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the obligatory October-wave may be starting in Europe, but it's not clear.
Germany,Austria,Italy,France,Luxemburg,Liechtenste in,San Marino ,
but not (yet?) NLD,BEL,DNK,POL,CZE,CHE,ESP,,SWE,HUN
This is NOT medical advice. If you have any medical questions consult your medical practitioner.
Going into this fall I am still doing everything I can to prevent COVID-19. So far I have not contracted it (to my knowledge). Still:
1. I wear a clean 95N mask indoors.
2. No inside restaurants or other inside entertainment venues.
3. No crowds.
4. Directed trips to inside areas like the grocery store. I do not casually shop the store. I have a list and know what I am getting ahead of time.
5. Carry hand sanitizer packets in my purse. Carry liquid hand sanitizer in the cup holders of my car.
6. Wipe down or spray everything coming into the house.
7. My animals are not allowed to be in contact with any other animals.
I do not care what people think. I plan to venture out frequently to outside venues as the weather becomes less humid but I will still avoid crowded situations.
I have not taken the new revised booster shot yet. I might get it. I have not decided. I did get the original two shots and followed with two boosters.
I posted because I want to support people who do not want to get COVID-19 and are still trying to prevent infection. COVID-19 is endemic and it has not magically disappeared.
I have never supported government mandated lockdowns, masks, vaccines, etc. for the general population. However, I do think people in congregate settings, like nursing homes, need to be protected.
Thank you for viewing and take care of yourself.
I am the only person wearing an N95 mask indoors when I go anywhere. It is such an easy thing to do - especially for only an hour. I do not understand.
Even mild cases of COVID-19 are causing problems for people. For example:
Nature Medicine - Long-term neurologic outcomes of COVID-19
snip
"In conclusion, our report provides a comprehensive analysis of neurologic outcomes at 12 months. We show increased risk of an array of neurologic disorders spanning several neurologic disease categories including stroke (both ischemic and hemorrhagic), cognition and memory disorders, peripheral nervous system disorders, episodic disorders, extrapyramidal and movement disorders, mental health disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, sensory disorders, and other disorders including Guillain–Barré syndrome, and encephalitis or encephalopathy.
The risks were evident in all examined subgroups and were evident even in people who were not hospitalized during the acute phase of the disease..."
Open Access
:applause:
My bolding inside paragraphs
----------------------------------------------------------------
Long-term neurologic outcomes of COVID-19
Evan Xu (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02001-z#auth-Evan-Xu),
Yan Xie (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02001-z#auth-Yan-Xie) &
Ziyad
These were VA patients, mostly white men, with an earlier variant: positive COVID-19 test between 1 March 2020 and 15 January 2021. With all the statistical manipulations in that article, I didn't get a sense of what the real risk to that population group was at the time, let alone to someone like me if I didn't have some immunity already.
It is a problem for some people to wear a mask, especially an N95, for an hour. I did an experiment and took my resting pulse with and without a mask, (one of those suffocating, stupid cloth masks I wore early on), and my pulse was 10 pts higher with the mask on. I assume that my heart had to work harder to try to oxygenate my blood.
I did not feel well wearing a mask shopping or at a museum. I only wear a N95 mask now for brief periods when exposed to wood smoke and I don't care what people think about that.
Ok. So, if someone does not want to take any vaccines for COVID-19, or wear any N95 masks, then what? Just pretend covid is nothing and get the infection over and over, and hope for the best? Not me.
Some have protection to some extent from infection. The early Sars2 strains created antibody action against all variants of concern and were long-lasting. I haven't had problems since early 2020. If something severe was circulating intensely, I'd wear a mask again to avoid high viral exposure. Also would stay out of crowded spaces with low ceilings/poor ventilation.
Where I live, there are generational social networks and their behavior lets me know if something is going on. (More mask wearing.) Right now, things are good and the DOH numbers look good, too, for my personal situation. Everyone is different.
