China: Human H5N1 Cases for 2009

[Into The Woods]

China's Perilous Position May Influence Disclosure

China's Perilous Position May Influence Disclosure

China is already in a precarious position. I would not anticipate that their government would, for the forseeable future, maintain even their historically dismal level of public disclosure on H5N1.

The predictions of hard economic landing are starting to include suggestions that hint that a crash landing might be a more appropriate description - with some analysts predicting 0-1% growth for 2009. Even at 5-7% growth, the challenges faced by the Chinese government of preventing significant civil unrest will place increasing pressures on both their fiscal and political position.

Added to this already volitile mix are a number of significant dates that could provide a spark to what could be a large and growing pond of gasoline: March 10, 2009 is the 50th anniversary of the failed Tibetan armed rebellion against Chinese rule, and June 4, 2009 is the 20th anniversary of the masacre of protesters in Tiananmen Square.

These factors do not prove either that an H5N1 outbreak is occurring or that the Chinese government is covering it up. But I belive that the convergence of current economic/political conditions with these significant anniversaries might give us even more reason to doubt the willingness of the Chinese government to confront any crisis with transparency.

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

I hope people will not attempt to repeat the tragic experience of USSR collapse in 1991, when around 1,6 millions of people died because of economy and health infrastructure meltdown, according some new estimates.

I think it's interest of world safety to see a strong China fights for salvage its economy and the recent increase in wealth of part of its population.

It is not the interest of either us and Chinese people to see a State collapse similar to 1991 USSR one, with 1,2 billions of people raging around for food and survival.

Also, China encompasses a multitude of ethnic groups and cultures, languages and faiths; should a civil war in a similar scenario have to spark, nobody could say the possible results.

Past disasters in former Yugoslavija states and in USSR Republics (Caucasus, with Cechnya, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijian) should keep our mind well cold and everyone should also take into account that an institutional collapse today may mean global disaster tomorrow.

 

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

....everyone should also take into account that an institutional collapse today may mean global disaster tomorrow.

We are indeed a global family.

.

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

We are indeed a global family.

.

yes.

Further, Balkans disaster has been seen as one of the cause of the resurgence of other part of the world troubles - and I use the word ''trouble'' to stay at soft...

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

yes.

Further, Balkans disaster has been seen as one of the cause of the resurgence of other part of the world troubles - and I use the word ''trouble'' to stay at soft...

From The Lancet:

Mass privatisation and the post-communist mortality crisis: a cross-national analysis

David Stuckler, Lawrence King, Martin McKee

Summary

Background
During the early-1990s, adult mortality rates rose in most post-communist European countries. Substantial differences across countries and over time remain unexplained. Although previous studies have suggested that the pace of economic transition was a key driver of increased mortality rates, to our knowledge no study has empirically assessed the role of specific components of transition policies. We investigated whether mass privatisation can account for differences in adult mortality rates in such countries.

Methods
We used multivariate longitudinal regression to analyse age-standardised mortality rates in working-age men (15?59 years) in post-communist countries of eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union from 1989 to 2002. We defined mass privatisation programmes as transferring at least 25% of large state-owned enterprises to the private sector within 2 years with the use of vouchers and give-aways to firm insiders. To isolate the effect of mass privatisation, we used models to control for price and trade liberalisation, income change, initial country conditions, structural predispositions to higher mortality, and other potential confounders.

Findings
Mass privatisation programmes were associated with an increase in short-term adult male mortality rates of 12?8% (95% CI 7?9?17?7; p<0?0001), with similar results for the alternative privatisation indices from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (7?8% [95% CI 2?8?13?0]). One mediating factor could be male unemployment rates, which were increased substantially by mass privatisation (56?3% [28?3?84?3]; p<0?0001). Each 1% increase in the percentage of population who were members of at least one social organisation decreased the association of privatisation with mortality by 0?27%; when more than 45% of a population was a member of at least one social organisation, privatisation was no longer significantly associated with increased mortality rates (3?4% [95% CI ?5?4 to 12?3]; p=0?44).

