Pandemic threat-level market indicators

[doe22]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

BCRX up ~ 10% today on high volume?
Crucell +10.42%

These two could be company specific news coming out soon? We will see in a few days.

AVII +1.46%
VRA -2.78%
PPHM -2.22%
NVAX +3.03%
SVA +1.15%
VICL +6.94%

Market was up a bit and these are mixed but generally up?

My personal theory is these sort of stocks will rise as BF enters the market consciousness as a future threat requiring a direction of money into a new technologies as a magic bullet.
However several of them do not have approved products or mass production capacity yet, as a pandemic becomes more certain it is possible that some will soar as some will bomb as the weaker prospects for the magic bullet are discarded.

My personal watch is airline stocks like BAY.L. When the bioflu rise becomes rocky (some up some down) the airlines drop like a stone and "safe havens" (even gold perhaps?) start to climb then we may have the market signal for the first wave?

(of course the signal could be wrecked by a stampede of hedge funds exiting commodities and driving down gold by accident )

[Binkerbear]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Thanks for keeping on top of this doe. This certainly bears watching.

[sharon sanders]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

FluTrackers.com Inc., and its directors, officers, moderators, and members do not endorse any of the opinions expressed here.

This is for entertainment uses only. Trade at your own risk.

[Binkerbear]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

As for me, I'm not trading any of these stocks. I'm watching for up moves in this sector (flu biotech) as a warning to do last minute prepping before the news goes mainsteam.

[Laidback Al]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Binkerbear, I think we have had this discussion before. I think doe22 is right that as we enter the flu season bird flu consciousness will rise and speculators will drive up prices.

I don't believe that the stock market has or will have insider knowledge about the start of pandemic, though. You are more likely to hear it here first. In fact, global traders may be tracking the cluster threads here at FluTrackers very closely to help them make their own buy/sell decisions. It is hard to believe but maybe this is the first time us common people (investors) have an inside track.
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[Binkerbear]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

BCRX up ~ 10% today on high volume? - doe22

Somebody obviously knew about this yesterday:

7:32AM BioCryst Pharm announces it will present positive data from preclinical testing of its potent neuraminidase inhibitor, peramivir (BCRX) 11.35 : Co announced that it will present positive data from preclinical testing of its potent neuraminidase inhibitor, peramivir, at the 46th Annual Interscience Conference on Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy in San Francisco, California on Saturday, September 30, 2006 at 10:00 a.m. Pacific Time. The data will be presented in a late-breaker poster session. The research to be presented was performed at the University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston and was funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, a part of the U.S. National Institutes of Health. Titled, "Injectable Peramivir Promotes Survival in Mice and Ferrets Infected with Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A/Vietnam/1203/04 (H5N1)," the poster describes the studies in the mouse and ferret models of influenza caused by a strain of avian influenza virus (H5N1) that caused fatal human illness. These are the first data to be presented describing the activity of peramivir in an established animal model using this highly pathogenic strain of H5N1.

[Binkerbear]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Binkerbear, I think we have had this discussion before. I think doe22 is right that as we enter the flu season bird flu consciousness will rise and speculators will drive up prices.

I don't believe that the stock market has or will have insider knowledge about the start of pandemic, though. You are more likely to hear it here first. In fact, global traders may be tracking the cluster threads here at FluTrackers very closely to help them make their own buy/sell decisions. It is hard to believe but maybe this is the first time us common people (investors) have an inside track.
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Good point, Al and I hope that you're right. Still, in a contest for timely info, I can't believe the big-money guys (Soros, Goldman-Sachs, etc.) won't beat us little guys to the punch.

[Laidback Al]

Re: Market movement on BF fears

Posted by Hawkeye at

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=10959

Sydney BF Scare Fallout

<HR style="COLOR: #cccccc" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Dollar falls in light trade
THE dollar was lower at noon after trading in a tight range in the morning session, with much of the market focussed on a fall in the New Zealand dollar.
At 1200 AEST the local currency was trading at $US0.7515/20, slightly down from yesterday's close of $US0.7543/48. During the morning session it reached a low of $US0.7505 and a high of $US0.7527.

St George head of foreign exchange Glen Whittingslow said dealing were very subdued with most of the focus on the New Zealand dollar.

The New Zealand dollar fell against the US dollar after comments by NZ finance minister Michael Cullen were interpreted as suggesting interest rates in the country would not rise any further.

Mr Whittingslow also said reports today that a passenger travelling from Vietnam to Sydney had a suspected case of bird flu could have given the local unit "a little nick".

However, health experts stated it was unlikely the diagnosis would be avian influenza.

Mr Whittingslow said the overall outlook for the dollar was positive.

"If you look at last night, the euro, sterling and the kiwi ... all came under pressure and the Aussie has performed relatively well," he said.

"We have to continue to play the ranges, which is frustrating people.

"If you look at where volatility levels, if you take the kiwi out of play, most currencies have got 12-month and longer lows, which is a dangerous recipe when the market gets complacent.

[Binkerbear]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

At 11:10 EDT: GNBT up 16.25 %, NVAX up 6%, and BCRX up 5.5 %.

[doe22]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

...do not endorse any of the opinions expressed here.
This is for entertainment uses only. Trade at your own risk.

Apologies my post was too close to an endorsement

Most/All these stocks are trash and will in time be trashed. If you touch them expect to lose all/most of your money.

In terms of market moves predicting pandemic I am still enamoured with these points

1. The bioflu stocks may rise on stories that indicate that the threat is returning to the markets awareness.

2. However the stocks will be mainly driven by stock specific stories. eg bcrx However the companies themselves may be engaging in pumping (IMHO) stories to push their own stock price up. These stories may cause a short term push to that stocks price. History indicates may of these rises will not be maintained.

