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Gold - Feb 9, 2007 to Mar 16, 2008

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Laidback Al

Well-known member
Gold prices from Jan 00 through Feb 07

au00-pres.gif
 
Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

High gold prices yet ......

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>Consumer confidence hits 2-year high</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Posted 2/9/2007 5:11 AM ET

By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
WASHINGTON ? Consumer confidence climbed to a 2?-year high with people feeling even better about job prospects, the current economic climate and investment opportunities.
The improvement comes as national job growth, while slowing a bit, remains fundamentally healthy. Workers' paychecks are going further as gasoline and other prices ebb. And, interest rates ? including those on mortgages and other consumer loans ? are stable and attractive.
The pickup in consumer confidence, however, didn't help President Bush's overall standing with the public.
The president's job-approval rating in February sank to 32%, matching his lowest-ever marks, according to an AP-Ipsos poll. On the economy, 42% approved of the president's stewardship, while 55% disapproved, the poll said.
Democrats, now in control of Congress, accuse Bush of not doing enough to help narrow economic inequality, which has widened over the past few decades. Finding ways to close that gap between low- and high-income workers is a Democratic priority.
Consumer confidence in February clocked in at 103, according to the RBC Cash Index. That was up from a buoyant 95.3 in January and was the best showing since September 2004. The index is based on the results of the international polling firm Ipsos.
"There's a significant improvement in the way people feel about the state of the economy. I wouldn't say people are giddy, but there is a sense of a better well-being overall," said Brian Bethune, economist at Global Insight.
Consumers this month did express some angst about how economic conditions will unfold over the next six months, perhaps reflecting lingering concerns about the housing slump and the ailing automotive industry, economists said.
Yet, the overall confidence reading bodes well for the national economy. If consumers are in good spirits, they may be more inclined to spend sufficiently to help the economy grow at a moderate pace. Consumer spending plays a major role in shaping national economic activity.
"This certainly suggests that concerns about consumers retrenching are misplaced," said Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services.
Consumers continue to feel optimistic about the job market. This reading rose to 131.9 in February, the highest on record.
The government reported last week that the nation's unemployment rate crept up to 4.6% in January. Even with the bump-up, the rate is still low by historical standards.
Peoples' feelings about current economic conditions also improved. This reading increased to 114 in February, a five-month high.
Gasoline is now selling for $2.19 a gallon, lower than a year ago, according to the Energy Department. That's also a big break compared with the $3-a-gallon prices seen in the early summer.
With prices for energy as well as other goods settling down, inflation also has eased. That's good news for consumers' pocketbooks and wallets.
Workers' wages over the 12 months ending in January grew by 4% ? considerably faster than inflation which is hovering in the 2% range. "Workers are finally making some headway," said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Bank of America's Investment Strategies Group.
Another index tracking peoples' attitudes about buying, saving and other investment decisions, shot up to 102.4 in February, from 83.2 in January. The new reading marked a five-month high.
The Federal Reserve last week decided to give borrowers another break and held interest rates steady. The Fed's key rate hasn't budged since August. Neither has commercial banks' prime lending rate_ for certain credit cards, home equity lines of credit and other loans, which has stayed at 8.25%.
Rates on 30-year mortgages this week dipped to 6.28%.
Another index tracking peoples' feelings about economic conditions and their own financial prospects over the next six months dropped to 69.2 in February, suggesting consumers are somewhat apprehensive about what the future may hold. This expectations index had surged to 83.8 in January after a long period of weakness.
The overall confidence index is benchmarked to a reading of 100 on January 2002, when Ipsos started the survey.
The RBC consumer confidence index was based on responses from 1,000 adults surveyed Monday through Wednesday about their attitudes on personal finance and the economy. Results of the survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/confidence/2007-02-09-consumer-confidence_x.htm?csp=34
 
Gold sales hit record $65.3bn. (On Drudge)

