Opinion: RedState Blog

[KC]

The 1918 pandemic had an estimated infection rate of about 20+% and a mortality rate of 5%.

Most researchers are saying H5N1 is similair to H1N1 but is far more pathonogenic.

The "Median worst-case US mortality forecast" is missing some very important variables for it to be useful for me. I don't know what the variables are but I would consider it to be how contagious is the emerging pandemic and what is the rate of mortality.

If we are going to compare the viruses, we would use the current data since it is all we have..... but that would scare the hell out of people.

U.S. Population = 295,734,134 people (July 2005, CIA World Fact Book)
20% Infected = 59,146,827 people
Current Death Rate around 60% = 35,488,096 deaths / far more than six million.

If you used the Spanish Flu death rate of 5% = 2,957,341 deaths / over half of the amount of the projected mortality rate of the Carnegie-Mellon Conference experts.

Now, lets say that only 2% of the United States got avian flu..... that would be 5,914,683 people..... lets keep the high end value on mortality from the current strains (60%).. that would mean a mortality amount of 3,548,810 people.

The basics are.... until we know the how the pandemic emerges in each wave, we will not be able to calculate a mortality or infection rate.

x value is the population

y value is the infection rate

z value is the mortality percentage

The "experts at Carnegie Mellon" can assume to know the y and z values... but these are only models that have not been proven.... We all know what it means to ASS.U.M.E.

Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.... Anything less is a deathnell.... Something survivors don't look at. I strongly dislike scientists who low ball potentials when it comes to statistics. It is a disservice to all.

[Mellie]

Re: Opinion: RedState Blog

Gee you sound like a firefighter! haw haw!

Welcome to flutrackers!

[KC]

Re: Opinion: RedState Blog

I sat all day in class pondering how the "expert" forecasts could be so different than mine.... you can see where my attention is directed.... away from firefighting and directed towards research and discovery. I am a student and I am learning every day one way or the other. Today, I was learning where some of my statistics could be possibly screwed up and how to clean up my research.

I forgot two other sub-variables that might need to be considered within the "x and y" for an accurate mortality forecast. Those sub-variables are: 1) The rates that the emerging strain infects each age sub-group (ie- 0-5 years, 6-15 years, 16-25 years,... 56-65, 66-75 etc....) and 2) the mortality rate for each age sub-grouping. Then another variable..... the percentages of each of these age sug-groups represented in the population.

With that said, the death rates "could" be much lower and more in line with some expert predictions.

The scariest part of the predictions (no matter how they are calculated) are that the majority of the deaths would be in our youngest folks who are within child bearing age due to cytokine storm and rate of infection. This could cause exponential problems in the future.

[KC]

Re: Opinion: RedState Blog: Be careful of what you say and do

You have to get a kick out of how politics can derail educated thinking and decision making......

There are currently 22 different bills or mentions on thomas.loc.gov about avian flu and pending avian flu legislation. Thomas is the source for avian flu legislation in the United States.

It is intersting to see that the bills (for the most part) aren't concentrating on partisan politics or whether it is a "blue" or "red" state issue. Most bills have a good bi-partisan support.

It is interesting to see how one person who has political agendas can derail preparedness and preparations and cause their peers to shreak and return back to political safety and stall ALL the avian flu legislation. (H.RES.687.LTH)

That person, by only speaking and trying for political gains, has set back pandemic flu preparedness and response by eons.

She turned it into a political debate and not a factual debate on the issue...

She said, "Whereas in this ongoing pattern of abuse of power, the Republican Leadership on December 17, 2005, deliberately misled Members of the House by inserting into a completed conference report without debate or notification a provision granting liability protection for drug companies from cases involving consumers injured by avian flu vaccine (HR 2863, the Defense Appropriations Conference Report);"

She also said. "Whereas the Republican Leadership inserted this liability vaccine provision at midnight, after conferees signed what they understood to be the final document seven hours earlier, thereby breaking their word and assurances that `Avian Flu shall be funded at the House level, and will not include either indemnity or compensation provisions.' (House Appropriations Committee Summary, December 17, 2005, 4:40 p.m.);"

She lost the "Commanders Intent".... in this case, the commander is the public.

Because of her political posturing, it derailed legislation that would have provided research and preparation dollars in over 5 different congressional bills. Instead, it was a thought that hasn't gained any other co-sponsors.....

Out of 434 other elected Congressional officals, she was the only one who spoke up and concentrated on politics and lost focus on the original issue. She sponsored a resolution that used the "avian flu" as a trump card. She demonized the efforts of her peers....

In regards to avian flu preparation and preparedness, an artificial partisan political divide has been created. They are unfortunately "violently agreeing" that something must be done, but are deadlocked on personal and partisan agendas.

Avian flu research, preparation, preparedness, and response is not a political issue...... It is a common sense issue that all elected officials should be listening to their constituents on. It isn't a "red" or "blue" issue and only facts should matter. Politics shouldn't hijack common sense and facts. If someone makes it a political issue, red or blue, they need to be kicked to the curb and a new leader elected.