Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

[sharon sanders]

I changed a couple of notices on the site regarding masks. There are no studies yet about how well surgical, homemade masks, N95, etc. work against the more transmissible variants of COVID-19.

There is no advice about possibly doubling surgical masks.....standing further away than 6 feet....stronger hand sani....just do not know.

As usual - use your common sense.

 

[sharon sanders]

more groan...I hope I am really screwing up the math.....

I saw a media article a couple of days ago where doctors were complaining that the age group was younger so I thought I would check it out.

from National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED) who says their sources are official government numbers from various countries. link

According to their excel spreadsheets:


COVID-19 deaths weeks 1 through 38 (2020) in the UK in age group 44-64 = 5,049 / 38 weeks = 133 average deaths in the 44-64 age group per week

COVID-19 deaths week 1 (2021) in the UK, with the emergence of B.1.1.7, in age group 44-64 = 657 deaths in the 44-64 age group for week 1.

https://dc-covid.site.ined.fr/en/data/uk

--------------------------------------------

 

[kiwibird]

There is a controversy today about whether people who have had the COVID-19, or have been vaccinated, can stop wearing a mask.

I think it is not clear yet how well the various COVID-19 vaccines actually protect people. We also do not know what the evolution of the virus means as it spreads through the populations. Unfortunately we will have to wait and see. It takes a while to fully evaluate all new vaccines once they are distributed en masse.

I have seen many vaccine "escapes" and outright failures over the years. It is probably better to err on the side of caution.

From the CDC:

"It’s important for everyone to continue using all the tools available to help stop this pandemic as we learn more about how COVID-19 vaccines work in real-world conditions. Cover your mouth and nose with a mask when around others, stay at least 6 feet away from others, avoid crowds, and wash your hands often."

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019.../8-things.html

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55784199

People who have received a Covid-19 vaccine could still pass the virus on to others and should continue following lockdown rules, England's deputy chief medical officer has warned.

Writing in the Sunday Telegraph, Prof Jonathan Van-Tam stressed that scientists "do not yet know the impact of the vaccine on transmission".

He said vaccines offer "hope" but infection rates must come down quickly.

A further 32 vaccine sites are set to open across England this week.

Prof Van-Tam said "no vaccine has ever been" 100% effective, so there is no guaranteed protection.

 

[sharon sanders]

A must watch.

No one can predict the future but be forewarned.

 

[JJackson]

Sharon while the deaths you quoted look bad it is due to there being a lot more COVID cases now than then.

Rejigging the math - In the first 38 weeks the UK was averaging just under 10,000 cases a week giving a death per case of about 1.4%. In week 1 of this year it was about 385,000 cases giving 0.17% i.e. you were 8 times as likely to die in early 2020 than you are now.
What this does not fully cover is any change it the ratio between the 45-64 and other age groups as I only had the total cases data not the numbers by age group for the two time periods.
(I extracted the data from Worldometers.com )

 

[Emily]

Higher child infections seem related to overall caseload and social restrictions in states.

https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/h...ng-admitted-to-arizona-hospitals-for-covid-19
She shared data by Jama Network showing how pediatric numbers relating to COVID-19 have trended in Arizona. Jama Network looked at trends where children are being diagnosed with COVID-19 in 22 states, including Arizona.

"At the beginning of the study, the average cumulative hospitalization rate per 100 000 children was 2.0, increasing to 17.2 by the end of the study," the study reads.

At the end of the study, Arizona ranked as one of two hot spots for children contracting COVID-19. "Hawaii and New Hampshire had the lowest rates at 4.3 and 3.4 per 100 000 respectively and South Dakota and Arizona had the highest rates at 33.7 and 32.8 per 100 000."

The study looked at numbers between the dates May 15, 2020, and November 15, 2020.

 

[sharon sanders]

@JJackson..agree...this is why I did not represent that a move from 133 deaths to 657 deaths per week is in actuality a 5X death rate. It is not. I was merely comparing relative overall death numbers.

