Gold - Feb 9, 2007 to Mar 16, 2008

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Thx for the very kind words, something I apparently was born without.

Gold is moving daily at USD 10-17, which in the past would be the rarity, and is now common. Expect $20 and $25 moves daily to become common also.

That's 3% moves in a day. That's the sign of a healthy market. It breathes. It will be manipulated. The Central Banks (CB's) in the West are short, apparently. Apparently because they won't tell the truth until we can see what they have lent to Investment Banks (like Goldman Sachs) who sold the real gold and gave a promise to return it as it's "rented". So, as gold goes up further, some CB's are in serious economic trouble, when they are forced to account for their store of gold...not there! Duh!

Since I was here last, there have been multi billion dollar losses at major gold producers, which is why I don't like those stocks. Like a number of fools who posted gold is not where it's at, over at whatever the name of that news discussion website is, they bet against the price rising, and it rose and rose and rose and rose and rose and finally, they squealed, "uncle", and covered their shorts. When they did, they lost billions. Some have not yet squealed. So more blood out of the investors. Top management at those companies have damaged their investors, but they stay in power. Talk about crazy!

That top management lied to their investors. They did not tell the whole truth. They did not disclose clearly and timely. And when the economic damage occurred, the investor public simply accepted the "error" and took the loss in their personal accounts, and management that should have been thrown out and should have been sued for incompetence, and their board of directors who too should have been replaced? Well...guess what!!! All of those people stayed in power.

Any of this beginning to sound familiar???

The losses that were taken at some of the majors are larger than the money they will earn for years and years! They hurt their investors. But the investors have no other "managers" to choose from and there is no organized opposition; so the managers take their big salaries and perks, and the investors continue in the dark.

 

[JohnW]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

...there's only your tomato and you want something other than a tomato (as remember, everyone and their uncle in your neighborhood has bounty's of them at the same time, thus driving the value to the floor), you had better think of what someone else will want to eat, and that is gold (and silver coins, real ones, coin silver coins, junk silver if I may) as that's one assured way of storing value and holding a medium of exchange.

.

OK. I buy your argument. If the CAR*CFR is high enough, there will be plenty of vacant land around, leading to a plunge in the value of real estate. Guess I'm about maxed out on worry, though. Knowing I'll have a place to live and grow at least gives me some sense of security. Good luck to you on your gold...and good luck to me on my grow

 

[Amish Country]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

GaudiaRay and JohnW

I think you are both right. Doesn't the old saying "Cash on the barrel" refer to "hard" currency? Gold and Silver because of the sound it made hitting the top of the barrel? It was and is real and tangible. Thing is initially during an emergency when there are few tomatoes (staples and other supplies) and lots of gold and silver the price of tomatoes is going to be high, same in reverse after things start to adjust back to a new normal. Simple supply and demand.

If you have a good supply of preps on hand and can grow and preserve and replenish food supplies there is no need to buy them. The more self sufficient a family/community is the less they have to purchase (with whatever probably scarce or in demand commodity or currency). More wealth stays in the family/community. Ever wonder how the Amish with horse drawn farm equipment can compete so successfully with tractors?

I seem to remember from history class (way back when ) during the Great Depression the stocks that just dipped a little and then held their value were the mines supplying gold to the US mint. I also seem to remember a report of persian rug or a grand piano being traded for eggs from a local farmer I think it was during or after the siege of Stalingrad or Berlin? Wonder if the former owners had run out of gold and silver coins? Imagine it was cumbersome to make small change with a piano. Granted these examples are not from a pandemic but they both illustrate value in economies and communities under immense economic stress.

Prepping both ways for whatever may be coming is not a bad idea if the means are available.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

In the minds of all, gold is tapping and in the case of some major currencies, breaching its all time high.

That's irrelevant. Adjust that all time high in 1980 to 2008. That's about 3 times its prior all time high. In fact, it's really 33% of what it was worth in 1980.

