Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

[Pathfinder]

Translation Google

Variant Delta: the pessimistic scenarios of the Institut Pasteur for the coming months


Julie kern
Scientific writer
Posted on 07/15/2021

Using mathematical models, the Institut Pasteur is trying to predict the future of the epidemic. Their latest results concern the Delta variant and their projections are rather pessimistic


With the spread of the Delta variant , the number of new cases of Covid-19 is on the rise again in France and around the world. In the Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases Unit at the Institut Pasteur, we are trying to anticipate the future of the epidemic using real data collected in the field, as well as hypotheses.
This research group regularly publishes the results of their work on Covid-19 Modeling . Their last publication of July 12, 2021 focuses on the evolution of the Delta variant in metropolitan France (excluding Corsica).
...
To track down the Delta variant in screening tests , laboratories look for the L452R mutation on the S protein . This is how we can know the proportion of Delta samples compared to total samples. Between June and July, the mean effective reproduction rate (R [SUB]d[/SUB] ) of the Delta variant was 2.0. In other words, it takes 5-6 days for the number of people infected with the Delta variant to double.

Based on this data, the Institut Pasteur proposes two scenarios: a simplified model of exponential growth and a more complex model where natural and vaccine immunities are taken into account. In both cases, it appears that hospitals will again be under intense pressure from the start of the school year.

Two scenarios for an epidemic rebound at the start of the school year

The first exponential modeling suggests that if R [SUB]d [/SUB] remains at 2.0, there would be 40,000 cases daily variant Delta 1 [SUP]st[/SUP] August; 24,000 if the R [SUB]d[/SUB] goes to 1.8 and 11,000 if it falls further to 1.5, from July 8. This pessimistic scenario does not consider the increase in immunization coverage .

The second, more detailed model takes into account vaccination coverage and natural immunity, and the effects of age on the spread of the virus and the risks of serious forms. According to this, if the R [SUB]of[/SUB] rest to 2.0, there could be up to 35,000 Delta varying daily event at 1 [SUP]st[/SUP] August; 20,000 for an R [SUB]d[/SUB] of 1.8 and 10,000 for an R [SUB]d[/SUB] of 1.5, from July 8.

Comparison of the projections of the simplified model (dotted line) and of the complex model (line) for the different R [SUB]d[/SUB] . The x-axis indicates the date, and the vertical line the one at which the R [SUB]d[/SUB] changes. On the y-axis, the number of Delta cases in thousands. © Institut Pasteur ​

Reduce variant circulation

The Institut Pasteur group has not predicted the future with certainty, these projections are based on uncertain assumptions and incomplete data. For example, the authors explain that the mathematical model “does not take into account the reduction in efficacy 2 observed in first-time recipients of Delta. This could lead to overly optimistic projections when a large proportion of French people are first vaccinated and the loss of efficacy of vaccines against the Delta variant has not been taken into account. If the Delta variant turns out to be more severe than the others, that could also darken the projections, but there is no evidence to support this to date.

Reducing the circulation of the virus appears to be the key to controlling the epidemic in the coming months. If the virus continues to circulate at the same rate or accelerates, hospitals could be overwhelmed as early as August. The number of daily and intensive care admissions would exceed that of the first wave of March 2020 , and that from next September.

" Even relatively small reductions in the transmission rate this summer (in the order of 10 to 25%) would significantly reduce the size of the peak in hospitalizations and delay the onset of this peak to a time when the the hospital would be in a better position to absorb an influx of patients, ”noted scientists from the Institut Pasteur. To achieve this goal, vaccination, isolation of positive cases and respect for barrier gestures remain our best weapons.


https://www.futura-sciences.com/sant...s-venir-92517/

 

[Pathfinder]

GOV.UK

Transparency data
SAGE 93 minutes: Coronavirus (COVID-19) response, 7 July 2021

Published 12 July 2021
...

Roadmap modelling
...
8. All modelled scenarios show a period of extremely high prevalence of infection lasting until at least the end of August. There is high uncertainty around both the scale of the peak in prevalence and in the number of confirmed cases that this would correspond to. SAGE also notes that the level of testing may become limited by uptake or capacity.

