Pandemic threat-level market indicators

[gsgs]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

                               12033  15047  02067
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PDH.F Acambis                   3.00   2.00   1.90
AEMD.OB Aethlon Medical         0.50   0.60   0.65
ALNY  Alnylam Pharmaceutical    5.00  19.45  15.91
AMAR.OB Amarillo Biosciences    0.20   0.80   0.65
AVAN Avant Immunotherapy        1.00   1.42   0.95
AVII AVI Biopharma Inc.         3.00   3.10   3.07
BTA.AX  Biota                   0.50   1.58   1.72
BCRX Biocryst Pharm. Inc.       1.50   9.91   8.27
BDSI Bio Delivery               2.00   6.00   5.13
BPA  BioSante Pharmaceuticals   2.20   6.50   6.80
CARN Carrington Labs In         1.30   1.95   1.64
CBMX Acacia Res-Combimt         2.50   0.52   0.68
CPHD Cepheid Inc                3.50  12.19  11.92
CRXL Crucell NV ADS             2.50  25.89  22.90
CSL.AX  CSL                    13.00  85.00  88.80
EFSF.OB efoodsafety             0.40   0.38   0.37 
ENCO CVGR Covalent Group        2.30   3.80   3.10
GILD Gilead Sciences           18.00  78.42  83.00
GNBT Generex Biotech            1.00   1.66   1.40
GNVC GenVec                     1.50   4.10   3.21 
HEB  Hemispherx Biopharm        1.50   1.74   1.52
IVGN Invitrogen                30.00  67.00  73.50
MEDI Medimmune Inc             30.00  44.19  57.96
NSTK Nastech Pharm              7.00  12.26  12.17
NVAX Novavax Inc                3.00   3.02   3.14
OMRI Omrix Biopharmaceuticals  10.00  37.50  34.50
QDEL Quidel CP                  2.50  12.61  14.57
PDGI SFCC SFBC                  7.00  28.00  32.50
SVA  Sinovac Biotech            1.00   3.39   2.80
TYA.F Toyama chemical           5.30   4.80   4.60
VICL Vical Inc.                 2.30   5.25   5.07
VXGN.PK Vaxgen Inc              2.50   2.00   1.65
----------------------------------------------------

CHIR
PSC Protein sciences

[hawkeye]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

China's pork prices soar 74.6%

BEIJING, July 16 (Xinhua) -- The wholesale price of pork in China surged 74.6 percent in June compared with the same month last year, the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) announced on Monday.

The ministry, however, did not provide the average wholesale price last month.

The wholesale prices polled by the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) in 36 large and medium-sized cities averaged 18.57 yuan per kilogram on July 11, up nearly 30 percent from the 14.25 yuan on May 11. The average retail price for lean pork has exceeded 22 yuan per kilogram.

The price hikes in feedstuff and the outbreaks of the blue ear disease are mainly blamed for the pork price surge.

According to the MOA, the prices of rice, wheat and corn rose 7.9 percent year-on-year in the first half of the year. Meanwhile,39,455 pigs or 27.5 percent of the pigs that contracted blue ear disease in 586 epidemic areas, had died by July 10.

Blue-ear pig disease remains a severe challenge to China's Yangtze River valley despite the fact that the outbreak has been basically brought under control on the whole, the MOA said on Saturday.

The MOA, the MOC and the National Development and Reform Commission urged local authorities on Monday to ban new corn processing facilities that helped push up the prices of corn.

The three agencies also ordered local officials to ban pork that was injected with water and failed safety tests to enter the market and to eliminate the blue ear disease to ensure pork supply.

The price of pork plummeted in the first half of 2006, prompting pig raisers to slaughter their sows and piglets to avoid further losses.

The nation's pig population stood at 476 million at the end of June, down 0.15 percent from the same period last year.

The pork price will continue to rise in the second half of the year as the supply shortfall can hardly be eased in a short period of time, said Huang Hai, Assistant Minister of Commerce.

"Normally, it will take half a year to complete a pig breeding cycle and make more pork available on markets. That is why it's so difficult to make a turnaround in supply-demand relations," Huang said.

The hikes in pork price, along with other food price rises, have pushed the consumer inflation in May to 3.4 percent, much higher than the target of three percent set by the Chinese government for the whole of 2007.

[hawkeye]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Food Prices are going up


image source

[doe22]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

I think the annual mark up of selected bioflu plays is in progress. May be selective but the relative strength of bcrx versus the nasdaq in the last week is quite marked.