Interpretation
Rapid mass privatisation as an economic transition strategy was a crucial determinant of differences in adult mortality trends in post-communist countries; the effect of privatisation was reduced if social capital was high. These findings might be relevant to other countries in which similar policies are being considered.
-
http://press.thelancet.com/privatisationfinal.pdf
-----

 

[HenryN]

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

Wednesday February 4, 2009

Bird flu virus still cause for concern - experts

By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Editor

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The H5N1 bird flu virus, which has now sickened more than 400 people globally, is infecting birds and people all across China and is still a cause for serious concern, flu experts said on Tuesday.
<TABLE width="20%" align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>

</TD></TR><TR><TD>World Health Organization's Keiji Fukuda talks during an interview with Reuters in Antalya in this March 19, 2007 file photo. (REUTERS/Fatih Saribas)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Recent cases are the expected winter seasonal surge seen for many types of viruses, they said, and there is no evidence that it is mutating into a more dangerous form.
"In the past three months, we have continued to see a great deal of activity," Dr. Keiji Fukuda of the World Health Organization told reporters.
Chinese officials confirmed a new case on Monday in a 23-year-old woman in Hunan province, who was being treated.
All the patients were around chickens, so there is little concern that people are passing the virus to one anther, the flu experts told a news briefing at a meeting in Washington of the Infectious Diseases Society of America.
"These cases and the widespread nature of them continue to point out how persistent this virus is and how widespread it is," Fukuda said. "We believe that the threat of pandemic influenza remains as high as ever."
Since 2003, the H5N1 avian influenza virus has infected 404 people in 15 countries and killed 254 of them. It has killed or forced the destruction of more than 300 million birds as it spread to 61 countries in Asia, the Middle East, Europe and Africa.
"This is a very unusual virus and the reason why it so unusual is that it is probably the most lethal influenza virus that has ever been discovered," Fukuda said.
AMAZING ABILITY TO KILL
"It really has an amazing ability to kill a variety of birds and mammals, including people."
Fukuda said China had investigated each case thoroughly, and he did not see any especially worrying signs in the eight recent cases.
"It has been noticed that the people who have been infected are spread across a wide area of China. What that tells us is that the virus is widespread in China. But we have known for a long time that it is widespread in Southeast Asia in general," he said.
It is also known that vaccinating birds against H5N1 is not 100 percent effective, so it is not surprising that individual birds would become infected and spread the virus to people, he said.
While H5N1 rarely infects people, experts fear it could mutate into a form that people could easily pass to one another, sparking a pandemic that could kill tens of millions and topple the global economy.
Dr. Nancy Cox of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said while the virus is mutating steadily, it is not taking on any startling changes yet.
"We have not seen changes in the genes of H5N1 viruses that would be indicative of the kind of change that we would expect were the virus to become more transmissible from human to human," she said.
Fukuda and other experts praised China for being so quick to report and investigate each case.
"Hopefully, we will see this become the standard behavior for most countries," Fukuda said.
Experts say the odds of an influenza pandemic of some sort are 100 percent. No one can say when or where it might happen, or what strain of flu might cause it, and Fukuda noted that H5N1 is not the only threat.

http://thestar.com.my/news/story.as...01_NOOTR_RTRMDNC_0_-378221-1&sec=Worldupdates

 

[Rwilmer]

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

is this a new case? from the above article
Chinese officials confirmed a new case on Monday in a 23-year-old woman in Hunan province, who was being treated.

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

I hope people will not attempt to repeat the tragic experience of USSR collapse in 1991, when around 1,6 millions of people died because of economy and health infrastructure meltdown, according some new estimates.

I think it's interest of world safety to see a strong China fights for salvage its economy and the recent increase in wealth of part of its population.

It is not the interest of either us and Chinese people to see a State collapse similar to 1991 USSR one, with 1,2 billions of people raging around for food and survival.

Also, China encompasses a multitude of ethnic groups and cultures, languages and faiths; should a civil war in a similar scenario have to spark, nobody could say the possible results.

Past disasters in former Yugoslavija states and in USSR Republics (Caucasus, with Cechnya, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijian) should keep our mind well cold and everyone should also take into account that an institutional collapse today may mean global disaster tomorrow.

I agree.

 

[HenryN]

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

is this a new case? from the above article
Chinese officials confirmed a new case on Monday in a 23-year-old woman in Hunan province, who was being treated.

No, its just a reporter confusing the disease onset date (Jan 23) with the age of the victim (21F).