9. There are four major risks associated with high numbers of infections. These are an increase in hospitalisations and deaths, more ‘Long-COVID’; workforce absences (including in the NHS); and the increased risk of new variants emerging. The combination of high prevalence and high levels of vaccination creates the conditions in which an immune escape variant is most likely to emerge. The likelihood of this happening is unknown, but such a variant would present a significant risk both in the UK and internationally.
...
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...tes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-7-july-2021

 

[Pathfinder]

A Louisiana doctor's COVID plea: 'If you don't choose the vaccine, you're choosing death'

BY ANDREA GALLO | STAFF WRITER JUL 16, 2021 - 12:35 PM

A Baton Rouge infectious disease specialist gave a stark account Friday of the dangers of the coronavirus delta variant circulating through Louisiana, saying that it's causing children to lose their parents, pregnant women to lose their babies and that choosing vaccination is the only option to avoid more deaths.
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"I want to be clear after seeing what I've seen the past two weeks," O'Neal said. "We only have two choices: we are either going to get vaccinated and end the pandemic. Or we are going to accept death. A lot of it, this surge, and another surge, and possibly another variant."
...
https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_r...cle_e17a5142-e655-11eb-ae97-774a2f5935d3.html

 

[Pathfinder]

"Israel’s Health Ministry released data on Monday showing that the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID vaccine appears to largely prevent hospitalization and serious cases, but is significantly less effective against preventing the spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus."

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israe...ective-against-delta-variant-eyes-third-dose/

Israel claims Pfizer COVID vaccine less effective against Delta variant

By Eileen AJ Connelly July 18, 2021 | 12:06am | Updated

Israeli officials are warning that the Pfizer vaccine is “significantly less” effective against the Delta variant of the coronavirus, the strain first seen in India that now accounts for 31 percent of cases in the US.

“We do not know exactly to what degree the vaccine helps, but it is significantly less,” said Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.

The shot is still keeping people from getting seriously ill in Israel, where over 60 percent of the population has received a jab. Just 1.6 percent have become critically ill, compared with 4 percent in the pre-vax wave of cases.
...
https://nypost.com/2021/07/18/israe...vaccine-less-effective-against-delta-variant/

 

[Mary Wilson]

(some good charts here)

Delta variant takes hold in developing world as infections soar

17 HOURS AGO
John Burn-Murdoch and David Pilling in London

The Delta coronavirus variant that has rapidly become dominant across much of the world is exacting a grim toll on dozens of developing countries, where vaccination levels are insufficient to prevent a surge in cases from becoming a wave of deaths. As economies in Europe and the US that have successfully weakened the link between infections and deaths have started to reopen, poorer countries with low vaccination rates are in some cases entering their worst phase of the pandemic. “The world thinks this epidemic is over,” said Fatima Hassan, founder of South Africa’s Health Justice Initiative. “But we still don’t have enough vaccine supplies in the system despite the global realisation that the Delta variant is so devastating.” The Delta variant first identified in India accounts for 95 per cent of cases in South Africa where the genetic code has been sequenced. ...

https://www.ft.com/content/fa4f248a-a476-491d-a5ce-f128360e9f24

 

[sharon sanders]

UK cases are now at the highest level of 2021:


https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...652#post919652

 

[gsgs]

now I also see them claiming that natural infection protects 6.7 times better than the vaccine
against (re-) infection

---------------------------
Nearly 40% of new COVID patients in Israel were vaccinated - compared to just 1% who had
been infected previously.
More than 7,700 new cases of the virus have been detected during the most recent wave
starting in May, but just 72 of the confirmed cases were reported in people who were
known to have been infected previously – that is, less than 1% of the new cases.
With a total of 835,792 Israelis known to have recovered from the virus, the 72 instances
of reinfection amount to 0.0086% of people who were already infected with COVID.
By contrast, Israelis who were vaccinated were 6.72 times more likely to get infected after the
shot than after natural infection, with over 3,000 of the 5,193,499, or 0.0578%, of Israelis who
were vaccinated getting infected in the latest wave.
According to a report by Channel 13, the disparity has confounded – and divided – Health
Ministry experts, with some saying the data proves the higher level of immunity provided by
natural infection versus vaccination, while others remained unconvinced.

