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Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

Sharon, I know you could be right about undercounting in Africa. You spotted this thing brewing in China first. I hope that there might be some real resistance in Africa. Might not be cholorquine since this article, https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2020.01476/full, says it isn't being used much there now due to malaria resistance. They are still using artemisinin compounds and those sound safer that chloroquine and antibiotics. I know a cancer patient who used quite a bit for awhile. (Not effective for that in this case.)

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2020.01476/full
 
Yes, there are some nice scientists, etc, with insight to share on Twitter. If you don't want to have an account, you can use twitter.com/search and browse a topic and find people you like. Then you should be able to follow their posts.
 
The censorship creates more polarization. Pretty soon everything other than what is acceptable to the corporate media ends up on a far right or far left site that has the funds to keep afloat. You get a lot of propaganda or at least agenda on those sites on top of what you are interested in. IMO it is counter-productive to censor.
 
a higher deathrate is only seen in South-Africa.
But South Africa is also different, more European
Deaths are also low in Malaria-free countries like Kenya,Egypt
A high amount of travel may induce cases nd deaths ?!
(see the google+apple "mobility-charts)

Marocco,Libya,Tunesia only now get a wave, deaths may still rise
Namibia has a little more deaths
Distance from the equator seems to correlate with Malaria and with COVID-deaths in Africa

http://magictour.free.fr/mfafr.GIF
 
Spain,France are maybe just at the start of the wave, that they may get 50000 cases per day in 3 weeks,
similar to Israel,Czech, etc.
The cases-by-onset charts, which show a decline in the last weeks, are very incomplete.
The deaths are being corrected , 332,383,430 the last days for the deaths 8-14 days ago = date of death (not date of report).
So it's redoubling every 6 days, 1000 per weeks currently. could be 10000 in 3 weeks , worse as wave1
{I'm not sure yet, will compare with France)

The peaks in Aragon,Madrid were only temporary, it;s going up again.
Cataluna may avoid it with lockdown.

https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesional...9_COVID-19.pdf

------------------------
Ahh, Israel with 8461 cases yesterday, and lockdown. Population = 8.7M ,
so at that rate it would give >300000 cases in USA on a single day
 
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Hey Gert! - Sure, please link to FluTrackers. It is easy to link to us by using the "Tweet" button on the left column. Anyone can link a FluTrackers post to Twitter if they have an account there.
 
Drosten in NDR-podcast still seems to think, that the deaths
in Europe are going to increase a lot
> but the virus must
> first join the older age cohorts
> redistribute. And that takes many weeks. And
> then they have to come to the hospital first
> and ultimately have a difficult course. Also
> that will take more weeks. D.

{also tlking about Africa, Kenia+S.Africa }

https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/coronaskript226.pdf
in German, can be translated with google, but not all in one chunk, afaik ?!?
 
not to sound too pessimistic here -- there are some bad signs, but I still consider it likely
that the hospitalisations and deaths will be much lower (<50%) in this wave in
ITA,SPA,FRA,GBR,NLD,BEL .
It;s a mystery why they had so many deaths in wave 1 , not seen elsewhere in EU,AS,AF,OZ
except Sweden

Spain update by Jose Gefaell ("no 2nd wave in Spain") probably tomorrow
 
Hey Everyone!

I just wanted to remind everyone that all of the counts for COVID-19 are off. This disease is asymptomatic in large numbers of people. Only a fraction are counted as cases. And many natural deaths are not being counted as COVID-19 related either.

Additionally, as the economic consequences mount - every government has an incentive to provide lower numbers. As to the private counting groups, I do not know how reliable they will be going into the future. For instance, I can't find anything about who is behind worldometers. Private companies can have their own motivations.

Please use numbers as a trend indicator only.
 
https://www.worldometers.info/about/

"About
Worldometer is run by an international team of developers, researchers, and volunteers with the goal of making world statistics available in a thought-provoking and time relevant format to a wide audience around the world. It is published by a small and independent digital media company based in the United States. We have no political, governmental, or corporate affiliation. Furthermore, we have no investors, donors, grants, or backers of any type. We are completely independent and self-financed through automated programmatic advertising sold in real time on multiple ad exchanges."

does bug me a little bit about advertising... there is also a "contact us" link if you are really interested... https://www.worldometers.info/contact/

I will say their North Carolina numbers usually match exactly with NC Gov's page : https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/
 
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Translation Google


Hydroxychloroquine: all about the first generic drug made in Morocco

By Qods Chabaa on 09/18/2020 at 1:58 p.m. (updated on 09/18/2020 at 2:00 p.m.)

The Ministry of Health has just announced the marketing of a generic drug of Plaquenil. Made in Morocco and composed of the hydroxychloroquine molecule, this drug is prescribed to patients with Covid-19.