Gold sales hit record $65.3bn. (On Drudge)

Gold sales hit record $65.3bn

ByChris Flood

Published: February 15 2007 13:30 | Last updated: February 15 2007 21:58

Gold sales jumped 22.4 per cent to a record $65.3bn last year in spite of a 10 per cent fall in demand in tonnage terms, according to the World Gold Council, which released its fourth-quarter report on the market on Thursday.
Ask the expert: Gold
gold bar

James Burton, World Gold Council CEO, answers your questions

Last year, price volatility affected the jewellery market, particularly in the first half, but the volume of both investment and industrial demand rose in 2006.
Advertisement

Rapid growth in the popularity of gold exchange traded funds means that ETFs have become the main driver of investment demand growth. The launch of several new gold exchange traded funds helped inflows into ETFs rise by 27 per cent, to 265 tonnes, last year. At the end of last year, total gold stocks held by ETFs and other similar funds amounted to 652.5 tonnes, worth around $13.3bn.

Investment in gold ETF?s overtook demand for gold bars, which fell by 18 per cent last year, to 214.5 tonnes. In total, identifiable investment demand rose by 7 per cent last year. to 636.7m tonnes.

Prospects for investment demand in the first half of 2007 remain good, according to the WGC. The largest gold ETF, streetTRACKS Gold Shares, listed on the Mexican and Singapore exchanges last year, broadening its appeal from its initial New York listing.

In Switzerland, the Z?rcher Kantonal Gold ETF was launched while the GOLDIST fund was issued by Finans Portfoy in Turkey. A Japanese ETF is expected to be launched this year.

Although spending on gold jewellery reached a record $44bn last year, demand in tonnage terms fell 16 per cent to 2,267 tonnes. High prices and volatility affected buying in Asia and the Middle East, mainly in the first eight months of last year.

However, demand surged in late October during the run up to the Diwali festival in India and Eid al Fitr at the end of Ramadan, helped by a retreat in the price below the $600 level. In the final quarter of last year, gold jewellery demand rose 2 per cent in tonnage terms, compared to the same period in 2005.

The WGC said demand in most jewellery markets in January was brisk but cautioned that a return of price volatility could hinder buying.

Industrial and dental demand hit a record 458 tonnes last year, rising 5 per cent compared to 2005 and surpassing the previous high set in 2000. The electronics sector reported particularly strong growth, helped by the increasing use of gold in consumer goods such as flat screen television panels and circuitry in mobile phones and MP3 music players.

Demand from the electronics sector increased 11 per cent to 312 tonnes last year.

Gold is a good conductor of both heat and electricity and is specified when performance in circuitry is crucial, such as for car air bags, which increasingly use gold-plated circuit contacts.

Gold is being used in a new range of industrial and medical applications, including nano-technology, which are still in research or early production stages, but which could have an impact on demand in years to come.

It is even being found useful in environmental applications as it can be used in traps to remove mercury from emissions from coal-fired power stations.

Tariq Salaria, of Standard Chartered, said a key support for the market this year would be diversification of foreign exchange reserves by central banks such as Russia?s and China?s seeking to reduce their exposure to dollar-denominated assets.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007
 
Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Gold May Rise for Seventh Week on Demand for Dollar Alternative

By Choy Leng Yeong​
Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may gain for a seventh straight week as declines in the dollar boosts the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment.

Seventeen of the 37 traders,investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News from Sydney to Chicago on Feb. 15 and Feb. 16 advised buying gold, which rose 50 cents to $672.80 an ounce last week on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Thirteen respondents said to sell, and seven were neutral. Gold has risen 10 percent since Jan. 8 and is up 23 percent from a year ago.

The Bloomberg survey has forecast prices accurately in 90 of 147 weeks, or 61 percent of the time.