 

[sharon sanders]

FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
?
1h
Also - we do not know what increased protective measures should be taken with variants that are more transmissible. There are no studies yet.

Double surgical & homemade masks? Hand sani? More distance?

What? Use your common sense.


#COVID19 #coronavirus
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FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
?
1h
No one can predict the future but...

Please read - One new Covid-19 coronavirus variant, B.1.1.7, may become
the dominant strain and is more transmissible and is possibly deadlier -
Osterholm podcast, Campbell video, some math..

https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/905045-please-read-one-new-covid-19-coronavirus-variant-b-1-1-7-may-become-the-dominant-strain-and-is-more-transmissible-and-is-possibly-deadlier-osterholm-campbell…

#COVID19 #coronavirus
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FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
?
Jan 24

 

[sharon sanders]

January 23, 2021

I changed a couple of notices on the site regarding masks. There are no studies yet about how well surgical, homemade masks, N95, etc. work against the more transmissible variants of COVID-19.

There is no advice about possibly doubling surgical masks.....standing further away than 6 feet....stronger hand sani....just do not know.

As usual - use your common sense.

Apparently Fauci came out in support of double masking today (January 25, 2021):


snip


Could wearing two face masks at once during the pandemic provide more protection than just wearing one? According to White House advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci, “it likely does,” he told NBC News’ TODAY on Monday.

As Fauci explained, masks are physical coverings that prevent respiratory droplets from spreading to other people and provide a degree of protection to the wearer.

“So if you have a physical covering with one layer, you put another layer on, it just makes common sense that it likely would be more effective,” Fauci told TODAY. “That’s the reason why you see people either double masking or doing a version of an N95.”

more...

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/25/dr-f...effective.html

 

[blacknail]

Our hospital is now in outbreak and it is unknown if it is a VOC but contact tracing isn't working the way it has up until now. Public health has redefined a close contact with a confirmed case as now any length of time within 6 feet of a C19+ case who isn't wearing a medical-grade mask when the contact isn't wearing N95+eye protection.

 

[Mary Wilson]

Here comes the vaccine army, with new-to-the-needle volunteers

By ELISE YOUNG | Bloomberg | Published: January 25, 2021

U.S. taxpayers have spent at least $12.4 billion for private companies to develop covid-19 vaccines. Now they're turning to an army of hypodermic-wielding volunteers, some with little practical experience, to help immunize 330 million Americans.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is relaxing rules to allow podiatrists, dentists and pharmacy students to give shots. In Colorado, Governor Jared Polis is asking for help from chiropractors and optometrists. Connecticut, Massachusetts and New Jersey are recruiting health-care retirees to fill shifts at stadiums, vacant department stores and other spaces repurposed as government-run vaccination megasites.

... States vary on certification requirements for intramuscular injections, but the vast majority of those permitted are doctors, nurses and pharmacists. In some states, medical assistants can give doses, but only under a physician's supervision and in a clinical setting. Connecticut, Colorado and Nevada in recent weeks permitted veterinarians to volunteer.

https://www.stripes.com/news/us/her...my-with-new-to-the-needle-volunteers-1.659822

 

[Emily]

Does anyone know of testing done with the mRNA vaccines that ruled out cytokine storm reactions in recipients of the vaccines who had already been exposed and developed immunity to wild virus? Here's why I ask:
1. Clusters of post vaccine deaths in care homes.
2. Some verified reports of deaths/severe reactions in vaccine recipients who had been infected previously with wild virus.
3. Read about death of doctor in India after vaccine. It was called a heart attack, but it was reported that his lungs were full of pus.

 

[Vibrant62]

As far as I am aware the answer is no. I searched very hard to see if there was data for a) what happens if vaccines given to someone previously infected b) what happens if given to someone currently infected with another coronavirus e.g. common cold variants. If there is a linkage here is does suggest that some people could be exhibiting original antigenic sin or antibody dependent enhancement. It needs study IMHO. With that said, given the millions of doses distributed so far, it would be likely to be quite a rare event or we would see a stronger signal. We also need to know what the effect of infection is by a vaccine escape variant in previously immunised individuals, whether the immunological escape is partial or full.