1/3 the price of 1980. Is that expensive?



Prior to that, gold will do the same because in a few weeks time, the US stock market and the world's stock markets, except the BRIC countries, who will find themselves pretending they're delinked until that shows up as malarky, all drop like waterfalls to a much more realistic price range.

Remember that every game overshoots its mark. So, we're gonna see the hellzapoppin parties everywhere, with mother-earth-gold as the one fantasy-straw being grasped for dear economic life.

And rightly so. Those holding the wrong straws, like housing and non federal government bonds, will be going in for last rites...bye bye.

 

[Binkerbear]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

..a socialist will still no doubt win the prize and become the King of the debt drunkard. The barbaric relic will shine on yet the bliss ninnies will remain blinded to it like lemmings at the cliff's edge.

How's that ? It's the best that I could come up with on a Saturday night on short notice.

 

[Binkerbear]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

What a move today - "bliss ninnies" take notice.

As I said way back, the CNBC pundits will really be shocked when we start going into a recession and the gold price keeps going up. This trend is starting and, if it continues, gold will be the one and only safe haven no matter what awful scenario unfolds.

Final note and then I'll shut up: Gold will have to hit $2,079 an ounce just to get back to the 1980 high in inflation-adjusted dollars. We (in the U.S.) were still king of the roost back then but now ? Whoa, dude. Hold on to your hat. :tiphat: Gold is a screaming-out-loud buy. :taz: And, for that matter, it probably wouldn't hurt to go ahead and move to Tasmania.

Sorry, too much caffeine this morning. em

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Bink: Gold is a screaming-out-loud buy.
---------
Be careful, there's a huge gap today in spot. It closed at 865 and the low was 872.50. And there's a 1 or 2 gap at 835, both on the daily chart. This gap won't hold. This would be a breakaway gap, but MSM will be full of gold talk this evening because the move is so large, as they perceive large.

I expect an up day in the morning while the suckers get in and then 887.50, Sinclair's magic number, and then suck them down to fill the gap and bleed them $20 below their entry point. The weak hands will flee.

All aboard after that. Those who aren't in will not be getting in, Bink. Best to leave them alone as they're gonna get angry and start eating their mortgages, especially on their second homes.

We have problems with the sequencers who are still being paid public salaries and who hold hand-out tenures or other similar jobs. The debate that will rage and will drive gold up is also to our disadvantage as the truth won't be stated until the crowns they're placing on their heads now, "Aren't we wonderful", get pulled off and knocked off and dropped off.

 

[Binkerbear]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

I keep waiting for dips but they are so short-lived and shallow lately. I really wish there would be a big correction ...but, at the same time, it's still very cheap compared to 1980.

In fact, my gut feel is that it will be at $950 before it falls to $800 again.
Disclaimer: My gut instincts have a poor track record.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Of all people Bink, if you've not bought and held, like you did other preps, you are on the other line and it serves at 5 pm, so don't be late, with your tin bowl. Say hello to Oliver and his friends.

When gold next dips, it will scare the heck out of people. It's like the Jews in the Death Camps (yes, like recombination and like the pandemic now growing, they were real) who would say when they knew they had no hope of escaping alive, "Ani Ma'ameem", which I recollect from Frankl's book, was "I believe."

This is a matter of belief, just like my denial of random mutation and my denial of going to drop in virulence, and my belief in recombination. Either one believes, or one doesn't.

Those who believed and yet believe are the winners. Playing scalping games, a few points here and there, is a losing game for most people. One believes and one holds that belief, and that's the end of the matter. Just like many who held the wrong beliefs in pandemia, squeaky wheels, whatever, they were wrong and have perished, and many more will do so before this flu thing reaches Level 6.

We are now at 887, Sinclair's expected short term top. Tomorrow, the public will enter. Then the game can end abruptly for a moment, until yet again it picks up. Buying here is inexplicable because so many times and so many years have passed since this topic was raised. Moreover, only now, the last stalwarts are receiving their lessons. So, why get caught in this trading trap.