This week's survey results:

Bullish: 17 Bearish: 13 Neutral: 7

To contact the reporter on this story: Choy Leng Yeong in Seattle at clyeong@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: February 18, 2007 15:51 EST

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=ail14IwBrK44&refer=commodities
 
Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Gold futures rise early in NY on fund buying
Wed Feb 21, 2007 10:41 AM ET



NEW YORK, Feb 21 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures rebounded early on Wednesday, after dropping almost 2 percent in the previous session, boosted by fund buying and steadying oil prices.
At 10:16 a.m. EST (1516 GMT), most-active gold for April delivery <GCJ7> on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange was up $3.40 at $664.40 an ounce, trading in a tight range between $660.50 and $666.00.
Bernard Hunter, director of precious metals marketing at ScotiaMocatta, said that gold traded higher because of buying after Tuesday's correction and an early turnaround in crude oil prices.
Good fund buying was seen overnight after the Bank of Japan raised rates by a quarter percentage point to 0.5 percent, Hunter said.
Hunter described spot gold's trading as a battle between prices above and below $660 an ounce.
"Certainly, the up-trend is still intact. But I think it's important for the market to get back above $660 if it's going to continue that up-trend," Hunter said.
Spot gold <XAU=> was quoted at $660.80/1.80 an ounce, down from $658.40/9.15 an ounce, its late Tuesday quote in New York. London's afternoon fix was $661.25.
Oil prices edged lower after rising early, pushed upward by technical buying but struggling to break above the narrow range that has persisted this month.
Bullion largely ignored a higher dollar as the greenback is still seen as weak against the euro after the dollar's decline last week.
The dollar gained after a key measure of U.S. inflation rose at a faster-than-expected rate, bolstering views that U.S. interest rates might go higher.
U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in January despite a dip in energy prices, as medical costs jumped, the government said. [ID:nN20196451]
"Yesterday, they really hit it hard so you're seeing a little bit of a bounce here," said Leonard Kaplan, president at Prospector Asset Management.
"With the dollar higher, I can't see these gold prices holding," Kaplan said.
Iran's nuclear saber rattling also helped lift gold prices.
Iran vowed on Wednesday to press on with its nuclear fuel program, ignoring a U.N. deadline to freeze uranium enrichment or face broader sanctions, but offered to guarantee it would not try to develop atomic weapons. [ID:nL2194927]
Looking forward, investors will take cues from the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee's January meeting minutes, due Wednesday afternoon .
In other precious metals, silver followed gold's gain. COMEX March silver <SIH7> was up 4.5 cents at $13.875 an ounce, trading in a range between $13.720 and $13.920.
Spot silver <XAG=> was quoted at $13.840/3.890, compared with $13.810/3.860 from its late Tuesday quote. Silver was fixed in London at $13.740.
NYMEX April platinum <PLJ7> was down $2.10 at $1,217.00 an ounce. Spot platinum <XPT=> was quoted at $1,209.00/14.00.
NYMEX March palladium <PAH7> eased 20 cents at $339.55 an ounce. Spot palladium <XPD=> fetched $338.00/341.00.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/artic...2-21_15-41-23_N21375106&type=comktNews&rpc=44
 
Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

2 years ago..I wonder if they feel the dollar has reached it's bottom?

Gates and Buffett bet against the dollar
By Finfacts Team
Jan 31, 2005, 07:07

...Buffett, whose personal fortune of more than $42.9 billion is exceeded only by Gates's $46.6 billion among corporate titans, has been buying foreign currencies since 2002, because of the impact of the US deficits.

The US dollar has fallen 26 percent against a basket of six major currencies since the start of 2002 and last year, the trade deficit ballooned to a record $609 billion. On the budget side, the Bush Administration has said that the budget shortfall will reach an all-time high of $427 billion in the year ending in September.

``It is a bit scary,'' Bill Gates said of the U.S.'s $7.62 trillion in debt. ``We're in uncharted territory when the world's reserve currency has so much outstanding debt.''

