Discussion thread V - COVID-19 (new coronavirus)

[sharon sanders]

Zhong Nanshan: The new crown vaccine is available at the earliest autumn or end of the year

2020-06-08 09:29 Tianjin Radio Review ( 1 participant)

A ⁺

　　On June 6, Academician Zhong Nanshan and Academician Li Lanjuan visited Baidu Health Medical Code. Academician Zhong Nanshan mentioned in the live broadcast that the new crown vaccine can be used as an emergency as early as this fall or the end of the year. Six vaccines in mainland China are already in clinical trials.

　　On June 6, two academicians, Zhong Nanshan and Li Lanjuan, visited the Baidu Health Medical Code. They made live broadcasts on topics such as the infectiousness of asymptomatic patients, the cure rate of new coronary pneumonia, group immunization, and subsequent follow-up prevention.
　　
During the live broadcast, academician Zhong Nanshan talked about when the new crown patients were the most infectious. He pointed out that droplets and contact were the definite source of infection. The infection was the most contagious 5 days before and 5 days after the onset of symptoms. Significantly decreased.
　　
When talking about "group immunization", Academician Zhong Nanshan pointed out that the group immunization proposed by some countries is a natural infection without any intervention, and gradually establishes the process of immunization. "To establish'group immunity', 60%-70% of the population must be infected. According to the mortality rate of the new coronary pneumonia, 6.95% of the world's deaths can gradually establish group immunity, which will probably cause 30-40 million deaths. That's too expensive! Therefore, this kind of "group immunity" is not feasible. If you want to establish "group immunity", you still have to rely on the research and development of vaccines. The new crown vaccine can be used as an emergency as early as this autumn or the end of the year. There are already 6 clinical trials in mainland China. in."
　　As for whether the asymptomatic infected person is really no sign, whether it is highly contagious, academician Li Lanjuan said that the asymptomatic infected person is less infectious than the early infected person, and many asymptomatic infected persons heal themselves after infection and do not cause strong Immune response.

"Asymptomatic people are also infectious, and they still need to be strictly isolated to prevent their spread to other people. The Chinese are still susceptible and can't relax their vigilance now."

http://tj.sina.com.cn/news/2020-06-0...&tj=none&tr=12

[Pathfinder]

Translation Google

Coronavirus: The situation is "getting worse" in the world, warns the World Health Organization

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that, in countries where the situation was improving, "the biggest threat is now to let go".

franceinfo with AFP
France Televisions
Updated 06/08/2020 | 9:06 p.m.
published on 06/08/2020 | 9:06 p.m.

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimated Monday, June 8 that the pandemic linked to the new coronavirus "worsened" in the world, warning against any slack. "Although the situation in Europe is improving, the world is getting worse," said WHO boss Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at a virtual press conference in Geneva.

"More than 100,000 new cases have been identified in 9 of the last 10 days. Yesterday, the toll rose to more than 136,000 new cases," the highest figure for a day, he added. He said that nearly 75% of new cases registered on Sunday were in 10 countries, mainly on the American continent and in South Asia.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that, in countries where the situation was improving, "the biggest threat is now letting go" , adding that "most people in the world are still susceptible to infection" . "We are six months since the start of the pandemic, it is not yet time to ease off," he insisted.

"Wear a mask if you are going to demonstrate"

About the wave of demonstrations triggered by the death of George Floyd , black man killed by a white policeman on May 25 in Minneapolis (United States), the boss of the WHO called to remain vigilant. "WHO fully supports equality demands and the global movement against racism. We reject any discrimination, " he said. But "we will encourage all those who demonstrate around the world to do so safely," he added.

"As much as possible, stay one meter from each other, wash your hands (...) and wear a mask if you are going to demonstrate" . "Stay at home if you are sick and contact a health service ," he said.
...

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/coronavirus-la-situation-s-aggrave-dans-le-monde-alerte-l-organisation-mondiale-de-la-sante_4001051.html

[sharon sanders]

Zhong Nanshan: The new crown vaccine is available at the earliest autumn or end of the year

2020-06-08 09:29 Tianjin Radio Review ( 1 participant)

A ⁺

　　On June 6, Academician Zhong Nanshan and Academician Li Lanjuan visited Baidu Health Medical Code. Academician Zhong Nanshan mentioned in the live broadcast that the new crown vaccine can be used as an emergency as early as this fall or the end of the year. Six vaccines in mainland China are already in clinical trials.