[doe22]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

BCRX and SVA continue to substaintially outperform the market....

[gsgs]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

is it maybe because of the reports about reduced sensitivity to Tamiflu of the Indonesian Virus
that Biocryst shares are up ?

Sinovac because of the Chinese vaccination plans ?

n=33                          030312 070415 070602  070905
------------------------------------------------------------------
AEMD.OB Aethlon Medical         0.50   0.60   0.65    0.68
ALNY  Alnylam Pharmaceutical    5.00  19.45  15.91   25.93
AMAR.OB Amarillo Biosciences    0.20   0.80   0.65    0.41
AVAN Avant Immunotherapy        1.00   1.42   0.95    0.63
AVII AVI Biopharma Inc.         3.00   3.10   3.07    2.60
BCRX Biocryst Pharm. Inc.       1.50   9.91   8.27   12.54
BDSI Bio Delivery               2.00   6.00   5.13    3.94
BPA  BioSante Pharmaceuticals   2.20   6.50   6.80    6.05
BTA.AX  Biota                   0.50   1.58   1.72    1.71
CARN.PK Carrington Labs In      1.30   1.95   1.64    0.63
CBIA.PK Canopus Biopharma Inc.                        4.25*
CBMXD Acacia Res-Combimt        2.50   0.52   0.68    5.22*
CPHD Cepheid Inc                3.50  12.19  11.92   19.33
CRXL Crucell NV ADS             2.50  25.89  22.90   20.25
CSL.AX  CSL                    13.00  85.00  88.80  100.35
EFSF.OB efoodsafety             0.40   0.38   0.37    0.30
ENCO CVGR Covalent Group        2.30   3.80   3.10    2.81
GILD Gilead Sciences           18.00  78.42  83.00   36.47*2
GNBT Generex Biotech            1.00   1.66   1.40    1.53
GNVC GenVec                     1.50   4.10   3.21    2.29
HEB  Hemispherx Biopharm        1.50   1.74   1.52    1.20
IVGN Invitrogen                30.00  67.00  73.50   79.66
MEDI Medimmune Inc             30.00  44.19  57.96   58.00*
NSTK Nastech Pharm              7.00  12.26  12.17   14.15
NVAX Novavax Inc                3.00   3.02   3.14    3.41
OMRI Omrix Biopharmaceuticals  10.00  37.50  34.50   33.91
PDGI SFCC SFBC                  7.00  28.00  32.50   28.16
PDH.F Acambis                   3.00   2.00   1.90    1.78
QDEL Quidel CP                  2.50  12.61  14.57   16.81
SVA  Sinovac Biotech            1.00   3.39   2.80    3.60
TYA.F Toyama chemical           5.30   4.80   4.60    4.18
VICL Vical Inc.                 2.30   5.25   5.07    5.10
VXGN.PK Vaxgen Inc              2.50   2.00   1.65    1.43
-------------------------------------------------------------
                                                       .988

CHIR
PSC Protein sciences
Medimmune --> AstraZeneca for $15.6B = $58 per share


bfi2.bas

http://finance.yahoo.com/p?k=pf_2

best:
ALNY  Alnylam Pharmaceutical    5.00  19.45  15.91   25.93                      
CPHD Cepheid Inc                3.50  12.19  11.92   19.33                      
BCRX Biocryst Pharm. Inc.       1.50   9.91   8.27   12.54                      
SVA  Sinovac Biotech            1.00   3.39   2.80    3.60                      
NSTK Nastech Pharm              7.00  12.26  12.17   14.15                      
                                                                                
worst:                                                                                
BDSI Bio Delivery               2.00   6.00   5.13    3.94                      
GNVC GenVec                     1.50   4.10   3.21    2.29                      
AVAN Avant Immunotherapy        1.00   1.42   0.95    0.63                      
AMAR.OB Amarillo Biosciences    0.20   0.80   0.65    0.41                      
CARN.PK Carrington Labs In      1.30   1.95   1.64    0.63

[doe22]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

quite likely as does not seem to be a general overall strength so much in the other plays,

However if focus on a small set and have not set up any systematic number crunching

the google count is now well below 1000

[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Do click on the link at the bottom to find how your state is predicted to fare. A real eye-opener for most people I suspect.

http://www.kiplinger.com/businessresource/summary/archive/2007/Pandemic_Flu_Recession_Trust.html

Pandemic Flu and the Potential for U.S. Economic Recession: A State-by-State Analysis


By The Trust for America's Health



September 2007

The Trust for America's Health
The Trust for America's Health (TFAH) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization that seeks to make the prevention of disease a national priority. TFAH estimates that more than 90 million Americans live with chronic disease, which accounts for seven out of every 10 deaths in this country, and argues that the majority of those deaths are preventable.


