. But they say gold futures will be a useful tool for institutions to hedge against price fluctuations.
China was the world's third largest gold producer in 2006 after South Africa and the United States, with consumption in the manufacturing sector accounting for 9.2 percent of the global total. China Securities Regulatory Commission chairman Shang Fulin said gold futures would improve the country's domestic gold market and pricing mechanism. He said it would provide options for financial institutions, gold producers and consumers to protect against market risk, and further develop the nascent futures industry.
(Source: CCTV.com)
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="50%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=15></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=hei12 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="90%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=right height=25>Editor: Gao Ying </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="80%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=15></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=lan13 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dbddde><TD colSpan=2 height=1></TD></TR><TR><TD width=15 background=http://imgs.xinhuanet.com/icon/2006english/2007xl/bj.jpg bgColor=#eeeeee height=25></TD><TD background=http://imgs.xinhuanet.com/icon/2006english/2007xl/bj.jpg bgColor=#eeeeee height=28>Related Stories </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#dbddde><TD colSpan=2 height=1></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="50%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD height=8></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="98%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><TABLE class=lan_12 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="95%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width=10 height=5></TD><TD width=310></TD></TR><TR><TD class=hei12 align=middle width=15 height=25>

</TD><TD>Options for Chinese domestic gold investors before futures launch</TD></TR><TR><TD class=hei12 align=middle width=15 height=25>

</TD><TD>Gold futures jump to daily limit upon debut</TD></TR><TR><TD class=hei12 align=middle width=15 height=25>

</TD><TD>Funds send gold futures to record high</TD></TR><TR><TD class=hei12 align=middle width=15 height=25>

</TD><TD>China's gold futures surge to daily limit</TD></TR><TR><TD class=hei12 align=middle width=15 height=25>

</TD><TD>Gold futures make strong debut </TD></TR><TR><TD width=10 height=5></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Binkerbear]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

GR - Gartman trades in and out; you always take off half a position when it gets overextended but he remains a long-term gold bull. He's probably already back in after the quick drop. Otherwise, he might admit that he jumped out too soon. His experience dates back to the 70's and he's very respected meaning that he's got a good track record.

Still holding steady in Asia tonight. It's a juggernaut.

juggernaut - any literal or metaphorical force regarded as unstoppable that will crush all in its path

As to short-term trading, 'looking for small money', voodoo charts - I agree that that has no place on this forum so I'm okay with not dicussing it further. [ I'm interested in it (much like a hobby) but I don't really believe in it much and I don't do much of it. You will typically lose no matter how smart you are and I'm not even smart.]

The long and short: For people who think a pandemic is on the way, you must have some position in gold. If you think other disasters are on the way (climate, terror, political), you must own some gold. And - if you think things are just going to plod along as usual and that nothing is going to change very much, then you really better buy some gold - just look at that national debt growing by leaps and bounds every day.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

I'd just like the record to reflect that most people will be unable to purchase gold during the pandemic, and when motivated will have found the price to be so "high" in their minds that they won't allow themselves to do so.

The gold price will reach $1500-2000-3000, and relatively shortly. It's obvious, as it was 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, 4 years, 5 years ago. But then, the price movement from $250 or $450 was viewed as absurd and impossible to those who yet have not acted, who've hemmed and hawed, just the way they probably have not even begun to prepare for pandemic flu.

Now, with gold at $900+ spot, $1500 is merely 60% up, and $2000 is just about a doubling of price. Stocks in the equity markets make these moves all the time.
The numbers "sound" large, but they're nothing. And when compared with the old days, when gold was "free" as it was so cheap, the rise is amazing.

People who are incapable of risk are incapable of risk. When pandemia comes, they will have been incapable of the "risk" associated with preparation because after all it may not happen at all or during another time cycle.