　　On June 6, two academicians, Zhong Nanshan and Li Lanjuan, visited the Baidu Health Medical Code. They made live broadcasts on topics such as the infectiousness of asymptomatic patients, the cure rate of new coronary pneumonia, group immunization, and subsequent follow-up prevention.
　　
During the live broadcast, academician Zhong Nanshan talked about when the new crown patients were the most infectious. He pointed out that droplets and contact were the definite source of infection. The infection was the most contagious 5 days before and 5 days after the onset of symptoms. Significantly decreased.
　　
When talking about "group immunization", Academician Zhong Nanshan pointed out that the group immunization proposed by some countries is a natural infection without any intervention, and gradually establishes the process of immunization. "To establish'group immunity', 60%-70% of the population must be infected. According to the mortality rate of the new coronary pneumonia, 6.95% of the world's deaths can gradually establish group immunity, which will probably cause 30-40 million deaths. That's too expensive! Therefore, this kind of "group immunity" is not feasible. If you want to establish "group immunity", you still have to rely on the research and development of vaccines. The new crown vaccine can be used as an emergency as early as this autumn or the end of the year. There are already 6 clinical trials in mainland China. in."
　　As for whether the asymptomatic infected person is really no sign, whether it is highly contagious, academician Li Lanjuan said that the asymptomatic infected person is less infectious than the early infected person, and many asymptomatic infected persons heal themselves after infection and do not cause strong Immune response.

"Asymptomatic people are also infectious, and they still need to be strictly isolated to prevent their spread to other people. The Chinese are still susceptible and can't relax their vigilance now."

http://tj.sina.com.cn/news/2020-06-0...&tj=none&tr=12

WHO Says It's 'Rare' for Asymptomatic Covid-19 Patients to Infect Others

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKtO4K71k7E

------------------------------

Directly conflicts with Dr. Nanshan.

So.......

[Emily]

I can't find :
Xu, L. 'The analysis of 6 patients with severe pneumonia caused by unknown viruses' Masters
thesis, Kunming Medical University, China, (2013).
5

6 miners in a batcave supposedly infected by a RaTG13-like virus, 3 died .
So, the new cleavage site in SARS2 may hve made it _less_ severe but more transmissable ?

https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202005.0322/v2

> The cause of the pneumonia was diagnosed to be primarily of a viral origin (related to bats)

how did they know viral origin, if not by sequencing ? They probably would have sequenced
them, wrt. all that SARS-research and the following extensive examinations of the mine
by the WIV resulting in 152 bat-sequences

Very good find, gsgs. This might be the paper you and Sharon were looking for. Hat tip to https://twitter.com/TheSeeker268/sta...60793985085442
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_Md...gCerK9Qsn/view

[Pathfinder]

Dr. Fauci voices concerns about coronavirus spreading amid nationwide protests

"Masks can help, but it's masks plus physical separation," Fauci said.

By
Morgan Winsor
June 10, 2020, 8:43 AM
...
That issue of physical separation "is important," according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a key member of the White House coronavirus task force.
...
"When you get congregations like we saw with the demonstrations," he continued, "that's taking a risk."

https://abcnews.go.com/US/dr-fauci-voices-concerns-coronavirus-spreading-amid-nationwide/story?id=71171103

-------------------------------------------------------------

Dr. Anthony Fauci says coronavirus can spread via asymptomatic people; calls COVID-19 ‘worst nightmare’

Today 9:27 AM

By Greg Pickel | gpickel@pennlive.com

Dr. Anthony Fauci is the latest medical professional to disagree with the World Health Organization after one of its key figures said that it’s “very rare” for asymptomatic people to spread the coronavirus.
...
“And we know from epidemiological studies they can transmit to someone who is uninfected even when they’re without symptoms. So to make a statement, to say that’s a rare event, was not correct."
...
In a different set of remarks, Fauci called the coronavirus his “worst nightmare” and said that the U.S. is only at the beginning of the deadly pandemic.
...
“Oh my goodness,” Fauci added. “Where is it going to end? We’re still at the beginning of really understanding.”

https://www.pennlive.com/coronavirus/2020/06/dr-anthony-fauci-says-coronavirus-can-spread-via-asymptomatic-people-calls-covid-19-worst-nightmare.html

[sharon sanders]

I went to my doctor today in the Orlando Florida area and they are going to require the employees wear goggles starting tomorrow. They already wear surgical masks.

