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Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

Emily I do not think that is a fair comment. This was a complex piece of research involving a lot of contact tracing and interviews. The events attended by those who were infected occurred between the 3rd and 17th of July, the data collected from the 10th to the 26th and the report published on the 30th.
Your twitter post was written on the 29th. That is amazingly fast if it had gone through an accelerated Journal publication we might see it in a month or two. Kudos to the CDC for a very fast and well researched piece of tight science.
 
Not that I want to agree with JJackson, but this would be an example of the CDC moving with lightening speed. It usually takes them months to get an observation researched and included in any report for publication. On the other hand, if they saw this info accumulating just after the 4th, they could have issued a press release sometime in July while waiting for the data to be fully quantified for submittal in a report.
 
"On the other hand, if they saw this info accumulating just after the 4th, they could have issued a press release sometime in July while waiting for the data to be fully quantified for submittal in a report."

That is Dr. Ding's position, Sharon. He also has been pushing CDC to recommend quality masks for those that need them, too. They seem deaf. And they should be faster in a pandemic. I have no faith in them in the first place because no recognition of natural immunity is there. Something is off about their response.
 
Last edited:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02125-1
  • NEWS
  • 03 August 2021
Surprise dip in UK COVID cases baffles researchers

Daily recorded infections have more than halved since mid-July. Few researchers anticipated such a sharp decline, and they are now struggling to interpret it.
...

Not herd immunity


One thing it doesn’t mean, says Edmunds, is that the United Kingdom has built up enough population immunity through vaccination and natural infection to stop the virus spreading. “The drop in cases is unprecedented to some extent, in that it seemed to occur everywhere,” he says — something which has been previously seen only after lockdowns. “But herd immunity would come in different places at different times.”
 
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02125-1
  • NEWS
  • 03 August 2021
Surprise dip in UK COVID cases baffles researchers

Daily recorded infections have more than halved since mid-July. Few researchers anticipated such a sharp decline, and they are now struggling to interpret it.
...

Not herd immunity


One thing it doesn’t mean, says Edmunds, is that the United Kingdom has built up enough population immunity through vaccination and natural infection to stop the virus spreading. “The drop in cases is unprecedented to some extent, in that it seemed to occur everywhere,” he says — something which has been previously seen only after lockdowns. “But herd immunity would come in different places at different times.”

Is the duration of the Delta variant cycle about 8 weeks in a well vaccinated society?

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum...y-do-not-travel-july-19-2021/page3#post921054
 
5 weeks up, 5 weeks down was my rule of thumb for an infective wave.
seasonal influenza, now COVID. Without NPIs
 
I was not aware of any regular periodicity in the wave forms. Stat news' site is useful for this https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/26/covid-19-tracker/
as it lets you just scroll down through the countries and shows you their epi-curves, I just tried it and some have obvious peaks, but a variable number, and some just a lot of jagged ups and downs. I do not think it is related to the virus, or variant, as much as human behaviour adjusting to perceived risk.
 
Maybe the wave pattern gsgs describes would be seen more locally, like the herd immunity Edmunds describes. The Stat covid tracker seems to break things down no more finely than by country.
 
Emily Stat does get more granular if the data is collected in that way so if you look at the US you can then select California which in turn has graphs for over 60 individual counties. As you get into smaller and smaller units there are not enough data points to make a reasonably smooth curve and it breaks down into a jagged mess. It also shows deaths as the red line but to see these on a reasonable scale you need to click on the blue 'new cases' button (top right ) to get a readable scale. Changing the period to one month averages shows peaks more clearly. If you look at enough country epi-curves you can get to a point where you can make a fairly accurate guess as to what part of the world you are looking at without actually reading the name of the country.
 
Iceland -

Translation Google

Herd immunity must be achieved by transmitting the virus

Árni Sæberg writes August 8, 2021 12:13 PM

Þórólfur Guðnason is the epidemiologist of Iceland

The epidemiologist believes that it is now necessary to try to achieve herd immunity to the coronary virus by letting it continue, but to try to prevent serious illness by protecting vulnerable groups. He says the goal at this point cannot be to eradicate the virus from society.