 

[yielddude]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Still learning here on metals (on this case gold).
GR, are you saying it will slip (after hitting 887) to 20 points below the $835 gap?
I have some positions already, but may be looking to top off in the next two weeks. Regards,
yield

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

YD, that's not what I said in full.

I said 887.50 would be a ceiling. In after hours trading gold just bounced off of 889+, and it's below 887.

I cannot and will not guide anyone other than to look for yourselves and find a way to be 10000000% positive that you can decide and live with your decision, period. Then live with it. Prices move. So, no matter when you enter, the market will scare you.

But entering after a large move and with the public aware, that's either lucky or stupid.

Those now entering will be slaughtered. So, it takes guts to wait for it and it takes even more guts to buy into the bloodletting.

There is a gap at 835. There is a gap at 865-872.50. Gaps get filled. The 835 gap is like 1 or 2 dollars; so it may be ignored. The market is moving 15-20 a day now. So, this 865 number is the entry point; but it will pull back below that.

I'm sorry you weren't here before I was banned for about a year. I wrote about this for years; now, I and those who chose the same path are reaping the rewards. The rewards will be reaped at $2000 and $3000 and maybe, if we're lucky or tragically hurt economically, $6000. The point is gold is the real money now as fiat is seen for what it is, an agreement of trust. That trust is broken. The central bankers and the investment bankers screwed their respective publics. Now, many of the flunkies who worked for them will be jobless, and good riddance. But gold will not drop just because they'll be unemployed. The market has doubled since I entered; so what. It will double again. If you don't believe me, this time, it will be serious and for real.

Your house will be worth 35 cents on the 2005 dollar. Good for you. You're bankrupt. What do I care? What does anyone who thought about this care?
You didn't think. Life's tough. You're out. Next.

Your stocks will be worth 35 cents on the 2007 dollar. Good for you. You believe you had to hold onto them. I don't and I should not care. You didn't care about what I said. OK. I don't care what happens to you. You're out. Next.

When everyone wants gold and acts as foolishly as the dotcom stock pigs and the housing boom pigs, then I'm gonna give 'em nearly all of it because they deserve to get what they want.

The store of value shifts. It's unsurprisingly shifting to gold and silver.

I am pleased to see many people bankrupted by these current events. Why? Because historically, wealth is destroyed. There is no "it's different this time."
So the faster it happens, the sooner the game can regroup and be played in its next version. Going long real estate when it's filled with nonpaying renters and vacant houses is a safe bet. I await my turn...later, in about 3 years.

Meanwhile, the recombining bird flu is going to ream the rest of the world who didn't get to be in on the bubbles. If I survive, the world will be my oyster.

And it should be yours as well. You need to think sanguinely and act appropriately. There are plenty of folks who are more aware than I. Look for them anywhere but on Main Stream Media. Those people deserve to be imprisoned; but the economics of reality will wipe most of them from the economic feeding trough, just the way hunters shoot animals.

BTW, I don't wish ill-will on any individual. I just read reality of history and it says, that's what happens. So, when I say it, I don't want you you or you to be it.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Well, isn't that something. NOT.
Gold's back at 870, just 7 hours later. Hmmm.
For those waiting for a dip, this is what's called a dip. Remember 835 is a target; like hit it and leave it. The longs are all in. The shorts now rule for the nonce. Enter small amounts, spread over time. 100% is divided into multiple percents.

Soon enough 1000 will be raising questions, "Am I too late?", and "When will it dip again?" The questions are insults to you who read this now. Either you come to terms with yourself, can't, don't, won't, or you spend the money in advance for a qualified mental health professional, because even that is a challenge to you.

