Coronavirus fatalities in the US, daily figures, charts.

[Ronan Kelly]

For the past several years, I have been plotting and comparing week to week influenza mortality data gathered by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance system. The number of coded flu deaths is only a part of the estimated flu deaths each week. I added US coronavirus deaths by week to the plot and got this:

I know it's not apples to apples, the estimated number of flu deaths is about 6 times higher than the numbers recorded by the NCHS, but there is every reason to believe that the actual number of coronavirus fatalities is also larger than the subset that gets confirmed. There has only been 4 weeks of data. Where is this going to end up?

[Ronan Kelly]

Coronavirus deaths each day:

3/18: 38
3/19: 43
3/20: 54
3/21: 79
3/22: 105
3/23: 124
3/24: 157
3/25: 220
3/26: 280
3/27: 361
3/28: 514

If the current rate of growth continues, we could see 6-10,000 additional coronavirus fatalities in the US within the next week ending the week on a toll of up to 2,000 deaths per day.

[etudiant]

There are about 7800 deaths per day on average in the US.
So the virus risks increasing the death rate by about 25%, concentrated among the older population.
Not sure that the economic collapse it generates has been factored in.

[etudiant]

The virus outbreak is actually reducing the national death rate!
The CDC keeps track of weekly mortality in the US and the data available for the most recent week (ending March 7) shows about 48,000 deaths, sharply down from the normal 55,000.

See: https://www.dropbox.com/s/2y2gvh2q7a...ences.pdf?dl=0

The chart is quite striking, the effect of the virus has been to make the US safer.

[JJackson]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_causes_of_death_by_rate

Looking at the graph at the link it is difficult to think of a mechanism. Nearly all the big killers are on the COVID comorbidity list. Things you would expect to fall like road deaths and homicides are way down the list.

[Ronan Kelly]

I'd be curious to see the completion rate of reporting this past few weeks.

[Emily]

Cardiovascular deaths are triggered by stress, so not commuting or being in toxic work environments might reduce those deaths for awhile in the vulnerable age group. Lots of people are posting videos about their pets and how relaxing it is to hang at home with them. Suicide is a big killer of the young and usually done while alone and if family is now working from home or not working, those deaths would be cut. Sudden deaths don't put a big strain on the critical care system like this pneumonia does, so that could explain why deaths are overall down but there is still a nightmare in the hospitals.

[Ronan Kelly]

I'm not sure how true the allegation of reduced overall mortality is, the dropbox link is no longer functional and then there's this;

False: “In Chicago, Covid-19 actually LOWERED the death rate.” : False
By Haley BeMillerApril 3, 2020
...


The examiner’s office handled 413 deaths in Chicago in March, according to its case archive as of April 2. At least 11 of them were tied to COVID-19, while other causes of death ranged from gunshot wounds to cardiovascular disease.
In March 2019, by comparison, the medical examiner saw 279 deaths in Chicago. There were 301 Chicago cases in March 2018 and 306 in March 2017.

These numbers show the virus doesn’t appear to be decreasing deaths as the Facebook post suggested. Instead, officials say it's likely the opposite.

"The uptick you are seeing is a direct correlation to the rise in COVID-19 cases," said Natalia Derevyanny, director of communications for the Cook County Bureau of Administration."
https://www.politifact.com/factcheck...te-drop-chica/

[Emily]

I agree there appears to have been an error in the dropbox data. Gsgs asked me about that and CDC seems to have all causes weekly mortality data only through 2018. 2019 will come out in June, I think. King County (Seattle) refers to CDC data so no way to tally the numbers for the whole country adding up county data for the past few weeks.

[Ronan Kelly]

Updated flu & covid chart - see first post for limitations
and a visual of how fatalities per day in the US are progressing.

[JJackson]

'A picture is worth a thousand words' personified. For anyone who still thinks COVID is 'just another flu' and overblown your graph is a neutralising antigen.
Ronan thanks.

