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Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

what happened ? We so so many papers in April,May praysing/showing/proving? the efficiency
of lockdowns ("stay-at-home-orders in USA") especially in USA
I saved 78 lockd*.pdf files
Currently we have Israel and Madrid (who else ?) in lockdown and it seems to work well.

Maybe it's too expensive, bad for the economy ?!
There is also this "Great Barrington Declaration and Petition"
 
But does “lockdown” mean “stay inside” when there’s evidence that sunlight is effective at destroying the virus.

Sunlight is effective in destroying the virus, both airborne and fomites:

Ratnesar-Shumate S, Williams G, Green B, Krause M, Holland B, Wood S, et al. Simulated sunlight rapidly inactivates SARS-CoV-2 on surfaces. J Infect Dis. 2020;222(2):214–22.

CAS Article Google Scholar
31.

Schuit M, Ratnesar-Shumate S, Yolitz J, Williams G, Weaver W, Green B, et al. Airborne SARS-CoV-2 is rapidly inactivated by simulated sunlight. J Infect Dis. 2020;222(4):564–71.

CAS Article Google Scholar
 
I thought the lockdown/mask data was actually all over the place. It looked as though in someplace it may have worked but in others the virus still spread. I haven't dug completely into the WHOs reasonings but my understanding of the cliff notes version is that they are concerned about the harm lockdowns are doing to less advantaged people. I believe that indicates they must feel that the harm is out weighing the believed benefits of locking down whole societies. The increase in poverty, hunger, suicide all are going up in many places add to those the projected deaths in people who are not being treated for treatable illnesses right now and you can see the concern. In the end the cure can't be worse than the disease.
 
SAGE advised a 2-week-lockdown in UK 3 weeks ago "circuit-breaker"
also restrictions for household-mixing,bars,restaurants
but Johnson ignored it

newspaper story :
https://www.businessinsider.com/bori...0-10?r=DE&IR=T

SAGE-documents :
https://assets.publishing.service.go...n_Covid-19.pdf

on Sep.21 , when the UK had _5000 cases/day,40deaths/day they recommended :
a) A circuit-breaker (short period of lockdown) to return incidence to low levels
b) Advice to work from home for those for all those that can
c) Banning all contact within the home with members of other households
(except members of a support bubble)
d) closure of all bars, restaurants, cafes, indoor gyms, and personal servies
(e.g. hairdressers)
e) all university and college teaching to be online unless face-to-face teaching
is absolutely essential.

SAGE , 58th meeting
27 Scientific experts
10 Observers
14 secretariat


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scient...or_Emergencies

================================================== =
 
well, I've learned over the decades that much what the doctor's and pharmacists' groups say are mainly
motivated by their own finances (which they won't say) and only secondary by public health issues
(what they highlight).

And with people avoiding doctor visits and hospitals during lockdown this could also be bad for doctor's finances

It's not a useful discussion when one group just mentions the pros and another group the cons.
You must weight them. Make lists, assign numbers to the points, discuss the single numbers.
 
"It's not a useful discussion when one group just mentions the pros and another group the cons.
You must weight them. Make lists, assign numbers to the points, discuss the single numbers."
VERY WISE WORDS :tiphat:
 
Extra safety scrutiny planned as virus vaccine worries grow

By LAURAN NEERGAARD
today

Facing public skepticism about rushed COVID-19 vaccines, U.S. health officials are planning extra scrutiny of the first people vaccinated when shots become available — an added safety layer experts call vital.
A new poll suggests those vaccine fears are growing. With this week’s pause of a second major vaccine study because of an unexplained illness ...

... On top of rigorous final testing in tens of thousands of people, any COVID-19 vaccines cleared for widespread use will get additional safety evaluation as they’re rolled out. Among plans from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Texting early vaccine recipients to check how they’re feeling, daily for the first week and then weekly out to six weeks.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. infectious diseases expert, says that should be reassuring because it means scientists like himself will see all the evidence.

https://apnews.com/article/virus-ou...edium=APHealthScience&utm_campaign=SocialFlow
 
How Does a Pandemic End? Here's What We Can Learn From the 1918 Flu

BY OLIVIA B. WAXMAN
UPDATED: OCTOBER 7, 2020 4:52 PM EDT | ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED: OCTOBER 6, 2020 5:07 PM EDT

More than six months after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic, as scientific understanding of the novel coronavirus continues to evolve, one question remains decidedly unanswered. How will this pandemic come to an end?

Current scientific understanding is that only a vaccine will put an end to this pandemic, but how we get there remains to be seen. It seems safe to say, however, that some day, somehow, it will end. After all, other viral pandemics have. Take, for example, the flu pandemic of 1918-1919.

That pandemic was the deadliest in the 20th century; it infected about 500 million people and killed at least 50 million, including 675,000 in the United States.

https://time.com/5894403/how-the-19...al&utm_term=history_covid-19&linkId=101385112
 
Just a side-note: A story from my Mom, at the start of this pandemic.
Her father's brother was stationed on the East coast at a US military base.
My grandpa was notified that his brother had come done with the (1918) flu.
He immediately left home to see his sick brother. When he arrived his brother had died.
Family stories are meant to be treasured, listen to your elders. :)
 
Not convinced by her argument. The 1918 pandemic did end when it was displaced in 1957. It did make a comeback about twenty years later but was again displaced in 2009 by our current flavour of H1N1. HIV is a classic pandemic and is doing fine. The colds we get in winter came from animals and have not ended they are just endemic diseases. I see no reason why this corona virus should not follow the same path. Unless the vaccines produced a much more potent immune response than a natural infection then we should expect to be susceptible to reinfection within a couple of years. Even if it was 100% effective at stopping infection and shedding we would need to produce and distribute about 3 billion doses annually to maintain herd immunity. I see no likely route to eradication we are going to have to live with this for a while and hope the vaccines can give a good level of protection for some years against severe disease and a new host/pathogen equilibrium can be reached that is less painful to the host.
 
I just wanted to say that I am not spending much time on the US because it is so widely published that we are screwed. I try to spend my time on lessor known situations, like China developments. The combination of the US media and the various tracking sites do a good job of letting everyone know where the hot spots are and what the general situation is. Please refer to your local news frequently to see what is happening in your local area.

If you are in the US just assume you are living in an environment where COVID-19 is prevalent. Act accordingly. As this site said in the spring - you are responsible for protecting yourself. Do not wait for the government. I related several times on previous threads my experiences with hurricane relief (not). I also said not to wait for vaccines.

So, bottom line, no matter what the government does, it is spread so thin that you personally will barely feel any results of their efforts. Establish your own "flu friend" network and support group.

Take care everyone.
 
It is beginning to look as if this is going to have significant seasonality like the other respiratory diseases. However Argentina's epi-curve is looking very European which I take to be evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is perfectly happy anywhere we are if there are enough contacts between potential host. In the absence of ubiquitous rapid testing physical distancing and increased population immunity, by either prior infection or vaccination, seem to be our main line of defense.
 
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