 

[Rwilmer]

Re: Russia: the Russian persons in charge do not draw aside the possibility of a blaze of avian flu in February

Re: Russia: the Russian persons in charge do not draw aside the possibility of a blaze of avian flu in February

Maybe they mean the two year old girl, did not have contact with birds. Niman did say that H2H was likely in that case. Got it from her mother.

 

[Laidback Al]

Re: Russia: the Russian persons in charge do not draw aside the possibility of a blaze of avian flu in February

Re: Russia: the Russian persons in charge do not draw aside the possibility of a blaze of avian flu in February

The official WHO updates state that each of the four most recent cases in China contracted H5N1 through exposure to infected poultry.
See:
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_01_27/en/index.html
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_02_02/en/index.html

For the 16 year old who was infected in Guizhou, no source of infection is noted.
See:
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_01_24/en/index.html

And for the three earlier cases, one of the three was exposed to infected poultry while the source of the infection of the other two is "under investigation."
See:
http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_01_19/en/index.html

 

[HenryN]

Re: Russia: the Russian persons in charge do not draw aside the possibility of a blaze of avian flu in February

Re: Russia: the Russian persons in charge do not draw aside the possibility of a blaze of avian flu in February

Maybe they mean the two year old girl, did not have contact with birds. Niman did say that H2H was likely in that case. Got it from her mother.

Although the disease onset dates point toward an infection of the 2F by her mother, both had contact with poultry because a relative sells poultry in Hunan. These two cases would not be in the "no poultry contact" list.

 

[Rwilmer]

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

Human bird flu cases under control

Source: CCTV.com | 02-07-2009 08:56
The Health Ministry says the human cases of bird flu discovered in seven provinces and municpalities have been brought under control.

The government has taken various measures to prevent the bird flu from spreading nationwide. The level two public health emergency alert has been lifted and prevention and public supervision work has returned to normal.

8 people in China have been diagnosed with the H5N1 strain of avian influenza since January this year. Five died and two have recovered including the first confirmed infant, a 3-year-old girl.



Editor:Liu Fan


http://www.cctv.com/english/20090207/101074.shtml

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

Hong Kong: Alice Ho Miu Ling Nethersole Hospital announces the update (2/7/2009) [CHP]

The following is issued on behalf of the Hospital Authority:

Subsequent to earlier announcement that a 57-year old female patient was admitted into the hospital on February 6, 2009 due to fever, the spokesperson of the Alice Ho Miu Ling Nethersole Hospital announces the following update today (February 7):

The H5 rapid test of the patient was found negative.
-

View Original Article

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

Hong Kong: Prince of Wales Hospital announces the update (2/7/2009)

The following is issued on behalf of the Hospital Authority:

The spokesperson of Prince of Wales Hospital made the following announcement today (February 7):

A 46-year old female patient who presented with fever symptom was admitted to the hospital through Accident & Emergency Department this morning (February 7).

She is now under observation in the isolation ward and is in stable condition.

H5 rapid test of the patient is found to be negative.
-

View Original Article

 

[Treyfish]

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

AVIAN INFLUENZA (12): CHINA, HUMAN, ANIMAL INFECTIONS


Date: Fri 6 Feb 2009
Source: Reuters [edited]
<http://uk.reuters.com/article/middleeastCrisis/idUKPEK142436>


China defends bird flu vaccination plan despite deaths
------------------------------------------------------
China's Ministry of Agriculture on Friday [6 Feb 2009] defended its
bird flu vaccination programme, stating there had been no outbreaks
since last June [2008] despite a number of human cases, some fatal,
this year. Human cases and the appearance of dead wild birds in Hong
Kong have caused some experts and media reports to question whether
the virus is widespread but undetected in China.

A total of 5 people died of bird flu in China in January [2009], in
regions far removed from each other and in which there were no
reported cases of bird flu in birds. In addition, 3 others have
become ill, of which 2 have recovered, a toddler infected in Hunan
and a young man in Guizhou.

The Ministry of Agriculture said in a report on its Web site that the
strain found in Jiangsu was a variant, requiring the modification of
the vaccine programme in the surrounding provinces of Zhejiang,
Shanghai, Anhui and Shandong.