State Surgeon General Dr. Joseph A. Ladapo Issues New mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine Guidance
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Today, State Surgeon General Dr. Joseph A. Ladapo has announced new guidance regarding mRNA vaccines. The Florida Department of Health (Department) conducted an analysis through a self-controlled case series, which is a technique originally developed to evaluate vaccine safety.
This analysis found that there is an 84% increase in the relative incidence of cardiac-related death among males 18-39 years old within 28 days following mRNA vaccination. With a high level of global immunity to COVID-19, the benefit of vaccination is likely outweighed by this abnormally high risk of cardiac-related death among men in this age group. Non-mRNA vaccines were not found to have these increased risks.
As such, the State Surgeon General recommends against males aged 18 to 39 from receiving mRNA COVID-19 vaccines. Those with preexisting cardiac conditions, such as myocarditis and pericarditis, should take particular caution when making this decision.
“Studying the safety and efficacy of any medications, including vaccines, is an important component of public health,” said Surgeon General Dr. Joseph Ladapo. “Far less attention has been paid to safety and the concerns of many individuals have been dismissed – these are important findings that should be communicated to Floridians.”
The analysis can be found here. The guidance can be found here.
@FLSurgeonGen
· 3h
Today, we released an analysis on COVID-19 mRNA vaccines the public needs to be aware of. This analysis showed an increased risk of cardiac-related death among men 18-39. FL will not be silent on the truth. Guidance: https://bit.ly/3ClKF5f Press Release:
@FLSurgeonGen
· 45m
Replying to @FLSurgeonGen
#1. "Diagnosis codes for cardiac-related deaths are imperfect." Yes! But that is true for every subgroup we examined. Only in young men was the risk extremely high, and it was also increased in older men.
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@FLSurgeonGen
· 44m
#2. "COVID test information was only available on death certificates." No! We used all of our data resources-test results, vaccine records, death records-to exclude individuals who had documented COVID-19 infection, as we write in the Methods section.
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@FLSurgeonGen
· 44m
#3. "The sample size is too small." 3a. Elevated cardiac risk was also found in older men, and there were thousands of deaths in this group. 3b. The total cardiac deaths meeting inclusion criteria among young men was 77, not 20, as has been going around the web.
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@FLSurgeonGen
· 43m
3c. Read the references about the method! Self-controlled case series tell us whether events (death) are occurring unusually close to an exposure (mRNA Covid vaccine), or whether their timing is due to chance.
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@FLSurgeonGen
· 43m
3c cont. Even if the sample size was half of what it is, if events cluster after an exposure, that is valuable information about causation.
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@FLSurgeonGen
· 43m
Finally, is it really that hard to imagine that mRNA COVID-19 vaccines that increase myocarditis in young men by 10x, 20x, or 30x (see Karlstad et al, JAMA Cardiology, 2022) also increase the risk of cardiac death in that age group? Of course it's not, and we all know that.
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2,
Will the 8th wave of Covid remain moderate despite the rise in cases?
The 8th wave of Covid-19 continues and contaminations such as hospitalizations are on the rise, according to Public Health France. But if no new variant appears, its health impact could be moderate.
Mathieu Pourvendier with AFP
Written on10/10/2022
Contaminations, hospitalizations… everything is increasing. The new wave of Covid-19 continues to rise, according to the weekly report from health authorities. The week of September 26 thus saw the circulation of the virus progress " strongly throughout the metropolitan territory, in particular among the oldest ", summarized the public health agency France in a report given Thursday evening October 6.
... 8th wave: a moderate impact?
But what to expect in terms of intensity for this news of Covid which has affected France since the start of the school year? It could have " a moderate health impact ", if however no new strain appears in the coming months, anticipates Anne-Claude Crémieux, infectious disease specialist at Saint-Louis hospital in Paris, in an interview with the Journal du Dimanche .
Indeed, the first seven waves “ were linked to the emergence of variants or sub-variants, hence the very numerous reinfections ”, recalls the specialist. “ The current wave, on the other hand, is – to date at least – not linked to the appearance of a new strain ”. This is why, according to her, " if no new variant arrives, we can hope for a moderate health impact, on condition, however, of persuading the over 60s to get regular boosters " because " protection against severe forms fades after six months ".
