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Discussion thread VI - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

Emily posted this link to a short news interview which is much the best explanation of our current situation I have seen. I would highly recommend it.
https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1425086490002997248

"Herd immunity is not a possibility" because the Delta variant "still infects vaccinated individuals". Professor Sir Andrew Pollard, director of the Oxford Vaccine Group.
I think this could be interpreted as a peculiar to the Delta variant but I think, hope, he just meant that is currently the case because that is the dominant UK strain at present. All the strains can cause infections in those who have been previously vaccinated or infected. Even if they reduce infection by 50%, due to the much higher R(0) of SARS-CoV-2, that still leaves it more contagious than seasonal flu.
 
gs the vaccine is very effective and I am not sure we can improve it by much. While there are better vaccines I do not know of any as good as these are for a respiratory disease. Those that do give long lasting high levels of steralising immunity tend to be for viremic conditions where antibodies can intercept the virus in the blood. What we can do is cut the number of hospitalisations by getting more people vaccinated. Tinkering with vaccine formulation to better target the current top variant will make little difference as it will just promote a different vaccine escape strain and we will be forever chasing our tail.
 
11 hours ago - Health

New data on coronavirus vaccine effectiveness may be "a wakeup call"


Caitlin Owens


A new preprint study that raises concerns about the mRNA vaccines' effectiveness against Delta — particularly Pfizer's — has already grabbed the attention of top Biden administration officials.

What they're saying: The study found the Pfizer vaccine was only 42% effective against infection in July, when the Delta variant was dominant. "If that's not a wakeup call, I don't know what is," a senior Biden official told Axios.

Driving the news: The study, conducted by nference and the Mayo Clinic, compared the effectiveness of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines in the Mayo Clinic Health System over time from January to July.
  • Overall, it found that the Moderna vaccine was 86% effective against infection over the study period, and Pfizer's was 76%. Moderna's vaccine was 92% effective against hospitalization and Pfizer's was 85%.
  • But the vaccines' effectiveness against infection dropped sharply in July, when the Delta variant's prevalence in Minnesota had risen to over 70%.
  • Moderna was 76% effective against infection, and Pfizer was only 42% effective.
  • The study found similar results in other states. For example, in Florida, the risk of infection in July for people fully vaccinated with Moderna was about 60% lower than for people fully vaccinated with Pfizer.
...
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-v...den-e9be4bb0-3d10-4f56-8054-5410be357070.html
 
Re the article Pathfinder linked to above.
The data is weak to support the July drop which the unnamed senior Biden official highlights. The research is thorough and the methods are good but the picked highlight comes from this data table.
Click image for larger version Name: vax comp.JPG Views: 1 Size: 89.4 KB ID: 921533

Table A shows Pfizer (blue) following a steady drop over time up until June which would hit 75% if it continued into July. The brown Modern line had its wobble in June and miraculously returned to track in July. The other point to note is the shading which marks the 95% confidence limits which are enormous.

Table B shows no matching pattern, in fact Modern's poor June showing in table A coincides with its best month in table B

Graph C shows Delta and Alpha switching in June.

To assume that the switch in variants caused wobbles in table A makes little sense particularly as the both vaccines contained identical S gene RNA sequences and they only varied in their lipid capsule. If the delivery vehicle was going to make a difference it would be in vaccine uptake not longevity or ability to deal with variants, which is why I bothered to go back to the data and methods. The paper is sound the 42% is an over interpretation of the data. Had the study been stopped in June the headline would be Modern is only 62% effective while Pfizer is 80%.
Full paper link https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...07v1.full-text
 
I cannot find any interviews between Axios representatives and senior White House officials.
I find it a bit surprising that the White House would be talking about a Mayo Clinic preprint to an on-line website.
 
I do not post a lot about the US because as I said many months ago, our situation is a ****show. Everyone has to take of themselves. Evaluate your risk and act accordingly. It is not that I think things are going well in the US, it is just that COVID-19 related events are well covered as opposed to some other countries. So I spend my time on lesser covered geographic areas.

If you are in the US, stay tuned to international, national, local news. Assume there is media bias but try to form a general trend consensus after viewing at least 2 sources.

Do not take medical advice from the internet. Consult your medical practitioner.

Use your common sense.

Only you can take care of you.


Disclosure: I am fully vaccinated and I carry a mask.
 
