Scientists starting to believe swine flu outbreak won't be so bad

[tropical]

Re: Scientists starting to believe swine flu outbreak won't be so bad

I think that we can make enaugh "reasonable doubts" that this statement is erroneous, and missleading in an pandemic phase 5 (now 6 - because of more EU cases):

The swine flu strain is a H1N1 virus, the same type as seasonal flu which circulates throughout the world every year, and kills roughly 1% of those infected.

and it must be corrected.


About the reporter text, it insert supposed statements of indeed big scientific names.

And we believe to the scientific releases MAINLY, BUT,
I remember that some big scientists says that there will be not any contaminations to eat the meat of the "mad cow" diseased cows.

Based on this reccomendations, such meat were used by the population, UNTIL it cames out the prion story, and I'm decades later watch the same scientist video where he admited it wasn't right, that he believe to be right at the time because many now note scientific facts were not note.

Now, I hope that this scientists are right.

But, reading this text, which is not wroted from the cited scientists in an sci. pub., but from a health reporter, looking better, they state at the same time that this are mostly guesses, to be corroborated by now starting studies, after few months.

Maybe we all haven't few months if we are into the yearly 1% of possible dying from seasonal flu as this text state.

But the text have some glitches.

Months ago we watch the suppositions of an pandemic event as:
light, mild or serious.

Only in the visure of the ones beleaving that serious means 2,5% CFR as the 1918 one, mild could be 1%.

The ones who contemplating that serious pandemic could mean it would have CFR of 30%, or more, the mild could be 15% CFR or more.

So, if the actual pandemic is mild, this don't neccessary mean that it would have 1% CFR as seasonal flu which seems to be wroted in this text.

And even if the CFR would be finaly 1%, don't forget that MANY people TAKE the seasonal vaccine, which is NOW UNEXISTANT - NO VACCINES for this virus for the non VIP/somebody stil will get it this weeks (cell technology, etc.) because some prototipe vaccine versions obviously would be prepared.

Finaly, making statements that an novel pandemic virus would mantain an seasonal flu CFR and remain mild, when it only starts from a month and did not reach full blown, is downplaying.



Highlights (red and underlined):
__________________________________________________ ___________

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/8028371.stm

Mexico shuts down to control flu
Emma Wilkinson
Health reporter, BBC News

Preliminary analysis of the swine flu virus suggests it is a fairly mild strain, scientists say.

It is believed that a further mutation would be needed in order for the H1N1 virus to cause the mass deaths that have been estimated by some.

But at this point, it is impossible to predict with any accuracy how the virus will continue to evolve.
...
The research, being done at the World Influenza Centre in Mill Hill, will be vital for working out the structure of the virus, where it came from, how quickly it is capable of spreading and its potential to cause illness.

Structure

Analysis done so far suggests what they are dealing with is a mild virus and nowhere near as dangerous as the H5N1 avian flu strain that has caused scientists so much concern over the past decade.

The swine flu strain is a H1N1 virus, the same type as seasonal flu which circulates throughout the world every year, and kills roughly 1% of those infected.

Professor Wendy Barclay, chair in influenza virology at Imperial College London says initial indications suggest there is nothing about the genetic make-up of the new virus which is a cause for particular concern.

The key to its potential lies largely in the H1 protein.

"There are two aspects - one is which receptors the virus tends to bind to and what we see is that it is binding to the upper respiratory tract rather than deep in the lungs."

When a flu virus binds to the upper respiratory tract, it tends to cause mild illness but can be easily spread as people cough and sneeze, Professor Barclay explains.

If a virus binds further down in the lungs, it tends to cause much more severe illness, as in the case of the H5N1 avian flu virus which has caused concern in recent years.

"With the H1 gene we also look at the cleavage site," she adds.

"The virus has to be cut into two pieces to be active and it uses an enzyme in the host to do that.

"Most influenza viruses are restricted to the respiratory tract because they use enzymes in the lungs.

"But some, like H5 viruses can evolve to cut into two pieces outside the lungs, so they can replicate outside the respiratory tract."

Analysis

These initial indications are largely guesswork from looking at the genetic sequence of the virus and comparing that to what is known from work on other influenza viruses.

It will take weeks and months of biological analysis to properly get a handle on the potential of the H1N1 virus.
...
Soon, the Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute in Cambridge will begin the genetic sequencing of the virus and will also be monitoring any mutations or changes in how virulent it is.

However, there is one other reassuring aspect about what is known so far.

That is there seems to be nothing unusual as yet in another protein in the centre of the virus, called NS1, which is linked to the strength of the immune response the virus produces.

In some more pathogenic viruses, it is this NS1 protein which initiates a "cytokine storm", a particularly severe immune reaction that can be fatal in even healthy young people.

Predictions

Scientists have also played down concerns that the milder H1N1 virus, could combine with the more dangerous H5N1 avian flu virus, causing a super virus that has the ability to both spread easily between humans and cause severe illness.

This is unlikely - or at least just as unlikely as it ever was and the H5N1 virus has been around for a decade without combining with normal seasonal flu.

Professor Jonathan Ball, an expert in molecular virology at the University of Nottingham said: "The chance of swine H1N1 combining with H5N1 is as likely as any other strain recombining.

"What this outbreak does highlight is how difficult it is to predict new pandemic strains.

"Many people suspected that H5N1 was the most likely candidate for the next pandemic strain, but now it appears that this was a mistake - but that's not to say H5N1 or another reassortment containing parts of H5N1 may not happen in the future.

"That's the trouble - you can't predict."

[Lurker]

Re: Scientists starting to believe swine flu outbreak won't be so bad

This reminds me of the probability of screwing up when you practice medicine. If 100 patients age 35 present with chest pain, any physician is going to have a 95-100% chance of avoiding a bad diagnosis when they send the patient home with reflux meds. To put it another way, I think the press/gov is taking their chances that this will fizzle out or be mild. So they are sending us home with reflux/Tylenol meds. Let's hope this isn't the heart attack.