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Israel, Jul20, 6.7 times higher infection rate in vaccinated than previously infected
but @DrTomFrieden , · Jul 8
Vaccination gives you higher antibody levels and much stronger protection against Covid than
natural infection, according to the best data we have today. If you recovered from Covid but still
haven't been vaccinated, you may be vulnerable to reinfection—especially by Delta
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
https://twitter.com/bell00david/status/1417548973452062724

 

[gsgs]

with an acceleration since Jul17 , all measures lifted on Jul19 ("freedom day")
down in Scotland since Jul09 , some say this is because of school holidays since Jun25
Scotland was earlier in the wave, Northern Ireland and Wales are later.
It's still going up in NE-England with 7-day-incidence of 960 meanwhile.
That incidence in USA would give 452000 daily cases

http://magictour.free.fr/uk-0719.GIF

if puzzles me, how these accelerations happen so coordinated in multiple distant regions !
In Scotland apparently the soccer game on Jun18 in London increased male incidence
i.e. age 20-24 : http://magictour.free.fr/scotage1.GIF
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unexpected shift from unvaccinated to vaccinated infections in England :
https://citizenwells.files.wordpress.com/2021/07/ukstudynewcases.png?w=500
https://citizenwells.com/2021/07/19...unity-must-be-working-while-vaccines-are-not/

well, unvaccinated also typically mean younger, so maybe an age-shift
-------------------------------------

 

[sharon sanders]

NOT MEDICAL ADVICE! If you have any questions about vaccines, medicines, or any medical condition, consult your medical practitioner.


We are early in this disease. Despite many studies saying one thing, or the other, the fact is we just don't know everything.

Be prudent. Do NOT depend on a vaccine or any drug to "save you". Get your control back. Even if you are fully vaccinated like I am, be careful what situations you put yourself into.

Today there is a study that the RNA vaccines may give long term protection....ok....show me the real life data around virus shedding people.....

Masks are being pushed...ok...they help....but the most common ones let air inside...so they are only sorta effective by themselves.....

There are some drugs....but again, do you really want to count on this?

So, in the end, use your common sense....assess your risk factors....pick what venues to attend...take a mask if you are uneasy....

COVID-19 is airborne. You know what to do.

Only you can protect you.

I wanted to add this quote about N95 masks:

"Quality of mask does matter and a- and a high quality N95 mask is going to afford you a much better level of protection, especially if you fit it and wear it properly. So, quality of mask is important. And I think if you're a vulnerable individual who wants to use that mask to protect yourself and not just use that mask to cut down on the risk that you could be a super spreader, you could be spreading the virus to others, then you have to look out for a high-quality mask. They are available." link

 

[gsgs]

ZOE updated their model, it no longer shows the decreasing cases in UK in unvaccinated people
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-estimates-updated-vaccine

 

[Pathfinder]

Hat tip Tetano
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...-vaccines-against-the-b-1-617-2-delta-variant

Effectiveness of Covid-19 Vaccines against the B.1.617.2 (Delta) Variant
...
RESULTS

Effectiveness after one dose of vaccine (BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) was notably lower among persons with the delta variant (30.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 25.2 to 35.7) than among those with the alpha variant (48.7%; 95% CI, 45.5 to 51.7); the results were similar for both vaccines. With the BNT162b2 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 93.7% (95% CI, 91.6 to 95.3) among persons with the alpha variant and 88.0% (95% CI, 85.3 to 90.1) among those with the delta variant. With the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 74.5% (95% CI, 68.4 to 79.4) among persons with the alpha variant and 67.0% (95% CI, 61.3 to 71.8) among those with the delta variant.

CONCLUSIONS
Only modest differences in vaccine effectiveness were noted with the delta variant as compared with the alpha variant after the receipt of two vaccine doses. Absolute differences in vaccine effectiveness were more marked after the receipt of the first dose. This finding would support efforts to maximize vaccine uptake with two doses among vulnerable populations. (Funded by Public Health England.)
...

