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Discussion thread IV - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

I read yesterday that Germany isn't testing post-mortem cases, so many of the deaths might not be attributed to COVID-19.
 
For those who still consider COVID-19 no worse than seasonal flu, consider that, with a population just under 84M, Italy would typically see ~20k deaths in a flu season, assuming 25% attack rate and 0.1% CFR. As of today, there have been over 10k deaths from COVID-19 in just a few weeks, and significant outbreaks have not yet been seen in many parts of Italy.

In my humble opinion, I believe we have to be prepared for at least 10x the deaths as compared with a typical flu season. It won't surprise me if there are over 1M deaths in the U.S. by the end of this year and 100M globally. I have been hoping for some indication that this can be slowed, but I haven't seen it. A few weeks ago, Hong Kong, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, and Taiwan were held up as examples of effective control measures, and until this week it seemed that their control measures had been effective. But, this week, cases have begun to increase again in all five countries, particularly in South Korea and Malaysia, and although they might have successfully delayed the first outbreaks, I fear that outbreaks will come in waves until an effective treatment is broadly available or herd immunity is achieved.
 
Danish researchers have developed cheap corona test - to be disseminated in Denmark and abroad

“What we have developed over the past few weeks is an alternative method that is completely independent of robots, kits and chemistry. ​
We do something as simple as taking a swab at grafting and warming it up to 98 degrees for five minutes. ​
It actually gives as good a result as if you run it on the expensive, fine robots, ”says Anders Fomsgaard, who got the idea for the test
. . . .
They have now sent the recipe for the new method to colleagues in, among others, Spain, where there is an acute shortage of tests, and also at home they are spreading the method."
https://www.berlingske.dk/nyheder/da...s-i-danmark-og​
 
Prakriti Gaba
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Last night in the ICU of a #NYC hospital, I cared for 20 patients who were all on breathing machines due to #COVID19. Some REALLY young (20s), without comorbidities. Everyone is extremely sick. But sicker patients keep flooding in…
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Hospital staff are exhausted & honestly - scared. Our healthcare system is in survival mode...
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But I have never been prouder to be a physician in #NewYorkCity. My incredible colleagues - everyone - is rising to the occasion. We are doing our best. We will get through this together.
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JimO. daths from all causes were increased 5fold in Lombardy-regions. Just wait 1-2 weeks until this shows up at euromomo ==> 0.8% of the whole population dying in such a wave (with Italian measures) would be 2.5M in USA
https://www.euromomo.eu/outputs/zscore_country_total.html
we need to reactivate the 122-cities weekly mortality system in USA , cities/states must know it know so to decide upon measures
 
Just wanted to let people know that I saw hand sanitizer for sale on Etsy. It was reasonably priced and the crafter seemed to be making it in some sort of approved facility. I haven't looked into that deeply so can't recommend that route but it might be something to investigate. We made our own with a bottle of 91% alcohol and some aloe get we had on hand. Unscented aloe gel is pretty much gone now at my usual online sources and of course, rubbing alcohol seems to be gone everywhere.
 
Choir practice turns fatal. Airborne coronavirus strongly suspected

By RICHARD READSEATTLE BUREAU CHIEF
MARCH 29, 2020
7:34 PM
MOUNT VERNON, Wash. —


With the coronavirus quickly spreading in Washington state in early March, leaders of the Skagit Valley Chorale debated whether to go ahead with weekly rehearsal.

The virus was already killing people in the Seattle area, about an hour’s drive to the south.

But Skagit County hadn’t reported any cases, schools and businesses remained open, and prohibitions on large gatherings had yet to be announced.

On March 6, Adam Burdick, the choir’s conductor, informed the 121 members in an email that amid the “stress and strain of concerns about the virus,” practice would proceed as scheduled at Mount Vernon Presbyterian Church.

Sixty singers showed up. A greeter offered hand sanitizer at the door, and members refrained from the usual hugs and handshakes.

“It seemed like a normal rehearsal, except that choirs are huggy places,” Burdick recalled. “We were making music and trying to keep a certain distance between each other.”

After 2? hours, the singers parted ways at 9 p.m.

Nearly three weeks later, 45 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or ill with the symptoms, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead.

The outbreak has stunned county health officials, who have concluded that the virus was almost certainly transmitted through the air from one or more people without symptoms.