[sharon sanders]

fyi - I went for a routine check-up. I do not have COVID-19.

[Gert van der Hoek]

That is good news!

I use an oximeter, easy check, if you are in doubt?

[Emily]

Dr. Fauci voices concerns about coronavirus spreading amid nationwide protests

"Masks can help, but it's masks plus physical separation," Fauci said.

By
Morgan Winsor
June 10, 2020, 8:43 AM
...
That issue of physical separation "is important," according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and a key member of the White House coronavirus task force.
...
"When you get congregations like we saw with the demonstrations," he continued, "that's taking a risk."

https://abcnews.go.com/US/dr-fauci-v...ry?id=71171103

-------------------------------------------------------------

Dr. Anthony Fauci says coronavirus can spread via asymptomatic people; calls COVID-19 ‘worst nightmare’

Today 9:27 AM

By Greg Pickel | gpickel@pennlive.com

Dr. Anthony Fauci is the latest medical professional to disagree with the World Health Organization after one of its key figures said that it’s “very rare” for asymptomatic people to spread the coronavirus.
...
“And we know from epidemiological studies they can transmit to someone who is uninfected even when they’re without symptoms. So to make a statement, to say that’s a rare event, was not correct."
...
In a different set of remarks, Fauci called the coronavirus his “worst nightmare” and said that the U.S. is only at the beginning of the deadly pandemic.
...
“Oh my goodness,” Fauci added. “Where is it going to end? We’re still at the beginning of really understanding.”

https://www.pennlive.com/coronavirus...nightmare.html

Does he have a doppelganger? Or is he being edited for the agenda of publishers. He sounds like a doomsday prophet in the pennlive article but in the next one he is calm & collected and put things in what sounds like a better grounded perspective to me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ma9SIElODdg

CNBC's Meg Tirrell interviews White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci about his outlook for the coronavirus pandemic in the United States. The question of whether to reopen schools in the fall has a “complicated answer” and the decision will depend on the coronavirus’ transmission in certain regions of the U.S., White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said on Friday. “It has to be a bit of a — and I don’t mean lengthwise — a bit of a complicated answer, because the United States is a large country,” he said during an interview Friday on CNBC’s “Halftime Report.” “When you’re talking about getting back to a degree of normality and school openings and things like that, it’s always related to the level of activity of the virus,” he said. For instance, the level of virus transmission near cities such as Casper, Wyoming, will likely be much different from that of other metropolitan areas, he said, and the decision to reopen schools shouldn’t be a “uni-dimensional judgment.” “There are varying degrees of infection activity depending upon the region, the state, the city, the town and the county,” he said. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said the number of cases has plateaued and is coming down as a nation overall. However, there are certain regions where there are blips in infections. “In general, things tend to be going in the right direction,” he said. “There are some areas that are doing better than others and others that are doing worse,” he said...

[sharon sanders]

On June 9, Wang Chen, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and president of Peking Union Medical College, analyzed the development trend of the epidemic.

He said that the new coronavirus should not be underestimated. It is easier to multiply and spread in the human body. This virus will not go away. There are many possibilities in the future.

The epidemic situation is relatively better in summer, and the fear must be kept deep in winter and autumn.

It is probably around January in Guangzhou and around March in Beijing. The virus seems to be easy to spread.

https://www.sohu.com/a/401072130_139908

[gsgs]

Very good find, gsgs. This might be the paper you and Sharon were looking for. Hat tip to https://twitter.com/TheSeeker268/sta...60793985085442
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_Md...gCerK9Qsn/view

thanks emily ! That's it . In Chinese with English abstract.
It should be translated and some medical person should examine it,
whether that looks like COVID.
SARS-like CoV was extracted from Rhinolophus sinicus in the mine ?!
But the mine-paper says 6 species and RaTG13 was in

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MN996532

Rhinolophus affinis. There are other issues with that sequence, contaminations,
not a fecal swab, collecting details.
identical to https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/KP876546

some translated snippets
> But still can’t leave the ventilator support
> It is fortunate to invite Zhongshan University
> The First Affiliated First Hospital Hospital Department of Aspiration Zhong Nanshan
> One patient entered the same mine to work in succession,
> The specific work is “Clean up a lot of bat droppings in the mine
> The main clinical symptoms of this patient were " cough , Sputum and fever",
>" Difficulty breathing , Sore limbs, bloody sputum and headache".
> Human sick bats have been recognized as "Chinese chrysanthemum bats"
> 4. Summary
> Based on the above examples and related literature, analyze this
> An unknown virus caused severe pneumonia , Consider
> Can It has been separated from the bat body of Zhonghua Ju
> Or "bats kind Caused by "Coronavirus".