 

[sharon sanders]

Like said many times before, vaccines are only ONE TOOL. They are not 100% effective for everyone. Even fully vaccinated people need to be selective in what situations they place themselves in and, omg, masks, masks, masks, masks.

Mini rant alert warning...

I just do not understand the resistance to masks. I don't really like wearing them but they are your last resort, personal control, over a respiratory disease. In some cultures it is a standard practice to wear masks in crowded conditions, like subways, for instance.

Masks are not 100% either. They are also only ONE TOOL. They are not a guarantee of anything. But they are a small and portable defense for you to use if you find yourself in a possible disease transmitting situation.

Carrying a high quality 95N mask is you taking back your life in a pandemic. They should be celebrated and not derided.


---------------------------------------------

The Gamma variant was originally known as the COVID19 variant that was first identified in Brazil. Please see:

EID Journal: Breakthrough Infections of SARS-CoV-2 Gamma Variant in Fully Vaccinated Gold Miners, French Guiana, 2021




Disclosure: I am fully vaccinated AND I carry a mask!

 

[Emily]

I'm in one of the 'hot zones' and I'm seeing more people outdoors in masks again. Today I saw a neighbor get picked up by someone and both had blue medical gloves and masks on. That's unusual.

I found that Lowe's and Home Depot have 3M N-95 masks. We got a box of 10. We need them for smoke exposures and for home projects so they won't go to waste even if we don't need them for the pandemic. Buying a batch really brings down the price per unit. I'm so glad they are available again.

 

[gsgs]

effectivity of BNT against infection or sympyomatic disease with delta

UK : 88% , new study , NEJM , 2021-07-20
Israel : 16%,44%,68%,77% if 2nd dose in Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr , data given 2021-07-23

so, does it wane ? We should have heard about that from UK,USA already with so much analysis and data,
but I remember only reports about small waning (20% in 6 months or such)

what else could be the reason for the Israel results ?

Israel goes for 3rd doses now.
UK probably too
USA also makes a shift towards 3rd doses, I read. Just a few weeks after FDA said that was not necessary.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/23/s...el-pfizer.html
https://www.jpost.com/%20israel-pfiz...iveness-674766
https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2021/jul/...und-2-3-months

50% fewer antibodies may reduce the effectivity by 5-10% , I estimate
remember also the big drop in effectivity against delta with 1 dose,
may that be because of the prolonged time between delta and administration ?
(usually 12 weeks between doses in UK)
and also the recent study about increased antibodies after a long interval between doses

 

[Emily]

It seems like the more patterns of vaccination simulate the way pandemics move through populations, the better the immunity.

 

[Emily]

xhttps://www.thedailybeast.com/ozark-empire-fair-in-springfield-missouri-will-unite-covid-and-the-unvaccinated
...
Blevins got vaccinated back in March but learned firsthand two weeks ago that even the shot does not offer complete protection against the Delta variant. He began to suffer symptoms on the Fourth of July and grew considerably worse the next day.

“By then, I was literally shaking because I was having seizures,” he recalled. “I just sat there and shook... That’s all you can do.”

He went to the doctor the next day and arrived to see his best friend being wheeled out to an ambulance.

“I didn’t see that coming,” he later said.

The friend had not gotten the shot, saying the vaccine was too experimental. She was on the way to the hospital with COVID as he continued on into the doctor’s office to get tested.

“They said, ‘Yeah, you got it,’” he recalled.

He also gave it to his wife, who had gotten her first shot a day before he was diagnosed—too late to build up any appreciable protection. She escaped being hospitalized but was even sicker than he became.

“By God I was sick,” he said. “That was a rough ride, but it was short.”

He is certain his illness would have been even more severe were it not for the shot. And at 60 years old with a history of heart and kidney ailments, he figures he would not likely have shared the good luck of his wife and best friend in being on the way to a full recovery...