Los Angeles TImes - https://lat.ms/2JnJLK7
 
Likely, the distance kept between the members was less than the recommended 6 feet...just a thought.
 
Transmitted by saliva?

Translation Google

Experts recently found that the new crown virus may float for a short time in an enclosed space

2020-03-02Source: times amiableread number: 638Share

The Japanese Society of Infectious Diseases and the Japanese Society of Environmental Infectious Diseases have published their opinions that the new coronavirus has the possibility of floating in the air in a closed space for a very short time and infecting others. Although it is difficult to prevent with ordinary masks, the risk can be reduced by ventilation. The two societies rejected the airborne infection in which the virus continued to float for a long time.

New virus infections are thought to include droplets of the virus that directly enter the mouth through coughing and sneezing, and viruses that spread by the cough, etc., that enter the body through contact.

On the other hand, in addition to cases where the virus is thought to have spread through tour group buses and houseboats without infections such as cough, infections by medical-related personnel and quarantine officers wearing masks and gloves have occurred.

The director of the Japan Society of Infectious Diseases, Takashi Ichida, said that droplets formed by coughing and so on are rich in water and will not float, but saliva generated by speech will spread with the virus and may be in the air in a short time float. Compared with droplets, it has little moisture and small volume, which is difficult to prevent by ordinary masks.

"This phenomenon is similar to the nosocomial infection caused by dust flying out of a patient's vomit in a short period of time," the director Tateda pointed out. He said it was important to avoid closed environments. Stand-up receptions and banquets in single rooms are very risky, but opening windows and using ventilators can be a measure of countermeasures.

Editor-in-Chief: Quan

https://yeeyi.com/news/index.php?app=home&act=article&aid=438185
 
Sure...it could travel that far, if one were coughing or sneezing, esp. indoors...but for an asymptomatic person, I think the 6 foot (2 meter) advice may be reasonable.
 
this is what the Govt. of Canada webpage says under prevention: "keeping a distance of at least 2 arms-length (approximately 2 metres) from others"
 
It is a long tradition not to make political posts on FluTrackers. We are not a political site.

As things get more tense it appears (and understandably) some participants are having trouble with this policy.

The problem is that once we start down the "blame game" road, it is never ending.

So to remind everyone not to make posts with political innuendo I have banned the names of the US President, The Speaker of the US House, and the US Senate Majority Leader, from the forum. These names will be displayed as ***** from now on. They have the status of swear words.

We need to focus on helping people and not become embroiled in the political war that is in the media.

We are one of the only non-political sites on earth and it serves our viewers well. Let's keep it this way.
 
I don't know where the data is that WHO used to determine the distancing(probably on their site somewhere, or their contributors sties) but I do know it is brought up regularly in the weekly broadcast meeting. They constantly reiterate that they use data for all of their stances on this virus. When the study came out weeks ago about the virus staying airborne for several hours they spoke directly to that study. That is where I heard the idea that it only does that when the virus is aerosolized in instances such as putting in or pulling out a tube from a patient (their doctors specifically talked to this one). They have definitely been consistent on the distancing. I would hope however if there is new or different data they would update. They have done that in the past as well so hopefully if there are more studies that say differently they can review and update as needed. They definitely have a voice to all the member states as well as the globe.
 
So when he says "ordinary masks" do you think he is referring to the typical surgical masks we see everyone wearing or is it also referring to N95 masks? I only ask because I am wondering if that is where the idea that masks are not needed in prevention in the everyday activities of a population (I always assumed that they said this because of the shortage and need for frontline workers).
 
unless things have changed.... and at the risk of repetition... regarding aerosols.. folks cough or sneeze into dry air (<40% RH), and the droplets become desiccated as they move through the air. the smaller droplets may desiccate to the point of becoming droplet nuclei. the droplet nuclei can attach to particles (ie, dust) floating in the air. large and small droplets fall to the floor within 6 feet. nuclei can remain suspended (attached to particles) in the air considerably longer (hours). folks can head off the formation of nuclei by keeping the humidity above 40%, so the droplets do not become desiccated when folks cough/sneeze -- and then they fall to the floor w/n 6 ft.

...folks can search for 'Tellier' and 'Aerosol Transmission of Influenza' - CDC EID around 2006-09 (?). this isn't flu, but corona is close size-wise...

fluboard folks discussed it at some length around then, when the studies came out, but i don't remember where - seems like it was fluwiki or pfi..
 
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