• FluTrackers.com Inc. does not provide medical advice. Information on this web site is collected from various internet resources, and the FluTrackers board of directors makes no warranty to the safety, efficacy, correctness or completeness of the information posted on this site by any author or poster. The information collated here is for instructional and/or discussion purposes only and is NOT intended to diagnose or treat any disease, illness, or other medical condition. Every individual reader or poster should seek advice from their personal physician/healthcare practitioner before considering or using any interventions that are discussed on this website. By continuing to access this website you agree to consult your personal physican before using any interventions posted on this website, and you agree to hold harmless FluTrackers.com Inc., the board of directors, the members, and all authors and posters for any effects from use of any medication, supplement, vitamin or other substance, device, intervention, etc. mentioned in posts on this website, or other internet venues referenced in posts on this website.
  • We are not asking for any donations. Do not donate to any entity who says they are raising funds for us.

Discussion - Thoughts on a global outbreak of monkeypox

https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/98857
Draft Genome Sequence of Latest Monkeypox Virus Unveiled

— No indication latest strain is "substantially different" from those circulating in recent years

by Sophie Putka, Enterprise & Investigative Writer, MedPage Today May 20, 2022
The latest monkeypox virus now popping up in multiple countries appears most closely related to a strain that circulated in 2018-2019, according to a draft genome sequence of a recent case.

Sequencing of a skin lesion sample from an infected male patient in Portugal -- where at least 20 confirmed cases have been reported -- suggests the latest monkeypox virus belongs to the West African clade. It is most closely related to cases that spread from Nigeria to the U.K., Israel, and Singapore in 2018 and 2019, reported João Paulo Gomes, PhD, of the National Health Institute Doutor Ricardo Jorge in Lisbon, and colleagues.

The group, who published their findings on the preprint server virological.org, said the draft genome sequence "will certainly contribute to better understand the epidemiology, sources of infection, and transmission patterns."..
 
Very interesting. Nordic is headquartered in the same city where the first monkeypox outbreak occurred in 1958 in lab monkeys.

"In a bizarre coincidence, Bavarian Nordic held a meeting with Heymann and nine other public health leaders from around the world this week, planned 6 months ago, to discuss the need for more countries to stockpile its vaccine, given the increase in monkeypox cases over the past few years. "
 
I'm glad this monkeypox virus looks like the SOS. Otherwise, this crazy tabletop exercise from last year might worry me.

https://www.nti.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/NTI_Paper_BIO-TTX_Final.pdf
Jaime M. Yassif, Ph.D.
Kevin P. O’Prey, Ph.D.
Christopher R. Isaac, M.Sc.
Strengthening Global Systems
to Prevent and Respond to
High-Consequence Biological Threats
Results from the 2021 Tabletop Exercise Conducted in
Partnership with the Munich Security Conference
SUMMARY
In March 2021, NTI partnered with the Munich Security Conference to
conduct a tabletop exercise on reducing high-consequence biological threats.
The exercise examined gaps in national and international biosecurity and
pandemic preparedness architectures—exploring opportunities to improve
prevention and response capabilities for high-consequence biological
events. This report summarizes the exercise scenario, key findings from
the discussion, and actionable recommendations for the international
community
....

Move 3(May 10, 2023) occurred 12 months after the initial outbreak, with more than 480 million cases and
27 million fatalities globally (Figure 4). At this stage, participants learn that the pandemic was caused by a
regional bio-terror attack that far exceeded the perpetrators’ goals.

Specifically, Brinian intelligence reveals that the engineered monkeypox virus was developed illicitly at
the fictional country of Arnica’s leading institute for virology. Arnica (population 75 million) has a history
of conflict with neighboring Brinia (see map in Figure 5). An independent Arnican terrorist group—the
SPA—had worked with sympathetic laboratory scientists to
engineer a highly contagious, deadly pathogen and disperse
it at crowded train stations in Brinia during the national
holiday, when much of the population was travelling
domestically and internationally.
The SPA had exploited the Arnican government’s weak
oversight of its bioscience research laboratories. SPA
sympathizers working in Arnica’s leading virology institute
used publicly available scientific publications to guide their
work to modify the monkeypox virus to make it more
transmissible and resistant to currently available vaccines.
The discussion in Move 3 focused on governance of dual-
use bioscience research as well as current weaknesses in
biosafety and biosecurity systems that exacerbate biological
risks...
 
In possible relation to the case from Gran Canaria, there was a pride festival (Gay Pride Maspalomas) between 5/5/22 and 15/5/22 on Gran Canaria.

Although it is important not to place any stigma upon these cases, as cautioned by others, this may be relevant as it could possibly explain why so many same generation cases were found in people in different places, if these cases were attained at a shared holiday destination.
Notably, Canary Islands are a popular destination for Spanish, Portugese and British Travellers.
Hopefully Epi interviews would elucidate any shared transmission sites.
 
The NCBI databank now has a complete sequence (MPXV_USA_2022_MA001 # ON563414) which is aligned with the sequences anticipated as being the problem branch in my original post in this thread ( see phylogenetic tree in post #5 ) note in particular MN648051 (Israel 2018) which is the closest match and I used for my alignment giving a 99.96% homology or about 80 SNPs over the full genome. This is rather more than the ~20 SNPs (estimated from branch length) indicated in the Virological.org partial Portuguese sequence Monkeypox/PT0001/2022.

Click image for larger version Name: Monkeypox3.JPG Views: 2 Size: 48.6 KB ID: 949438


My speculative working hypothesis at this point is that drift in the WA branch of the genome has allowed pre-symptomatic - or possibly asymptomatic - infection via the anal mucosa which has not come to light in West Africa where homosexuality is largely taboo. Introduction into more liberal areas has allowed spread and, if not contained, will allow further adaption. If this is correct then the vaginal mucosa is also likely to be a target. Endoscopic examination of the anal cavity would seem a logical step looking for lesions.
 
I mean, well sure, the USSR worked on it. But they also worked on a lot of other nasty stuff, including weaponized forms of plague, smallpox, anthrax, etc. The source cited in this article hasn't been in Russia in almost 30 years.
 
Welcome willra1 and thanks for the link.

They have very kindly selected a convenient root and each node gives all the changes since the root and the function of the proteins in which they fall - where the function is know.
 
The paper I linked to in post #9.1 gives the incubation period as 10-14 days in MPV in humans. The paper is from 2004 and probably relates to the Congo Basin strain so may not be relevant to this phenotype.
 
Welcome and thank you for the insight. Seems a nexus of unfortunate timing. If the index case had been a couple of weeks earlier in London, or GPM was a couple of weeks later...it would have been easier to stop the spread.
 
Thanks Emily (& Sharon). Yes, it seems like the moons aligned in an unfortunate way. BTW, is it known for sure that the index case was from London? UK has seen a few sporadic imported cases over the last few years but there is also the possibility of the index case being in the canaries itself. It is an attractive site for migration from West Africa and it is possible (pure speculation, sorry) that it could be a migrant worker in a hotel, for example. The earliest swab sample data I have seen recorded on the internet was May 4th in Portugal which puts the potential index case at mid April onwards. Fingers crossed that the unfortunate coincidences hypothesis is true....
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top