 

[Pathfinder]

July 26, 2021
10:38 AM CST
Last Updated a day ago

How the Delta variant upends assumptions about the coronavirus

Julie SteenhuysenAlistair SmoutAri Rabinovitch
...
Dr. Monica Gandhi, an infectious diseases doctor at the University of California, San Francisco, said many vaccinated people are "so disappointed" that they are not 100% protected from mild infections. But the fact that nearly all Americans hospitalized with COVID-19 right now are unvaccinated "is pretty astounding effectiveness," she said.
...
The Pfizer Inc (PFE.N)/BioNTech vaccine, one of the most effective against COVID-19 so far, appeared only 41% effective at halting symptomatic infections in Israel over the past month as the Delta variant spread, according to Israeli government data. Israeli experts said this information requires more analysis before conclusions can be drawn.
...
A study in China found that people infected with the Delta variant carry 1,000 times more virus in their noses compared with the original version first identified in Wuhan in 2019.

"You may actually excrete more virus and that's why it's more transmissible. That's still being investigated," Peacock said.
...
Genomics expert Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, California, noted that Delta infections have a shorter incubation period and a far higher amount of viral particles.

"That's why the vaccines are going to be challenged. The people who are vaccinated have got to be especially careful. This is a tough one," Topol said.
...
"When the vaccines were first developed, nobody was thinking that they were going to prevent infection," said Carlos del Rio, a professor of medicine and infectious disease epidemiology at Emory University in Atlanta. The aim was always to prevent severe disease and death, del Rio added.
...
https://www.reuters.com/world/china...nds-assumptions-about-coronavirus-2021-07-26/

 

[sharon sanders]

Please see:

CDC - Interim Public Health Recommendations for Fully Vaccinated People - July 27, 2021

 

[sharon sanders]

bump this

 

[Pathfinder]

I am not familiar with this website. This was posted in the comments section.

The first comment is related to this study:

Emerg Infect Dis . Breakthrough Infections of SARS-CoV-2 Gamma Variant in Fully Vaccinated Gold Miners, French Guiana, 2021

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...lly-vaccinated-gold-miners-french-guiana-2021


IM Doc
July 24, 2021 at 8:18 am

About the French Guyana paper from the CDC

This is how science – the actual process – not the Fauci version – should be working.

I have repeatedly stated that I am seeing much much more vaccinated positives than one would ever have expected. As I have stated, they seem to be much sicker (though not critically so) and they tend to happen in clusters. For the past two months, this has stuck out from the dominant media narrative. I have never had to fight the cognitive dissonance between the media and my own eyeballs in my life.

I belong to a large non-public alumni group of my residency program that has literally thousands of IM docs all over America. The first thing a scientist does is to confirm that your observations are general or something you are just seeing. It was quickly obvious from that group that I was far from alone despite the “minimal breakthrough cases” media narrative.

So, then you do everything you can to hypothesize reasons why you are seeing what you are. I have been a physician for 30 years and that experience plays a huge role as well. Having this gigantic number of breakthrough cases just simply does not happen. I continue to see more than half the cases in vaccinated patients and so do many others. UNHEARD OF IN VACCINES BEFORE NOW.

Part of hypothesizing why is looking to the literature for evidence. Seldom is this found in RCT at this stage. Case reports and series like this paper are critical. They are seeing the same breakthrough ratio. And they have done a lot more viral research than you can. This is a gold mine for my own questions.

Is there anything in the paper that could possibly explain what I am seeing. Lots of times, it is not in the headline part but in all the test results and discussion. And yes, there is a very important finding deep in the results.

Why would clustering and sicker patients be so much more common in the breakthrough patients – there must be a reason for that?

If you look at the brief discussion of cT or cycle threshold you will see that the vaccinated patients have a SIGNIFICANTLY lower cT than the unvaccinated. That is the way the PCR test works. It basically means the vaccinated have a much higher amount of viral active particles than the unvaccinated. That would account for the breakthroughs I and my colleagues are seeing being a bit more ill. And it would explain the clustering. THe vaccinated breakthroughs have much higher viral load so they are much more contagious and the higher viral load makes them more symptomatic.

So we now have a suggestion and strong evidence that the vaccinated population may be spreading much more virus than the unvaccinated. I would say that is a critical public health issue and must be further researched immediately.

