Pandemic threat-level market indicators

[doe22]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Though not a market indicator ( more a media indicator delete if too far off topic) my google news h5n1
count just exceeded 3k for the first time in a long while. Last spring it was at ~36k so the media comment is still way down on its peaks. However it has been inching up for a while.

The bioflu stocks is mainly a see of red today. stocks like bcrx got hit hard. thus shows once again need to look at several things to make the call on whether they indicate anything - if they were to go up and the market down then a specific fear may be responsible.

[Laidback Al]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

doe22, you seem to have been watching the Google H5N1 counters and bioflu stocks for a while. Is there or was there any correlation (negative or positive) between bioflu stock prices and increases in the counters for H5N1 on Google?

[doe22]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

I am not IT/industrious enough to keep a time series record of h5n1 google hits.
Without a time series subjective bias is a issue in "remembering" moves. However I would guess there is a poor correlation.

I think there may be a aug-sept ramp up in the bioflu as some speculators punt on the next northern hemisphere flu season. However this year the google h5n1 hits count was generally falling for most of that time. The media outlets suffer from fatigue - without some new aspect to BF they switch off after a time. Clusters may be more correlated with the rises in Bioflu stocks but I have not done the analysis on whether a leading or following .... and cluster fatigue is a growing influence in this aspect too...

At present the usefulness of the bioflu is almost zero since the high "beta" of the stocks re the Nasdaq means they swing around violently. The pharma beating from the democrats winning also scrambles the signal.

[Binkerbear]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

BCRX up 2.75 % and NVAX up 3 % today. Several others were also up.

[gsgs]

new bird flu bets

In order to assess the potential impact of bird flu on financial markets, a market has been created to allow participants to predict the impact on the Dow Jones Industrial Average based on a number of scenarios in relation to the spread of the bird flu virus. This will be assessed against the contract which predicts the number of countries to report a human case of avian flu in 2007.

http://www.thomson.com/content/pr/tf/tf_inv_mgrs/2006_11_27_TF_Risk_Indicators




Traders can also make financial-related bets relative to global events. The consensus believes, for example, the the Dow Jones Industrial index will have sunk to 10,100 by the end of next year in the event that Avian flu has been confirmed in more than 75 countries.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2006/11/27/1033/markets-davos-and-the-pursuit-of-collective-wisdom/



created a new forecasting challenge with its own leader board. For a change, you are not asked to trade contracts, instead, you are simply asked to enter high-low forecasts for the Dow Jones on Dec 31, 2007. You can modify those forecasts whenever you change your mind, and you will be scored, in the end, on their accuracy and precision

http://weforum.newsfutures.com/trnmt/cf/onePage.html?symbol=DJFLU07

[Binkerbear]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>BioCryst Pharma wins $102.6 mln contract from HHS department
</TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR><TD></TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>12:28:41 PM ET 1/4/2007
</TD></TR><TR><TD vAlign=top>SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX) said Thursday it has been awarded a four-year, $102.6 million contract from the Department of Health and Human Services. The contract is for the development of the influenza neuraminidase inhibitor, peramivir, for the treatment of seasonal and life-threatening flu, including avian flu, the Birmingham, Ala.-based company said. Peramivir is an antiviral agent that inhibits the enzyme neuraminidase, potentially preventing the spread of the flu virus.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

[Laidback Al]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

BioCryst Pharma wins $102.6 mln contract from HHS department


12:28:41 PM ET 1/4/2007


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Inc. (BCRX) said Thursday it has been awarded a four-year, $102.6 million contract from the Department of Health and Human Services. The contract is for the development of the influenza neuraminidase inhibitor, peramivir, for the treatment of seasonal and life-threatening flu, including avian flu, the Birmingham, Ala.-based company said. Peramivir is an antiviral agent that inhibits the enzyme neuraminidase, potentially preventing the spread of the flu virus.

102 million dollars is only a drop in the bucket necessary to study treatments for influenza, but it is a shot in the arm for a small company. ().

This contract might give some publicity to the company, but the price has not moved at all. It is hovering around $12 a share, down from a high of $23 a share in March of this year. This micro microcap company (cap of 350 million dollars; and running in the red) is a speculative investment if you want to trade pandemic-related biopharmaceuticals.
</IMG></IMG></IMG>

[Binkerbear]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

LA. Total agreement. I posted that only for this reason: When I first turn on CNBC in the morning, if I see BCRX or NVAX or others trading active and up in the pre-market, then my next move is to logon here to determine whether to next go out and do my JIT prepping. It's a great curiosity to me whether the markets or the internet will announce the pandemic first. BCRX is now just about a pure-play on flu as anything, not as an investment neccessarily, but as a warning flag.

[doe22]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

I like BTA.AX which trades in Aussie as my leading indicator.
BCRX is a follow through indicator.
However as always company specific news distorts

[gsgs]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

use the index instead

http://www.trendmacro.com/default2.asp

[Laidback Al]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

From the link that gsgs posted:

[Binkerbear]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

I like BTA.AX which trades in Aussie as my leading indicator.
BCRX is a follow through indicator.
However as always company specific news distorts - doe22
<!-- / message -->
Looks good. Biota invented Relenza (licensed to GSK) and that's their only drug ? That does sound pureplay.

[gsgs]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

yes, but there are other factors involved for economical success, not
only bird flu fear. Dr.Dank had posted about Biota and Relenza
on other boards before.
They had sued Glaxo for not promoting Relenza, AFAIR

[doe22]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Biota,

Biota is a leading antiviral drug development company, based in Melbourne, Australia.

Biota's initial success was the discovery of zanamivir, the first-in-class neuraminidase inhibitor for the treatment and prevention of influenza....
Biota also has key partnerships with:

http://www.biota.com.au/?page=1021000&subpage=1021145

Unfortunately not savvy enough to know how much of their value is their license payments on relenza and the possibility that someday their long running beef with GSK might yield some extra money (like gilead and roche).

gsgs is very correct to say many other factors. However as in Asian time zone by looking at Biota, then Europe time look at crucell/roche/sanofi and finally in the US timezone bioflu plays one has a (distorted) view of medium term PI fears.

What the shares sometimes have is liquidity and leverage the to the PI fears which sometimes shines out from general market noise. Given I watch several markets anyway I believe I can sometimes spot the days when they are deviating from the market big.
Last Aug/Sept the bioflu index went up with the prospect of the northern hemisphere flu season ( and the recent falls are may be the view that the season has not played out like the last one ).

Question how does one see the premarket prices of the bioflu stocks on the US markets?

[gsgs]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

best indicator IMO are mortality bonds. But no one can get actual
prices...