[Ronan Kelly]

Coronavirus death toll in U.S. almost certainly higher than official count

COMMENTSBy Emma Brown, Beth Reinhard and Aaron C. Davis, The Washington Post
April 5, 2020 | 2:29 PM
The fast-spreading novel coronavirus is almost certainly killing Americans who are not included in the nation’s growing death toll, according to public health experts and government officials involved in the tally.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention counts only deaths in which the presence of the coronavirus is confirmed in a laboratory test. “We know that it is an underestimation,” agency spokeswoman Kristen Nordlund said.

A widespread lack of access to testing in the early weeks of the U.S. outbreak means people with respiratory illnesses died without being counted, epidemiologists say. Even now, some people who die at home or in overburdened nursing homes are not being tested, according to funeral directors, medical examiners and nursing home representatives.
...
https://www.boston.com/news/national...rus-death-toll

[Ronan Kelly]

Confirmed weekly flu deaths for the past 8 years and Confirmed weekly coronavirus deaths - see first post for limitations.

The most intense flu season was 2017-18 which tallied 15,430 Influenza deaths between weeks 40 and 20. The CDC then estimated the flu burden for that season at 61,000 (range 46,000-95,000). The highest flu week was week 3 of 2018 with 1,625 deaths. Using the CDC estimate as a guide, this corresponded with an 8 year maximum of perhaps 6,500 flu deaths in a week. This past week we saw 12,137 reported coronavirus deaths.



Daily coronavirus deaths

[Shiloh]

Scott Gottlieb: Coronavirus Would Have Been ‘Far More Deadly than Spanish Flu’ If It Appeared in 1918: https://www.nationalreview.com/news/...eared-in-1918/

[Ronan Kelly]

Using flu data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance system, the most intense flu season was 2017-18 which tallied 15,430 Influenza deaths between weeks 40 and 20. The CDC estimated the flu burden for that season at 61,000 (range 46,000-95,000). The highest flu week was week 3 of 2018 with 1,625 deaths. Using the CDC estimate as a guide, this corresponded with an 8 year maximum of approximately 6,500 flu deaths in a week. This past week we saw 18,225 reported coronavirus deaths.

[Ronan Kelly]

Daily reported fatalities:
Fatalities by week:

Flu death data from National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance system. The number of coded flu deaths is only a part of the estimated flu deaths each week.

[Ronan Kelly]

Daily COVID deaths:


Fatalities by week:

Using flu data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance system, the most intense flu season was 2017-18 which tallied 15,430 coded Influenza deaths between weeks 40 and 20. The CDC estimated the flu burden for that season at 61,000 (range 46,000-95,000). The highest flu week was week 3 of 2018 with 1,625 deaths. Using the CDC estimate as a guide, this corresponded with an 8 year maximum of approximately 6,500 flu deaths in a week. This past week we saw 12,945 reported coronavirus deaths.

[gsgs]

here the yearly flu and covid induced mortality-hills in Europe :

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#z-scores-by-country

should we do such NPI-measures in s severe flu-season ?

[Ronan Kelly]

Daily fatalities:



Using flu data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance system, the most intense flu season was 2017-18 which tallied 15,430 Influenza deaths between weeks 40 and 20. The CDC estimated the flu burden for that season at 61,000 (range 46,000-95,000). The highest flu week was week 3 of 2018 with 1,625 deaths. Using the CDC estimate as a guide, this corresponded with an 8 year maximum of approximately 6,500 flu deaths in a week.


Week // Coronavirus fatalities

Week 9: 1

Week 10: 16

Week 11: 49

Week 12: 265

Week 13: 1,760

Week 14: 6,259

Week 15: 12,137

Week 16: 18,225

Week 17: 14,760

Week 18: 12,945

Week 19: 12,298

[Ronan Kelly]

Daily fatalities:



Week // Coronavirus fatalities

Week 9: 1

Week 10: 16

Week 11: 49

Week 12: 265

Week 13: 1,760

Week 14: 6,259

Week 15: 12,137

Week 16: 18,225

Week 17: 14,760

Week 18: 12,945

Week 19: 12,298

Week 20: 9,899