Meanwhile, 2 ducks and a goose found in Hong Kong have tested
positive for H5N1, the strain of bird flu that can infect humans.
Hong Kong closed its Mai Po nature preserve as a precaution for 21
days from Friday [6 Feb 2009], after a dead grey heron found there
also tested positive for bird flu.

Hong Kong authorities are still testing 14 other dead birds found
last week on Lantau Island. "We're checking water currents" to see if
the birds were washed ashore from mainland China, a government
spokeswoman said.

China has vaccinated aggressively since bird flu first reappeared
among humans in Asia in 2003. But vaccination does not eliminate the
virus. In 2008, China reported 6 outbreaks of bird flu that killed
9000 birds and led to the culling of 590 000 birds.

[Byline: Lucy Hornby and Tan Ee Lyn]

--
Communicated by:
ProMED-mail Rapporteur Mary Marshall

[Following the information on human cases in China without data on
animal outbreaks, and the suspicion that dead infected birds were
being washed ashore in Hong Kong from mainland China (allegedly
coming from China's Pearl River Delta), ProMED-mail included, in its
posting 20090205.0514 of 5 Feb 2009, the following comment: "The
Chinese authorities may consider publishing details of their recent
active surveillance activities undertaken to investigate the source
of said human infections." The current posting may be seen as China's
initial response. Additional details on the number and locations of
investigations applied and samples tested, will help.

China's last (2) reports to the OIE on H5N1 in animals date back to
19 Dec 2008 (Immediate Notification) and 26 Dec 2008 (Follow-up
Report 1). They addressed 2 outbreaks in Jiangsu; see, including map, at
<http://www.oie.int/wahis/public.php?page=event_summary&reportid=7623>.
- Mod.AS

The presence of human cases in the absence of reported avian
outbreaks may be seen as a discrepancy that needs to be addressed --
unless they are claiming that all the human cases were related to
exposure to healthy appearing poultry that were H5N1 infected and
excreters.... - Mod.MPP]
:tiphat:http://www.promedmail.org/pls/otn/f..._BACK_PAGE,F2400_P1001_PUB_MAIL_ID:1000,76035

 

[Treyfish]

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

<TABLE class=lan18 border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="97%" align=center><TBODY><TR><TD class=hei22 height=25 vAlign=bottom>China's Chief Veterinary: Human infection of bird flu has no necessary link with animal cases
</TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#ffffff height=4></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="50%" align=center><TBODY><TR><TD height=8></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="97%" align=center><TBODY><TR><TD width="48%">www.chinaview.cn

2009-02-08 05:46:13 </TD><TD class=hui12 width="26%" align=middle> </TD><TD class=hui12 width="12%" align=middle>

Print</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="80%"><TBODY><TR><TD height=20></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=lt14 border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="97%" align=center><TBODY><TR><TD class=lt14>



BEIJING, Feb. 7 (Xinhua) -- China's Chief Veterinary said on Saturday that the human cases of bird flu did not necessarily mean there would be an outbreak among poultry, in response to the international expert's doubt.
The human cases and the animal cases were not directly interlinked, which was quite common in the world. So far, 405 human cases from 15 countries have been reported, among which many occurred without the outbreak among animals. The infection sources is not clear yet, Yu Kangzhen, Chief Veterinary of the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) told Xinhua in an interview.
The infection rate among high-risk group including those who feed, kill and sell the poultry was not very high as a matter of fact, and no such cases were reported in China, Yu said.
There is still much unchartered water in the bird flu study, which needs more scientific exploration by international researchers, he said.
Eight human cases have been reported in seven provinces in China since January. But no epidemic outbreak of the H5N1 strain of avian influenza have been found in the seven provinces, based on the researches of the overall epidemiological situation and investigations still continuing, he told Xinhua.
"The human cases show the virus must be circulating among birds," Vincent Martin, a senior technical advisor on avian flu for the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said Wednesday, indicating that it was not normal that there had been no confirmation or reports of outbreaks in poultry.
Such doubts intensified as poultry death was reported in Hong Kong, raising fears that the bordering Guangdong Province would be affected.
Yu said the veterinary department in Guangdong had carried out epidemiological inspection and detected no such cases. Poultry in the province were all well-vaccinated as of November 2008, according to the MOA. The Chinese government attaches great importance to the anti-bird flu efforts. Local government are urged to report to the MOA within 24 hours after infection is defected, Yu said. Hundreds of the monitoring centers are established across the nation to keep close watch on the outbreak of the deadly virus.

