Scientists starting to believe swine flu outbreak won't be so bad

[pablomorgan]

Researchers are rushing to understand the H1N1 swine flu virus and its future impact.

Despite the growing number of infections globally, the World Health Organization said Thursday said the situation hasn't changed fundamentally since the alert level was increased to five yesterday.

Scientists are starting to believe this virus won't kill the tens of millions of people many expected from the next pandemic.

"We do not have any evidence to suggest that we should move to phase six today, or any such move is imminent right now," said Dr. Keiji Fukuda, WHO's acting assistant director-general for health security and environment.

To reach level six, a declared pandemic, the virus would need to spread into the community in one country outside of North America.

"Certainly from what we're seeing now, it doesn't seem to be the scary virus of 1918 that we were predicting would be the next pandemic, or that we were preparing for anyway, which is the good news," said Dr. Todd Hatchette, director of virology and immunology at Dalhousie University in Halifax.

Researchers are studying the virus to learn how efficiently it spreads and to see if it mutates, knowing the more it circulates in the population, the greater the chances it will change.

If it becomes more virulent, public health agencies in North America are better prepared now than ever, said Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, and a member of the U.S. National Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity.

Supply chains vulnerable
But Osterholm is worried about how infections could affect developing and densely populated countries that supply many lifesaving drugs such as insulin and heart medications to North Americans.

"Most of those are generic drugs and they're made in countries like India and China," Osterholm said. "The supply chains are very thin, very vulnerable to any disruption, whether it be border closings or even widespread illness in those countries where they're made."

So far, pharmaceutical companies in India and China have said they are ready to ramp up production of antiviral drugs if needed.

Work also continues on developing a vaccine.

Once that happens, likely in late fall or early winter, Canada will be in better shape than many other countries since there is a vaccine manufacturing facility in Quebec and a deal with its own, GlaxoSmithKline, that guarantees supply for Canadians.

http://www.cbc.ca/health/story/2009/04/30/swine-flu-research.html

[Lurker]

Re: Scientists starting to believe swine flu outbreak won't be so bad

Isn't this what happened with the 1918 flu? I heard it was a mild, end of flu season flu. No one was alarmed and didn't even think it was flu. There was a quite summer, then wham. It hit in the fall (new flu season) to go on and do the most damage.

How is this different thus far? How can they say this?

[KC]

Re: Scientists starting to believe swine flu outbreak won't be so bad

Scientists are starting to believe this virus won't kill the tens of millions of people many expected from the next pandemic.

Can anyone tell me of a researcher, clinician, virologist, or other specialist who went on the record expecting death in "tens of millions" in this potential pandemic?

[GaudiaRay]

Re: Scientists starting to believe swine flu outbreak won't be so bad

The Russian, and Niman...a billion, about 6 years ago, for H5N1 Gone Wild.

I reached the same conclusion. This malarky talk about how we're so first world 21st Century ready is poppycock. The moment there's panic, the infrastructure is "out". They keep looking at 1918 as the most severe case.
Malarky.

A great insight came to me in 2005. A poster at curevents.com posted that most people were delusional. They expected the virus' virulence to be just under or at their level of preparation.

Step away from the kool aid, and think about this. It's not stable.

When scientists grow up to think proactively (mere speculation), then we're gonna be okay. That will take a while, and a flu stick that will break some heads.

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Scientists starting to believe swine flu outbreak won't be so bad

Referring to H5N1 staying intact if it went H2H (worst case scenerio), Robert Webster said in 2006:

"Society just can't accept the idea that 50 percent of the population could die. And I think we have to face that possibility," Webster said. "I'm sorry if I'm making people a little frightened, but I feel it's my role."


Most scientists won't put it that bluntly, but many acknowledge that Webster could be right about the flu becoming transmissible among humans, even though they believe the 50 percent figure could be too high.

See http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2401

As Mamabird said after reviewing SF sequences, we should be thankful this SF doesn't carry the polybasic cleavage site like H5N1 - a major contributor to it's lethality.