And if you're certifiably "special", you could always short gold and turn in your life security pass prior to Level 6 because the short bus left without you. How many, "It can't happen", and "We don't understand" people actively professing in the area of the virology of pandemia have also missed that short bus? Dollars to donuts they think their pensions and their reputations will save their economic bacon into the future. As I said, they missed their bus. Gold's listing 'em and marking 'em off of history's plus column.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Just like random mutation and assortment are magically causing the same polymorphism, G743A, to appear in vastly distant locations, nearly concurrently, so will real estate and balanced portfolios of stinking and sinking stocks and bonds magically turn their holders into paupers.

I too "believe" in magic. My magical mumbo-jumbo is a tad more rational than that of the mutationists and soon well-assorted-out assortionists. You see, gold did just what I said years ago. And so did housing. But the assortionists are still praying for the big, single event to occur. Next time I grow up, I'm gonna be the incharge of the virology employment agency, and the janitorial employment agency; it's time for the building to be swept out.

 

[Binkerbear]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Of all people Bink, if you've not bought and held ...

GR - I thought you knew me better than that ! My situation is this: I've always thought that you should have a 50-50 mix of hard assets (inflation) and dollar-denominated paper assets (deflation / depression) and I'm now tending to drop the whole dollar thing altogether. IOW, should not all assets now be backed with gold and other physicals ? ...especially now that many are saying we're going into a recession and gold keeps shooting higher contrary to all conventional logic ?

Someone said our last depression was like 'a walk in the park' compared to our future problems. Maybe the 'walk in the park' (the silver lining of 1929-32) was the fact that our American dollar actually strengthened and we had a prominent place in the world ...and, above all, a civil, help-thy-neighbor populace. IOW, this time it really is different. There is probably no place for any cash position at all.

Back in the 90's, many financial advisors said to hold 5% gold as a hedge against calamity. At that time, I thought 50 % would be more reasonable. Now, I'm thinking a 5 % cash position (ie. 95 % gold / hard asset) position might be more reasonable and I am far from that now - therefore, I want to find entry points as gold continues higher and the dollar becomes worthless.

I hope that you or, no one else, who reads these threads thought that I was pounding the table on gold while not yet having a position. OTOH, it is very true as far as preps go. I got burned on Y2K (I was a programmer working day and night to covert over 2000 Cobol programs and I did not think the government or large institutions had the werewithal to do all that tedious labor - I was apparently wrong).

I now have a only list and a plan but, as you know, I'm hoping to watch these boards and the markets to get just a couple of days advance warning before the MSM catches on. Gold is definitely on my prep list but it is the only one scratched off.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Jim Rogers has now for a year been saying soft commodities, gold, China markets and dump the dollar.

With the weather pattern changing, there will be massive droughts and the price of food will continue to get squeezed. We all gotta eat.

No dollars. That was Fl1's position...the USD would be first and foremost. Next.
We know what we all said in the past.

The position I've held is commods for my biz, lots of those as a hedge, but I always watch for Level 6 making everything but preps and gold worth LESS.

This will be my last year of growing commods for my biz. I'm making money because the price of everything is rising and I own a bunch free and clear of debt. So, up prices and up profit. That's a no brainer.

But history says debt holders get their clocks cleaned. This time it is not different. Hello out there.

Store of value is a pond bound sea of lily pads. One had better know where to step next, and one must keep moving. This dream that one can camp on any one thing and go back to Hobbitville is the smoking of too much good stuff. If you got it, it's got you. You pay attention or it will do what it wants and you will be in the soupline with the boys at the other website, huffing and puffing at the stinky people around you.

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Jim Rogers has now for a year been saying soft commodities, gold, China markets and dump the dollar.

With the weather pattern changing, there will be massive droughts and the price of food will continue to get squeezed. We all gotta eat.

No dollars. That was Fl1's position...the USD would be first and foremost. Next.
We know what we all said in the past.

The position I've held is commods for my biz, lots of those as a hedge, but I always watch for Level 6 making everything but preps and gold worth LESS.