...
La 8e vague de Covid-19 se poursuit et les contaminations comme les hospitalisations sont en hausse, selon Santé publique France . Mais si aucun nouveau variant n'apparaît, son impact sanitaire pourrait être modéré.
well, we have this (non-understood) phenomenon of October-waves in Europe..
Oct 2020 and Oct 2021 saw no new variant either.
However, this year it increases slower , non-exponential and it is not seen
yet in some countries, like Spain,Ireland,
And you see it better at hospitalisations than cases,
which could mean it is more virulent or testing is low ?!?
think, the wave comes from Estonia,Poland,Czechia.
You don't see it in the case-numbers, maybe because of the testing strategy and because it's mainly
asymptomatic now.
But some people still get complications and hospitalisations are up. First in Estonia.
With a virus still evolving, COVID-19 has not said its last word
In Europe, a new wave of COVID-19 is beginning and the same trend is emerging in Canada. While it is difficult to say precisely what awaits us over the next few months, one thing is certain: the pandemic is not over and the presence of multiple variants of Omicron could have some surprises in store for us.
Melanie Meloche-Holubowski
Posted on October 9, 2022
For the past three weeks in the UK, the number of cases and hospitalizations has been rising rapidly. Over the past week, these have increased by 33%. More than 3,100 hospitalizations last week: this is the second week with the most in 2022.
In France, hospitalizations have increased by more than 40% for a week and the positivity rate is close to 25%, which indicates a very high community transmission.
In Canada, sewage analyzes in several cities show an increase in the concentration of SARS-CoV-2.
In Quebec, hospitalizations and the number of health care workers absent due to COVID-19 are increasing. In Ontario, the number of hospitalizations is climbing and has already almost reached its peak this year.
UK study co-founder Zoe COVID(New window), Tim Spector, told The Guardian(New window)that the fall is likely to be very difficult. We risk having a difficult month of October, which will probably be worse than the last wave.
Dr. Catherine Hankins, professor of public and population health at McGill University and co-chair of the COVID-19 Immunity Task Force, agrees. In addition to the lifting of the majority of health measures, several elements are present to cause a new wave.
Multiple variants blur the cards
According to Ryan Gregory, professor of evolutionary biology in the Department of Integrative Biology at the University of Guelph, the situation is different this fall because of the proliferation of variants in circulation. We have never faced so many variants at the same time.
During the first waves, only one variant dominated. The first variants – like Alpha and Delta – hardly circulate anymore, since new, more competitive variants have taken their place.
Then, Omicron appeared. Omicron's original line, BA.1, first struck in January 2022. This strain now accounts for less than 1% of cases in Canada.
Since then, Omicron has been mutating at a rapid rate, producing an array of sub-variants. For example, BA.2 hit in the spring, followed by BA.4 and BA.5 this summer. Currently, approximately 2% of cases in the country are caused by BA.2, 10% by BA.4 and almost 90% by BA.5.
“ We observe that certain lines of Omicron mutate very quickly. Yes, the flu virus also mutates every year, but not at the rate of SARS-CoV-2. »
— A quote from Ryan Gregory, University of Guelph
In fact, according to Trevor Bedford, a virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, the rate of evolution of SARS-CoV-2(New window)one year is equivalent to five years of evolution of H3N2, one of the most frequently mutating flu viruses.
Currently, there are nearly a dozen variants competing to replace the BA.4 and BA.5, including BA.2.75, BA.2.75.2, BA.2.3.20, BA.4.6, BQ.1, BQ.1.1 and XBB. These are all Omicron variants , says Gregory.
Currently, the BA.4.6, BA.2.75 and BQ.1 subvariants are present in Canada.
A soup of variants capable of escaping immunity
What concerns Gregory is not only the amount of highly transmissible subvariants, but also the fact that they are becoming increasingly adept at escaping immunity acquired through infection or vaccine.