Again - he was NOT talking about this current swine flu.

.

[tropical]

Re: Scientists starting to believe swine flu outbreak won't be so bad

Can anyone tell me of a researcher, clinician, virologist, or other specialist who went on the record expecting death in "tens of millions" in this potential pandemic?

#1: "... the more the circulation ... the greather the chances ..."

Give it more time ...

and remember the law enforcements made in the emergency laws citations about.

[gsgs]

Re: Scientists starting to believe swine flu outbreak won't be so bad

CFR = 0.1% estimated by prof. Kekule at stern.de some days ago

are there other expert-estimates ?

[Vibrant62]

Re: Scientists starting to believe swine flu outbreak won't be so bad

A professor interviewed on Channel 4 news (female but did not catch her name) put a 1% CFR figure guestimate, but I do not know what facts she based her data on.

[HenryN]

Re: Scientists starting to believe swine flu outbreak won't be so bad

The problem with the current "predictors" is a FUNDAMENTAL misunderstanding of how influenza evolves. 1918 was a clear swine H1N1/human H1N1 recombinant. All 8 genes were about a 50/50 mix with multiple cross overs.

To get recombination with multiple crossovers, you take a swine H1N1, like the one spreading across the globe, and put it in a human host, where it can interact with human H1N1. It then selects the human polymorphisms that increase its ability to spread and replicate in a human host.

The last time a swine H1N1 jumped to humans was 1918.

This version has already started picking up human polymorphisms at key positions, which is the likely reason why it can now go H2H.

One of the positions is 129 (the same position deleted in H5N1 in Egypt), where it has changed from N to S, and a subset has changed the adjacent position from S to P. Both of these changes are in human H1N1.

[tropical]

Re: Scientists starting to believe swine flu outbreak won't be so bad

A professor interviewed on Channel 4 news (female but did not catch her name) put a 1% CFR figure guestimate, but I do not know what facts she based her data on.

First we must have at least 100.000 cases.

At the same time all the news reported potential death cases divertions at the field must be previously rechecked, and inserted if neccessary.

Than it could be extracted the pattern of how elevated is the CFR percent.

Do we have time to waste for making such waitings for conclusions?

No, we must act blind like, and with the worst presumption (as Napolit. and the others said), as an serious pandemic, with an possible variable pattern of illness.

If we do over-measures now, we would be more spared than minimizing it.

If later came out it vanish, fade, or remained low profile, we can said we acted preemptive.

As such policy was implemented at the begining, maybe it could be stopped.

[vinny]

Re: Scientists starting to believe swine flu outbreak won't be so bad

Is it possible that because the scientists keep telling us this will be a mild virus,that WHO may lower there alert level back to 3.

[tropical]

Re: Scientists starting to believe swine flu outbreak won't be so bad

Is it possible that because the scientists keep telling us this will be a mild virus,that WHO may lower there alert level back to 3.

Mild or not, it is a pandemic now, so it must remain 5, or later 6.

The picture of an number is irelevant.
The important thing is how it evolve.

If indeed it, scientificaly speaking, lowering, or have an mild aset but without deadly pneumonias or dyeing because of breathing dificulties, hart problems, than welcome, lower the number and proclame it.

But if it is deadly, fast spreading even where it now seems it is not present, the comunity can't sheld us from it, than downplaying the illness, or fictively mantaining an low number and countermeasures, would mean contributing to the spreading, and an zero evaluation of the lives of the ones who did not know or understand the danger, an outrageous behaviour.

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Scientists starting to believe swine flu outbreak won't be so bad

Is it possible that because the scientists keep telling us this will be a mild virus,that WHO may lower there alert level back to 3.

No - the number of cases is NOT apt to decrease for some time.

.

[AlaskaDenise]

Re: Scientists starting to believe swine flu outbreak won't be so bad

......One of the positions is 129 (the same position deleted in H5N1 in Egypt), where it has changed from N to S, and a subset has changed the adjacent position from S to P. Both of these changes are in human H1N1.

for newcomers - what function does 129 serve?

