Gold - Feb 9, 2007 to Mar 16, 2008

[Carter]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Gold is for a flight to safety.....a precursor for any world calamity including a pandemic.

Overview: Risk aversion prompts flight to safety

By Dave Shellock
Friday Dec 28 2007 12:45
Any investors hoping for a quiet end to 2007 were given a severe jolt this week by the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the leader of one of Pakistan's main opposition parties.

The killing of Ms Bhutto - who was widely seen as the lynchpin of US hopes to bring stability to the nuclear-armed country - prompted a knee-jerk flight to the perceived safety of gold and Treasury bonds and a sell-off in US equities. The oil price moved to within easy striking distance of the crucial $100 a barrel level.

Wall Street staged a modest recovery yesterday although the gains were tempered by further grim news on the US housing market.....

http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft?news_id=fto122820071255070061

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Welcome to the forum Christophe.

.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Christophe, if I may... one word to the lay public. Never believe what general news writers publish.

China just announced it will host a trading market in gold futures. That was on Friday. Expansion of the market will have expected outcomes favorable to gold.

This idea that fear causes investors to flee to gold is pretty much unproven. Fear causing a run to US Treasury instruments is true; but this has been occurring for a long time. The credit squeeze is causing this.

I don't "buy" cheapshot news articles as being "real".

Here's a question to you. On the day after the assassination, gold rose only slightly. Where was the panic? On the next day, the day China announced it will expand trading access to gold, the price jumped significantly.

"Investors" will soon be parted from their stores of value if they act as this reporter wants us to believe, in a kneejerk response.

Food for thought.

Of course, as the direction is favorable to my view of reality, I'm all for the rise in the price of gold.

 

[Amish Country]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Hey GR how about a little background for the investment challenged? When you are talking about investing in or "buying gold" are you taking about:

Buying Krugerrands or other gold coins

Stock in gold mines or holding companies

Shares in mutual funds specializing in gold and other precious metals

Gold certificates

All of the above

Other

During civil unrest and economic uncertainty a piece of paper is still a piece of paper. A gold coin however is something tangible.

 

[Binkerbear]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

It's great to have you back, GR. :applause:

Did you notice that the day previous to the assassination that gold made a huge move ? CNBC people even remarked 'do you think someone knew something ?'

I mention this only to give credence to my theory that NVAX and others should spike (and EEM & FXI and many others should fall) previous to an efficient pandemic beginning.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Hi Bink. Thx for your kind words.

Christophe, if I may help one bit more. Today, gold just sold off from 843 spot high to 831 now. Apologies for the cynacism, but maybe it's because the exhumation of Bhutto's remains will or will not take place and she's not dead yet or some other shallow mindless palaver?

If it were as the MSM said, then why the drop? Profit taking? And if so, then this is a great example for you to sell the news in this case about 60 hours after the event is announced, or else your profits will vaporize.

I'd be concerned about gold prices if there was news of an attempt to lasso an asteroid and bring it back to earth. That would be news. Otherwise, we're stuck with what we're stuck with, the geopolitical, economic game as it plays this time in real time.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Amish Country,

The best source for info on gold that I've found on the net is
www.jsmineset.com

Jim Sinclair is wealthy and old enough to want to do something good with his life. He further is proving to himself via his public positions that he's not to be derided. It's terrific for those who read his positions.

He's pointed out that many junior equities are involved in derivative plays, having sold forward production at a fixed price now dwarfed by the current mkt.
Those are explosions waiting to occur. We've seen some. Major equity dilutions as management screws the public for managements mistakes.

For purposes of pandemia, the investment strategy is duofold when it comes to PM (precious metal). Stashes of real gold coins...primary, and as much as one can squirrel away. ETF's (exchange traded funds)...more gold, this time in the form of market shares. And that's it.

Re Coins. Remember to tell someone or write down where they are; so if the big bird of flu or a truck hit you, someone you like can retrieve the stuff. And Sinclair is quite freaked that the economic system can collapse; so he says "Never leave your coins at the dealer". If you can't safekeep them, don't become their custodian.

This forum is not about which PM vehicle to use to make money. If it were, it would be a kitco.com or any of the PM or gold blogs. I won't go there, here, or frankly with anyone as I'm a student there, not a teacher.

Sinclair has it nailed best, imo. The charts of stocks are there too. So, it's a one stop shop.