A pandemic influenza outbreak is inevitable, according to scientific experts. Flu pandemics occur three to four times each century, when a new influenza virus emerges against which people have little to no immunity. The major questions are when the next pandemic will occur, what strain of the virus will be involved and how severe the outbreak will be.
• Once a pandemic flu strain mutates and becomes transmissible among humans, it is expected to spread easily from person to person and cause a worldwide outbreak in a very short time. Experts predict these outbreaks will likely come in a series of "waves" that will last six to eight weeks each.
• The U.S. experienced three flu pandemics in the 20th century. The influenza pandemic of 1918 killed over 675,000 Americans and tens of millions worldwide. Milder pandemic outbreaks in 1957 and 1968 killed over 34,000 in the U.S. and over 700,000 across the globe.
• H5N1 "bird flu" is being monitored as a major threat for potentially becoming the strain that leads to the next human pandemic. Currently, there is no vaccine widely available to protect humans from H5N1 or similar severe strains of the flu. In the absence of a vaccine, response strategies rest on trying to contain the spread of the disease. While some progress has been made toward improving U.S. preparedness for a possible pandemic, major gaps remain, particularly in the ability of hospitals and health care providers to attend to the huge numbers of people who may become sick.
In addition to the possible tragic consequences for human health, a pandemic poses a real threat to the global economy. An outbreak has the potential to impact communities and countries around the world simultaneously. Businesses, government, schools and other sectors could all face serious disruptions. In today's global economy, almost every aspect of commerce relies directly or indirectly on an interconnected worldwide network of workers, products and services. A major shock to this network could have serious negative consequences on trade and commerce throughout the world.
According to analyses by three major financial and economic research institutions, during a severe pandemic flu outbreak, the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) could drop between 4.25% and 6%. A "severe" outbreak is based on the 1918 pandemic, when 30% of the population became ill and 2.5% of those who became ill died. In modern times, this would translate into approximately 90 million Americans becoming ill and roughly 2.25 million deaths. An outbreak of this severity would almost certainly lead to a major economic recession. (In simplified terms, a recession typically occurs when there are two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. In a typical year, real GDP grows at an average rate of 3.5%.)
If everything else is held constant, a severe pandemic could lead the U.S. economy to contract by 2%. According to the Congressional Budget Office, a contraction of this magnitude would be the second worst recession in America since World War II.
In order to further understand how a severe pandemic outbreak could impact the U.S. economy, Trust for America's Health (TFAH) examined the potential financial loss each state could face. Based on assumptions from the three major national analyses, TFAH developed a model to assess the potential impact of a pandemic flu on each state's workforce and how 20 key industry sectors and trade would be affected.
The U.S. economy could lose an estimated $683 billion, according to this model. Overall, this is roughly a 5.5% decline in annual GDP. Nevada could face the highest percent loss to its economy, taking an 8.08% hit (nearly $9 billion), while Maryland could face the lowest proportional amount lost at 5.09% ($12.5 billion). The average loss states could experience is 5.5%. Washington, D.C., could experience a 4.62% ($3.8 billion) loss. The GDP of California, the state with the largest economy, could lose $86.9 billion (5.36%), and Vermont, the state with the smallest economy, could lose over $1.3 billion (5.65%) (based on 2005 dollars).
Drawn from a study by the Trust for America's Health. To read the entire report, including an assessment of the likely economic impact of a pandemic on each state and on various industry sectors, click here.

[unpathedhaunt]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Eye-opening information and analysis, Shannon. Thanks.

Do click on the link at the bottom to find how your state is predicted to fare. A real eye-opener for most people I suspect.

http://www.kiplinger.com/businessresource/summary/archive/2007/Pandemic_Flu_Recession_Trust.html

Pandemic Flu and the Potential for U.S. Economic Recession: A State-by-State Analysis


By The Trust for America's Health



September 2007

The Trust for America's Health
The Trust for America's Health (TFAH) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization that seeks to make the prevention of disease a national priority. TFAH estimates that more than 90 million Americans live with chronic disease, which accounts for seven out of every 10 deaths in this country, and argues that the majority of those deaths are preventable.