This will be my last year of growing commods for my biz. I'm making money because the price of everything is rising and I own a bunch free and clear of debt. So, up prices and up profit. That's a no brainer.

But history says debt holders get their clocks cleaned. This time it is not different. Hello out there.

Store of value is a pond bound sea of lily pads. One had better know where to step next, and one must keep moving. This dream that one can camp on any one thing and go back to Hobbitville is the smoking of too much good stuff. If you got it, it's got you. You pay attention or it will do what it wants and you will be in the soupline with the boys at the other website, huffing and puffing at the stinky people around you.

What I said was that you can not eat gold in a pandemic and that the dollar will rise in comparison to other currencies going into a pandemic.

Food will be the barter item of first choice - not gold.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Fl1, unfortunately, wishes here are not to be had.

The USD has dropped dramatically from the time you made that prediction.

During a panic, the USD will be very attractive, but that will not compensate for the fear driven surge into Precious Metals.

Were we to have wrapped ourselves in dollars over the past 2 years, we would have experienced a terrific invigoration as our sheltering clothes were pulled from us.

Your posit is a good one. At the moment Level 6 is announced, it will already be too late for most of the world's economic systems, as we know now that WHO will be a bit tardy in its conclusionary analysis. Given that WHO holds sequences unreleased for years, they themselves don't know what they hold because recent releases exhibit patterns that they should well have known and commented on.

So, I won't put much faith in the ability to be informed by "them" that the world has descended down a 10% CFR Ro1.5+ event. In fact, they're a great entity to fade if there were a market to be made in selling short the timeliness of WHO's announcement.

But maybe you have better "connections" and will announce the finality of Level 6 here in FT. ??? :tiphat: :applause:

Gold's new high last night in Asia terminates all naysayers. They seem awfully quiet of late, except over at the news feed analyzer homepage, to me a joke as what's mostly posted now is more like "Big Foot seen on Mars".

The pullback was swift; the first one. But never ever ever ever ignore the daily gap of yesterday. So, the price may look like it will surge, but this is the time to take heads from the weak willed, weak handed "investors" who just couldn't do without gold at this new high position. When they're stomped, the price will ascend to $1000 and the USD currency will continue its merry way to bathroom quality.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

As to food bartering, if this is on a one to one basis, those desperate characters will be as good as dead. There's a poignant explanation in Daniel Defoe's book. Remember his protagonist's encounter with the oarsman? And even there, the game was food for gold, albeit at the time, gold was money, and money was gold. Now, paper is money and money is descending in value.

If one thinks that scarcity of paper at the time of a pandemic is the way value will be assumed, I am not yet in your camp. Paper is paper. When the infrastructure is at risk, paper becomes worth the full value of a Continental.

 

[Binkerbear]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

During a panic, the USD will be very attractive - GR

F1 remains absolutely consistent in her opinion. But you GR ? ...where did that one come from ?

I want to go on record and say "During a panic, the USD will not be attractive".

Why should it ? We are a huge debtor nation (each one of us owing $175,000 according to the Comptroller General) and it keeps getting worse with no hope of paying it back. Next we're gonna add Universal Health Care onto our tab. If there's a panic and were I wanting to be in a currency, I would choose countries with no debt, ie. Jim Rogers in the Chinese yuan and Canada is no slouch.

 

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

During a panic, the USD will be very attractive - GR

F1 remains absolutely consistent in her opinion. But you GR ? ...where did that one come from ?

I want to go on record and say "During a panic, the USD will not be attractive".

Why should it ? [snip]

Bink, when Level 6 is upon us at rates even 1/3 of what's out there in Indo, Egypt, Paki, etc, people will hug the local fiat. At that time, the investment game of protect the fisc goes immediately to PM.

FL1 is wrong. Some are unteachable; some are teachable. I'm not teaching much any more. I just want the rewards.