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it was 95% effective now it's 75%-80% against delta, even if we ignore Israel,Iceland,UK,Singapore.
A delta vaccine should bring it back to 95%, (against symptomatic infection) no ?
 
gs I suspect you are right and if you reformulate to match the Delta strain you will increase protection against that strain, at the cost of reducing protection against everything else. What I expect would then happen is another strain, which is not so well matched to the vaccine, will then replace Delta as the dominant variant.
 
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I see multiple examples (>5), that Moderna has better effectiveness than Pfizer/BNT.
And none vice versa..
And we have the drop in Israel,Iceland,Singapore.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
see this chart from Utah : http://magictour.free.fr/utah1.GIF
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.09.21261554v1
I wished we had that from other States/Counties/Nations.
CDC ? PHE ?
But better VE over time than BT% over vaxed%
And VE over time since 2nd dose
And for BNT,Mod,AZ separately.
I assume this is politically not wanted since it might
hurt the vaccination campaign.
 
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gs in all but one of the data points in the graph above Moderna does pip P/BNT but not by much and both are very good at preventing illness.
The PHE reports (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct..._week_30.pdf&usg=AOvVaw3d97aiG_R61AH7yBkdC0-Y) do give comparative data VE across different vaccines and between variants showing Moderna, P/BNT, AZ & natural infection getting progressively less protective in that order.
Protection from any of these sources in going to improve (via somatic hypermutation) while there are still viral proteins for the APCs to collect and present, from then on it will wane. This is just basic immune kinetics and there is little we can do about this. It may be possible to use a simple protein based vaccine with a mix of variant specific peptides to use this mechanism to up variant protection.

I think what you are looking for will come but, as graph C above shows, Delta did not become dominant until July (in Minnesota) and it then takes time to build up enough case data to adequately power a study and more time to analyze and publish.

"But better VE over time than BT% over vaxed%" What do you mean by BT?
 
BT=breakthrough.
I kept searching for "breakthrough" and {US-State,Country} since CDC only collects BT-hospitalizations
my current file where I put BT-snippets:
http://magictour.free.fr/bt.txt
BT-links :
CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html
SD-County: https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/cont...mmunity_epidemiology/dc/2019-nCoV/status.html
LA-County: http://www.ph.lacounty.gov/media/Coronavirus/data/reopening-dashboard.htm
OK: https://oklahoma.gov/covid19/newsroom/weekly-epidemiology-and-surveillance-report.html
AR: https://www.healthy.arkansas.gov/programs-services/topics/covid-19-reports
VA: https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/corona...nsights/covid-19-cases-by-vaccination-status/
CA: https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/Post-Vaccine-COVID19-Cases.aspx
ICE: https://www.covid.is/data
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-...-keeping-covid-breakthrough-cases-under-wraps
 
Now we have an estimate of 3.6 million excess deaths in India in wave 2



if the wave in USA were similar as in India in April/May and

if there were as little natural immunity and vaccination as there was in India and

if NPIs were as in India , and if the agestructure of deaths were the same for India

and USA as it was in USA in previous waves and

if healthcare were the same as in India



then I calculate 2.54million deaths for USA in this wave.




USA has only 1/4 of India's population but people are older average and

thus more at risk to die from COVID..



So, that's the estimate if SARS2 had been delta in March 2020 with little NPIs,

as was planned until Ferguson came with his estimate on Mar 11.

We didn't really know in March 2020, how conragious it was.
 
We warned on the pandemic that people have the ultimate responsibility for themselves but never imagined the negligent sudden abandonment of the people in Afghanistan. Epic failure to safeguard.

Afghanistan - Not a political thread: Potential large public health threat as government falls - August 15, 2021 - population total is approx. 38 million




FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
·
Feb 18, 2020

Truth -

Hurricane in Fla in August - despite gov efforts - you are responsible for
you. You do not see the gov around & they commandeer the only ice
manufacturer.

Little food,no ice,no power.Lines at gas stations.

Do not depend on any gov to help you.

#COVID19 #coronavirus

-----------------------------------------------

FluTrackers.com
@FluTrackers
·
Sep 9, 2020

Everyone has to take personal responsibility for their own safety. The
governments can't/won't/too inept/slow to do it properly. We said this early
on. Don't depend on the govs.
 
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