3. The main drivers for these stocks are (arguably) momentum and (possibly irrational) exuberance.

A better scheme for imminent pandemic signal in the markets may be

1. Many of the bioflu stocks crash as time will have run out for their products to make it.
2. Sensitive stocks (airlines are the cliche) fall
3. Liquidity preference becomes extreme

I suppose this is all too obvious to you folks?

[Laidback Al]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

doe22, I don't think Florida1 was singling out your post. Florida1 just wanted to let recently registered members and guests know about FluTracker's policies regarding posts in the economic threads.

[hawkeye]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Oil spikes, pandemics biggest threat to growth: WEF

By Gilbert Le Gras

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Surging oil prices, a pandemic or extreme weather are more likely to spoil the world's best growth in a generation than snowballing economic imbalances, a World Economic Forum study group said on Wednesday.

Even lightly regulated hedge funds, another big worry often cited by policy makers and regulators, are less of a concern than they have been, a panel of more than 40 academics, business and government leaders found.

"Hedge funds were one of the top five risks and then drifted down and the focal points today are around oil price shocks and energy security being one, pandemics being another, climate change," said John Drzik, one of the organizers of the joint WEF-Marsh & McLennan Companies global risk consultation.

"A credit hedge fund collapse was not (seen as) one of the starting points of risks to the financial system," said Drzik, president of consultancy Mercer Oliver Wyman.

The latest hedge fund to get in trouble is Amaranth Advisors LLC. It once managed $9 billion but lost some $6 billion in the natural gas market earlier this month.

A source familiar with Amaranth's situation said on Wednesday that the hedge fund was increasingly unlikely to survive as an independent company.

Drzik said what could really have roiled markets last month would have been another hurricane at the same time, magnitude and location as 2005's Katrina which could easily put crude prices over $100 per barrel had it taken out refining capacity.

Experts also are concerned about government reactions in the event of a bird flu pandemic. So far 147 people have died worldwide of the H5N1 virus since 2003, according to the World Health Organization.

The risks are if people start hoarding vaccines rather than distributing them, if there's civil unrest and the perception or fear of spread in Western economies so people are afraid to go to work," Drzik said.

Accelerated climate change could be another trigger to a broader disruption to the global economy.

"There would be more political will to develop alternative fuels," Drzik added, while other policy makers may simply opt to ration or limit fossil fuel sales to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

Under caps to fossil fuel sales, however, there is a risk oil producers could rush to dump crude on the market before those controls would be fully put in place, he said.

[doe22]

crucell was company specific

http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/sho...4867#post34867

So there is some comment on crucell. So its rise a few days ago was not too surprising. However PER.C6 its star thing which loads of people have heard of a long time ago.

Overall just appears to be general noise....

[gsgs]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

there do exist "mortality bonds" named "Vita I", "Vita II","Tartan".
These should be the best financial instruments to measure
the pandemic threat since their payment directly depends
on the change in mortality in USA and similar countries.

Can someone get actual quotes ?






see pages 18-21 here:
http://www.usinsurer.com/pdf/US_InsurerFALL06PDF.pdf


there seems to be a secondary market. Someone to mimic
a large institutional investor and call up to Swiss Re...

OK, I found the price of the "Tartan B" from Scottish Re now, it was
LIBOR+3%, for 3 years, total loss, when the cumulative mortality
over 2 years is 15% more than average. In 1918 it was 33%
above average.
So the investor gets 9% from Scottish Re for the risk to lose
100% in case of a 1918-like pandemic over 3 years.
It's a bit worse than that, so let's say :
the market estimates 7% probability that there is a pandemic
like 1918 or worse in the next 3 years.

And that was in April 2006, when panflu fear was at its top.



I calculate that the market estimated:

Vita I in Nov.2003 was 4% in 3 years
Vita II in April 2005 was 8% in 5 years
Tatan in April 2006 was 7% in 3 years

...for the probability of an excess mortality like 1918 or worse in USA
within that period.

(numbers adjusted by me so to be comparable, add some uncertainty)
(someone please check my calculation)






<META content="MSHTML 6.00.2800.1141" name=GENERATOR>http://www2.standardandpoors.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=sp/sp_article/ArticleTemplate&c=sp_article&cid=1069080460421&s=& ig=&b=2&dct=19
Vita I

http://209.85.129.104/search?q=cache:0qOngAuf2j0J:www2.standardandpoors. com/servlet/Satellite%3Fpagename%3Dsp/sp_article/ArticleTemplate%26c%3Dsp_article%26cid%3D111144369 0509%26b%3D10%26r%3D1%26l%3DEN+%22vita+capital+ii+ ltd%22+presale&hl=de&gl=de&ct=clnk&cd=1&ie=UTF-8
Vita II

http://www2.snl.com/irweblinkx/ShowFile.aspx?KeyFile=2289252
Tartan

http://www.usinsurer.com/pdf/US_InsurerFALL06PDF.pdf
mortality bonds

www.standardandpoors.com
http://www.milliman.com/


http://www.pensions-institute.org/conferences/8th_bowles/Lane.pdf
page 28 has a chart of Vita II Apr.2005-Apr 2006


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/05/15/cnaxa15.xml&menuId=242&sSheet=/money/2006/05/15/ixcity.html
Axa 2006



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[doe22]

Re: Pandemic threat-level market indicators

Could not find quotes for these bonds on yahoo or google. They are probably too illiquid, tightly held and be off the run - so no easily accessible public quotes may be available. There may be no public market at all.

Pity much purer than the bioflu punting stocks - many of which appear to be just indicators of risk appetite