apparently they couldn't/didn't do PCR = 聚合酶链反应 , I don't know why. They may still have frozen
tissue samples

---------------------------------------------------------------------
https://twitter.com/TheSeeker268/sta...59039297961989
Yeah but it turned out to be fungus so she lost interest. Or maybe not.
foul-smelling mushroom
removing slag from a derelict copper mine
One says probably viral and secondary aspergillosis. The other one says fungal
and secondary aspergillosis. But the clinical course mimics SARSCoV2.

[Gert van der Hoek]

11 JUNE 2020

Why do children avoid the worst coronavirus symptoms? The answer might lie in their arteries

Evidence is mounting that healthy blood vessels protect children from serious complications of COVID-19, such as stroke.

See also: Lancet - Endothelial cell infection and endotheliitis in COVID-19


So may be stop eating and drinking crap? Move more and go out into the sun? Get enough sleep? To save and heal your arteries?

[sharon sanders]

It is all over the US media that we are starting a 2nd wave because cases are up in some states. This is not true in my opinion.

We are seeing more cases because of more close contacts between people. This is a continuation of the 1st wave. We artificially suppressed the 1st wave by locking down society. The disease was not allowed to rampage through the population so there is still a lot of firewood left - and it is us.

Think about what you know about colds. When have you caught them generally? Your friends and family? Also, we have Saudi Arabia for an example with their MERS situation. Even if their case numbers are inaccurate there is a trend over a period of years where we can see what has happened. MERS never really goes away. There are less cases reported in the summer. Then it picks up again in the fall and goes throughout the winter. More or less.

As you have noticed by now - all of the experts disagree, papers conflict with each other, and even the large public health agencies do not have a consensus.

What I am saying is that increased cases now does not validate or invalidate the idea of future COVID-19 waves. We don't know anything for sure.

I am aware that some people think the COVID-19 outbreak is fake, or at least over hyped as a way to control the population. And there are some political views associated with this concept. In my opinion, not political, the COVID-19 pandemic is real - but why let a pandemic go to waste? As usual in most disease outbreaks, there is no shortage of people selling stuff and taking advantage. Especially in an election year.

Please try to stay sane.

So, again.....always use at least 2 sources and use your common sense.

[Emily]

I think that's a good analysis. There is no doubt that a novel coronavirus is causing clusters of severe pneumonia worldwide. I think we have some pandemic mass psychosis going on, too, thanks to news cycles and politics. This will continue.

[alert]

thanks emily ! That's it . In Chinese with English abstract.
It should be translated and some medical person should examine it,
whether that looks like COVID.
SARS-like CoV was extracted from Rhinolophus sinicus in the mine ?!
But the mine-paper says 6 species and RaTG13 was in

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MN996532

Rhinolophus affinis. There are other issues with that sequence, contaminations,
not a fecal swab, collecting details.
identical to https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/KP876546

some translated snippets
> But still can’t leave the ventilator support
> It is fortunate to invite Zhongshan University
> The First Affiliated First Hospital Hospital Department of Aspiration Zhong Nanshan
> One patient entered the same mine to work in succession,
> The specific work is “Clean up a lot of bat droppings in the mine
> The main clinical symptoms of this patient were " cough , Sputum and fever",
>" Difficulty breathing , Sore limbs, bloody sputum and headache".
> Human sick bats have been recognized as "Chinese chrysanthemum bats"
> 4. Summary
> Based on the above examples and related literature, analyze this
> An unknown virus caused severe pneumonia , Consider
> Can It has been separated from the bat body of Zhonghua Ju
> Or "bats kind Caused by "Coronavirus".

apparently they couldn't/didn't do PCR = 聚合酶链反应 , I don't know why. They may still have frozen
tissue samples

---------------------------------------------------------------------
https://twitter.com/TheSeeker268/sta...59039297961989
Yeah but it turned out to be fungus so she lost interest. Or maybe not.
foul-smelling mushroom
removing slag from a derelict copper mine
One says probably viral and secondary aspergillosis. The other one says fungal
and secondary aspergillosis. But the clinical course mimics SARSCoV2.