One and a half months after the abolition of all domestic operations, a record number have been diagnosed infected in recent weeks, despite the fact that the majority of the population has been vaccinated.

Þórólfur Guðnason said in Sprengisandur in Bylgjan this morning that it is disappointing that herd immunity has not been achieved with vaccination. He says there is only one other way to achieve herd immunity, to allow the virus to spread throughout the community.


Þórólfur says that he has talked about it since the beginning of the epidemic that the crown virus mutated. This has now happened with the arrival of the Delta variant across the border.

He says, however, that the vaccination was not in vain. "The vaccination has prevented a serious illness, there is no question about that," says Þórólfur.

Þórólfur says that it is necessary to respond to how many people become infected after vaccination. "We just need to shuffle the cards and come up with new plans," he said.

"We really can not do anything else," says Þórólfur when asked whether the nation of seventy to eighty must be allowed to become infected in order to achieve herd immunity.

Some need to be revaccinated
Þórólfur says that the priority now is to give booster doses to those who have responded poorly to vaccination. "We need to try to vaccinate and better protect those who are vulnerable, but let us tolerate the infection," he said.

"I think it is quite clear that Janssen's defense is weaker than that of other vaccines," says Þórólfur. He says it is a priority to give those who received the Jansen vaccine a booster dose. Then, for example, teachers and the elderly need to be given a booster dose as soon as possible.

"It is not a priority now to vaccinate everyone with the third dose, as we also need to think: Maybe we should get a new variant? Do we need to be vaccinated with another vaccine? ”He says. Þórólfur says that the fight against the virus will be characterized by such uncertainty.

Will not propose hard action
"We need to somehow navigate this way, and we are now in this, not to get too many serious illnesses so that the hospital system does not collapse, but still try to achieve this herd immunity by letting the virus somehow run."

Þórólfur believes that the most important action now is to strengthen the hospital system and enable Landspítali to accept more people who need hospitalization.

He says the situation at Landspítali is not good, even though no emergency call has been received from there. "I do not think we have reached the point where we need to take tough action," he said.

However, he says we need to be ready to take action if we are to see a lot of seriously infected people.

Þórólfur says that there will be discussions with specialists and those who work at Landspítali about improvements at the hospital. He does not intend to comment in detail on what needs to be done for the hospital to meet other demand.

Offer parents a vaccine for their children
It has been decided to invite parents to vaccinate children as new research has indicated that the side effects of vaccinating children are not serious. However, children can become seriously ill if they become infected with the Delta variant.

https://www.visir.is/g/20212140884d/na-thurfi-hjardonaemi-med-thvi-ad-lata-veiruna-ganga
 
Fauci hopeful COVID vaccines get full OK by FDA within weeks

By AAMER MADHANI
yesterday

WILMINGTON, Del. (AP) — The U.S. government’s top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, said Sunday that he was hopeful the Food and Drug Administration will give full approval to the coronavirus vaccine by month’s end and predicted the potential move will spur a wave of vaccine mandates in the private sector as well as schools and universities.

The FDA has only granted emergency-use approval of the Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines, but the agency is expected to soon give full approval to Pfizer.
...
https://apnews.com/article/joe-bide...rus-pandemic-8905fc1d3be22b7b83110f04e909753e
 
I think one of the articles I read in the Israeli press said that Pfizer is coming up with a booster with updated genetics for the new strains.
 
I might be able to see the 5 week cycle locally soon. A month ago I was in a clinic waiting area and there were several people there coughing and sneezing. (This clinic has nothing to do with respiratory disease.) I'm in a high COVID area, but also I read RSV was circulating then. Our state is now down to only 8 ICU beds left.
However, today I was in the same waiting room and no signs of respiratory illness at all. I'm hoping that is a sign of the downside of the cycle.
 
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