And those who miss out deserve exactly what they get. They took the risk of being conservative, of being balanced portfolio'd by people just like themselves. In the credit and mortgage implosion now under way, there are senior corporate officers who are almost to a one saying, "We could never have predicted this". Of course it's a lie. How else can they justify their failure to have accepted the calls from the dozens and hundreds in the past who saw this coming and spoke aggressively in the blogs about this? Those not taking risk depended on the staid, UBS, Citi, Merrill, etc, etc, to lead them conservatively. One doesn't need to state the message. It's obvious.

And as to gold, one doesn't need to state the message. It's obvious.

Expect a reaction, but only after the panic in moves the price to the happy round number of $1000. Gaps now at $865-872.50, and today $897.50 to?? as the NY spot market just opened at $910 and traded already to $906.50.

Gold has spoken. Those who opposed it should be listed, tarred, feathered, and run out of town on a rail. List'em here.

I'll start: Goldman Sachs. And here's your lesson. GS is in biz to serve GS only. So, when they give "free advise" by way of estimated price in the future, remember they are not helping the public, they are deceiving the public so they can take large positions that are in reverse of what they announce. They serve GS; they are not a public service. One month ago, GS estimated gold will drop from $860 to $800 or $750 area. They lied and they knew it. And we who watch and discuss the market as a group said they did so. It requires an understanding to see the lie and say it.

And like the National Realtors Association who said "Now is a good time to buy" and "RE prices don't go down", the public who refuse to think for themselves, received what they deserved, and will receive and receive as the NRA and now GS have given the gifts that keep on giving.

Not owning gold is like being heavily invested in RE at this time. Good for you. Your position will be vindicated long after you're no longer a player on the economic stage.

And when bird flu becomes sustainingly transmissible, and you decided to cheat by indulging yourself instead of taking that last full measure of prep effort, guess what... you won't be the one holding the power over your own lives, yet again.

Isn't there a point in time when enough is enough? Idiot savant is for the next guy, not for me or you.

Gold will probably scream up to $1000 and the A_'s of this world will still say, "I have no public position." Broke is broke. Of course there is no position, except that in a soup kitchen line, and during pandemia, that's the end of the line for those folks.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Doesn't the misrepresentation by the mainstream "leaders" like Goldman Sachs remind you of what's going on in bird flu? Can you think of analogies in the world of flu? The consequences vis a vis gold are easy to understand. What about the consequences vis a vis pandemia?

Where's Mr. Tar?
Where's Mrs. Feather?

 

[Binkerbear]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

:applause: Excellent post, GR. I was thinking just the same thing when I saw the overnight move in gold this morning. It goes against all normal human instinct to buy after you've already missed the move. The "bliss ninnies" should have bought long ago. If they didn't buy then, they certainly won't buy now.

There will, as we have said over and over, a time when they finally will buy and that is when gold has reached the top and lands on the cover of all national magazines. It's funny that is hasn't generated much publicity after outperforming most asset classes over the past five years. That was, and continues to be, the "buy" signal - the lack of hype.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

The gold gap today was from 897.50 to 901.50. I think this is an exhaustion gap. I expect 1 or 2 more days in this range, and then gold may, and I think should retreat to 865, to close the gap. A 100 fall is quite normal, and will hurt the greedy late entrants who in turn will release their grip on gold, and then...then gold will rise quickly to 1000. And there, again, the "battle royale" will be fought, using Jim Sinclair's words.

Thx Bink. This is opportunity #1. All this fear about hedge funds dumping gold to get cash...malarky. The hedge funds will be bankrupted by what they hold...good bye to them and their unethical managers, pigmen to the last one. How they can be bankrupted personally is a much hoped for event. If they've taken enough from the table, it won't happen, but one can hope. Maybe prison on a technicality, especially during pandemia? That will be a suitable payback.

If one doesn't buy if gold drops into the mid and low 800's, both times, then let the naive, economic immune system take its toll.

But if you cannot wrap around your mind that this is your decision and you must own it and you must bite the bitter pill when there is a pullback, you'll drop the position like a hot potato and now merely transfer your assets to others. Don't do a thing that you yourself will not stand there and say, I own all that comes, good and bad, like buying a spouse.