.

[Shiloh]

Re: Scientists starting to believe swine flu outbreak won't be so bad

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8028371.stm

Mexico shuts down to control flu
Emma Wilkinson
Health reporter, BBC News

Preliminary analysis of the swine flu virus suggests it is a fairly mild strain, scientists say.

It is believed that a further mutation would be needed in order for the H1N1 virus to cause the mass deaths that have been estimated by some.

But at this point, it is impossible to predict with any accuracy how the virus will continue to evolve.

UK experts at the National Institute for Medical Research will outline on Friday the work they are due to start on samples of the virus sent from the US.

The research, being done at the World Influenza Centre in Mill Hill, will be vital for working out the structure of the virus, where it came from, how quickly it is capable of spreading and its potential to cause illness.

Structure

Analysis done so far suggests what they are dealing with is a mild virus and nowhere near as dangerous as the H5N1 avian flu strain that has caused scientists so much concern over the past decade.

Influenza A viruses are classified according to two proteins on the outer surface of the virus - hemagglutinin (H) and neuraminidase (N).

The swine flu strain is a H1N1 virus, the same type as seasonal flu which circulates throughout the world every year, and kills roughly 1% of those infected.

Professor Wendy Barclay, chair in influenza virology at Imperial College London says initial indications suggest there is nothing about the genetic make-up of the new virus which is a cause for particular concern.

The key to its potential lies largely in the H1 protein.

"There are two aspects - one is which receptors the virus tends to bind to and what we see is that it is binding to the upper respiratory tract rather than deep in the lungs."

When a flu virus binds to the upper respiratory tract, it tends to cause mild illness but can be easily spread as people cough and sneeze, Professor Barclay explains.

If a virus binds further down in the lungs, it tends to cause much more severe illness, as in the case of the H5N1 avian flu virus which has caused concern in recent years.

"With the H1 gene we also look at the cleavage site," she adds.

"The virus has to be cut into two pieces to be active and it uses an enzyme in the host to do that.

"Most influenza viruses are restricted to the respiratory tract because they use enzymes in the lungs.

"But some, like H5 viruses can evolve to cut into two pieces outside the lungs, so they can replicate outside the respiratory tract."

Analysis

These initial indications are largely guesswork from looking at the genetic sequence of the virus and comparing that to what is known from work on other influenza viruses.

It will take weeks and months of biological analysis to properly get a handle on the potential of the H1N1 virus.

The team at Mill Hill, one of four World Health Organisation's centres for influenza research will be working in close collaboration with the Health Protection Agency who are carrying out testing in the UK, and their findings will also feed into the development of a potential vaccine.

Soon, the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute in Cambridge will begin the genetic sequencing of the virus and will also be monitoring any mutations or changes in how virulent it is.

However, there is one other reassuring aspect about what is known so far.

That is there seems to be nothing unusual as yet in another protein in the centre of the virus, called NS1, which is linked to the strength of the immune response the virus produces.

In some more pathogenic viruses, it is this NS1 protein which initiates a "cytokine storm", a particularly severe immune reaction that can be fatal in even healthy young people.

Predictions

Scientists have also played down concerns that the milder H1N1 virus, could combine with the more dangerous H5N1 avian flu virus, causing a super virus that has the ability to both spread easily between humans and cause severe illness.

This is unlikely - or at least just as unlikely as it ever was and the H5N1 virus has been around for a decade without combining with normal seasonal flu.

Professor Jonathan Ball, an expert in molecular virology at the University of Nottingham said: "The chance of swine H1N1 combining with H5N1 is as likely as any other strain recombining.

"What this outbreak does highlight is how difficult it is to predict new pandemic strains.

"Many people suspected that H5N1 was the most likely candidate for the next pandemic strain, but now it appears that this was a mistake - but that's not to say H5N1 or another reassortment containing parts of H5N1 may not happen in the future.

"That's the trouble - you can't predict."