Translation Google
China's epidemic fears resurgence? German expert: See you in a month
Date 25.03.2020
Author Wen Mu (comprehensive report)
Chinese official statistics show that the epidemic situation in China has eased significantly, but some people doubt whether the real numbers are as optimistic as the official report. Analysts are worried that Beijing will put economic development above the containment of the virus. Authoritative German experts point out that as life around China gradually returns to normal, perhaps the epidemic will return in a month.
(Voice of German in Chinese) Hubei province lifted travel restrictions in most areas on Wednesday, and people's lives gradually returned to normal. The number of confirmed cases in China has been decreasing in the past three weeks, and Wuhan has not found any new local cases for four consecutive days from March 18 to 21.
Although some public health experts and official Chinese figures have stated that China's epidemic situation has improved, many are wondering whether the numbers are as optimistic as officially reported as cities begin to rework. Some people have questioned the official near-zero additions. The New York Times reported that China first announced zero cases of local infection last week, but then Chinese social media circulated notice photos from some communities in Wuhan, which appeared to announce new cases.
"The Guardian" quoted a 26-year-old Chinese resident as saying: "I'm really worried that there are still many asymptomatic infected people in Wuhan. Everyone goes back to work and everyone gets infected." Another resident added "I don't believe (these numbers). This epidemic will not disappear so easily."
Some analysts pointed out that the Beijing government's initial efforts to suppress the epidemic-related information and rigorous review of public opinion have increased people's distrust of these figures. Ho-fung ****, a professor of political economy at Johns Hopkins University in the United States, said: "In December last year, in January this year, if there was no more credible and reliable the evidence is verified, and
we really cannot trust the data released by the Chinese government. "
Expert: The epidemic will definitely make a comeback
The New York Times pointed out that China's officially confirmed cases only include patients who have both symptomatic virus tests and are positive. This approach differs from WHO guidance. WHO believes that all infected persons who test positive for the virus should be considered confirmed, regardless of whether they have symptoms. The media quoted epidemiologists as saying that resumption of travel, work, and daily life could return to the spread of the virus, even if there were no new cases of infection.
Some experts have warned that a new round of infection is inevitable in China. Professor Benjamin Cowling of the School of Public Health of the University of Hong Kong said in an interview with Deutsche Canton: "Everyone is alert to the outbreak of the second wave of outbreaks because China has already imported cases from abroad. When will a new wave of infection spread, It is only a matter of time when the number will rise and cause concern again. I don't know when China will break out again, but the epidemic will definitely appear again! "
Christian Drosten, a prominent virologist at the Charit? School of Medicine in Berlin, holds the same view, and the coronavirus expert is also considered to be one of the most important experts in German epidemic prevention. In an interview program aired on March 18, Drosten said of the slowdown in China ’s epidemic: "I think the number of people in China will rise again. We see that the number of people who return from Italy, the number of people who are quarantined, and not many, so as to avoid overseas input.
At the same time, there are only 3 newly diagnosed people, and now no one will believe such data. Nowadays people are no longer isolated, their lives are gradually returning to normal, and the epidemic will come back. We can wait for a month, this after a wave of deaths has passed, the number of infections will rise again. The exact number of deaths is not easy to hide. I think we will see what the situation is like in China in a month. "
Economic benefits matter most?
The Kyodo News reported last weekend that a local doctor in Wuhan stated that
the number of infected cases had been manipulated before Xi Jinping went to Hubei earlier this month.
Wang Dan, an economic analyst, told Deguang that
China is facing a severe recession in the export and retail industries, the service industry in large cities is still experiencing a recession, and many companies have not yet operated normally. The Chinese leadership wants to speed up, but also encounters some resistance: "Chinese leaders are doing everything they can to get people back to work. But governments everywhere have good reasons for people to wait for factories to restart and run. Because if the number of infected people rises again, , their political career is over. "
Some analysts worry that Beijing's top leaders will put the restart of the economy on top of containing the virus. The Guardian quoted Victor Shih, an associate professor of Chinese politics at the University of California, San Diego, as saying that the Chinese leadership attaches great importance to restoring the economy:
"One way to restore the economy without causing panic is to cover up the true situation of the epidemic, At the same time, the best efforts are still being made to track and control the outbreak. This approach may lead to a new outbreak, but it seems that the government is willing to take this risk. "
https://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9...%93/a-52912473