 

[JJackson]

I know of nothing specific but can not think of any mechanism that would cause it. The mRNA vaccine are just spike mRNA in some lipids, neither of which are likely to cause a severe immune response. The lipid protects the RNA until it gets into the cell and acts by fusing with the lipid cell wall and allows the mRNA to enter the cytoplasm where it will act like native mRNA and be used to make spike protein, which is basically the same as wild type protein. After that the host immune cells will treat it like an infection and produce a normal response to a foreign protein. This will produce a self limiting immune response which would carry the same risks as the early stage of natural infection, but without making any new virus to sustain the reaction, the second shot mimics that and may illicit a more severe reaction as it is stimulating many more Spike specific B and T cells that were generated by the first shot.

 

[sharon sanders]

bump this

 

[Emily]

I think I'm on the same page as both of you about this. I'd guess that someone recovered from a previous wild virus infection might react to the first vaccine shot more like someone else getting their second shot since like JJackson explained, they have the immune cells ready to go. I don't know of any reason for it to be worse, either.

https://www.nbcnews.com/science/sci...e-who-recovered-covid-get-vaccinated-n1249766
"So far, there is no evidence that a vaccine would be unsafe for Covid-19 survivors, but more research is needed, said Dr. Sarah Fortune, chair of immunology and infectious diseases at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health."

Certainly was not researched in the trials. Interesting that 56 yr old or older HCW's were excluded. I think most of the HCW deaths after vaccination are in that age range.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04283461

 

[sharon sanders]

China - You know you want to live there! State tv: China starts using ANAL SWABS to test 'high-risk' people for COVID-19 about January 19, 2021

 

[Mary Wilson]

Health Workers, Stuck in the Snow, Administer Coronavirus Vaccine to Stranded Drivers

By Michael Levenson
Jan. 28, 2021, 12:14 a.m. ET

An impromptu roadside vaccination in rural southern Oregon during a snowstorm, when public health workers realized their remaining doses of vaccine would expire while they were stranded.Credit...Josephine County Public Health Department, via Twitter


Public health workers in Josephine County, Ore., said they had walked from car to car, giving shots to drivers with vaccine doses that would expire in six hours.

... “Honestly, once we knew we weren’t going to be back in town in time to use the vaccine, it was just the obvious choice,” he said. “Our No. 1 rule right now is nothing gets wasted.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/u...imes&smtyp=cur

 

[Mary Wilson]

COVID-19: New variant blamed for surge in coronavirus cases in Los Angeles - CAL.20C

Sunday 31 January 2021 22:45
Stuart Ramsay

Scientists in Los Angeles searching for signs that the UK COVID variant had crossed into the US have stumbled on a different one that appears to have been home grown in California - fuelling a surge in cases in the world's entertainment capital.

Nearly 50% of all new coronavirus cases in southern California in January alone are traced to the new variant, CAL.20C, one of the pathologists to identify the strain told Sky News.

... Doctors and researchers at the world-famous Cedars-Sinai medical institution are still testing to see if the California variant is more deadly, more infectious, and more resistant to vaccines, like it is feared others might be.

They found the new strain only because they realised that British scientists were far ahead in seeing the importance of testing for variants.

... The virus is constantly evolving to avoid the immune system, and what is interesting about CAL.20C is that it is developing in a completely different way to the UK, South African and Brazilian variants.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...s-in-los-angeles-12204020?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter

 

[blacknail]

I have been thinking about this. We are sending instructions to cells to make spike proteins inside them. Now, consider that there may be other viruses in those cells lying dormant that suddenly get access to a brand new spike protein that the body has never seen before. Maybe one of those second viruses uses that new protein in order to infect other cells. This would only continue for a short time and it wouldn't necessarily work with any particular virus so it would be really hard to study.