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Re: H7N9 discussion thread: recent increase in cases, January 24, 2014+
The high number of H7N9 cases is a worrying signal but the world has decided to take the risk well ahead when the H5N1 was downgraded.
The Canadian nurse Death is only a reminder.
Mainstream media, journalists & flublogia should answer a certain number of questions:
1) Why does H5N1 suffer a such dramatic change in human epidemiology? Since a couple of years ago, dozens of confirmed & suspected cases were spotted in several countries, like Egypt and Indonesia; now, only very few of these cases are being reported;
2) How does H5N1 manage this sudden change in its zoonotic behaviour, causing little damage to poultry in endemic regions?
3) What kind of improvement in poultry farming has been achieved in disadvantaged countries like Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Indonesia and Egypt in order to avoid explosive animal outbreaks?
4) H7N9 caused so far at least 300 recognized human cases, but H5N1 may have caused also a lot of cases, although not in cluster or in community h2h transmission in the region where it is supposed to be endemic; is it possible for Nepal to have had hundreds of poultry outbreaks and not a single human case? The same thing is true for India & Bangladesh. What is the host determinant that make humans 'immune' to H5N1 in some regions?
5) A such dramatic change in zoonotic and epidemiological behaviour should be carefully investigated. It is important to understand the hidden mechanism of this switch from a universal scourge to a little bug of no importance.
6) H1N1pdm09 remained in swine population for decades before to start to rapidly change its genetic constellation until it reached the match an efficient for human spread. H5N1 - now fallen into oblivion - is doing the same: lurking and changing silently in animals and possibly human.
7) Is it safe to take as true the statements from endemic countries that no further human cases are being detected?
8) Are flublogia doing right to take this lull (?) in cases' detection as a sign that H5N1 was indeed a hype?
I want to make clear that I am not dismissing the H7N9 risk but H5N1 out there and wild suggest me an uneasy comfort...
The high number of H7N9 cases is a worrying signal but the world has decided to take the risk well ahead when the H5N1 was downgraded.
The Canadian nurse Death is only a reminder.
Mainstream media, journalists & flublogia should answer a certain number of questions:
1) Why does H5N1 suffer a such dramatic change in human epidemiology? Since a couple of years ago, dozens of confirmed & suspected cases were spotted in several countries, like Egypt and Indonesia; now, only very few of these cases are being reported;
2) How does H5N1 manage this sudden change in its zoonotic behaviour, causing little damage to poultry in endemic regions?
3) What kind of improvement in poultry farming has been achieved in disadvantaged countries like Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Indonesia and Egypt in order to avoid explosive animal outbreaks?
4) H7N9 caused so far at least 300 recognized human cases, but H5N1 may have caused also a lot of cases, although not in cluster or in community h2h transmission in the region where it is supposed to be endemic; is it possible for Nepal to have had hundreds of poultry outbreaks and not a single human case? The same thing is true for India & Bangladesh. What is the host determinant that make humans 'immune' to H5N1 in some regions?
5) A such dramatic change in zoonotic and epidemiological behaviour should be carefully investigated. It is important to understand the hidden mechanism of this switch from a universal scourge to a little bug of no importance.
6) H1N1pdm09 remained in swine population for decades before to start to rapidly change its genetic constellation until it reached the match an efficient for human spread. H5N1 - now fallen into oblivion - is doing the same: lurking and changing silently in animals and possibly human.
7) Is it safe to take as true the statements from endemic countries that no further human cases are being detected?
8) Are flublogia doing right to take this lull (?) in cases' detection as a sign that H5N1 was indeed a hype?
I want to make clear that I am not dismissing the H7N9 risk but H5N1 out there and wild suggest me an uneasy comfort...
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