This Certainly needs much more work. THis is not confirmatory of any conclusions. But it is consistent with observation on the ground – unlike most of what the media has been spewing to the American people. But this is how science works. This paper is about the gamma variant but a conference yesterday with experts discussed that similar findings were being found in delta and lambda. The suggestion in this paper is now on the front of my mind. I am even now thinking of ways to confirm or falsify these conclusions going forward. This is science.

Another issue. The writers make the point that the breakthrough rate is extremely divergent from the expected rate. The difference is this paper documents what is happening in REAL LIFE. So much of what we are hearing on our media about vaccine efficacy is research being done in vitro. It is presented as gospel truth. I just want to scream.

I am doing great and thanks for all the kind words. More about my week later. The commenters here are the best in the internet and I so appreciate my time here.
...

IM Doc
July 24, 2021 at 12:13 pm

For several weeks – dating back to mid May – I was seeing groups of fully vaccinated patients becoming positive – but asymptomatic. Most of these situations arose because one member of the family or group was found to be positive because of foreign travel – or having surgery or whatever.

As this became more and more common – I began to be very concerned about what the future may hold. And the Health Department and CDC were just ambivalent.

The guidance of the local health department was to ignore this – “they are vaccinated – there is no way they can spread, etc.”. Just as the CDC guidance was telling them to do. I do not much like to have armed nuclear warheads sitting around, and I am very persistent – so I ordered the contact tracing on my own – every close family member or close contact was checked. And to my absolute horror – large clusters of them were positive. But at that time, they were asymptomatic- almost every single one. I have been dutifully reporting these numbers to Yves and Lambert for weeks.

Then about a month ago – something changed. People were then starting to become ill – and come to clinical attention that way. There were no longer just the asymptomatic patients. And again – on my own – ordered the contact tracing – and found the same thing. Multiple vaccinated family members positive. Multiple bridge group members positive. Multiple church members positive, etc etc. And lately – socials around the July 4th weekend were also clustered. At that point in time – there was no one sick enough to be in the hospital. But the vaccinated positives were clearly more ill than the unvaccinated positives. Heavier coughs, more SOB, more febrile. This included even the younger ones among them. But again – no one sick enough to be hospitalized.

And then – this week – we have had a seismic shift. We have admitted multiple very ill vaccinated patients – two of which were critically ill. At the same time – we are admitting unvaccinated patients as well. Some of them too are now very ill. We have had deaths this week – all of those patients were unvaccinated. But I am not holding my breath – we now have two critically ill vaccinated patients that I am not sure are going to make it. I do not have the best handle on these situations this week because I am in quarantine. But right at this minute – we have more COVID patients in the hospital since January – and it is right at 50/50 vaccinated/unvaccinated – and I would say they are equally ill.

It has been fascinating to watch this very orderly step up in severity over time. And then this week the bottom dropped out. And I live in a very vaccinated county – the paper reported this AM a 72% vaccination rate. The only stragglers were the 12-18 group which is below 50. The “herd immunity” concept is certainly not working here. And the local medical folks are just horrified that this is getting this bad after working so hard for this really good vaccination rate. It is reminding me greatly of the ramp up we had last summer – it is almost the same in every way – except it got much worse much quicker. I am hoping it will burn out – but not looking like that so far.

I will share something else. I have a very small limited patient size – I am in a small town. But I am very attentive to media reports of numbers from other locations. Big cities and big sample sizes give perspective. When I heard last weekend that there were ZERO vaccinated patients in the hospitals in LA – I grew immediately concerned – because that was not our experience at all – It is basically a WHAT HAVE WE DONE WRONG MOMENT….So I called three of my old students who are now on the front lines in the LA area – to the one – the response was “I have not a clue what they are talking about – that is just not true…”. Among the three of them the averages they were seeing were about 75% – 85% unvaccinated in the hospital – and all had had very ill vaccinated patients. I did not feel so bad then. But My God, the media cannot be trusted with a single god-damn thing. I have never seen such a bunch of liars in my lifetime. It is a real tragedy – when we need them the most they are doing propaganda. And do not even get me started on the Health Dept people who are misleading the population like this.
...
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/07/links-7-24-2021.html#comment-3578254