According to Bloomberg News, Warren Buffett, chairman of the investment company Berkshire Hathaway, purchased $1 billion in foreign- currency contracts in the third quarter, bringing his total to $20 billion of forward contracts in eight currencies on Sept. 30, 2004.

The currency position gave Berkshire a $412 million pretax gain in the quarter as the value of the dollar fell. ...
 
Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Looks like gold is now toying around the $690 area; a final resistance area (established in late February) before heading back up to the multi-year high of $720. I wouldn't bet against Buffett, Gates, ... or GR for that matter. :D
 
Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Now it appears that gold has completed a double bottom around $643 and has just broken up through its' 50-day moving average. Hedge funds and large institutions are accumulating call options on gold stocks according to Jon Najarian of optionmonter.com.
 
Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

That was a good call by Najarian; gold is now up over $40 from that level from less than two weeks ago.
 
Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Well that was then (late summer) and this is now. :) Gold is up over $100 in just a few months. Critical to this forum is getting some kind of diversity in financial assets as we enter more dangerous grounds on all fronts - pandemic being just one of many horrific threats.
 
Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Hi Again,
Interesting time to return, with gold $5 under it's longterm recovery high, and just about to terminate all the hesitancy about owning this form of store of value.

For those who took positions at $500+ at my strident urging 2 years ago, well, good for you.

For those who didn't, my posts will not be for you; just ignore them.

Where's gold going? Inflation adjusted price of gold's prior high: $1600-$2100.
But with the USD now near its lows and heading down due to what was obvious then and now gaining momentum to severely degrade the store of value of oh say half of all people who've saved in real estate and equities, where they're measured in USD's, that doubling of the current value will be exceeded by the new fear and speculation just about to enter the gold market.

The shorts are about to economically die; and good riddance to them. The folks at Goldman Sachs have publicly misrepresented the direction of gold, they saying down, and saying it, my hunch, to buy as much as they can at lower prices, around these prices. Remember GS works for nobody but their paying customers; so their news releases are bald manipulations that the public should seriously consider as flags telling them which way to invest about 30 days after GS tells the public this or that.

Gold has risen well. It is not mass media newsworthy now. That's wonderful. I will add to my positions as soon as I have free capital, during January.

The foolishness associated with gold like seasonality is still playing well to those who have limited information and fear. Christmas was a bomb (negative); but New Years has been great...as if everyone is buying golden gifts for New Year but not as Christmas presents. That claptrap is nothing but palaver for the lumpen proletariats. Junk news in, junk responses out.

More another day.
 
Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Historically, the last time gold was anywhere near these levels was in 1980. At that time oil also spiked to almost $70 a barrel. Gold and oil prices quickly retreated. That won't happen this time.

Since 1980, we have had a 50% increase in the world population (4 billion to 6 billion), we are at or past Peak Oil, and we have a deteriorating climatic situation. The world economic situation is a whole lot more bleak looking forward today than it was looking forward into the 1980s and 1990s.
 
Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Is there a thread on the roll of gold post-pandemic?

Is there a thread on what will be used as the medium of exchange after a severe (I mean like the recent Pakistani H2H2H2H type pandemic?)
 
Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

how much costs the production of gold with current prices of oil,
labour,... ?
how much gold is there ?
how much gold is produced/mined per year ?

same for oil.

how much costs gasoline from plants, given same taxation, transport costs ?

the $ was weak, we should calculate prices in world-currency, inflation adjusted
 
Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

..........Is there a thread on what will be used as the medium of exchange after a severe....

Good question.

Would it be in-demand goods or services and/or non-consumables?

Small "denominations" could be barter items, but how to store value in the higher amounts might vary with changing demands.

Welcome back GR. :D

.
 
Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Re: Gold - Feb 9+

Is there a thread on the roll of gold post-pandemic?

Is there a thread on what will be used as the medium of exchange after a severe (I mean like the recent Pakistani H2H2H2H type pandemic?)

No, why don't you start one?
 
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