A pandemic influenza outbreak is inevitable, according to scientific experts. Flu pandemics occur three to four times each century, when a new influenza virus emerges against which people have little to no immunity. The major questions are when the next pandemic will occur, what strain of the virus will be involved and how severe the outbreak will be.
? Once a pandemic flu strain mutates and becomes transmissible among humans, it is expected to spread easily from person to person and cause a worldwide outbreak in a very short time. Experts predict these outbreaks will likely come in a series of "waves" that will last six to eight weeks each.
? The U.S. experienced three flu pandemics in the 20th century. The influenza pandemic of 1918 killed over 675,000 Americans and tens of millions worldwide. Milder pandemic outbreaks in 1957 and 1968 killed over 34,000 in the U.S. and over 700,000 across the globe.
? H5N1 "bird flu" is being monitored as a major threat for potentially becoming the strain that leads to the next human pandemic. Currently, there is no vaccine widely available to protect humans from H5N1 or similar severe strains of the flu. In the absence of a vaccine, response strategies rest on trying to contain the spread of the disease. While some progress has been made toward improving U.S. preparedness for a possible pandemic, major gaps remain, particularly in the ability of hospitals and health care providers to attend to the huge numbers of people who may become sick.
In addition to the possible tragic consequences for human health, a pandemic poses a real threat to the global economy. An outbreak has the potential to impact communities and countries around the world simultaneously. Businesses, government, schools and other sectors could all face serious disruptions. In today's global economy, almost every aspect of commerce relies directly or indirectly on an interconnected worldwide network of workers, products and services. A major shock to this network could have serious negative consequences on trade and commerce throughout the world.
According to analyses by three major financial and economic research institutions, during a severe pandemic flu outbreak, the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) could drop between 4.25% and 6%. A "severe" outbreak is based on the 1918 pandemic, when 30% of the population became ill and 2.5% of those who became ill died. In modern times, this would translate into approximately 90 million Americans becoming ill and roughly 2.25 million deaths. An outbreak of this severity would almost certainly lead to a major economic recession. (In simplified terms, a recession typically occurs when there are two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. In a typical year, real GDP grows at an average rate of 3.5%.)
If everything else is held constant, a severe pandemic could lead the U.S. economy to contract by 2%. According to the Congressional Budget Office, a contraction of this magnitude would be the second worst recession in America since World War II.
In order to further understand how a severe pandemic outbreak could impact the U.S. economy, Trust for America's Health (TFAH) examined the potential financial loss each state could face. Based on assumptions from the three major national analyses, TFAH developed a model to assess the potential impact of a pandemic flu on each state's workforce and how 20 key industry sectors and trade would be affected.
The U.S. economy could lose an estimated $683 billion, according to this model. Overall, this is roughly a 5.5% decline in annual GDP. Nevada could face the highest percent loss to its economy, taking an 8.08% hit (nearly $9 billion), while Maryland could face the lowest proportional amount lost at 5.09% ($12.5 billion). The average loss states could experience is 5.5%. Washington, D.C., could experience a 4.62% ($3.8 billion) loss. The GDP of California, the state with the largest economy, could lose $86.9 billion (5.36%), and Vermont, the state with the smallest economy, could lose over $1.3 billion (5.65%) (based on 2005 dollars).
Drawn from a study by the Trust for America's Health. To read the entire report, including an assessment of the likely economic impact of a pandemic on each state and on various industry sectors, click here.

[sharon sanders]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

We had an earlier thread on this report:

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=19547

[Shannon Bennett]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

My import was from the September issue of the Kiplinger Report. My guess is something triggered the periodical to re-introduce the information. Personally, I would like to see it get more exposure because it truly is a shocking set of calculations. But, since it has already been submitted here before I can understand your moving it to the old location.

[Binkerbear]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Scary report out of Mexico - may be alarmist. No flu-biotechs are moving. Of course, gold keeps going up for other reasons.

[Sally Furniss]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

It is an old rumour

[Binkerbear]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Anne: This report is from worldnetdaily.com with today's date on it (9/28). Did the earlier reports mention avian flu ? There are also rumours of suspicious activity at the Mexican / US border.

By the way, aren't you up early ? Isn't it about four in the morning over there.

[Binkerbear]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Today, there's the report out of Panama (pneumonia/flu-like symptoms) and deaths. The flu-biotechs are generally up, some more than others.