The Moroccan generic drug Plaquenil has obtained its Marketing Authorization (AMM). Advaquenil, this is the name of this drug, is, at the moment, at the stage of price fixing by a commission of the direction of the drug at the Ministry of Health.

According to initial information obtained by Le360, this generic drug is manufactured by the Moroccan laboratory Lapropharm, sold in 2011 to the Jordanian Hikma.

Pharmacists in Morocco are now eager to sell this drug, which has been part of the Covid-19 drug therapy protocol since the start of the epidemic in Morocco in March 2020.

Plaquenil, a drug containing hydroxychloroquine, was imported and all the stock had been requisitioned by the Ministry of Health and made available to public pharmacies, located in all hospitals in Morocco.

At the start of the epidemic, patient care was only carried out in hospitals, and to ensure the regular and continuous availability of this drug, the scientific commission in charge of the day before the Covid epidemic. 19 decided to hand over all the existing and future stock of hydroxychoroquine and chloroquine to the Ministry of Health.

Covid-19 patients treated at home were therefore obliged to go to the hospital pharmacy to possibly obtain hydroxychloroquine. The pharmacists then made a request to the Ministry of Health for authorization to sell it in their pharmacy, on condition of monitoring, even if it means rationing the orders, confirms Oualid Amri, vice-president of the federation. national union of pharmacists.

Today, a crucial question arises: with the home treatment administered to certain patients with Covid-19, will hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine be returned to the pharmacy distribution circuit?

Once the price of Advaquenil will be fixed, will this Moroccan generic be sold in pharmacies?

"For the moment, we are at the stage of price fixing. Once this has been affixed, it is up to the scientific committee to decide whether or not to release all the drugs on the private market. existing drugs that contain chroloquine or hydroxychloroquine, both are part of the protocol, "said Bouchra Medah, director of drugs at the Ministry of Health, contacted by Le360.

Advaqu?nil is already administered in the hospital circuit today, without the price defined by the Ministry of Health being mentioned.

The director of drugs at the Ministry of Health tells us that another Moroccan pharmaceutical company has taken the initiative to manufacture another generic drug, Plaquenil. The project is underway, and its marketing authorization should be granted shortly.

https://m.le360.ma/societe/hydroxyc...medicament-generique-fabrique-au-maroc-223427
 
Thanks longshots. I also find that most of their numbers match the government numbers. Then every so often they have totals that are from alternative non-major media. At least with the New York Times I know about them. For now I think worldometers is ok. I just think we are starting a new phase of this pandemic. I think the first phase was "shock and awe. Now I think the world is moving into the "wth - how do we get through this socially, economically".
 
US - COVID-19′s latest toll in Central Florida: Rising drug overdoses, mental health issues - September 18, 2020

-----------------------------------------------------

I began to see the situation here locally starting about a month ago. This is one of the predicted "collateral" damages affiliated with a pandemic. Pandemic plans predict a significant amount of human suffering related to pandemics.

As you notice we are placing less emphasis on the counts (mostly because they will become less reliable over time) and we are now branching out to cover re-emerging COVID-19 outbreaks plus the new health threats related to the virus.

We could lose as many people to the collateral damage as to the disease itself. One other type of damage is neglecting health issues. We will not know the actual numbers of people who are going undiagnosed with cancer, heart problems, etc. until retrospective studies are done in a few years.

My experience is that all health care professionals and facilities are prepped for COVID-19 now and it is relatively safe to go there. Nothing is 100% but I am going. I know what COVID-19 is and I know how to protect myself. Masks are available at doctor's offices. They have hand sani all over the place. They are screening patients for COVID-19. I have a routine that I perform when I go. So far it has worked.
 
US-numbers are not so good. Often there are inconsistencies, huge increases on one day, and gaps, corrections. Not what we used to see from USA. Especially for the number of tests.
But we have many webpages providing numbers, computer-readable format.
Even County-level,
 
This was the occupied zone over the summer. Vestiges are right out of a post-apocalyptic nightmare. The drug problem has been bad but worse now. Meth (mostly since it is cheaper) dealers will set right up inside of homeless camps. It's easy to manufacture in a backpack now. That gets more hooked. For some reason, water pump stations draw them. I know someone who lives next to a pump station in a public park in an adjacent county and they see it all.
https://komonews.com/news/local/inv...-deaths-more-violence-concerns-some-neighbors
"Meanwhile, people who live and work in the area worry about what the latest violence may mean for their community.
City crews were at Cal Anderson Park Friday in the area where Travis Berge’s body found. He was pulled from a bleach tank inside a water pump station.
Police believe Berge murdered his girlfriend, Lisa Vach, 38, at the park."
 
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