 

[Binkerbear]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

First day of the New Year - gold up big and market down big. Not a great omen for '08.
Those two directions just extended sharply in the last few minutes.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Bink, you think ** is still waiting for his buying opportunity in gold?
For everyone else, nobody at this time has a loss save those who bought on one day in 1980 and during a few hour window on that day.

The buyers who came in at $550 level, and they're here, have nothing to do but wait for the shoe truck to dump the rest of them, pushing gold to $1600-$3000, a mere 100% to 350% up.

Or they could be believers and own those 2nd homes and bonds that are looking so...what's the word???

 

[Binkerbear]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

I had forgotten all about **. It would be funny to post something over there reminding him of that long-ago controversy and how he still remains dead wrong on this subject ...and will no doubt continue to be dead wrong. How about I post this and see if he remembers:

**, you are a "bliss ninny" headed for "hyperinflationary hell" where you will soon become "economically inconsolate" living with your "drunken whore (the U.S. dollar)" which will soon be buried in a "dollar coffin" sealed shut with a "sack of silver nails" ...

...while GR sits "clucking quietly in the corner" 'cause he's got "free money comin' to mama and poppa". :tiphat:

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Who would ever pen a comment like that?! For shame for being so arrogant 2 years ago.

Maybe he'll post a picture of himself laden down with his albatross investment portfolio?

When things are bad, folks, the idea is not "balanced portfolio". If you hear someone say that, bow out quickly and note there's a disconnect between reality and their desired beliefs.

In a pandemic, fear will sweep the streets. If you want to acquire anything, you better have something the seller really wants. Of course, there are always guns, but I am not a proponent of self help.

No matter what those who are now in the luxury of not experiencing may say, "gee, nobody will want gold; they can't eat it", you thank them profusely for staying on the sidelines and out of your acquisitional way.

There will be a correction, probably to 830 as there's a gap today in NY Spot Gold. However, if you think you're playing for dollars or tens, you're really playing Russian Roulette with your economic safety.

I'll be buried under the same rock as you will be, and afterwards, I'll take whatever makes sense from those who will trade their dead child's clothing for the needs they have then. The Pharoah traded the captivity of tens of thousands of Jews for relief from the plague. Don't think less politically connected won't trade that and more.

Sit on it. Forget about it. Go on with your preparatory lives.

 

[DRJJ]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Welcome Back Guadia Ray:

I missed you these many months, but I didn't stop squirrling away.

Welcome back

 

[Binkerbear]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

GR puts the "fun" back into the "flu".
If I get infected, I'll go back and read his posts to make me laugh, get happy, and get well. GR is like an elderberry tonic on steroids.

On a serious note, gold and particularly gold mining stocks had an absolutely huge up day (7 - 10%) on the first trading day of '08 while the flu-techs were down. Something is going on but I'm not sure what ...although whatever it is, it is not good. As Dennis Gartman said on 'Fast Money' tonight, the long-term gold chart is moving from lower left to upper right - Do not fight that trend. ** must be losing his purchasing power fast. I may have to drop my 'Binkerthebear' id for 'purchasingpower' ...point being - inflation or deflation - gold will preserve it.

 

[JohnW]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

GR puts the "fun" back into the "flu".
If I get infected, I'll go back and read his posts to make me laugh, get happy, and get well. GR is like an elderberry tonic on steroids.

On a serious note, gold and particularly gold mining stocks had an absolutely huge up day (7 - 10%) on the first trading day of '08 while the flu-techs were down. Something is going on but I'm not sure what ...although whatever it is, it is not good. As Dennis Gartman said on 'Fast Money' tonight, the long-term gold chart is moving from lower left to upper right - Do not fight that trend. ** must be losing his purchasing power fast. I may have to drop my 'Binkerthebear' id for 'purchasingpower' ...point being - inflation or deflation - gold will preserve it.

I'm nervous too! After looking at the prospect for the new year, on Dec. 31st I cashed out 2/3 of my retirement (I'm 60) and paid off my primary mortgage on the farm. Figured owning the farm was more important than trying to stay in the market for retirement 10 years away. Depending on how things trend, I may cash out some more to pay off the second, smaller mortgage. (I'm 2/3 in money market in retirement at this point, and I don't even trust MM at this point!)

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Your "farm" is a single piece of property on this planet. It's not a medium of exchange, and it's a store of value as long as it yields salable food.

