Well, another one of those days where I keep reading FT every few hours and asking myself how what I'm reading is possible. Monkeypox has now been reported domestically in the UK, Spain, Portugal, Canada, and a case in the US imported from Canada. If this really is a single outbreak due to efficient H2H spread, we're on the verge of something unthinkable. The problem is, if this were the case, I'd have expected more than the few dozen cases reported to this point. If the virus has really mutated to spread more efficiently H2H to cause this outbreak, a pandemic far worse than COVID-19 would be imminent.
So what are the other possible explanations? Could this not be an H2H outbreak at all? Could infected animals or animal products have been distributed throughout North America and Europe? One thing that has been running through my mind repeatedly today is the possibility of contaminated animal skin condoms having been distributed in multiple countries, explaining the possible sexual transmissions.
Could this be a bioterrorist attack, perhaps targeted at the LGBT communities in multiple nations? A group like Boko Haram might certainly be able to obtain this virus from an animal source, but coordinating an attack on multiple nations like this would be difficult? And what would be the method of dispersal? Spraying the virus in gay clubs?
Is it possible that this is a Russian bio-attack on NATO over the war in Ukraine? We know the Soviet Union weaponized the smallpox virus in the 1970s, so it's not too inconceivable there could have been work on monkeypox as well. But sequencing the virus should tell us relatively soon if this is similar to natural strains in West Africa, and if this is not, that would almost certainly trigger a World War. If the virus is indeed fully natural, this scenario seems unlikely simply because of the response it would trigger. My mind shudders at this explanation and its possible consequences almost as badly as it does the thought of the virus naturally going pandemic.
If this virus has indeed gained the ability to transmit more efficiently, whatever the method of mutation, the other question is why it keeps being detected in isolated cases and not large hospital clusters like the original SARS outbreak did. We have a large geographical spread of this outbreak, but not a huge number of cases.
The timing is also suspect here. All these cases have essentially the same onset date, not in generations a couple weeks apart as would be suspected if this were multiple generations of H2H spread from a point source like an importation or release.
Very odd....
So what are the other possible explanations? Could this not be an H2H outbreak at all? Could infected animals or animal products have been distributed throughout North America and Europe? One thing that has been running through my mind repeatedly today is the possibility of contaminated animal skin condoms having been distributed in multiple countries, explaining the possible sexual transmissions.
Could this be a bioterrorist attack, perhaps targeted at the LGBT communities in multiple nations? A group like Boko Haram might certainly be able to obtain this virus from an animal source, but coordinating an attack on multiple nations like this would be difficult? And what would be the method of dispersal? Spraying the virus in gay clubs?
Is it possible that this is a Russian bio-attack on NATO over the war in Ukraine? We know the Soviet Union weaponized the smallpox virus in the 1970s, so it's not too inconceivable there could have been work on monkeypox as well. But sequencing the virus should tell us relatively soon if this is similar to natural strains in West Africa, and if this is not, that would almost certainly trigger a World War. If the virus is indeed fully natural, this scenario seems unlikely simply because of the response it would trigger. My mind shudders at this explanation and its possible consequences almost as badly as it does the thought of the virus naturally going pandemic.
If this virus has indeed gained the ability to transmit more efficiently, whatever the method of mutation, the other question is why it keeps being detected in isolated cases and not large hospital clusters like the original SARS outbreak did. We have a large geographical spread of this outbreak, but not a huge number of cases.
The timing is also suspect here. All these cases have essentially the same onset date, not in generations a couple weeks apart as would be suspected if this were multiple generations of H2H spread from a point source like an importation or release.
Very odd....