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
:tiphat:http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-02/08/content_10780512.htm

 

[sharon sanders]

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

"..China's Ministry of Agriculture on Friday [6 Feb 2009] defended its
bird flu vaccination programme, stating there had been no outbreaks
since last June [2008] despite a number of human cases, some fatal,
this year. Human cases and the appearance of dead wild birds in Hong
Kong have caused some experts and media reports to question whether
the virus is widespread but undetected in China..."



However - the 29 year old case -


"..It is reported that Zhou patients with chills, fever treatment, has a history of exposure to poultry..."

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showpost.php?p=206867&postcount=32

 

[Giuseppe]

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

The striking feature of most of Chinese human cases is the lack of previous frankly diseased poultry exposure and contact with infected animals remain only circumstantial.

What is the actual source of infection (environmental contamination, poultry meat, poultry butchering, fecal contamination of water, other animal reservoir, subclinical poultry disease) remains to be established.

For example:

Avian influenza – situation in China – update 51

30 December 2005
The Ministry of Health of China has confirmed an additional case of human infection on the mainland with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. The case is a 41-year-old woman from the south-eastern province of Fujian. She developed symptoms of fever followed by pneumonia on 6 December, and was admitted to hospital two days later. The patient died on 21 December.
On 13 December, initial laboratory tests on samples from the patient tested negative for H5N1. But further tests on 23 December – including PCR tests carried out at the Chinese Center for Disease Control in Beijing – showed positive results. The virus was also isolated from the patient.
Close contacts who have been placed under medical observation have not displayed any symptoms, health authorities report.

Agricultural authorities so far have not been able to confirm the presence of the H5 virus subtype in poultry in the vicinity of the patient’s residence or place of work. Investigators have not been able to confirm any direct contact between the patient and poultry prior to the onset of illness. The investigation, however, is continuing and answers to these and other questions are still being sought.

This is China’s seventh laboratory-confirmed human case. Of these cases, three have been fatal (including this latest case). To date, China has reported human cases in six provinces and regions: Hunan, Anhui, Guangxi, Liaoning, Jiangxi and Fujian.

(http://www.who.int/csr/don/2005_12_30/en/index.html)

Avian influenza – situation in China – update 3

9 February 2006
The Ministry of Health in China has reported the country’s eleventh laboratory confirmed case of human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus.
The case is a 26-year-old female farmer from the south-eastern province of Fujian. She developed symptoms on 10 January and was subsequently hospitalized with pneumonia. She remains under treatment in stable condition.

Like many of the other cases in China, this one occurred in an area where no recent poultry outbreaks have been officially reported.

Of China’s eleven laboratory confirmed cases, seven have been fatal. The cases have occurred in seven provinces and regions: Anhui, Fujian, Guangxi, Jiangxi, Hunan, Liaoning, and Sichuan.
The continuing occurrence of sporadic human cases indicates that the virus is continuing to circulate in birds in at least some parts of the country. Since May 2005, agricultural authorities have reported 32 poultry outbreaks across the country, the majority of which were reported in October and November 2005.
Three poultry outbreaks have been reported so far this year: one in Sichuan Province on 3 January, one in Guizhou Province on 10 January, and one in Shanxi Province on 8 February.
The country’s first two confirmed human cases of H5N1 infection were reported in mid-November of last year.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2006_02_09/en/index.html

 

[HenryN]

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

Re: China - Human H5N1 Cases January 29+

Ministry of Health in February 2009 a regular press conference notice


-------------------------------------------------- ------------------------------


Ministry of Health will be held February 10, 2009 10:00 am in the Ministry of Health (Xizhimen outside the South on the 1st) on the fifth floor of the Office of the Press Release routine press conference held to introduce the health sector of human infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak and spring of communicable diseases prevention and control work, the participants will welcome Chinese and foreign reporters.
Contacts and Contact: Ma dust 010-68792084
Ministry of Health Press Office
February 9, 2009
http://www.moh.gov.cn/publicfiles/business/htmlfiles/mohbgt/s3582/200902/39054.htm