B--The breakaway gap in the spot 835-845 range must be watched. This market is moving swiftly up, and like 2 years ago, the pigs will be jumping in shortly, as in "today", and over the next few days.

Sinclair says resistance is at 887 area. For the trading account at ishares, I'll sell off half the position at that happy number and buy back that 1/2 at 840.

The Egyptian tamiflu resistance NOW should be a giant heads up regarding the value of anything besides gold and comestibles, personables.

I don't get it. The public is waiting for the game to have started before prepping. How "public" of them.

 

[JohnW]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Your "farm" is a single piece of property on this planet. It's not a medium of exchange, and it's a store of value as long as it yields salable food.

I find gold to be indigestible, no matter how it grows.

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

I find gold to be indigestible, no matter how it grows.

JohnW and other readers -

History is always informative regarding gold.

Review some of these past threads for various opinions and observations regarding gold, economics, and an impending pandemic.

Profiting during a pandemic ... what then?
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=5238

Profiteering is off limits?
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=7531

and, of course, the original Gold thread:
http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=144

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

I find gold to be indigestible, no matter how it grows.

Is this a "Grow Your Own" invitation? Let's see...
Where I live, it was barely cold enough to clove the garlic over the past 30 days.
Where I live, I can grow lots of citrus and avocadoes, and tomatoes, and salad ingredients, and if I'm lucky, some potatoes.

But what I grow is gold. And without tending to it, it's been growing at about a 25% to 30% growth rate every year. I don't water it or allocate more than about 1/2 hour a year thinking about it.

And when time turns ugly, as Niman's reporting and those here tracking the Keystone Kops chase of virus first and the funny WHO spokespeople giving interpretive chase (I personally don't believe them, now, after 2 years, because for them to say there has been H2H and it's an already recognized reality, now, when at the time, there was none, has discredited them permanently in my eyes), if after the gov't's confiscate all foodstuffs (how they can do it without killing those they enlist to associate to get and distribute it I've no idea...even after they commandeer every N95/N100 mask in their dominion and control), there's only your tomato and you want something other than a tomato (as remember, everyone and their uncle in your neighborhood has bounty's of them at the same time, thus driving the value to the floor), you had better think of what someone else will want to eat, and that is gold (and silver coins, real ones, coin silver coins, junk silver if I may) as that's one assured way of storing value and holding a medium of exchange.

Best, I'll leave you be and I'll be happy to see you survive and return to society when the final wave is over, and you'll grow small amounts of food for you and yours, and you'll never need gold. After it's all over, your tomato won't buy what precious metals will.

We still don't define how severe it will be...but I have believed ever since day one that 1917-1918 was a fair indication for what was then brewing in Vietnam (much to the disagreement by TPTB like the squeaky wheel guy at WHO and their stream of spokespeople, all thinking they're doing right and now, history shows, they've acted poorly--please don't get me started), and the outcome would be in a nutshell, holy hell.

And because I saw the pandemic virus having only 2 paths, recombination to low path, and sustained high path, I decided that if high path were out there, at the same time, then it's high path that needed to be and needs to be addressed because low path is unimportant as it's unimpactful. So far, 2 years later, nobody at WHO's managed to send a message to the high path virus that it should quit being so, or at least HP didn't get the message in CHINA, INDONESIA, EGYPT ( as recent as the last 2 months) and let's watch the rest of the lineup this year.

So, gold figures as one preparatory item in the wheelbarrow of preps. It will be a store of value and a medium of exchange. Comparing gold to any currency this year leads to only one conclusion, that this poster has been correct as to gold....

and I'll tell y'a what, I'm right about High Path H5N1 being one of and the most outrageously dangerous of the pandemic flu's that will be circulating, and when??? way too soon for me. How long? Well, let's look at Egypt over the past 4 years? Oops, nothing in that 4th year last past. Aw, sorry. And 3 years ago, nearly nothing, and last year, well we all die and a few here and there, and this year, the virus is gambooling. Soon enough.

 

[JetStuuby]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

GR, **** i'm glad yr back I thought you were dead. FT has just become way more interesting now that yr back

 

[kernel klink]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

arty:
Me too GR. Glad you are back!!!! I thought you had gone for ever.... By the way, having learnt a great deal from your original posts, and having acted on what I have learnt, I am two years later in a much stronger position today to face a pandemic. I am also far better off financially. Your advice has stood the test of time. Thank you. I am looking forward to some more fun education and entertainment in the coming weeks. Long may the show continue.