I believe the US CDC did a report on this in 2014 and believes the cause of this outbreak was a novel henipavirus named Mojang virus. While that would be alarming news, it would not be a coronavirus and would have nothing to do with the current pandemic:

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/20/6/13-1022_article

[Emily]

It looks like the CDC just published that article but the work was done by Chinese researchers. They found the henipavirus in rats, not the patients so just said it might be the cause. Shi's group found coronaviruses in bats in what looks like the same cave where the miners got sick. (From paper gsgs posted above: " TITLE Coexistence of multiple coronaviruses in several bat colonies in an abandoned mineshaft")

[Emily]

thanks emily ! That's it . In Chinese with English abstract.
It should be translated and some medical person should examine it,
whether that looks like COVID.
SARS-like CoV was extracted from Rhinolophus sinicus in the mine ?!
But the mine-paper says 6 species and RaTG13 was in

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MN996532

Rhinolophus affinis. There are other issues with that sequence, contaminations,
not a fecal swab, collecting details.
identical to https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/KP876546

some translated snippets
> But still can’t leave the ventilator support
> It is fortunate to invite Zhongshan University
> The First Affiliated First Hospital Hospital Department of Aspiration Zhong Nanshan
> One patient entered the same mine to work in succession,
> The specific work is “Clean up a lot of bat droppings in the mine
> The main clinical symptoms of this patient were " cough , Sputum and fever",
>" Difficulty breathing , Sore limbs, bloody sputum and headache".
> Human sick bats have been recognized as "Chinese chrysanthemum bats"
> 4. Summary
> Based on the above examples and related literature, analyze this
> An unknown virus caused severe pneumonia , Consider
> Can It has been separated from the bat body of Zhonghua Ju
> Or "bats kind Caused by "Coronavirus".

apparently they couldn't/didn't do PCR = 聚合酶链反应 , I don't know why. They may still have frozen
tissue samples

---------------------------------------------------------------------
https://twitter.com/TheSeeker268/sta...59039297961989
Yeah but it turned out to be fungus so she lost interest. Or maybe not.
foul-smelling mushroom
removing slag from a derelict copper mine
One says probably viral and secondary aspergillosis. The other one says fungal
and secondary aspergillosis. But the clinical course mimics SARSCoV2.

TheSeeker268 on Twitter posted a translation:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...SsYL5wZtg/edit

Here's the intro:

Coronavirus
Intensive care unit
table of Contents
Chinese Abstract
English summary
Comprehensive analysis
references
Articles published during degree study
Kunming Medical University Master Degree Thesis
Analysis of severe pneumonia caused by unknown virus
Graduate student: Li Xu
Tutor: Professor Qian Chuanyun
Department of Emergency Medicine, the First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University,
Summary
Years, months, and months, our hospital successively admitted patients with severe pneumonia caused by unknown viruses. this
The patients were all workers in the same mine and were exposed to a large number of bats and bat feces in the working environment. Final result
One patient died, and the other survived. According to the Kunming Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, this patient worker
The bat in the mine is the Chinese chrysanthemum, but in the process of searching for pathogens, Chinese scientists
A coronavirus was extracted from the Chinese chrysanthemum bat (. This article aims at cases
The diagnosis and treatment of unknown virus-associated severe pneumonia and the possible etiology and etiology of the person and analyse .
Keywords: severe pneumonia, bat, coronavirus
Kunming Medical University Master Degree Thesis

I think the mystery is that BtCoV/4991 may have been renamed RaTG13 after the pandemic started. Why distance the Wuhan lab virus from the cave where the miners got ill?
https://twitter.com/_coltseavers/sta...780354/photo/1

[gsgs]

they may have resorted/renamed their samples during the years.

they may have much more than they show.
E.g. this report from one researcher in Taiyi-Case 100km South of Wuhan
https://www.sixthtone.com/news/10023...ting-epidemics
And the bats from Zhangshan. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6135831/
There should be others from "civilized" places.
And probably they are busy searching since Jan....

[bertrand789]

Franchement, quand on voie le cas am?ricains, signal?, sur un chat, il y a bien plus ? esp?rer des autres , dont les chinois... Cela existe encore la science aux U.S.A en p?riode ?lectorale ?