“ The virus is less and less interested in becoming more transmissible. It mutates to further evade our immunity and to infect again and again. We don't know exactly how this will all end, but we do know that several of these variants will evade immunity. »
— A quote from Ryan Gregory, University of Guelph
Additionally, some of these variants appear to counteract the effects of the handful of drugs that are available to treat and protect those at risk of serious complications from COVID-19. This is notably the case for sub-variants BQ.1.1 and BA.2.75.2.
Will these subvariants cause more serious complications? It's hard to say at this point, says Gregory. Health Canada advises that although Omicron has been widely associated with less severe disease compared to previous variants, the virulence of the BA.4 and BA.5 sublines is currently unclear .
Can we rely on hybrid immunity?
Since two-thirds of Canadians would have been infected(New window)since last December, authorities have increasingly mentioned hybrid immunity – that is, immunity acquired by infection in a vaccinated person.
Could this hybrid immunity help reduce the repercussions of a new wave? Impossible to know for sure.
Health Canada warns that the duration of hybrid immunity has not yet been fully characterized .(New window).
But in a study published this week, but not peer-reviewed(New window), it was sought to understand whether an infected person should also be vaccinated. The researchers compared protection against infection and against severe disease between infected and unvaccinated people, vaccinated and uninfected people, and people with hybrid immunity (infected and vaccinated).
"Our results clearly indicate the need for vaccination, even among people who have already been infected ," said one of the study's authors, Dr. Niklas Bobrovitz.
In all three groups, protection against hospitalization and serious complications remains high after six months: 95% protection with hybrid immunity; 80% with infection without vaccination; and 65% with the first doses of the vaccine without infection. In people with hybrid immunity, protection against complications lasts at least 12 months.
As for the protection against reinfections, it decreases rapidly from six months for the three groups. Finally, infection with one of the Omicron subvariants reduces the risk of reinfection with another Omicron subvariant. However, Dr. Bobrovitz clarified that it is too early to know if this applies to all new subvariants.
The researchers are clear: Knowingly acquiring an infection in the hope of having hybrid immunity is not recommended.
“ The risks [associated with COVID-19 infection] are significant and it would be unwise to ignore them. »
— A quote from Dr Maria Van Kerkhove, technical lead for the management of the COVID-19 epidemic at the WHO and author of the study
These include the risks of hospitalization, admission to intensive care, need for mechanical ventilation and death. There is also the risk of developing post-COVID-19 syndrome . Additionally, those who survive severe COVID-19 have an increased risk of cardiovascular complications, dementia, diabetes and chronic respiratory disease , the study authors write, adding that vaccination remains a safe way to avoid the serious consequences of the disease.
Like the study authors, Gregory asks people to take all necessary precautions to avoid many infections.
“ We don't know what happens if you get infected 3, 4, 5, or 6 times. We don't fully understand the long-term impacts of reinfections. But we know that each reinfection increases the risk of complications. »
— A quote from Ryan Gregory, University of Guelph
Mr. Gregory does not believe that governments should rely exclusively on hybrid immunity , since the virus evolves too quickly. He points out that authorities relied on the fact that millions of Canadians were infected last winter to have a calmer summer. Quite the opposite happened.
Dr. Kerkhove clarified that hybrid immunity alone will not end the pandemic.
“ Waves of infection will continue to occur even when hybrid immunity levels are high, because current vaccines do not completely prevent infection – that is not the primary goal of vaccines. »
— A quote from Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, technical lead for the management of the COVID-19 epidemic
How Many Times Will You Get COVID?
...
By Dhruv Khullar
October 8, 2022
...
How often is the coronavirus reinfecting us now? “We’re probably all getting reinfected all the time,” Marcel Curlin, an infectious-disease physician at Oregon Health & Science University, told me. “If you put me in a room with someone with covid, and a little virus lands in my nose and infects one cell and makes new viruses, but then my immune system immediately wipes it out—well, I’ve been infected. It’s just that it’s not clinically recognized as an infection.” Seen in this way, infections could be considered less of a binary than a spectrum: the virus can replicate inside our bodies even if it doesn’t cause symptoms or show up on less-sensitive tests. “I bet if we did a PCR test on every person every four days, we’d see a sky-high rate of reinfection,” Curlin said.
...
Fundamentally, our risk of reinfections depends on three main factors: how much our immunity has waned, how much the virus has changed, and how much of it we encounter.
...
These three factors exist in a kind of equilibrium, but the balance can change, sometimes dramatically. Because Omicron is a more skilled infector of humans than prior variants, we need vastly higher levels of circulating antibodies to block it from infecting us. “The intrinsic transmissibility of Omicron has changed the rules of the game,” Dan Barouch, an immunologist at Harvard, told me—probably in a way that makes it impossible for us to win, if by winning we mean avoiding reinfection altogether. “Are we chasing our tails trying to continuously raise antibody titers against sars-CoV-2 to levels that would fully block infection?” Barouch asked. “At this point, is preventing infection even a realistic goal?”
Aubree Gordon, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan, has been following hundreds of households in Nicaragua to understand covid risks over time.... “I’d hoped that one or two reinfections would get us to a place where covid was something like other coronaviruses,” Gordon told me. “It looks like it will take longer. But I expect we’ll still get there.”
Gordon believes that one day, sars-CoV-2 will infect us far less frequently than it does now. .. “My best guess would be—and this is just a guess—that symptomatic covid infections will eventually occur every five years or so.” We could achieve this equilibrium within five years, and possibly sooner, she said. But that would still mean that many of us could get covid ten times or more in our lifetimes.
...
People who are reinfected by the virus are much more likely to suffer a range of medical problems in subsequent months, including heart attacks, strokes, breathing problems, mental-health problems, and kidney disorders, according to a major new analysis of U.S. veterans. Compared with those who weren’t reinfected, they are twice as likely to die. “We did this paper because, for most people in the U.S., a first infection is now in the past,” Ziyad Al-Aly, the study’s lead author and chief of research and development at the V.A. St. Louis Health Care System, told me. “They’re thinking, I’ve had it once, I’m vaccinated, I’m boosted. Should I still go the extra mile to protect myself? Does reinfection really matter? The short answer is: yes, it absolutely does.”
...
People should still do their best to avoid contracting and transmitting the virus, Al-Aly said: mask on public transportation, stay home when sick, choose outdoor activities over indoor ones. Meanwhile, there’s more that policymakers must do: maintain testing and treatment programs, fund next-generation vaccines, invest in public-health departments, improve ventilation systems, support paid medical leave. “Without mitigation measures, it’s inevitable that most people will get reinfected,” Al-Aly said. “That’s the price we pay for moving toward normal. It’s an exorbitant price.”
... https://www.newyorker.com/science/an...-you-get-covid
"...there’s an obvious contest that’s happening between different sectors of the colonial ruling class in this country. And they would, if they could, lump us into their beef, their struggle." ---- Omali Yeshitela, African People’s Socialist Party
(My posts are not intended as advice or professional assessments of any kind.) Never forget Excalibur.
@FLSurgeonGen
· 3h
Regardless of what @CDCgov
votes tomorrow on whether COVID-19 vax are added to routine child immunizations - nothing changes in FL. Thanks to @GovRonDeSantis
, COVID mandates are NOT allowed in FL, NOT pushed into schools, & I continue to recommend against them for healthy kids.
597
10h
I can no longer track the number of highly concerning #COVID#variants SARS-CoV-2 is completely out of control. The virus is accelerating evolution towards combinations (a multitude) of the most dangerous, AND highly virulent. All past pharmaceutical tools border on obsolete.
WHO Director-General's opening remarks at media briefing – 19 October 2022
19 October 2022
...
Now to COVID-19.
Last week, the Emergency Committee on COVID-19 met to discuss the global situation and the way forward.
The committee’s view is that COVID-19 remains a public health emergency of international concern, and I agree.
The committee emphasised the need to strengthen surveillance and expand access to tests, treatments and vaccines for those most at-risk, and for all countries to update their national preparedness and response plans.
While the global situation has obviously improved since the pandemic began, the virus continues to change, and there remain many risks and uncertainties.
This pandemic has surprised us before and very well could again.
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